The document discusses the evolving Arctic environment, emphasizing the challenges, risks, and opportunities related to security, access, and sovereignty. It highlights significant changes in Arctic sea ice trends and potential navigation routes by 2025, advocating for increased U.S. commitment and cooperation with other nations, particularly Russia, in resource management. The author calls for building infrastructure and partnerships to ensure safety and sustainable economic engagement in the Arctic region.

1. Challenges, Risks &
Opportunities in a Changing
Arctic Environment
David W Titley, Rear Admiral USN (ret.), Ph.D.
Professor of Practice, Penn State Meteorology
Director, Center for Solutions to Weather & Climate Risk
September 30, 2015
State of the Arctic

2. 2
•
It’s
Changing
•
It’s
not
a
Vacuum
•
It’s
Time
to
get
Ready
The
Arc8c
is
about
our:
•
Security
•
Access
•
Sovereignty
Bo>om
Line
Up
Front

3. 3
Arc$c
Sea
Ice
(1994
–
2012)

4. Arc$c
Sea
Ice
Volume
(1980
–
2013)

5. 5
Arc$c
Considera$ons
One
Scenario
+
=
Today

6. Northern Sea Route
2025: 6 weeks open
41’ controlling draft
Transpolar Route
2025: 2 weeks open
Deep ocean transit
Northwest Passage
2025: intermittently open
33’ controlling draft
Sea Routes
Arctic Ice Coverage
Arc$c
Trade
Routes:
Today
&
Tomorrow
Crossroads
Sea
route
distances:
Distance
from
the
Bering
Strait
to
Ro>erdam
Courtesy:
US
Navy

7. M/V
NORDIC
ORION
Summer
Cruise
2013

8. The
Polar
Orbiter
Strategic
High
Ground

9. Separated by a common lexicon:
Arctic? High North?

10. 10
Arctic Sea Ice Forecast
JPSS
Composite water
depth chart created
from sparse data
• Ice
breakers
• Ice
hardened
USN
&
USCG
vessels
• Observa@ons
• Naviga@on
surveys
and
infrastructure
• Arc@c
domain
awareness
• Bases
for
support
• Port(s)
• Energy
infrastructure
• Communica@ons
Required
Capacity
Awareness,
Presence
&
Infrastructure

11. • Elevate
US
Arc8c
Commitments
and
Engagement
• Build
Founda8ons
for
Sustainable
Responsible
Economic
Engagement
• Ensure
Safety
and
Security
of
Arc8c
Oceans
and
Borders
• Arc8c
Security
Forces
Roundtable
(ASFR)
• Conven8on
on
Law
of
the
Sea
• Develop
Broad
Coopera8on
with
Russia
on
Arc8c
Resource
Use
• Forge
Long-­‐term
Public-­‐Private
Partnerships
and
new
Coordina8ng
Mechanisms
A Way Ahead

12. 12
Discussion
dwt12@psu.edu
@dw8tley