A short presentation on recent economic trends in the metro Chicago region with a particular regard to the suburban or "Collar Counties". While the recovery from the recent recession has been uneven, the region has considerable resources to draw upon and competitive advantages that it has only begun to exploit.

1. Newton
Jasper
Kankakee
Grundy
Porter
Lake
Kendall
Will
La Porte
DuPage
Kane
DeKalb
Cook
LakeMcHenry
Kenosha
Metropolitan Chicago
Economic Trends and Potential
Presented by
Brian Harger, M.S., EDFP
Center for Governmental Studies
Northern Illinois University
DeKalb, Illinois
September, 2013

2. Population Distribution
Chicago‐Naperville‐Michigan City, IL‐IN‐WI Combined Statistical Area, 2012
• In addition to having the biggest
share of the region’s population,
the “Collar Counties” also account
of much of its growth.
• Between 2000 and 2012, the
population in “Collar Counties”
increased by 18%, while the
Chicago declined 6.3%.
• The “Collar Counties” are projected
to grow by 6.4% from 2012 to 2016
while the City of Chicago and the
rest of Cook County declines (1.9%).
• The balance of the region will see a
modest increase (3.0%).
Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI
Combined Statistical Area
2012 Population
9,899,902
Collar Counties*
3,416,347
35%
Balance of
Cook County
2,516,495
25%
City of Chicago
2,714,856
27%
Balance of CSA**
1,252,204
13%
2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Release date: May, 2013.
* Collar Counties include DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry
and Will counties in Illinois.
** Balance of Combined Statistical Area includes Kankakee county in Illinois, Jasper,
Lake, LaPorte, Newton and Porter counties in Indiana and Kenosha county in
Wisconsin.

3. Population Trends
1970 ‐ 2030
3
7,108,848
8,597,437
9,863,639
11,125,828
12,841,980
14,243,612
36,719,021
42,643,309
46,756,151
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Chicago Region
Illinois
Midwest Region*
Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
* Rest of Midwest: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin.
Projected

4. Population Trends
Percent Change by Age Group (1970 – 2020)
• Although the population in the
region will continue to grow,
especially in the “Collar Counties”,
the aging of the population will
present several challenges.
• The most important will be the
growing demand for replacement
workers as the “Baby Boomers”
retire.
• While many older workers may
continue working longer due to
good health and financial necessity,
a smaller number of young people
entering the labor force will create
shortages in many industries.
4
34.8%
28.8%
26.0%
26.8%
25.1%
24.0%
23.4%
56.5%
61.3%
62.6%
62.2%
63.4%
61.8%
59.2%
8.7%
10.0%
11.4%
10.9%
11.5%
14.2%
17.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PercentofTotalPopulation
Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI CSA
Under 18 Years
18 to 64 Years
65 Years and Older
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
Projected

5. Gross Regional Product
Chicago‐Naperville‐Michigan City, IL‐IN‐WI CBSA*
• After three decades of rapid
growth, the region’s economic
expansion slowed significantly in
the past decade.
• Between 2000 and 2010, GRP
increased by 5. 1%, much less
than the U.S. average of 15.1%.
• In 2010, the “collar counties”
accounted for 32.2% of the
region’s GRP.
• The region’s economic growth rate
is projected to increase 18.6%
through 2020, but lower than the
projected U.S. growth (22.8%).
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
MillionsofDollars
Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
Note: Figures are in constant (2005) dollars.
5
Percent Change
1970-1980 16.9
1980-1990 27.7
1990-2000 41.2
2000-2010 5.1
2010-2020 18.6

6. Gross Regional Product by Industry Sector
Share of Total Gross Regional Product
6
Agriculture
0.1%
Mining
0.2%
Construction
3.3%
Manufacturing
11.0%
Transportation and
Warehousing
3.4%
Information
3.8% Utilities
1.3%
Wholesale Trade
7.1%
Retail Trade
4.2%
Finance and Insurance
10.6%Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing
14.7%
Professional and Business
Services
11.4%
Administrative, Management
and Waste Services
5.8%
Education
1.1%
Health Care
6.1%
Social Assistance
0.6%
Leisure and Hospitality Services
3.3%
Other Services
2.7%
Government
9.3%
Chicago 9‐County Region*, 2010
* Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane,
Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois.
Source: IMPLAN, 2010.

7. Income Trends
(1970 – 2030)
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PerCapitaIncome
Cook County
Collar Counties*
Balance of CSA**
State of Illinois
• After several decades of rapid
income growth, the “Collar
Counties” experienced a decline
in per capita income, unlike Cook
County or the State of Illinois.
• Although many factors
contributed to the decline,
including the past recession, an
increase in poverty and a decline
in proprietor (i.e. small business)
income are of particular concern.
• A return to growth is projected,
but per capita income will still lag
behind the State, as well as rest
of the region.
7
Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
* Collar Counties include: DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will.
** The balance of the Combined Statistical Area includes: Kankakee County, Illinois; Kenosha
County, Wisconsin; and Jasper, Lake, LaPorte, Newton and Porter counties in Indiana.
Note: Figures are in constant (2005) dollars.
6.3% drop
Projected

8. Unemployment Trends
2000‐2013
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
UnemploymentRate
City of Chicago
Balance of Cook County
Collar Counties*
Illinois
Recession
• The region is enduring the longest
period of high unemployment
since the 1980’s.
• Although unemployment rates
have fallen since the recession,
they remain at historically high
levels and are still above the
national average.
• The “collar counties” have
generally experienced lower
unemployment levels.
8
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013.
Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted.
* The Collar Counties includes DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will.
** Average for January through June, 2013.

9. Employment Changes in Region
Comparison of Chicago and Selected Suburban Communities
• Although most suburban
communities have seen significant
job growth since the end of the
recession, some are continuing to
struggle.
• The City of Chicago lost over 75,000
jobs in the past recession and is still
experiencing net job losses.
• This is a cause for concern for the
“Collar Counties” because Chicago
is the primary employment center
of the region and many suburban
residents are employed in the City.
9
-6.0%
-5.4%
-6.1%
-3.4%
-1.5%
-8.4%
-4.7%
-6.2%
-7.9%
-7.6%
-5.3%
-6.9%
-5.8%
-2.5%
21.2%
1.9%
3.3%
4.6%
7.3%
-3.3%
1.2%
5.8%
6.0%
6.7%
0.5%
-2.0%
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%
Chicago
Aurora
Naperville
Joliet
Elgin
Schaumburg
Waukegan
Evanston
Arlington Heights
Palatine
Bolingbrook
Skokie
Tinley Park
Percent Employment Change
June 2009 - June 2013
Dec. 2007 - June 2009

10. Newton
Jasper
Kankakee
2,436
Grundy
2,102
Porter
3,004Lake
16,946
Kendall
5,809
Will
39,180
La Porte
622
DuPage
67,429
Kane
19,866
DeKalb
1,837
Cook
911,914
Lake
33,054
McHenry
12,490
Kenosha
1,549
Chicago
All Other Locations
57,328
Commuting Patterns
Where Workers Live Who are Employed in the City of Chicago by County
• Approximately 182,000
workers who live in the
“collar counties” commute
to jobs in Chicago.
• The majority of
commuting workers (71%)
are employed in service
related jobs.
• Trade, transportation and
utilities account for about
20% of commuting
workers.
10
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, Local Employment Dynamics program, 2013.
Cook County
Collar Counties
Balance of CSA

11. Newton
Jasper
Kankakee
2,436
Grundy
2,102
Porter
480Lake
4,573
Kendall
627
Will
11,615
La Porte
199
DuPage
58,877
Kane
8,334
DeKalb
720
Lake
24,016
McHenry
2,099
Kenosha
245
Cook
847,019
Chicago
All Other Locations
29,421
Commuting Patterns
Where Workers are Employed Who Live in the City of Chicago by County
• Approximately 108,000
workers who live in Chicago
commute to jobs in the
“collar counties”.
• The majority (57%) of
commuting workers are
employed in service related
jobs.
• Chicago commuters also
tend to earn less at their
suburban jobs (44% earn
$40K or more per year vs.
63% for commuting workers
from the “collar counties”.
11
Cook County
Collar Counties
Balance of CSA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, Local Employment Dynamics program, 2013.

12. Employment Changes in the Region
Comparison of Industry Sectors
• The professional and business
services sector has made a
significant recovery, but growth in
other sectors has been weak or
continues to decline.
• Education and health services and
leisure and hospitality were the only
sectors that increased employment
during the recession and have
continued to do so.
• Nearly three‐fourths of the jobs lost
during the recession were in the
manufacturing, business and
professional services, and retail
trade sectors.
12
-6.0%
-16.7%
-19.0%
-14.0%
-7.7%
-11.5%
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.4%
-10.1%
2.6%
3.1%
-0.5%
1.3%
3.3%
-28.6%
-11.1%
0.5%
3.2%
-0.4%
5.3%
-1.3%
-1.4%
14.2%
8.5%
6.2%
-1.3%
-3.9%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Total Non-Farm Employment
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Percent Change
Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI CSA
June 2009 - June 2013 Dec. 2007 - June 2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013.

13. Employment Concentration by Sector
Chicago‐Naperville‐Michigan City, IL‐IN‐WI CSA*, 2011
13
*The Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area (CSA) consists of Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane Kankakee, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will
counties in Illinois; Jasper, Lake, LaPorte, Newton, and Porter counties in Indiana; and Kenosha county in Wisconsin.
Source: StatsAmerica.org; the Purdue Center for Regional Development and the Indiana Business Research Center, 2013.
Advanced
Materials
Agribusiness,
Food Processing
And Technology
Apparel
and Textiles
Arts, Entertainment,
Recreation and
Visitor Services
Bio-Medical
Bio-Technical
Business and
Financial Services
Chemical and
Chemical-Based
Products
Defense
And Security
Education and
Knowledge Creation
Energy
Forest and
Wood Products Glass and
Ceramics
Information
Technology and
Telecommunications
Transportation
And Logistics
Primary
Metal Mfg.
Fabricated Metal
Products Mfg.
Machinery
Mfg.
Computer and
Electronics Mfg.
Electrical Equipment,
Appliance and
Component Mfg.
Transportation
Equipment Mfg.
Mining
Printing and
Publishing
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
ChangeinEmploymentConcentration
2007-2011
Employment Concentration
(Location Quotient)
Growing Employment
Low Concentration
Low Concentration
Declining Employment
Growing Employment
High Concentration
High Concentration
Declining Employment

14. Opportunities for Job Growth
Professional and Business Services
• Despite significant job losses during the recession, this sector
has rebounded strongly adding 96,000 jobs since June 2009.
• Professional and business services currently represents 17.3%
of non‐farm employment in the region.
• Professional, technical and managerial occupations account
for about 50% to 65% of the jobs in this industry with most
requiring at least a four‐year degree.
• The areas of the greatest projected job growth through 2020
include employment services (20,200 jobs), computer systems
design (19,900 jobs), management, scientific and technical
services (17,300 jobs) and services to buildings and dwellings
(14,300 jobs).
14

15. Opportunities for Job Growth
Education and Health Services
• This was one of the few sectors that experienced employment
growth through the recession, adding 12,400 jobs (a 3.1%
increase).
• The industry continued its strong performance, growing by
8.5% or 52,800 jobs since June, 2009 and it is projected to add
116,000 jobs between 2013 and 2020.
• The region’s population is aging quickly and life expectancy of
seniors is increasing. This will fuel demand for healthcare
services and creating jobs opportunities.
• Demographic changes in the workforce and the pace of
technological changes will drive innovation in education and
worker training at all levels.
15

16. Opportunities for Job Growth
Manufacturing
• The recent trend toward “re‐shoring” of some manufacturing
activities holds significant job creation potential.
• The looming demand for workers to replace retiring “Baby
Boomers” will be the primary source of job openings in
manufacturing over the next decade.
• Over 8,500 new production workers per year will be needed to
replace retiring workers through 2020. The replacement
demand will also be strong for managerial, professional and
technical positions.
• However, a higher level of training and skills will be needed to
work with more complex production technologies (e.g.,
robotics, 3D printing and nanomanufacturing).
16

17. Opportunities for Job Growth
Transportation and Warehousing
• Chicago is a principal hub of the North American road, rail,
inland waterway and air transportation networks, giving it a
significant competitive advantage in transportation and
distribution activities.
• Transportation and warehousing accounts for a relatively
small share of total employment, but has grown steadily in
the past two decades and provides critical support the
region’s manufacturing, wholesale, retail and agricultural
sectors.
• Despite slowing economic growth and unstable fuel prices,
employment has rebounded since the recession, has added
10,000 jobs since June, 2009 and is projected to add 13,700
jobs between 2013 and 2020.
17

18. Keys to Future Employment Growth
• Restore state and local government finances.
• Re‐shoring higher value‐added manufacturing activities.
• Demand for replacement workers as “Baby Boomers” retire
will be the primary source of job openings.
• Demand for healthcare and services to seniors (especially
housing, travel and recreation) will continue to grow as the
population ages.
• Continued growth in domestic energy production (especially
natural gas).
• Investments in transportation and logistics infrastructure.
• Innovations in education and worker training.
18

19. For More Information
Brian Harger, M.S., EDFP
Research Associate
E‐mail: bharger@niu.edu
Center for Governmental Studies
Northern Illinois University
DeKalb, Illinois
Website: www.cgsniu.org
19