Alicia Karspeck, Climate Scientist and Associate Director of Research Partnerships, Jupiter Technology Systems, Inc. UCAR Congressional Briefing - April 2018

1. RESEARCH AND PRIVATE SECTOR
PARTNERSHIPS:
WORKING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE
CLIMATE-INFORMATION FOR
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC GOOD
Hosted by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research • April 24, 2018
Alicia R. Karspeck, PhD, Jupiter
Climate Scientist and
Associate Director of Research Partnerships

2. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
About Jupiter
Well-funded, early stage company
based in Silicon Valley, Boulder, CO
and NYC.
Focused on providing climate and
weather risk analytics at time-horizons
of weeks-to-decades
Jupiter views S2S as part of the
spectrum of future-condition information
that we can provide to clients

3. Proprietary & Confidential
ENTERPRISE
• Site selection
• Design requirements
• Mitigation strategy
• Ongoing assessment
• Operational risks
• Shareholder disclosures
GOVERNMENT
• Redevelopment
• Public health
• Building guidelines
• Flood prevention
• Citizen communication
• Emergency planning
FINANCE
• Investing
• New insurance
• Catastrophe bonds
• Underwriting decisions
• Energy markets
• Asset allocation
Climate-information has utility
within many broad sectors (e.g.)
3
The potential economic value of weather-information in the U.S: $13B
…Still discovering how much additional value there is in climate-information.
Sources: DOC 2014: Value of Govn’t data; NWS Enterprise Analysis Report (2017)

4. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
FloodScore provides clients information on how
their risk of flooding may change in the context
of future environmental conditions (e.g. sea
level rise)
Note: This product relies on open-source models,
simulation sets, observations, and basic research funded
by federal agencies:
● CMIP climate-model simulations (NSF, NASA, NOAA)
● special-project climate-simulations (NCAR-NSF/GEO)
● surge models (NOAA, NSF)
● hydrologic/hydraulic models (USACE)
● storm track research (NSF-GEO)
● sea level rise research (NSF-GEO, NOAA, EPA)
● regional NWP modeling (NSF, DoE, DoD)
● atmosphere and ocean observations (NOAA)
Example product: Mapping future
flood-risk in Charleston, SC

5. Private
sector
creation of
commercially-viable,
tailored products
forecasts of physical
climate-variables
climate
science
climate-product
development User-focused climate
information
Climate research
sector
creation of
commercially-viable,
tailored products
climate-information for
social/economic good
discovery/invention
decision making
that considers
future conditions

6. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
Engagement of the Earth Science
community for mutual benefit
● Direct sponsorship of cutting-edge climate
science research
Jupiter Community Science Program
! Foster collaborative R&D
! Connect private/philanthropic funders to
promising research programs
Jupiter’s engages with the
climate-science community

7. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
What makes climate forecast data
VIABLE
for commercial development?
Jupiter supports
federal funding into programs that
promote these outcomes
Quality
of climate-forecast
data
Accessibility
of climate-forecast
data
Continuity
of climate-forecast
data

8. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
The higher the quality climate-
forecasts the easier it is to serve and
expand the market
for climate information
Key focal areas for federal funding:
● Climate variability research
● Sustained climate observations
(for process study/model validation/forecast initialization)
● Coupled model development
● Engagement in prediction activities (realtime
forecasting, retrospective forecasting, analysis
of forecasts)
Quality
older version of
forecast system
betterworse
Courtesy of B. Kirtman
newer version of
forecast system

9. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
The “paradoxical crisis” for the use-
ability of climate-science data:
The more sophisticated models become, the
harder it is to use them
Earth System Models and their output are
increasing in complexity and size
○ more components (land, ocean, atm, ice)
○ more processes
○ higher resolution
○ larger ensemble sets
Storage, distribution and analysis practices
should be anticipating these trends …
Accessibility
low-res ocean
simulation
(100 km)
high-res ocean
simulation
(10 km)
observations
sea surface temperatures

10. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
Accessibility (cont…)
Managing the data tsunami:
…data-management and distribution
should not be an afterthought.
75
sec/calc
375
sec/calc
250 days
saved
Changes in data-storage patterns can
lead to profound savings in analysis time.
Key focal areas for federal funding to
ease data-access bottlenecks:
● Use-case directed storage/distribution
● Software for faster
access/subsetting/analysis of large data-
sets
● More personnel funded to manage
data, respond to data requests.
Rule of thumb: datasets > 1TB require
concerted attention

11. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
Open and dependable relationships
with climate-forecast providers
● Communication by federal agencies about
their plans for supporting/extending the
climate prediction research
● Private sector input into funding priorities
● Consistency and timeliness of data-
delivery
● Continuity/longevity of data-streams (it
takes time to develop products and
markets)
Continuity of data and relationships

12. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
Contact us to hear more about Jupiter, our views on research/public/private
partnerships, and how the federal government can support S2S prediction
Alicia R. Karspeck, PhD
alicia.karspeck@jupiterintel.com
Quality
of climate-forecast
data
Accessibility
of climate-forecast
data
Continuity
of climate-forecast
data

13. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
EXTRA SLIDES