Successfully reported this slideshow.
Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

Research Frontiers in Space Weather, Part I

Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Loading in …3
×

Check these out next

1 of 31 Ad

Research Frontiers in Space Weather, Part I

Download to read offline

Scott McIntosh, Director, High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
June 2016 - UCAR Congressional Briefing on Predicting Space Weather

Video of this presentation will be available soon.

Scott McIntosh, Director, High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
June 2016 - UCAR Congressional Briefing on Predicting Space Weather

Video of this presentation will be available soon.

Advertisement
Advertisement

More Related Content

Slideshows for you (20)

Viewers also liked (20)

Advertisement

Similar to Research Frontiers in Space Weather, Part I (20)

More from UCAR - Atmospheric & Earth System Science (12)

Advertisement

Recently uploaded (20)

Research Frontiers in Space Weather, Part I

  1. 1. Research Frontiers In Space Weather Dr. Scott W. McIntosh Director, High Altitude Observatory Associate Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research
  2. 2. We Live In The Atmosphere Of Our Star Research Frontiers In Space Weather Courtesy NASA/VisLab
  3. 3. Space Weather Impacts on Society Research Frontiers In Space Weather The US research community is meeting a new National Space Weather strategy that will require parallel advances in observational and numerical science to improve forecast skill for critical systems. Power Grid VulnerabilityRaw Natural Beauty Space Infrastructure Vulnerability Financial System Vulnerability
  4. 4. Critical Needs Research Frontiers In Space Weather The Storm Track of Hurricane Ike Improvements in Space Weather forecasting REQUIRE the improved estimates of the environment between Sun and Earth. Before   After  
  5. 5. Improvements in Key Areas To Improve The Space Weather Enterprise Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Observations of the Sun’s complete magnetic atmosphere. Ø  Observations of interplanetary space to track the disturbance. Ø  Observations of the magnetosphere/ionosphere Interface. Ø  End-to-end modeling capability to interpret the suite of observations. Ø  Capability to feed next-generation models with these new observations. Ø  Models to increase forecast capability to weeks and beyond…. Hunting for extreme event origins.
  6. 6. Solar Observation Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  CoSMO is a suite of three instruments. Ø  CoSMO is capable of measuring the critical magneto-thermal environment of the inner solar system.
  7. 7. Terrestrial Impact Research Frontiers In Space Weather The ionosphere is the nexus of space and weather in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Next generation observations and models of the Earth’s upper atmosphere are required to study the balance of “bottom-up” and “top-down” influence on this region housing critical infrastructure.
  8. 8. Data Assimilation Research Frontiers In Space Weather Space weather forecast skill will be increased by utilizing observations and models t o g e t h e r t h r o u g h d a t a a s s i m i l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s c o m m o n l y e x p l o i t e d i n terrestrial meteorology.
  9. 9. Take Home Message & Hand Off Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Space weather is a full-time concern. Ø  Benign and extreme flavors of space weather can impact society and critical infrastructure at different levels. Ø  There could be a hefty price to pay for negligence in forecasting episodes of extreme space weather. Ø  Improved observations and modeling capabilities working hand-in-hand are required to improve forecast skill. Ø  NCAR is working with the university community to develop key pieces of infrastructure at the critical boundaries of the Sun-Earth Connection.
  10. 10. Research Frontiers in Space Weather, II Dr. Thomas H. Zurbuchen Professor, University of Michigan
  11. 11. Nature of Space Weather in Research Community Research Frontiers In Space Weather Space  Weather  is  to  Space  Researchers   what  Cancer  is  to  Biological  Scien5sts:  A   way  to  demonstrate  the  value  and  impact   of  one’s  work!      
  12. 12. Role of University Community Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Fundamental research on physical processes through theoretical investigations, data analysis, and models Ø  Knowledge and understanding of instrument designs of instrument used today and needed in the future Ø  Applied research by building large-scale models, analysis of predictions and improved prediction methodologies Ø  Educate talent equipped with both skillsets
  13. 13. Space Weather Facts Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Small CMEs today affect operations of power grid at $10B/yr in USA and Europe alone Ø  A Carrington-like event is estimated to cause$2 trillion in damage Ø  The current estimate of occurrence of such an event is 12% in 10 years
  14. 14. Key question Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  How do we get from forecasts of 48 minutes to forecasts of 48 hours? Ø  Modeling challenge, observational challenge, education challenge ?  
  15. 15. Modeling Challenge: University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Multi-physics, multi-scale system only addressed by SWMF. SWMF Control & Infrastructure Eruption Generator Solar Corona Inner Heliosphere Global Magnetosphere Polar Wind Inner Magnetosphere Ionospheric Electrodynamics Thermosphere & Ionosphere Solar Energetic Particles Radiation Belts 3D Outer Heliosphere Couplers Flare/CME Observations Upstream Monitors F10.7 Flux Gravity Waves Magneto- grams, rotation tomography Particle in Cell Particle Tracker Convection Zone
  16. 16. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Ran External Evaluation Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  The University of Michigan’s SWMF was ranked #1 in prediction skill among all available models Ø  Result: SWMF runs in predictive mode now 24/7 on NOAA’s super-computers
  17. 17. March 2015 St Patrick’s Day Storm Research Frontiers In Space Weather
  18. 18. New Architectures: Space Weather Distributed Sensor Network Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Status quo: looking at Sun from Earth, L1, some observations in magnetosphere Ø  Future architectures: multi-point measurements of significantly cheaper spacecraft operated as system Ø  Discussed and recommended in new report by National Academies !
  19. 19. New Architectures: Severe Storm Example Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Eight nano-spacecraft provide comparable measurements at ~10% of cost, and with repeat times 5-10 times quicker than traditional technologies ! ! Cyclone  Global  Naviga1on   Satellite  System  (CYGNSS)    
  20. 20. CubeSats as Development Platform Research Frontiers In Space Weather Current    Emerging      Developing   Demonstrated    Within  2  years      Expected  in  5  years     0.1  degrees    0.02  degrees      0.0003  degrees                                (arc-­‐minute)      (arc-­‐second)   AAtude  Control   Current    Emerging      Developing   Demonstrated    Within  2  years      Expected  in  5  years     N/A      Inert  gas,  3D  printed    Micro  Electrospray        50  m/s        300  m/s     Propulsion   Current    Emerging      Developing   Demonstrated    Within  2  years      Expected  in  5  years     10  krad  Si  total  dose  Selec1ve  hardened    Radia1on  hardened  bus   12  months  LEO  12  months  interplanetary  Mul1-­‐year  interplanetary     Radia5on  Tolerance   Blue  Canyon  XACT     aUtude  control  system   Astrium  LEON  microprocessor   JPL  Indium  MEP  thruster  
  21. 21. Educational and Training Challenge Research Frontiers In Space Weather Ø  Education, mobilize workforce to Ø  Develop new, more compact sensors and systems Ø  Analyze data with fundamental and applied problems Ø  Develop and run models for research and forecasting !
  22. 22. Space  Weather  Predic5on  Next  Steps:   An  industry  and  military  perspec5ve GeoOptics, Inc. Pasadena, CA June 14, 2016 Dr. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. CEO Vice Admiral, ret. USN
  23. 23. Slide Title National Space Weather Strategy* “The Nation must continue to leverage existing public and private network of expertise and capabilities and pursue targeted enhancements to improve the ability to manage risks associated with space weather.” “The Strategy and Action Plan build on recent efforts to reduce risks associated with natural hazards and reduce risks associated with natural hazards and improve resilience of essential facilities and systems, aiming to foster a collaborative environment in which government, industry, and the American people can better understand and prepare for the effects of space weather.” . Introduction *https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/ final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf
  24. 24. Industry & Military Perspective National Space Weather Strategy* 1.  Establish  Benchmarks  for  Space  Weather  Events   2.  Enhance  Response  and  Recovery  Capabili1es   3.  Improve  Protec1on  and  Mi1ga1on  Efforts  Public  Good  &   Government  Control   4.  Improve  Assessment,  Modeling,  and  Predic1on  of  Impacts  on   Cri1cal  Infrastructure   5.  Improve  Space  Weather  Services  through  Advancing   Understanding  and  Forecas1ng   6.  Increase  Interna1onal  Coopera1on   Strategic Goals *https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/ final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf
  25. 25. Industry & Military Perspective American Commercial Space Weather Association •  Algorithm development •  Automatic event detections (flares, solar energetic particles, geoeffective CMEs) •  Calibration/validation •  Data assimilation •  GPS modeling and services •  HF propagation •  Numerical modeling and simulation •  Sun, interplanetary medium •  magnetosphere, ionosphere •  thermosphere, lower atmosphere •  Operational implementations / Research to Operations (R2O) •  Risk and threat analyses for infrastructure and space resources •  Satellite data analysis & data product development •  Sensor hardware & modeling •  Software tools •  Application development (web-based and smart phone) •  Data hosting / data product delivery •  Data / model visualization •  Space Situational Awareness (SSA) •  Spacecraft anomaly prediction and assessment •  Space weather data product and service distribution •  Space weather now-casting/forecasting Capabilities* *http://www.acswa.us/capabilities.html
  26. 26. Industry & Military Perspective Dilemma ? Federal   Budget   National needs To Meet
  27. 27. Industry & Military Perspective Partnership Federal   Budget   National needs Gov’tGov’t Space Weax Academia Space Weax Commercial Space Weax Academia Commercial To Meet Filled by: Coordinated National Public Private Effort Essential
  28. 28. Industry & Military Perspective U.S. Government Space Policy* •  Purchase  commercial  space  services  to  the  maximum  extent     •  Modify  commercial  space  services  when  cost  effec1ve  &  1mely   •  Explore  nontradi1onal  arrangements  for  acquiring  commercial  space  services   •  Develop  USG  space  systems  only  when  no  US  commercial  service  available   •  Refrain  from  ac5vi5es  that  compete  with  US  commercial  space  ac5vi5es   •  Pursue  opportuni5es  for  transferring  rou5ne  space  func5ons  to  the   commercial  space  sector   •  Cul1vate  entrepreneurship  in  the  commercial  space  sector  through   incen1ves     •  Ensure  USG  space  technology  available  for  commercial  use   To promote a robust domestic commercial space industry, agencies shall: *http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf
  29. 29. Industry & Military Perspective Space Weather Industry Products and Services Upstream Mid-Stream Downstream •  Research •  Observations •  Instrumentation •  Data •  Data Processing •  Computation •  Algorithms •  Models •  Forecasts •  Warnings •  Services •  Emergency Mgt Value Chain www.acswa.us
  30. 30. Industry & Military Perspective Military Perspective •  Solar  Storms  will  affect  military  opera1ons  and  readiness   –  White  House  emergency  ac1on  will  be  ini1ated  based  on  current  plans   –  Assets  may  have  to  be  moved  to  cover  areas  without  power  or  communica1on   –  Reac1ons  are  1me  sensi1ve     –  Military  forces  rou1nely  train  for  defense  against  nuclear  warfare  scenarios   •  Nuclear  Elector-­‐magne1c  Pulse  (EMP)  or  High  al1tude  EMP  (HEMP)   –  Caused  by  nuclear  bomb  detona1on   –  Effects  vary  based  of  al1tude  and  bomb  size   –  Effects  (E3)  similar  to  a  geomagne1c  storm  caused  by  a  solar  flare   –  Major  effects  include  communica1ons  disrup1ons   –  Detona1on  in  outer  space  could  affect  long  term  viability  of  mul1ple  satellites   •  2013,  House  considered  "Secure  High-­‐voltage  Infrastructure  for  Electricity  from   Lethal  Damage  Act"      (surge  protec1on  ~300  large  transformers.)  
  31. 31. Download Slides Research Frontiers In Space Weather PDF of Slides Available

×