Elin Enfors, Alain Vidal & Line Gordon Tempe, Arizona, 11 March 2011  A Resilience Perspective on the  Water-Food-Poverty ...
Foley et al. 2005 Agriculture – a dominating land use MA 2005; FAOSTATS; Scanlon et al 2007;  Smil 2002
Sudden shifts in ag/water systems Gordon, et al. 2008 Wet savanna -> dry savanna  Fog/cloud forests Forest -> savanna Mons...
<ul><li>Surprising, sudden, and sometimes irreversible losses of ecosystem services </li></ul>Implications of these shifts...
RESILIENCE - deals with the tension between persistence and change
<ul><li>Variability and change, rather than stability, is seen as the normal state </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipating surprise...
Feedback theory - practice - theory <ul><li>“ Despite recent interest in resilience, there is still little empirical evide...
1. Linked social-ecological systems and trade-offs /synergies between different ecosystem services   2. Regime shifts and ...
1. Linked social-ecological systems and trade-offs / synergies between ecosystem services  Conceptual overview of wetland ...
2. Regime shifts and the tension between persistence and development What system states / trajectories are desirable? Resi...
Vidal et al. 2010 Adaptation / transformation case 1 Restoring river flows, water quality and ecosystem services in the An...
The concern for ecosystem services emerged downstream Eutrophication and shrinking of Fuquene Lake High altitude wetland (...
Restoring upstream and downstream ecosystem services  Paramo  restored through conservation tillage and oat/potato rotatio...
Resulting changes on upstream water Conservation  agriculture Traditional  agriculture % Volumetric Water More water store...
Triggers for change between alternate resilient states S Annual net income: 2,183/ha Annual net income: US$ 1,870/ha Revol...
Using water system innovations to change trajectory in Makanya, Tanzania Adaptation / transformation case 2
Context:   A development oriented research program that investigated the potential of small-scale water system innovations...
Approach:  4 sub-studies 2) Strategies to deal with drought 3) On-farm experimentation: effects of SWSIs on key soil varia...
Feedbacks reduce the agro-ecological productivity, creating a trap  Current social-ecological dynamics
LEVERAGE POINTS FOR TRANSFORMATION  SWSIs have the potential to destabilize the feedback loop, reducing the resilience of ...
1. Linked social-ecological systems and trade-offs /synergies between different ecosystem services   2. Regime shifts and ...
3. The role of disturbances/shocks for system dynamics Increasing dryspell frequency in sub-Saharan Africa, a sign of chan...
4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development context Integrated assessment map Identification of socially defi...
Questions – from conceptual to practical <ul><li>How is a resilience thinking different from other approaches  that deals ...
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A Resilience Perspective on the Water, Food, Poverty Challenge

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Launch of the CPWF Resilience TWG inception workshop, Tempe 11 March 2011

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A Resilience Perspective on the Water, Food, Poverty Challenge

  1. 1. Elin Enfors, Alain Vidal & Line Gordon Tempe, Arizona, 11 March 2011 A Resilience Perspective on the Water-Food-Poverty Challenge
  2. 2. Foley et al. 2005 Agriculture – a dominating land use MA 2005; FAOSTATS; Scanlon et al 2007; Smil 2002
  3. 3. Sudden shifts in ag/water systems Gordon, et al. 2008 Wet savanna -> dry savanna Fog/cloud forests Forest -> savanna Monsoons Eutrophication Hypoxic zones River channel change Salinisation Vegetation patterns Soil structure
  4. 4. <ul><li>Surprising, sudden, and sometimes irreversible losses of ecosystem services </li></ul>Implications of these shifts <ul><li>There is a need for new approaches to the analysis and management of agro-ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>We are facing an enormous water-food-poverty challenge </li></ul>
  5. 5. RESILIENCE - deals with the tension between persistence and change
  6. 6. <ul><li>Variability and change, rather than stability, is seen as the normal state </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipating surprise and being able to adapt and transform is necessary to stay in business </li></ul>A different world view <ul><li>Resilience is about: </li></ul><ul><li>withstanding shocks and disturbances (like climate change, financial crises etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>using such events to catalyze renewal, innovation and development </li></ul>Sven-Göran Eriksson (successful soccer coach): “ It is a wrong strategy not to change a winning team”
  7. 7. Feedback theory - practice - theory <ul><li>“ Despite recent interest in resilience, there is still little empirical evidence to demonstrate how resilience may be enhanced by agriculture investments” (Walker et al. 2010) </li></ul><ul><li>CPWF uniquely suited to contribute to improved resilience thinking in several areas: </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding of resilience for development/poverty alleviation </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding of resilience in human-dominated landscapes </li></ul><ul><li>Improve the interplay of theory and practice (research for development) </li></ul>
  8. 8. 1. Linked social-ecological systems and trade-offs /synergies between different ecosystem services 2. Regime shifts and the tension of persistence and development (coping, adapting and transforming) 3. The role of disturbances/shocks for system dynamics 4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development context Some interesting aspects of resilience thinking in the water-food-poverty context
  9. 9. 1. Linked social-ecological systems and trade-offs / synergies between ecosystem services Conceptual overview of wetland sub-systems, PN 30 <ul><li>Can management of regulating services help build resilience of provisioning services? </li></ul><ul><li>Empirical link between poverty and ecosystem services </li></ul>
  10. 10. 2. Regime shifts and the tension between persistence and development What system states / trajectories are desirable? Resilient Non-resilient Resilient Non-resilient
  11. 11. Vidal et al. 2010 Adaptation / transformation case 1 Restoring river flows, water quality and ecosystem services in the Andes
  12. 12. The concern for ecosystem services emerged downstream Eutrophication and shrinking of Fuquene Lake High altitude wetland ( paramo ) degraded by potato cropping and overgrazing
  13. 13. Restoring upstream and downstream ecosystem services Paramo restored through conservation tillage and oat/potato rotation Water quality and ecosystem services from Fuquene Lake improved
  14. 14. Resulting changes on upstream water Conservation agriculture Traditional agriculture % Volumetric Water More water stored, restoring the buffer role of paramo Conservation agriculture Traditional agriculture Accumulated Organic Matter (g/g) Better soil porosity, filtration, increased water and carbon storage
  15. 15. Triggers for change between alternate resilient states S Annual net income: 2,183/ha Annual net income: US$ 1,870/ha Revolving fund supported conservation agriculture and paramo restoration Farmers’ insufficient gain + risk aversion: only 11% converted Revolving fund credit: +180 farmers /year Potato cropping, grazing pressure, degradation of paramo
  16. 16. Using water system innovations to change trajectory in Makanya, Tanzania Adaptation / transformation case 2
  17. 17. Context: A development oriented research program that investigated the potential of small-scale water system innovations (SWSIs) for improving productivity in dryland farming systems in a sustainable way Focus: Can SWSIs both improve yield levels and contribute to maintain a multi-functional agro-ecosystem 1) What are the current social-ecological dynamics of the Makanya agro-ecosystem? 2) How would the introduction (wide-spread use) of SWSIs influence those dynamics?
  18. 18. Approach: 4 sub-studies 2) Strategies to deal with drought 3) On-farm experimentation: effects of SWSIs on key soil variables 1) Historical development: Land cover change, rainfall trends 4) Participatory scenario planning
  19. 19. Feedbacks reduce the agro-ecological productivity, creating a trap Current social-ecological dynamics
  20. 20. LEVERAGE POINTS FOR TRANSFORMATION SWSIs have the potential to destabilize the feedback loop, reducing the resilience of current trajectory A. Stabilized yields B. Improved input/outtake ratio C. Reduced pressure on off-farm resources D. Reduced need for ag. land expansion E. Improved soil health F. Reduced erosion
  21. 21. 1. Linked social-ecological systems and trade-offs /synergies between different ecosystem services 2. Regime shifts and the tension of persistence and development (coping, adapting and transforming) 3. The role of disturbances/shocks for system dynamics 4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development context Some interesting aspects of resilience thinking in the water-food-poverty context
  22. 22. 3. The role of disturbances/shocks for system dynamics Increasing dryspell frequency in sub-Saharan Africa, a sign of changing variability Sedzimir et al in prep., Enfors et al, in prep Social-ecological timeline for Maradi/ Zinder in Niger, displaying gradual change and pulses of disturbance
  23. 23. 4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development context Integrated assessment map Identification of socially defined thresholds Bene et al. PN 72 project report Example from small-scale fisheries on participative ways of scoping the baseline for adaptive management
  24. 24. Questions – from conceptual to practical <ul><li>How is a resilience thinking different from other approaches that deals with integrated/interdisciplinary issues related to sustainability, vulnerability, livelihoods etc? </li></ul><ul><li>What can a resilience approach bring to your projects? </li></ul><ul><li>How can your projects contribute to resilience thinking theory and practice? </li></ul>

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