Presentation by Amy Liu, co-director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, on July 22, 2015 in Salt Lake City.

1. GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE
A JOINT PROJECT O F B R OOKIN GS AN D J P MORGA N C H ASE
Salt Lake City, UT - July 22, 2015Metropolitan Policy Program
at BROOKINGS

2. Metropolitan Policy Program
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The Economy Has Recovered from the Great Recession
Source: Current Employment Statistics.
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
2007 2009 2014
Post-Recession U.S. Jobs Gap !
Since start of recession
+865,000 jobs

3. Metropolitan Policy Program
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-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
2007 2009 2015
Payroll Count Jobs Gap Growth-Based Jobs Gap
However, We Still Need More Jobs
Source: The Hamilton Project analysis of Congressional Budget Office and Current Employment Statistics data.
3.5 million!
missing jobs
Post-Recession U.S. Jobs Gap !
Since start of recession

4. Metropolitan Policy Program
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-5%
40%
1990 2000 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0%
36%
0%
-4%
We Need To Improve Incomes for Families
Change in Output Per Capita and Median Household Income!
Since 1990
Source: Current Population Statistics, BLS Consumer Price Index, Census Population Estimates, Moody’s Analytics.
Output per capita: !
+$14,589
Median income: !
-$2,120

5. Metropolitan Policy Program
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These Economic Challenges Vary
Post-Recession Jobs Recovery by Metro Area!
Pre-Recession Peak to 2014Q2
Recovered
Not recovered
Denver!
+7.0%Salt Lake City!
+6.4%
Portland!
+3.5%
Las Vegas!
-5.1%
Boise!
+2.3%
Phoenix!
-2.4%
Colorado Springs!
+2.2%
Detroit!
-9.0%

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Change in Employment Ratio of Working-Age Population!
2007 to 2013
Increased
Decreased 0 - 3 points
Decreased 3 or more points
These Economic Challenges Vary
Phoenix!
-3.3%
Portland!
-2.3% Boise!
-3.7%
Denver!
-1.2%
Las Vegas!
-4.3%
Salt Lake City!
-1.7%
Colorado Springs!
-1.0%
Detroit!
+0.4

7. Meanwhile, Metros in Rocky Mountain Region Lag International Metros
Source: Brookings, Global Metro Monitor, 2015
Growth Rate, 2009-2014!
Top 300 Metro Regions
1 Xiamen, China
2 Nanning, China
3 Wuxi, China
4 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
5 Xuzhou, China
6 Hangzhou, China
7 Suzhou, China
8 Izmir, Turkey
9 Kunming, China
10 Macau, China
Growth Rank, 2009-2014!
Top 300 Metro Regions
65 Austin, Texas
:!
:
97 Salt Lake City, Utah
116 Denver, Colorado
159 Phoenix, Arizona
210 Las Vegas, Nevada

8. CONSUMPTION
CONSUMPTION
CONSUMPTION
CONSUMPTION
CONSUMPTION
DEBT
DEBT
DEBT
DEBT
DEBT
CONSUMPTION
DEBT
DEBT
DEBT
CONSUMPTION
DEBT
DEBT
DEBT DEBT
CONSUMPTIONDEBTCONSUMPTION
INVESTMENT
EXPORTS
INFRASTRUCTURE
HUMAN CAPITAL
ADVANCED
ENERGY
OPPORTUNITY
STEM
R&D
MANUFACTURING
EXPORTS
R&D
HUMAN
CAPITAL
STEM
R&D
We Need New Growth Strategies

9. Source: Ezell, Stephen and Robert Atkinson, 2012, “Fifty Ways to Leave Your
Competitiveness Woes Behind,” ITIF.
Traded
Manufacturing Job
=
Local Jobs
Traded Sectors Are Key to High Quality Economic Growth

10. 1 2 31 2 3
The Imperative for Global
Engagement
Metros Are Centers of Global Trade
and Investment
Metros Are Engaging Globally

11. 81%
share of global economic growth
occurring outside the U.S. 2015-2020
The Bulk of Potential Demand for U.S. Products Comes from Outside of the U.S.

12. Global Middle Class - 2009 | Share of Global Totals
18%!North America
36%!Europe
28%!Asia Pacific
Source: Kharas and Gertz, “The New Global Middle Class,” 2010

13. Global Middle Class - 2030 | Share of Global Totals
7%!North America
14%!Europe
66%!Asia Pacific
Source: Kharas and Gertz, “The New Global Middle Class,” 2010

14. We Are Experiencing All-time Highs in Global Trade—And Trade is Still Growing
Increase in exports to
current FTA partners
since 2009
64
percent
US exports that
go to our current
FTA partners
$765.2
billion
$2.3
trillion
Value of all US
exports in 2013

15. Metropolitan Policy Program
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Share of
GDP Growth
‘09-‘14
Share of
Job Growth
‘09-‘14
Exports Create Jobs, Generate Income, and Support High Wages
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International Exports’ Economic Impact!
Sources: Moody’s Analytics; Brookings “Export Nation”; J. Bradford Jensen, “Global Trade in Services,” Petersen Institute for
International Economics, 2011; David Riker, “Do Jobs in Export Industries Still Pay More?” ITA, 2010.
Manuf. Trade
Wage
Premium
Services
Trade Wage
Premium
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16. Metropolitan Policy Program
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Share of
Output
Share of
Jobs
Exports Create Jobs, Generate Income, and Support High Wages
Metropolitan Policy Program
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International Exports’ Economic Impact!
Brookings Institution, Export Nation 2015
Metropolitan Policy Program
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Share of
Output
Share of
Jobs
Salt Lake City
Region

17. $98.6 b
Top 100!
Metros
Salt Lake!
Region
International Trade Share
15.8%
11.9%
Total Goods Trade
40th out of top 100 metros
Top Regional Trading Partners
1 Provo-Orem $8.2 b
2 Ogden-Clearfield $6.5 b
3 Los Angeles-Long Beach $5.4 b
4 China $2.7 b
5 Canada $1.9 b
6 Atlanta $1.8 b
7 NewYork City $1.7 b
8 Phoenix $1.6 b
9 Mexico $1.6 b
10 Japan $1.0 b
Salt Lake City Region Trade Profile
Source: Brookings, Metro Freight (2013) & Global Gateways (2012)

18. Why Should Firms Export? More Resilience to Domestic Shocks?
U.S. Manufacturing Firms Revenue Growth !
2005-2009
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, 2010, “Small and Medium-Sized
Enterprises: Characteristics and Performance,” Washington,
Source: Brookings and The National Center for the Middle Market, “Accelerating
Exports in the Middle Market“ 2014
-7%
37%Exporting
Non-exporting

19. Why Should Firms Export? Stronger Middle Market Performance
Companies reporting
revenue increases
Exporting
Non-exporting
76%
64%
Companies that
added employees Non-exporting
Exporting 51%
39%
Companies projected
revenue growth next year
Exporting
Non-exporting
6.6%
5.2%
The Middle Market is defined as companies with annual revenues between $10 million and $1 billionBrookings, National Association for the Middle Market, “Accelerating Exports in the Middle Market,” 2014

20. Foreign Direct Investment: Why Does it Matter?
5.6 millionemployees in foreign-owned firms, 2011
Foreign-ownedDomestic
$60,000
$77,000
Average Wages by Ownership
2011
Source: Brookings, Bureau of Economic Analysis

21. FDI Bolsters Exports and Innovation
Source: Brookings, Metro FDI, 2014; Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S.
Manufacturing
Exports
U.S.
Manufacturing
Employment
2%
20%
Foreign-Owned Firms
Goods-Producing Industries, 2011
U.S. Corporate
R&D
U.S.
Employment
5%
19%
Foreign-Owned Firms
2011

22. Growth in Jobs Under Foreign Ownership
Average year, 1991-2011
45% M&A
34% Expansion
21% Greenfield
FDI Capital Inflows
1992-2008
87% M&A13% Greenfield
Source: Brookings, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mergers and Acquisitions Are the Dominant Form of FDI

23. Though Volatile, Global Investment Flows Are Growing
FDI Flows (Capital)
Source: UNCTAD
Global
$1.3 trillion
U.S.
$168 billion
1984 1999 2012
$2 trillion
$1 trillion

24. The U.S. Is Capturing a Smaller Share of Global Investment
12 percent
26 percent
45 percent
U.S. Share of Global FDI (Capital)
Source: UNCTAD
1984 1999 2012

25. Advanced Industries
Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure

26. Pharmaceuticals
Medical EquipmentMotor Vehicles &
Parts
Aerospace
Manufacturing
35
Software Computer Systems
Design
Telecommunications R&D Consulting
Services
Services
12
Oil & Gas !
Extraction
Electricity !
Generation
Energy
3
Advanced Industries

27. Metropolitan Policy Program
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Advanced Industries Support High Wages
Wages
*Advanced Industries spend over $450 on R&D per job annually and over 20 percent of jobs are in STEM occupations.
Source:Brookings “Advanced Industries”, Mark Muro
Metropolitan Policy Program
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$90,000 > $47,000
average advanced
industry wage
average wage
Skills
1 out of 2
advanced industry jobs
require less than a 4-year
degree

28. Advanced Industries Drive Value Creation and Productivity Growth
Advanced Industries!
Share of U.S. Totals
*Advanced Industries spend over $450 on R&D per job annually and over 20 percent of jobs are in STEM occupations.
Source: Brookings Institution forthcoming.
Metropolitan Policy Program
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PatentsGDP R&DJobs Exports
8.9%
17.9%
57.5%
81.2%
90.3%

29. Advanced Industries Drive Value Creation and Productivity Growth
Advanced Industries!
Share of U.S. Totals
*Advanced Industries spend over $450 on R&D per job annually and over 20 percent of jobs are in STEM occupations.
Source: Brookings Institution forthcoming.
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Salt Lake
City Region
57.5%
81.2%
90.3%
11.1%
16.5%
PatentsGDP R&DJobs Exports

30. Metropolitan Policy Program
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Jobs in STEM Fields Are Accessible
Metropolitan Policy Program
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STEM Jobs as a !
Share of All Jobs
Share of STEM Jobs!
Requiring 4-Year Degree
Source: Jonathan Rothwell, “The Hidden STEM Economy,” Brookings, 2012
26 millionSTEM Jobs

31. Metropolitan Policy Program
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Jobs in STEM Fields Are Accessible
Metropolitan Policy Program
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STEM Jobs as a !
Share of All Jobs
Share of STEM Jobs!
Requiring 4-Year Degree
Source: Jonathan Rothwell, “The Hidden STEM Economy,” Brookings, 2012
116,220
STEM Jobs
Salt Lake City Region

32. 11.1%
Advanced Industry
Employment Intensity
15th out of top 100 metros
Largest Advanced Industries
1 Computer Systems Design 10,320
2 Architecture & Engineering 7,990
3 Medical Equipment and Supplies 7,870
4 Precision Instruments 6,170
5 Management Consulting 4,910
6 Data Processing and Hosting 4,320
7 Medical & Diagnostic Laboratories 3,670
8 Software Products 3,390
9 Misc Manufacturing 3,090
10 R&D Services 2,700
Total Advanced Industry Employment
71,590full time workers
Advanced Industry Output
16.5%of all output in the region
Salt Lake City Region Advanced Industry Profile

33. Metros are centers of
global trade and
investment
1 2 31 2 3

34. Bachelor’s
Degrees
74%
92%
PatentsPopulation
66%
75%
Graduate
Degrees
90%
Advanced
Industries
Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, FAA, BLS, and BEA data
Largest Metros’ Share of U.S. Market Assets
Air Freight
82%
Services
Exports
72%
GDP
75%
Metro Areas Hold the Bulk of the Assets That Will Drive Exports

35. 49%54%
41%
87%90%89%
Source: Brookings Export Nation 2013, Census
Population GDP Exports
Salt Lake City and Utah’s Other Metropolitan Areas

36. Metros Have a Critical Role to Play in Exports
Increase export pipeline through proactive outreach in existing networks!
!
Coordinate federal, state, and local programs on the ground!
!
Catalyze cultural shift by mainstreaming exports and trade
Metro
State
Federal
Bring credibility of the Governor’s office to global trade!
!
Establish a state brand platform!
!
Organize trade missions!
!
Dedicate resources to global engagement
Open new markets through free trade agreements !
Finance exports through Ex-Im and SBA!
Provide on-the-ground expertise in U.S. and foreign markets!
Produce export data to inform state and regional efforts

37. 1 2 31 2 3
Metros are engaging
globally in new ways
METRO
INNOVATION

38. 38
Organize for Trade

39. 28 U.S. Metro Areas at the Vanguard of Global Engagement
Exports:
New Cohort
Baltimore!
Fresno!
Houston!
Kansas City!
Philadelphia!
Salt Lake City!
Seattle!
St. Louis
Exports:
Current
Atlanta!
Charleston!
Chicago!
Columbus!
Des Moines!
Indianapolis!
Jacksonville!
Louisville-Lexington
Los Angeles!
Milwaukee!
Mpls-St. Paul!
Phoenix!
Portland!
Sacramento!
San Antonio!
San Diego!
Syracuse!
Tampa Bay!
Upstate SC!
Wichita
Columbus!
Mpls-St. Paul!
Portland!
San Antonio!
San Diego!
Seattle
FDI Pilot

40. Each Metro Area Is Leveraging its Unique Specializations and Global Brand
We Build
Green Cities
Portland
Health and
Wellness
Minneapolis - St. Paul
Life Sciences
San Diego
Services and
Canada
Syracuse

41. 41
Organize for Trade
Invest in !
What Matters

42. Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
SUNY Albany!
Nanotech
Campus
Columbus
Clemson University!
International Center for
Automotive Research

43. Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure

44. Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
DRIC!
Detroit River
International Cross

45. Organize for Trade
Invest in !
What Matters
Network Globally

47. GLOBAL CITIES ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP

48. “The massive changes in the global economy since
World War II have had overwhelmingly positive effects.
But globalization hurts some subgroups within some
countries, including the advanced economies.”!
!
Michael Spence!
Nobel Prize Recipient, 2001!
Distinguished Fellow, Center on Foreign Relations !

49. GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE
A JOINT PROJECT O F B R OOKIN GS AN D J P MORGA N C H ASE
Salt Lake City, UT - July 22, 2015Metropolitan Policy Program
at BROOKINGS

51. Somehow use this map to show current free trade agreements?