China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), is already internationalised: it ranks fourth globally by value of payments, behind only the US dollar, the euro and the British pound. The size of China’s economy and its dominant position in international trade mean that its use in transactions is already commonplace. Yet it is still not comparable to the four major denominations (including the Japanese yen) as an investment currency—i.e. one that is freely usable and enjoys the full confidence of international investors and the companies that service them. Without their support, the RMB cannot reach full maturity.
Until recently it seemed inevitable that China would take the steps necessary to win their confidence and that the RMB would soon join this elite band of global investment currencies. Yet the events of the summer of 2015, during which China’s authorities sought unsuccessfully to prop up a collapsing stock market and also suddenly devalued the RMB’s exchange rate anchor (ostensibly to take market forces more into account), raised questions about the country’s commitment to liberalising its capital markets. Doubts were reinforced by successive data points that suggested its economy was slowing far more rapidly than expected.
Looking beyond recent short-term volatility, the research asks about perceived demand for international usage of the RMB, what reforms are most urgently required, and what steps global financial services companies must take to prepare for a world in which the RMB vies with the US dollar.
The EIU also conducted in-depth interviews with a range of market participants and experts for this report, globally and in China, including with senior officials from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank.
13. 各國資本流動 況不一致狀
金融海嘯後,
- 東歐及東亞持續呈現資本流出
• - 拉丁美洲及其他新興國家,在 2010 至
2014 年資本淨流入,之後才轉為流出。
13圖片來源: Understanding the Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging
Markets , IMF
20. 2000 年後,貨幣錯配大幅改善
• 在 2000 年後,新興國家的貨幣錯破問題才逐
漸改善。改善原因 :
●
藉由外部資產持有增加高於負債
1.發行以本國貨幣計價的債券
20圖片來源: Understanding the Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging
Markets , IMF
37. 固定效果模型
• 國家與時間固定效果
• 國際因素解釋變異程度
資本開放 vs 資本管制
固定匯率 vs 浮動匯率
低準備率 vs 高準備率
高負債 vs 低負債
37圖片來源: Understanding the Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging
Markets , IMF
38. 4 種受國際因素影響較低的國家特色
• 資本帳開放程度:資本管制限制資金流
動,使國際因素解釋資金流入能力降低
• 匯率:藉由彈性匯率調整,可改變資產
價 ,進而影響資金流動,使國際因素值
解釋資金流入能力降低,且影響最大
• 準備率:高準備率營造風險較低環境,
使國際因素解釋資金流入能力降低
• 負債:低負債營造風險較低環境,使國
際因素解釋資金流入能力降低
38圖片來源: Understanding the Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging
Markets , IMF
48. 經常帳赤字的新興國家占多數
• 45 個新興國家, 30 個 2015 年經常帳赤字,需持續觀察外匯儲備及幣 波動值
• 烏克蘭、波蘭、阿根廷、土耳其等國 2010~2014 年 Reserves and related items
大減或為負,屬危險族群
48圖片來源: Understanding the Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging
Markets , IMF
50. 變數設定與資料來源
• 新興市場與先進國家的預期成長差:前一年 World Economic outlook 預期的經濟
成長率,以 IMF 的 Coordinate Portfolio Investment Survey 資料調整權重
• 新興市場與先進國家的利差:各國政策利率,以前一年 World Economic outlook
的預期通膨做調整
先進國家( 7 個):加、法、德、義、日、英、美
新興國家( 20 個)
• 全球風險趨避( log ): the logarithm of the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility
Index ( VIX )
• 油價變動: the West Texas Intermediate oil price 年變動
• 美國公債殖利率差:美國長期與短期公債利差
• 美國公司債殖利率差:公司債與政府公債利差
50
Editor's Notes
1970s : petrodollars finance the current account deficit in emerging market.
1980s : Volker hiked the rate to disinflation sudden stop in lending to Latin America
August 1982: Mexico can no longer pay its $80 billion foreign debt
By the end of 1986: more than 40 countries had problems financing their external debt. (Debt crises)
1990s : 1994 Mexico tequila crisis + Asian crises (Currency crises/BS mismatching/excess risk-taking)
The increase in foreign reserves
was most pronounced in east Asia, especially after the
Asian crisis of 1997–98 (Figure 2.11, panel 3), whereas
the increase in the stock of nonreserve assets was more
uniform across regions (Figure 2.11, panel 4)
October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report, the
stock of emerging market corporate debt has grown
substantially over the past decade, even as the share
of foreign-currency-denominated debt in total debt
has declined. Finally, the majority of indicators of
foreign-currency mismatches in Figures 2.13 and 2.14
peaked prior to 2010 and have remained stable or
declined since
current account
balance equals the change in foreign reserves.26 Hence,
slowdowns in net nonreserve capital inflows are countered
by some combination of a slower accumulation
(or a faster decumulation) of foreign reserves and a
higher current account balance. The three components
of the identity are jointly determined. For example,
during the years leading up to the global financial
crisis, many commodity-exporting emerging market
economies received strong capital inflows amid rising
investment opportunities and accumulated reserves,
with strong terms-of-trade gains offsetting the impact
of rapid import growth on the current account. With
the decline in commodity prices and more subdued
growth prospects from 2011 onward, the process began
to reverse. The following analysis uses the balance of
payments identity as a guiding framework and discusses
three relevant dimensions of the macro adjustment
across episodes: exchange rates, foreign reserves,
and the current account.