Key industry and market indicators for july 2015 canada and north america

Canada Economy Overview for
July 2015 – Trends and Policies
Analysis
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

Commentary
• There is allot said about the economy and mostly the saying the economy is terrible shape Here are key information on economy:
• Housing Starts
• Retail sales
• Employment
CME Quote:
• Quotes from CME “ The release of GDP figures for April suggest that a recession may be inevitable in 2015. Even though the Canadian
economy shrank by a relatively modest 0.1 per cent compared to March, April also marked the fifth decline in economic output in the past
six months. Barring any significant revisions to April’s figures, the Canadian economy will have to grow at a rate of 0.3 per cent in both May
and June, just to avoid a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
• The silver lining, if one can call it that, is that the economic contraction in April was largely due to a series of wildfires across Alberta,
causing significant supply disruptions in the oil patch and driving the Canadian economy into negative territory. GDP in the mining, oil and
gas sector fell by 2.6 per cent in April – by far the largest decrease of any major economic sector. Were it not for that decrease in energy
output, the Canadian economy would have grown by 0.2 per cent in April. Unfortunately, the threat has not abated since April as hot, dry
weather, thunderstorms and relatively little rain are contributing to one of the worst years in recent memory for wildfires across western
Canada.”

CommentaryQuote from Scotia Bank “
• Employment
• “Canada has created 102,000 jobs since the start of the year and almost 200,000 jobs over the past year during which oil prices slid. The
unemployment rate lags recessions but employment losses are usually fairly coincidental to falling GDP. A large disconnect has now emerged
between the measures (chart 1). Will a trend toward job losses arise in future? Maybe, but during past periods of sharp oil price declines we
would have seen a jobs hit by now (chart 2). The rate debate should wait for at least several months to see if this happens.
• Housing Market / Retail Sales
• “Housing markets remain on fire. House prices are climbing to new alltime record highs (+8% y/y across Canada; 7% in Toronto and 11% in
Vancouver) and home sales continue to climb higher and higher. Vehicle sales are trending at elevated heights. Retail sales volumes have
been volatile since December but the trend is resilient.”
• Source:
• http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-industry-and-market-indicators-for-june-2015-canada-and-north-america
• http://mb.cme-mec.ca/?lid=YXN82-W3NF7-IC132&comaction=show&cid=RDWV3-7B5SP-FDEX3
• Scotia Bank - http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/cmsr150709.pdf
• There are risks to Canada due to following issues:
• Lower oil prices
• Softness in China
• Softness in Europe
• Canada still exports about 75% of its good to the USA. USA economic is projected to pick up the pace in 3rd and 4th Quarter -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-unexpected-investment-predictions-for-the-second-half-of-2015-2015-07-02

Stats Canada – Trade Comments

Canadian Manufacturing Analysis

Canada Manufacturing – June 2015 -
ScotiaBank

Labor Analysis - Canada
• Employment – All I see from your comments is opinion and no facts.
It seems you call me a troll, right? The only reason people call me a
troll is they cannot defend their opinion with facts, right? Let me
crunch a few things based on the below links –
• Since 2010 there has been 722K full-time jobs and 118K part-time jobs
created in Canada. So, 86% of the new jobs are full-time. So, where is the 80%
number you quoting coming from in terms of its accuracy?
• The main sector of growth are the following sectors
• Accommodation/food services approximately 98K
• Healthcare approximately 249K – this ties to more money being spent on healthcare by
provinces to support need for additional services
• Professional jobs approximately 170K
• Construction approximately 220K – does this not benefit skill trades and tied to the
housing market being solid in Canada

Labor Analysis - Canada
• Summary:
• The bulk of jobs are in areas that pay good salaries. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-
tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labor93a-eng.htm. The only sector that would see the bulk of
minimum wage would be accommodation/services.
• Food/Services jobs are created due to people spending money on meals and entertainment
and travel - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad15a-eng.htm
or https://www.restaurantscanada.org/Portals/0/Non-
Member/2015/restaurantoutlooksurvey_2015_q1.pdf
• Source: http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/13-11-
05/which_industries_are_creating_jobs.aspx
• http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/13-11-
05/which_industries_are_creating_jobs.aspx
• http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ10-eng.htm

Foresty Sector
• www.parl.gc.ca/Content/HOC/Committee/412/RNNR/Reports/RP804
6840/412_RNNR_Rpt13_PDF/412_RNNR_Rpt13-e.pdf

Quebec Government / Security Audits

Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing

Manufacturing organization / Medium

• Mulcair’s comment –
• Medium and Large companies would not qualified for the tax cuts
and in fact would see their taxes increased.

• Medium are those entities that are $10M and up to $50M. The average medium sales value is $34M. This market segment would be
ignored by Mulcair – “Over one third (37%) of mid-sized firms’ head offices are in Ontario, followed by 27% in Quebec, 19% in the Prairies,
12% in British Columbia and 6% in the Atlantic region. The top five sector in which they are active include: manufacturing (18%); retail
(16%); business services (14%); accommodation and food services (13%); and construction (8%)

• Mulcair seems to be spinning his wheels as factors that drive business investment are controlled by the provinces, i.e. Hydro Rates,
Regulations, new taxes (ORPP, Carbon Pricing, etc.). So, how is mulcair going to deal with local issues facing business? It seems Mulcair
did not read the OCC report on hydro rates -

Manufacturing – NDP Comments
• NDP Supporter, Here is simple question for you "Defend Mulcair's policies to where the private sector supports the hiking of taxes". It is
simple request that to this date has not been defended with any valid links from the Chamber of Commerce or CFIB or CAPP or CME or
other trade/business association. It seems to me that Mulcair is the one that is inconsistent with his comments. Right? Mulcair tells unions
he hates corporate welfare, right? http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-targets-freeloader-corporations-in-speech-to-teamsters-
1.2774959.
•
• Mulcair then tells he supports manufacturing, right? http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-champions-manufacturing-cambridge. Mulcair
claims small business create the manufacturing jobs, right? Yet the facts show only about 1/3 of manufacturers are small business, right?
NDP approach is too narrow as you support hiking corporate tax up to 22% for medium to large corporation and reducing small business tax
by 2% over two years. Where is your analysis to support this will help small business - https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/vwapj/KSBS-
PSRPE_July-Juillet2012_eng.pdf/$FILE/KSBS-PSRPE_July-Juillet2012_eng.pdf?

• Jason Myers who is CEO for CME has said Harper’s policies continue to support manufacturing, but no comment on what Mulcair would
keep in terms of Harper’s policies, right? http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=X4NX7-
CPP8J-8EJNG. FYI – There are already programs that provide seed money that are similar to innovation credit, but Mulcair appears on
surface that he will rebrand those policies as NDP.
• Green Technology - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-policy-analysis-green-technology-canadaa
• Government Programs - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada
•
• Jason Myers (CME) and others have called out Mulcair for his inconsistency with corporate tax http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-
1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8 or http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-
corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/. So, are these comments lies and if so then defend why these comments are lies. All I have seen
is people say “Mulcair will look at average rates with OECD”, but little else in statement. The fact is Canada ranking overall for taxation is 23
within OECD, but Mulcair never mention this ranking, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada-
44675640
•

• I have worked for many years with all aspect of business including manufacturing as such have a good understanding of the issues facing
business. Business will tell Mulcair the world is very competitive and what they do not want from a government is more taxes, red tape,
higher hydro rates, etc. Business will also tell you their main issues are input costs, access to capital, productivity, access to markets, and
quality workers. There is very little in Mulcair’s statements that support any of those areas, especially productivity since that would mean
working with union on automation and/or improvements with manufacturing process to help streamline production processes. BTW: When
has union work with a business to automate the business as a way to help it compete? Unifor seems to support ORPP, but says little how
the cost burden would hurt the small business owner with a tax increase - http://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/press-room/ontario-push-
broad-orpp CFIB has said ORPP will hurt small business - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5860-provincial-pension-plan-an-attack-on-
small-business.html. So, who is lying? Is Mulcair/Unifor telling the truth or Is CFIB telling the truth? It seems to me business said they do
support retirement options including pooling plans - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/3923-pooled-registered-pension-plans-
prpps.html. Yet, no comment from Mulcair, why? Mulcair did say he supports changes to CPP, right?
http://www.carp.ca/2015/05/28/mandatory-cpp-contributions-are-the-way-to-go-say-both-trudeau-and-mulcair/. How is CPP funded? It is
funded by payroll taxes? So, hiking CPP would be tax to business so how is this not hurting the small business sector?
•
• Mulcair also mention “Dutch Disease - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/is-canada-suffering-from-dutch-disease-1.1140014” that was
playing into Quebec and Ontario way to blame the whole manufacturing issues on a high dollar and not areas like hydro rates
“http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ontario-businesses-call-on-province-to-curb-rising-electricity-prices-1.3142255. So, who is right? Is the
Chamber of Commerce wrong? Mulcair never mention how metal fabricators companies as well as other provinces have benefit from the
oil sands, why? http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2012/07/ontario-manufacturers-retool-to-take-advantage-of-a-prairie-energy-boom/.
So, who is lying about benefits of oil sands?
•
• NDP supporters are entitled to vote for who they want as PM, but to say Mulcair is “Pro manufacturing” is fallacy! If you think I am wrong
then prove me wrong which have never happen on Mulcair’s page or with his various MP/candidates.

Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)
• It is too bad that both Ontario and PQ have drove out business or they would be bigger parts of the economic growth in Canada! Ontario
should be 3-4% growth and not 2.2%! http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/focus/20150313/feature.pdf . Wait till Ontario
taxpayers get the full brunt of ORPP and the carbon tax!!
• Volvo used to make graders in Goderich back in 2008 and then moved the production to South Carolina
(http://www.thestar.com/business/2008/10/01/volvo_plant_closure_takes_toll_on_goderich.html). One would have to think if the
fundamentals were stronger in Ontario then would Volvo have left Ontario or would have considered Ontario for more investment?
http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/volvo-chooses-south-carolina-for-us500m-assembly-plant-
147824/?utm_source=CMO&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CMO-EN05112015
• NDP under Mulcair seems to not understand the constitution – 92A – I suggest you check out comments from Peter Julian, Nathan Cullen,
Megan Leslie, Niki Ashton, Mulcair, etc. It seems to me they NDP blames MFG losses solely on Harper, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9M64cHqtx8 . Yet, no comment on Butts’ statement -
http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank
or http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8

Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• Source:
• Ontario Exports lack capacity - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/19/ontario-manufacturers-key-to-recovery/.
• Debt Rating - http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/07/06/sp-downgrades-ontario.html
• Ontario (ORPP) - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/12/jack-mintz-ontarios-really-bad-pension-scheme/ or http://www.cfib-
fcei.ca/english/article/6406-ontario-budget-reissued.html
• Carbon Taxes - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-18/british-columbia-to-outline-carbon-tax-policies-for-lng.html what is also not
being said is the tax credits that were brought in as part of buffering the impact of the carbon tax, like lowering personal and corporate
taxes or tax credits for entertainment industries, or the areas. The BC government also introduced as specific tax for LNG as way to bring in
revenue and to take advantage of growth in LNG. The problem in Ontario is the tax likely will not have much tax credits. Wynne is desperate
for money as such will push the carbon tax as tax grab masked as helping the environment. BTW: Ontario has no coal generation as that has
been eliminated. Ontario will see costs go up by 3% on top other taxes like ORPP or hikes in hydro rates or other areas. Ontario is becoming
very unaffordable for people! My above presentation explains the impact of the carbon tax/pricing in Canada. FYI - Australia scrap the tax,
why? http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/australia-scraps-carbon-tax-tony-abbott-makes-his-country-a-global-
pariah-after-legislation-is-passed-by-senate-9613291.html. If you want go after emitters then why not slammed the carbon tax on imports
from China, India and/or USA? It seems to me India/China/USA are the biggest emitters for GHG, right? Source: ‘
• Harmonization - http://www.cp24.com/mcguinty-rejects-claim-hst-will-kill-jobs-says-it-will-create-600-000-1.454807
• Hydro Rates - http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/02/26/ontarios_big_industries_plead_for_lower_hydro_rates.html or
http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank
or http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2015/07/09-hydro-rates-chamber-report-sudbury.aspx
• Skills Gaps - http://www.collegesontario.org/Need_to_Make_Skills_Work_Report_June_2013.pdf

Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• Other Sources / Government policies/market trends
• Municipalities: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada
• KPIs for January 2015 - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-market-and-industry-indicators-for-canada-january-2015
• Internal Trade Barriers - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/internal-trade-canada
• CFIB - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html
• Programs – SDTC - http://www.orbitealuminae.com/English/investors/news/news-details/2015/REMINDER-Orbite-Selected-for-45M-Grant-
From-Sustainable-Development-Technology-Canada-SDTC/default.aspx. This program was started by the Liberal party, but kept by the CPC
• Programs – EDC http://www.edc.ca/EN/Knowledge-Centre/Economic-Analysis-and-Research/Documents/export-performance-monitor.pdf
• Programs – small business loans – http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2015/01/22/harper-says-small-business-getting-financial-help
• Natural Gas - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/19/canada-to-reduce-taxes-for-lng-projects-stephen-harper-says/?__lsa=2753-
9c88
• Stimulus - http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-conservatives-ill-advised-to-revive-stimulus-spending-if-economy-tanks-
again
• Infrastructure spending - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada
• Flexible manufacturing - http://www.uky.edu/~dsianita/611/fms.html

LNG
• Liquefied Natural Gas
• BC – Petronas - http://www.680news.com/2015/07/25/b-c-finance-minister-heads-to-malaysia-to-discuss-petronas-lng-deal/
• Cape Breton - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bear-head-lng-corp-gets-export-approval-from-u-s-1.3159753
•
• The NDP is against GHG as such where does the NDP stand on LNG Plants?
https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/industry/Energy/Documents/LNG-Advisory-GHG-V4-Web-secured.pdf. Does this mean NDP will shut down
these types of investments?
•
• Harper introduced programs to support LNG investment as such will the NDP kill those tax policies?
http://globalnews.ca/news/1840176/harper-announces-tax-breaks-for-lng-in-b-c/.
•
• How does Mulcair’s cap and trade system support energy sector including LNG? http://www.burnabynewsleader.com/news/environment-
debate-warms-up-federal-election-1.1993912
•
• It seems the NDP has yet to be coherent on their energy strategy including LNG. So, why would anyone trust the NDP if they cannot stand
up for Canadian Energy?
•

LNGMPs over LNG projects
• There is allot activity with LNG, especially Cape Breton and BC.
• BC riding is Cullen, but no comment from him on the proposed deal with Petronas, why? You would think a project of this size that brings
jobs to Cullen's area would be supported by him, right?
• Rodger Cuzner is the MP over Cape Breton project, but no comment from him as well. Rodger Cuzner is Liberal member of the House of
Commons
• Rodger Cuzner has all kinds of time to criticize C377, but no time to promote the LNG project, why?
• https://www.ibew213.org/news/conservatives-use-machiavellian-ploy-pass-anti-labour-bill
Facts/figures/comments/questions on LNG Policy:
Liquefied Natural Gas
• BC – Petronas - http://www.680news.com/2015/07/25/b-c-finance-minister-heads-to-malaysia-to-discuss-petronas-lng-deal/
• Cape Breton - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bear-head-lng-corp-gets-export-approval-from-u-s-1.3159753
• The NDP is against GHG as such where does the NDP stand on LNG Plants?
https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/industry/Energy/Documents/LNG-Advisory-GHG-V4-Web-secured.pdf. Does this mean NDP will shut
down these types of investments?
• Harper introduced programs to support LNG investment as such will the NDP kill those tax policies?
http://globalnews.ca/news/1840176/harper-announces-tax-breaks-for-lng-in-b-c/
• How does Mulcair’s cap and trade system support energy sector including LNG? http://www.burnabynewsleader.com/news/environment-
debate-warms-up-federal-election-1.1993912
• It seems the NDP has yet to be coherent on their energy strategy including LNG. So, why would anyone trust the NDP, especially when
they are not prepared to stand up for Canadian Energy
Cullen:
• Prince Rupert - http://www.rupertport.com/news/releases/fairview-terminal-expansion

NDP Corporate Taxation• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/
• Taxation Analysis - NDP Policy: http://xfer.ndp.ca/2013/policybook/2013-04-17-PolicyBook_E.pdf
• NDP lists manufacturing:
• Harper has already supports MFG via tax policies and/or grants - http://cme-mec.ca/_uploads/_media/52fqtx4b9.pdf. So, how is the NDP going to handle tax
policies? NDP talks about support for business, but says nothing on existing programs like SDTC or EDC or other programs that support seed money or loans
or other tax reduction, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/trade-and-investment-for-canada or
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada.
• Harper has no control over provinces establishing policies like carbon pricing/taxation or provincial pension plans, regulations, etc. Yet, these
aforementioned programs do more harm than good to Canada’s competitive position.
• Canada already has a green economy via programs like SDTC. So, why does Mulcair not mentioned that in his statements? http://dualcitizeninc.com/GGEI-
Report2014.pdf.
• FTA/Investment agreements by Harper already supports huge inflow of capital to help develop the resources and/or industry in Canada -
http://www.automationmag.com/industry-news/news/4429-canada-ranks-third-globally-in-foreign-direct-investment-confidence-index/. Yet, Mr. Mulcair does not
mention that issue, why?
• Exports – Harper’s trade deal will start to provide more opportunity for business - https://globalconnections.hsbc.com/united-kingdom/en/tools-data/trade-
forecasts/ca. Yet Mulcair does not mention these deals, why? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/canadas-trade-growth-to-return-to-
pre-recession-levels-says-hsbc-148943/
• NDP says targeting employment tax credit, but is that not the same as what Harper is doing with EI cuts and/or training/skills options – So, how come this program
is ignored by Mulcair - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html.
• NDP has transitioned programs listed, but says little how Harper has introduced programs to help business adjust to competitive pressures, why?
http://saulschwartz.com/2014/12/11/the-newfoundland-fisheries-innovation-and-adjustment-fund/. NF is fighting the program as they want to use the money for
other purposes. So, does the NDP support handling a blank check to the provinces without any accountability on how the money is to be spent as part of any
transitioning of businesses?

NDP Corporate Taxation
• NDP has social programs like EI and CPP on the list, but is less than clear what that means in terms of policies. If there is further expansion of those programs
then how will the cost be pick up? Does that mean the NDP endorses higher payroll taxes? Harper is working on training and skills development -
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1528807/harper-government-announces-support-mine-training. NDP never makes comments on these programs, why? NDP
is also less than clear on education, especially at the provincial level. It is not Harper’s fault if provinces are not putting the right focus on skills and training:
http://www.plant.ca/insights/canada-needs-manufacturing-strategy/. The provinces set the educational curriculum as such why is Mulcair not calling out the
provinces?
• Made in Canada solutions? How is Mulcair going to come up with value added work in Canada? Is Mulcair going to throw subsidies at business? Yet, Harper is
focus on advance manufacturing that will lead to valued added work being created in Canada - http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=905129
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/harper-government-supports-innovation-in-western-canada-2000280.htm
• NDP has labor laws listed, but said little how provinces have control over many areas of labor law: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_labour_law or
http://www.benefitscanada.com/news/ontario-to-launch-consultations-on-labour-laws-62723. So, where does the NDP stand on bringing consistency to labor
laws across Canada?
• Social responsibilities – Harper continues to ensure companies live up to their social responsibilities - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-
business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/ottawa-vows-to-protect-canada-brand-with-social-responsibility-policy/article21579511/ or How come Mr.
Mulcair does not discussed the sustainable reporting already being done by companies? http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/sustainability/publications/corporate-
sustainability-reporting-canada-2009-en.pdf
• Overall, the NDP policies is all about riding existing policies as well as putting their own spin on policies. The ironic thing is that most of the policies in discussion
by the NDP have already been implemented by Harper and/or will continue to be revisited as part supporting the economy.
• The NDP is also not being truthful on the cost of their programs as any changes to programs will have a costs. So, where is the fully-costed analysis from the NDP?
It seems to me NDP is just throwing out policies without truly understanding either the cost impact and/or the risk to business as part implementing changes in
policies!
•

Key industry and market indicators for july 2015 canada and north america

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