Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm A presentation by Prof. Johan Rockström from Stockholm Resilience Centre Water Land Ecosystem High level dialogue New Delhi 3rd May 2013

1. Water Land Ecosystem
High level dialogue
New Delhi
3rd May 2013
Prof. Johan Rockström
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Sustainable Intensification of
Agricultural Development:
The scientific support for a new paradigm

2. 2 Photos: Mattias Klum
3 - 6 - 9
A Biosphere Shaped by Humanity

4. Growing
Human Pressure
[20/80 dilemma]
Climate change
[560/450/400 dilemma]
Surprise
[99/1 dilemma]
Ecosystem
decline
[60 % loss dilemma]
Global
Freshwater
Resources

6. 13-09-20 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke,
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Humanity has reached a
planetary saturation
point
The Human ability to do has
vastly outstripped our
ability to understand
A resilient biosphere the
basis for humen
development
Fierce urgency of now
A great transformation to
global sustainability
necessary, possible, and
desirable

7. Goal 1: Ending Extreme Poverty
Goal 2: Achieving Development within Planetary Boundaries
Goal 3: Achieve Gender Equality, Human Rights and the Rule of Law
Goal 4: Achieving Food Security and Rural Prosperity
Goal 5: Empowering Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities
Goal 6: Achieving Health and Wellbeing at all Ages
Goal 7: Ensure Effective Learning for Every Child for Life and Livelihood
Goal 8: Curbing Human-Induced Climate Change
Goal 9: Securing Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity
Goal 10: Transforming Governance for Sustainable Development

8. …
Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475
Global fresh-
water use
Transgressing safe
boundaries

9. Global water resources in
the Anthropocene

10. IPCC AR4 Scenario, Mean
deviation (%) 2080-2099,
ensemble models
Social futures 2050
7000  > 9000 km3
/yr

11. Hansen et al 2012

12. Extreme weather
events more
common, with
larger social and
economic
impacts, coupled
to human
induced climate
change

13. Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters

14. Food production to increase by ~70 % by 2050 to eradicate
hunger on a planet with ~9 billion people (IIASTD 2009)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2002
2015
2030
2050
year
km3
0
100
200
300
1960
1970
1980
1990
2002
2015
2030
2050
year
km3
Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 2015
2002 base line
The MDG Water Challenge

15. In the search of a new paradigm
For Sustainable Intensification
Of Agriculture for Human
Prosperity

16. Mats Lannerstad et al., in Prep

17. Green-Blue resources for sustainable
development
100%100%
60%60%
40%40%
GLOBAL
INDIA
KENYA

18. Dependence on green and blue water 2000
114
654
1080
239
787
1505
1692
907
219
Comprehensive Assessment 2007

19. Critical transitions or regime shifts
Regime shifts are substantial, persistent, reorganizations in
ecosystem structure and processes
Diverse Coral
dominated
Algae
Dominated Reef
Parkland
Savanna Bush steppe

20. Agricultural Modification of ‘Green’ (ET) water flows
Irrigation + 1800-2500 km3
/yr
Deforestation - 3000 km3
/yr
Gordon et al. 2005, 2008
Total ET roughly 67000 km3
/yr
Monsoon collapse
Savannisation
Dry savanna – wet
savanna

21. Moisture feedback critical for rainfall

22. Operationalising a
Paradigm Shift

23. Elements of a Paradigm Shift
• Integrated reform of irrigated and rainfed agriculture
(participation; watershed management; blue-green
integration)
• Nexus approach to land-water-ecosystems; agriculture-
energy-water
• Landscape and water restoration
• Rural water and sanitation – resource reuse
• Water and wastewater use
• Integated land, water ecoystem management
• Institution reform (national water framework)

25. IrrigatedRainfed

26. A triply Green Revolution
– 2-3 X production
– Social-Ecological Resilience
– Green water management
Meeting the Global food challenge

27. Strategies to upgrade
rainfed agriculture
• Increase Crop water
uptake capaciy
• Increase Crop water
Availability
Upgrading Rainfed agriculture

28. Smallholder Agriculture
+ Water =
Solutions to Rural
Poverty & Hunger
www.awm-solutions.iwmi.orgwww.awm-solutions.iwmi.org

29. Resource Reuse and Recovery:
Productive Sanitation
35
Drip irrigation: urine + water
PhotoB.Comoe
Photo:DrRodda.W
UnivofKwaZulu-Na

30. Integrated Land and water resource management
Payments for Ecosystem Services
< 25%
25 - 50%
50 - 75%
75 - 100%
Green Water Credits
Tana Basin, Kenya
0 50 10025 Km
±
Decrease in Erosion (%)

31. Improved land
management practices in
Agriculture has the
potentialt to sequester 0.4
– 1.2 Gt C/år
(Rathan Lal, Science 2004)
Transforming
Agriculture from
Source to Sink
Coupling land management,
fertilisation and water resource
management (e.g., CA, ES, WH)

32. A new framework for
Sustainable Development

33. Photo Mattias Klum
Feeding the world in the Anthropocene
within a safe operating space of Planetary
Boundaries requires a major global
transformation of Agriculture
Sustainable Intensification for food
security and rural prosperity the only
possible strategy

34. TitleOur vision:
A world in which agriculture thrives
within vibrant ecosystems, where
communities have higher incomes,
improved food security and the ability
to continuously improve their lives