Workforce Supply and Demand Analysis for North Georgia and the Digital Economy

1. North Georgia’s
Opportunities in the
Global Economy
Jennifer Zeller, Director of Research
GEORGIA POWER
COMMUNITY & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2. Who we are,
how we do it,
tools we use
The Global
Economy
North Georgia’s Outlook
• Technology, Education, Workforce
• Challenges and Opportunities

3. What We Do More Than 85 Years of Generating Growth

4. What We Do Community Development
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5. •EMSI (Economic Modeling)
•On The Map (labor & commute sheds)
•Economic Impact Models (Implan)
•Harvard Cluster Mapping Project
•Career Builder
•Business Wise, Hoovers, Reference USA
•DnB
•Directory of Corporate Affiliations
•CoStar Real Estate data
•GPC Economic Development Industry Database
•ESRI Data/Mapping
•Census/ACS/FactFinder/Trade Data
•Immigration/in-migration (IRS, Moody’s)
•Moody’s Data Buffet
•Woods & Poole Economics
•Moody’s Economy.com
•Tax Foundation
•Occupational Costs (BLS/GDOL/EMSI)
•RS Means Square Foot Costs
•CCH| Incentives Calculator
•ACCRA COLI

6. What We Do
Why Talent is Important
History of Top Location Decision Factors Survey, Corporate Decision Makers
Occupancy/Construction Costs
Energy Availability & Costs
Corporate Tax Rate
Available Buildings
Tax Exemptions
Low Union Profile
* Not in top ten factors for year shown
Source: Area Development Magazine, Corporate Surveys, 2005 to 2012
2
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
N/A
Highway Accessibility
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5
7
4
l
8
10
4
9
6
l
3
l
7
4
5
l
3
l
3
5
8
l
4
9
5
3
7
l
10
10T
7
9
3
l
6
l
7
10
6
l
8
l

7. What We Do Site Selection: Process of Elimination
Talent Availability or Cost
Process of elimination (Barriers to success)
Regulatory
Environmental (air, water, permitting)
Financial
Natural disaster threats
Business environment
Taxes
Permitting
Cost of living/cost of doing business
Workforce availability
Accessibility (air, highway, rail, port)
Real Estate Options
Sites/buildings
Infrastructure – Telecom/Highway
Source: CBRE, Jonathan Sangster

9. Real GDP:
2011 (
2012: (
2014:
2013:
2015:
Taxes Up,
Spending
Down
European
Economic
Conditions/
US Debt
Hiring /
Confidence
Slowing
Emerging
Markets
Regulatory
Environment

10. U.S. Macro Confidence Still Impacting Corporations
Nov-13
203
Oct-13
200
Sep-13
175
Aug-13
238
Jul-13
89
Jun-13
172
May-13
176
Apr-13
199
0
Source: Moody’s Economy.com, Nov 2013
50
100
150
200
250

11. The Georgia Economy Ready for Take Off
Positive growth began in
2011(1.6%), 2.6% by 2015
Unemployment rate
continues to drop over the
next 5 years – down to
5.1% by 2017 – ATL
(GA-6.0%)
• Professional & Bus Serv.
• Information
• Leisure & Hospitality
• Construction
• Trade
• Education and Health
Services
• Finance
• Government -1.4%
• Manufacturing -1.6%
• Growth in information
tech / business services
industries
• Construction rebounding
• Continued growth of
trans equip
manufacturing
• Port Harbor deepening
(2017)

12. Economic Reality Manufacturing Weakening
Source: BLS; PNC

15. Economic Outlook Strong Future
4
Atlanta
3
GA
U.S.
2
Percent Change
1
0
-1
2000
2002
2004
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
Moody’s Economy.com, July 2013
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018

16. Improving Economy but improvement very slowly…
Heading toward healthy expanding jobs forecast late 2014 (full employment* by 2016)
40,200
Unemployment Rate
91,200
N/A
40,200
51,400
70,300
71,000
108,000
121,000
51,400
71,800
74,200
N/A
N/A
9.9%
9.0%
8.2%
7.5%
6.8%
6.3%
43,700
60,200
58,700
65,000
N/A
35,900
43,700
51,800
55,300
74,500
80,900
35,500
Atlanta
77,800
35,900
Unemployment Rate
81,500
40,200
Georgia
50,900
43,900
56,400
57,700
N/A
N/A
9.8%
8.8%
7.8%
6.7%
6.0%
5.5%
Source: Forecasts as of December 10, 2013 (Nov 2013– GSU); Moody’s Analytics- July 2013; UGA- Dec 2013)
* Full employment indicates an unemployment rate under 6 %.
GSU
Moody’s
UGA
GSU
Moody’s
UGA

17. North Georgia Outlook Regional Employment Map

18. North Georgia Outlook Community Development

19. North Georgia Outlook Jobs & Earnings

20. North Georgia Outlook Unemployed by Industry

21. North Georgia Outlook North Region Graduates

24. 162 (111 manufacturing)
Jobs – 18,397
Capital Investment - $2.87 billion
Jobs – 13,000
Capital Investment - $3 billion

26. Northwest Region A View of the Regional Economy

27. Northwest Region 4 Counties – Where Workers Live (Labor Shed)
Economic
Interdependence
Among Counties
57.1% Workers Live in
Region
Source: Bureau of the Census, On the Map 2010

28. A Regional Voice Offers Attractive Concentration
Regional Population Base (2012):
356,746
Source: ESRI, 2013
Regional Pipeline of Talent (Universities, Technical Schools)
Regional
Employment:
141,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Economic Modeling 2013
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, 2011
Graduate data of universities and technical colleges.

29. Total Value of Exports Traded Among Counties - $815 M

30. Net Migration Among NW Counties - Gordon

31. Net Migration Among NW Counties - Cobb
See the difference from
a county not so
localized!

32. Athens MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Athens MSA live

33. Athens MSA Commute Shed Where Athens MSA residents work

34. Dalton MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Dalton MSA live

35. Dalton MSA Commute Shed Where Dalton MSA residents work

36. Chattanooga MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Chattanooga MSA live

37. Chattanooga MSA Commute Shed Where Chattanooga MSA residents work

38. Gainesville MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Gainesville MSA live

39. Gainesville MSA Commute Shed Where Gainesville MSA residents work

40. Rome MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Rome MSA live

41. Rome MSA Commute Shed Where Rome MSA residents work

42. Arts,
* Bubble size represents 2013 jobs in each

43. 120,000
19,520
100,000
80,000
11,162
60,000
40,000
5,222
3,723
3,240
3,351
20,000
2013 Jobs
2,665
2,123
2020 Jobs
1,343
303
Change
215
0
191
35
16

44. Community Development Cherokee County Example
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45. Community Development Cherokee County Example

46. Abundant Talent
IT Concentration by Place of Work
IT Professionals
Computer & Math Concentration by Place of Residence

47. (Job Postings)
(Active Profiles)
Source: CareerBuilder
Supply/Demand Portal

48. Percentage of Persons in Poverty
Estimated U.S.: 15.9%
Estimated Georgia: 19.2%
Note: The lighter the color, the more
impoverished the area.
Source: 2010 Poverty Rates, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates
(SAIPE), U. S. Bureau of the Census

49. Whiteout indicates that no SAT score was available for that county
Source: Georgia Department of Education, 2013 data

50. Source: Georgia Department of Education (2013)

51. •
•
•
•
Low high school grad rate and SAT in region
• Leads to workforce training issues
Areas without access to broadband internet (DSL over phone line not acceptable)
• Need fiber area to make an area competitive
Developmental costs are disproportionate, infrastructure costs relatively high due to terrain, lack of
natural gas
Topological challenges
Lack of regionalism in many areas
Weaker labor shed concentration
Lack of available buildings
•
•
•
Very strong work ethic. NW region always been manufacturing region. Generational values
Some available workforce (high UE rate) just not enough
Recent project wins (Caterpillar, Kubota, Engineered Floors) – prepared sites and ED Leadership
•
•
•

52. –