State of U.S. Space Policy: Implications for Land Management Markets

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A presentation by John Cullen from the Penn Institute for Urban Research's "Earth from Space" conference.

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State of U.S. Space Policy: Implications for Land Management Markets

  1. 1. State of U.S. Space Policy: Implications for Land Management Markets Senior Policy Analyst Space, Science & Technology Washington D.C. March 28, 2007
  2. 2. Driving Factors in Space Systems Design <ul><li>U.S. Space Policy is defined by 3 Objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Human Presence – Massive, Habitable Systems @ Hi Reliability & Safety </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planetary Exploration and Astronomy – Extreme, Automated Performance using Intelligent Design </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Earth Applications – Specialized Economic Form & Function with emphasis on Low Cost Operations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Operationalization” of Space Technology occurs when Mission Risk is balanced with User Satisfaction </li></ul><ul><li>Managing the Cost of Space Flight is directly related to Managing Risk in Technological Advancement </li></ul><ul><li>Advances in Space Flight are inherently limited by Cost </li></ul>
  3. 3. Stages of Development in Earth Applications <ul><li>Rapid Translation from Testbed to Application </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Military Surveillance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Telecommunications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weather Forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land Observation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Position, Navigation, and Timing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Applications Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Privatization and Commercialization </li></ul><ul><li>Commoditization and Systems Ubiquity </li></ul><ul><li>R&D Capitalization or Technological Stagnation </li></ul>
  4. 4. Moderate-Resolution Land Imaging (5-120km) <ul><li>Rapid Translation from Testbed to Application </li></ul><ul><li>Applications Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Privatization and Commercialization </li></ul><ul><li>Commoditization and Systems Ubiquity </li></ul><ul><li>R&D Capitalization or Technological Stagnation </li></ul><ul><li>Landsat 1 launched in 1972 </li></ul><ul><li>Early Studies Presaged Prolific Use </li></ul><ul><li>Commercialization Attempted in 1980 and 2003 </li></ul><ul><li>High Public Value, but Limited Commercial Utility limited Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Capital Market never Materialized </li></ul>
  5. 5. Policy Transition: 2004-2007 <ul><li>Landsat had little policy support even though essential in climate science and in some imagery markets </li></ul><ul><li>In 2004, the U.S. first attempted to merge weather and land satellites </li></ul><ul><li>In 2005, this decision was reversed and Landsat 8 begun </li></ul><ul><li>A White House “Future of Land Imaging” report is pending – it recommends a National Land Imaging Program at the U.S. Department of the Interior </li></ul><ul><li>NLIP will have broad responsibility for Civil Operational Land Imaging to meet U.S. Public and Private Needs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Requirements Setting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Satellite R&D, Data Acquisition, and Data Distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Applications Demonstration </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. National Land Imaging Objectives <ul><li>U.S. satellites will be developed to meet “core U.S. operational needs” </li></ul><ul><li>All needs will be considered -- Federal, State, Local, and Commercial </li></ul><ul><li>New technologies will be considered – radar, lidar, and hyperspectral </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Public-Private and International Agreements will augment U.S. capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Implementation will occur within Group on Earth Observation (GEO) objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fulfillment of Global Sustainable Development Goals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emphasis on Health and Climate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Support for Disaster Management </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Implications for Imagery Markets <ul><li>Market supply of land imagery will grow dramatically </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global satellite capability in Earth Observation is becoming more common </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Europe, India, Japan, and China are taking market leadership positions in Earth Observation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All nations, including Less Developed Nations, are accelerating participation in Earth Observation and Satellite Communications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Launch technology will be the only remaining hurdle separating Space Haves from Have-Nots </li></ul><ul><li>New Economic Partnerships will develop independent of historic relationships, with uncertain geopolitical implications </li></ul><ul><li>The substitution value of satellite imagery will increase significantly </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pressure on commercial aerial and high-resolution satellite operators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global competition to service emerging markets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Competition among imagery suppliers will take many forms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Niche” versus large national concerns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Market versus Social Democratic economies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competition for “Control of Distribution” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Traditional evolution of vertical versus horizontal integration </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Implications for Land Management Markets <ul><li>More and better source data at “close-to-daily” intervals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More types of imagery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low-to-No Cost imagery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System Capacity and Imagery Quality “sized” to meet the problem </li></ul></ul><ul><li>More emphasis on operational management of resource wealth, infrastructure security, and disaster response </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pressure to increase productivity yield </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Heightened public security expectations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>More and better climate impact assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Broader and more effective regulation of public and private land use </li></ul><ul><li>Market reconsideration of the value of satellite information </li></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>Commerce and Earth Resource Management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Agriculture, Forestry, and Sustainable Development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Water Resource Assessment and Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Energy Resource and Mineral Wealth Assessment and Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Foreign Agricultural Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Insurance Risk Management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Environmental Monitoring and Assessment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Land Use Change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Climate Variability and Change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Habitat and Wetlands Management and Ecological Forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Sea Ice, Glaciation, and Snow Pack Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Erosion Control and Hydrological Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Deforestation, Desertification, and Salinization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Urban and Rural Geography and Human Ecology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Civil Operations and Applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Land Use Planning and Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Resource Conservation and Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Wildfire, Coastal Zone, and Flood Plain Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Natural Disasters Mitigation and Response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Human Health and Well-Being </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Physical Infrastructure Assessment and Operation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Navigation and Transportation Planning and Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Property Valuation and Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>National Security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Intelligence and Information Gathering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Homeland Security </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- U.S. Military Operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Health and Productivity of the U.S. Aerospace Industry </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Treaty and Legal Compliance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Boundary Control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Property Rights and Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- International Conventions and Treaty Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Tax Base Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Land Use Regulation </li></ul></ul>Societal Management Human and Natural System Interaction Security and Compliance

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