Vice Admiral (Retired) Conrad Lautenbacher, CEO, GeoOptics Inc., Pasadena, CA June 2016 - UCAR Congressional Briefing on Space Weather Prediction Video of this presentation will be available shortly.

1. Space&Weather&Predic.on&Next&Steps:&
An&industry&and&military&perspec.ve
GeoOptics, Inc. Pasadena, CA
June 14, 2016
Dr. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. CEO
Vice Admiral, ret. USN

2. Slide Title
National Space Weather Strategy*
“The Nation must continue to leverage existing public and
private network of expertise and capabilities and pursue
targeted enhancements to improve the ability to manage risks
associated with space weather.”
“The Strategy and Action Plan build on recent efforts to
reduce risks associated with natural hazards and reduce
risks associated with natural hazards and improve resilience
of essential facilities and systems, aiming to foster a
collaborative environment in which government, industry,
and the American people can better understand and prepare
for the effects of space weather.”
.
Introduction
*https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/
final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf

3. Industry & Military Perspective
National Space Weather Strategy*
1. Establish+Benchmarks+for+Space+Weather+Events+
2. Enhance+Response+and+Recovery+Capabili>es+
3. Improve+Protec>on+and+Mi>ga>on+Efforts+Public+Good+&+
Government+Control+
4. Improve+Assessment,+Modeling,+and+Predic>on+of+Impacts+on+
Cri>cal+Infrastructure+
5. Improve+Space+Weather+Services+through+Advancing+
Understanding+and+Forecas>ng+
6. Increase+Interna>onal+Coopera>on+
Strategic Goals
*https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/
final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf

4. Industry & Military Perspective
American Commercial Space Weather Association
• Algorithm development
• Automatic event detections (flares, solar
energetic particles, geoeffective CMEs)
• Calibration/validation
• Data assimilation
• GPS modeling and services
• HF propagation
• Numerical modeling and simulation
• Sun, interplanetary medium
• magnetosphere, ionosphere
• thermosphere, lower atmosphere
• Operational implementations /
Research to Operations (R2O)
• Risk and threat analyses for
infrastructure and space resources
• Satellite data analysis & data product
development
• Sensor hardware & modeling
• Software tools
• Application development (web-based and
smart phone)
• Data hosting / data product delivery
• Data / model visualization
• Space Situational Awareness (SSA)
• Spacecraft anomaly prediction and
assessment
• Space weather data product and
service distribution
• Space weather now-casting/forecasting
Capabilities*
*http://www.acswa.us/capabilities.html

5. Industry & Military Perspective
Dilemma
?
Federal+
Budget+
National
needs
To Meet

6. Industry & Military Perspective
Partnership
Federal+
Budget+
National
needs
Gov’tGov’t
Space Weax
Academia
Space Weax
Commercial
Space Weax
Academia
Commercial
To Meet
Filled by:
Coordinated
National
Public
Private
Effort
Essential

7. Industry & Military Perspective
U.S. Government Space Policy*
• Purchase+commercial+space+services+to+the+maximum+extent++
• Modify+commercial+space+services+when+cost+effec>ve+&+>mely+
• Explore+nontradi>onal+arrangements+for+acquiring+commercial+space+services+
• Develop&USG&space&systems&only&when&no&US&commercial&service&available&
• Refrain&from&ac.vi.es&that&compete&with&US&commercial&space&ac.vi.es&
• Pursue&opportuni.es&for&transferring&rou.ne&space&func.ons&to&the&
commercial&space&sector&
• Cul>vate+entrepreneurship+in+the+commercial+space+sector+through+
incen>ves++
• Ensure+USG+space+technology+available+for+commercial+use+
To promote a robust domestic commercial space industry, agencies shall:
*http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf

8. Industry & Military Perspective
Space Weather Industry
Products and Services
Upstream
Mid-Stream
Downstream
• Research
• Observations
• Instrumentation
• Data
• Data Processing
• Computation
• Algorithms
• Models
• Forecasts
• Warnings
• Services
• Emergency Mgt
Value Chain
www.acswa.us

9. Industry & Military Perspective
Military Perspective
• Solar+Storms+will+affect+military+opera>ons+and+readiness+
– White+House+emergency+ac>on+will+be+ini>ated+based+on+current+plans+
– Assets+may+have+to+be+moved+to+cover+areas+without+power+or+communica>on+
– Reac>ons+are+>me+sensi>ve++
– Military+forces+rou>nely+train+for+defense+against+nuclear+warfare+scenarios+
• Nuclear+ElectroTmagne>c+Pulse+(EMP)+or+High+al>tude+EMP+(HEMP)+
– Caused+by+nuclear+bomb+detona>on+
– Effects+vary+based+of+al>tude+and+bomb+size+
– Effects+(E3)+similar+to+a+geomagne>c+storm+caused+by+a+solar+flare+
– Major+effects+include+communica>ons+disrup>ons+
– Detona>on+in+outer+space+could+affect+long+term+viability+of+mul>ple+satellites+
• 2013,+House+considered+"Secure+HighTvoltage+Infrastructure+for+Electricity+from+
Lethal+Damage+Act"+++(surge+protec>on+~300+large+transformers.)+