Rebecca Morss, Senior Scientist and Deputy Director, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - November 2017 UCAR Congressional Briefing

1. Advancing Weather
Prediction to Address
Critical Societal Needs
Dr. Rebecca E. Morss
Senior Scientist and Deputy Director
Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory
National Center for Atmospheric Research
November 14, 2017
FROM RESEARCH TO INDUSTRY:
How Earth system science enables private sector
innovation

2. From Research to Industry
“Quiet revolution” of modern
weather prediction
Year →
Advances in science and technology have led to dramatic
improvements in weather forecasts over the last 40 years
3-day forecast
5-day forecast
7-day forecast
10-day forecast
Southern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere
From Bauer et al. (Nature, 2015)
These improvements have transformed
weather-related decisions, reducing losses
and enhancing societal benefits

3. From Research to Industry
What is the next revolution*?
• Global, multi-scale weather prediction
modeling – to extend finer-scale
forecasts to longer lead times
• Expand weather prediction to forecasts
of hazards and impacts
(National Academies, 2010)
• Integrate social sciences with
meteorology to improve forecast
creation, communication, and use
(National Academies, 2006, 2010, 2017)
* In weather science and technology
• Add some
graphics
here
Hurricane Irma: poten?al tracks
Poten?al storm surge flooding

4. From Research to Industry
Why is finer-scale (higher-resolution)
weather modeling important?
Ø Improves prediction of the weather that people experience
Ø Requires computing technology and scientific research
6 kilometer grid spacing ~1 kilometer grid spacing

5. From Research to Industry
Benefits of finer-scale modeling
Example: May 8, 2009 line
of severe thunderstorms NWS opera?onal
model guidance
(12km grid):
No detailed
structure
Weather Research
and Forecas?ng
(WRF) model
27-hour forecast
(3km grid)
Observed radar
reflec?vity

6. From Research to Industry
Weather forecasting is fine-scale …
and global
Hurricane Irma
(September 2017)
NOAA/NASA GOES satellite image of Hurricanes Ka?a, Irma, and Jose (2017)

7. From Research to Industry
Unstructured centroidal
Voronoi (hexagonal) mesh
Extending fine-scale weather forecasts
to longer lead times
Model for Prediction Across
Scales (MPAS) – a next-
generation community model
• Global, multi-scale weather
modeling
• Uniform or variable resolution
mesh
• Applications include extended-
range (days to weeks)
convective-scale weather
forecasting

8. From Research to Industry
Global fine-scale MPAS simulation

9. From Research to Industry
Global fine-scale MPAS simulation

10. From Research to Industry
MPAS forecasts: Hurricane Irma
(retrospective)
Irma’s track
Forecast ini0alized on
2 September 2017
(~9 days before FL landfall)

11. From Research to Industry
MPAS forecasts: Hurricane Irma
(retrospective)
9-day forecast
Irma’s
track
8-day forecast
7-day forecast
6-day forecast
5-day forecast

12. From Research to Industry
MPAS forecasts: Hurricane Irma’s
mainland U.S. landfall
5-day forecast
4-day forecast
3-day forecast
2-day forecast
1-day forecast
Irma’s track

13. From Research to Industry
Using social sciences to improve risk
communication and decision making
“I never dreamed of
7 feet of water”
(interview)
“RT @NickGregoryFox5: … Storm
surge may [r]each 8 ft with 10-20
ft waves on top. Rockaways s[et
for major flooding]”
“@NickGregoryFox5 I'm 2 blocks
from the beach in Arverne.
Define "major flooding" please.
#Sandy #ZoneA”
(Twitter)
“We knew about the risk in our
neighborhood. But the way it
came in this time, it was just --
it was mind-boggling …”
(focus group)
“Would want more specific
numbers like wind speed
and height of storm surge.”
“Not local enough.”
(survey)
1. What hazardous
conditions and impacts
will people experience?
2. How to communicate
this information?

14. From Research to Industry
Forecasting hazards and impacts:
Opportunities and challenges
Hurricane Irma: Flooding
from storm surge (simulated)
4 m (12 ^)
3 m (9 ^)
2 m (6 ^)
1 m (0 ^)
0
Water level
(above ground)
Influence of hurricane forecast
errors on storm surge
forecasts

15. From Research to Industry
Visualizing forecast information to help
communicate risks
Video depic?ng hurricane storm surge flooding

16. From Research to Industry
Visualizing forecast information to help
communicate risks
Video depic?ng hurricane storm surge flooding

17. Continued investment in physical and
social sciences research …
Photo credits (clockwise from top le^): Jus?n Sullivan/GETTY, REUTERS/Mike Segar,
Courtney Sacco/Corpus Chris? Caller-Times via AP, David J. Phillip/AP
• Will enable continued improvements
to forecast information and decisions
• For “everyday” weather and multiple
types of hazards
• In the context of forecasting
capabilities at different lead times
and modern information technologies