This research essay will attempt to explore the understanding that accurate computer simulation could vastly benefit the future mitigation and monitoring of orbital debris.

1. ASSESSMENT 1:
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
A Research Proposal: Wordcount 3000, References
and Appendix
S195215
S195215@uos.ac.uk

2. How can the use of computer simulation benefit the
monitoring and mitigation of orbital debris?
S195215
June 2019
IPS: BSc (Hons) in Digital and Technology Solutions (Software
Engineering) (Degree Apprenticeship) – IDSSDAP4

3. Tableof Contents
1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................3
2. Data Analysis.........................................................................................................................3
3. Research Proposal .................................................................................................................4
4. Research Method ..................................................................................................................5
5. Literature Review ..................................................................................................................5
6. Design and Creation ..............................................................................................................5
6.1 Constructs..........................................................................................................................5
6.2 Models...............................................................................................................................6
6.3 Methods ............................................................................................................................6
6.4 Instantiations.....................................................................................................................6
6.4.1 Software.................................................................................................................................................................6
6.4.2 Hardware...............................................................................................................................................................6
6.5 Analysis..............................................................................................................................7
6.5.1 Test Data Collection.............................................................................................................................................7
6.5.2 Probable Results of Analysis...............................................................................................................................7
5. Results of Research................................................................................................................7
6. References .............................................................................................................................9
Appendix..................................................................................................................................10

4. 1. Introduction
Initially, the term “space debris” referred to “the occurrence of naturaldebris within the solar system such
as asteroids, comets, and meteoroids” (ARES, 2019). However, through initiatives such as National
Aeronautics and Space Administrations (NASA) Orbital Debris Program (1979), this terminology
extended to describe the artificial debris produced by objects sent into space, such as satellites and
expended rocket stages.
This research essay will attempt to explore the understanding that accurate simulation could vastly benefit
the future mitigation and monitoring of orbital debris. International concern and awareness for orbital
debris has substantially increased over the last decade (Hildreth, S.A, et al. 2014), therefore research into
the importance of monitoring this problem could allow for further progress towards feasible solutions. This
research essay intends to explore previously designed simulation models and research into the best way to
utilise the software and why it could benefit the mitigation and monitoring of space debris for present and
future generations.
2. Data Analysis
Monitoring orbital debris is essential for current and future space flights/satellites to avoid colliding with
the debris. As of 2019, the number of regularly tracked orbital debris, located and maintained by the Space
Surveillance Networks (SSN) is around 22,300 (ESA, 2019). However, the overall number of debris
objects in orbit estimated through statistical models is considered to be over 128 million objects (ESA
2019). Many of these objects range from 1mm to 1cm in size, however small objects travelling at high
velocities will still cause large amounts of damage, and along with it more debris (National Research
Council, 1995).
In 1978, a paper was published by a NASA scientist, Donald J. Kessler (Kessler. D. J. et. al. 2010)
explaining a scenario he named ‘Kessler Syndrome’. This term was used to describe the inevitable event of
continuous space debris collisions; that as it occurs more frequently, and these events generate more debris
that a collision cascade would occur. He suggested that if space debris is not handled soon, space travel
might not be possible for thousands of years due to earth’s orbit being too dangerous to enter.
To understand this effect better, the graph below visualises the increase in artificial tracked objects over
the last 60 years. This Graph was created by NASA’s chief Scientist for Orbital Debris in 2016. (Liou, J.
C. 2016).

5. The significant spikes in tracked objects seen above are prime examples of the dangers orbital collisions
and explosions present within earth’s orbit. The more this occurs, the risk of satellites and stations being
hit will increase. As a result, the correct simulations need to be developed to ensure avoidance of these
objects in space. In addition, there needs to be an increased awareness internationally about the dangers of
destroying objects in space, such as Fengyun-1C in 2007 (Johnson, L. N. et. al. 2008).
To begin encouraging solutions to this problem, a timescale and urgency should be defined to inspire
action towards a feasible solution. Projected simulations would allow for accurate estimations of how long
we have before a collision cascade would likely occur. This is one of the main reasons this research project
will take place, as if it fails to achieve anything more than increase awareness, it has still had a beneficial
impact.
3. Research Proposal
This research project will be an investigation into various existing types of orbital debris simulation
software. The conducted research will allow an improved design to be suggested that could incorporate all
beneficial features that help with monitoring and mitigating orbital debris. A more modern combination of
multiple existing systems could be achieved through this research, much like how NASA currently
implements lots of space monitoring tools to help with space flights shown below in figure 1 (National
Research Council, 2011).
Figure 1 is an example of a large variety of systems interacting together. Conceptually, this could be
achieved for a more defined example, such as an improved space debris simulation. This final simulation
proposal could then be developed to not only monitor space debris accurately but prioritise debris that
should be removed from space before causing further debris.
Figure 1.

6. 4. Research Method
The proposed research will ideally be conducted by 2 researchers over the period of 10 months. It will
consist of a 2-month review of existing simulation studies to identify the key benefits and strengths of
existing orbital debris simulation software. This will be conducted as a secondary literature research,
summarising the synthesis of previous work, and exploring how alternative simulations achieve different
results. This will be followed by a 6-month design period, during which the researchers will propose a
design model for an improved orbital debris simulation software; resulting in functional software that can
then be tested over the course of 2 months.
5. Literature Review
The initial review will result in the researchers reading and interpreting existing material to identify and
critically analyse possible flaws and benefits to orbital debris simulation software. Firstly, a preliminary
list will be produced, containing a large selection of plausible simulation models to be implemented. To
approach this efficiently, the two researchers can split the list to research topics separately. Each type of
simulation will then be investigated by the given researchers in detail, critically analysing the suitability
and effectiveness of each design. When performing post analysis on the literature, each researcher should
perform this task on the opposite list, this will encourage error checking and prevent an opinion bias to the
found research. To successfully achieve this task the researchers are required to retrieve suitable amounts
of independent sources from external parties; integrating shared knowledge and understanding of orbital
debris simulation throughout their study. To ensure peoples work is used ethically, literature used to help
produce the functional model should be acknowledged and cited correctly.
6. Design and Creation
Due to the research being conducted around a physical simulation of data, the researchers should approach
the task in a practical manner. Functioning implementations of the designed simulation should be
developed to test the suitability and applicability of the findings made. To ensure the researchers remain
within suitable ethical standards, they will be required to use fake test data for their functioning model.
Sensitive data will remain unpublished if the researchers obtain access to this information through contact
with external bodies.
The research process will operate the four main aspects of the design and creation format. The constructs
will consider the conceptual entities and objects, the models will integrate combinations of these constructs
within a designated situation, the methods will achieve guidance for the models, and the instantiations will
implement artefacts that demonstrate the working system (Miller, S. 1990).
6.1 Constructs
The constructs for the research will consist of the components for a visual simulation of present and
projected data. The simulation will need to operate within a powerful computer system and server, both
compatible with the software language being used and the data format being processed. There will be a
variety of devices being used alongside the system, including personal computers, satellites, optical
telescopes (both ground and orbital) and scientific complementary metal-oxide semiconductor cameras
(sCMOS) for obtaining the orbital data (Dennis, A. 2018).

7. 6.2 Models
The Overarching model will be based around the LEGEND debris model produced and published by
NASA (2001). To briefly describe, this model is intended to track both low earth orbit (LEO) and
geosynchronous equatorial orbital (GEO) debris; coverage for the near-Earth space between 200 and
40,000 km. The chosen design model will help the researchers attempt to achieve an accurate simulation of
historical debris populations in LEO, along with the ability to make future projections on orbital debris,
much like LEGEND’s design (Liou et al. 2004; Liou 2005). This model adopts a deterministic approach to
mimic known historical population records of debris. This data could be added to comprehensive internal
database, that can then store the large amounts of data needed to track debris as small as 1mm in size,
without requiring information from external systems, which is currently what LEGEND has to do. The
model also stores data surrounding orbital breakups through reproduced simulations. This incorporates the
size, area-to-mass, and velocity distributions of the breakup fragments (Johnson et al. 2001). Tracked
orbital debris could be propagated ahead of time, allowing the removal of all decayed objects from the
database (Kessler, D. J. et. al. 1989). The model will include perturbations that occur within the orbit
propagation such as Earth’s atmospheric drag, Earth’s shadow effects, solar radiation pressure, and solar-
lunar gravitational perturbations. Data manipulative events such as solar flux’s and Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) (Antiochos, S. K. et. al. 1999) can be processed into the model externally to update tracking
information if an increase in orbital debris decay is possible.
6.3 Methods
With the model approach discussed above, a more technical methodology can be achieved for guidance.
The focal point for the intended model is to achieve a functioning internal system that both hardware and
software requirements can be scalable. The researchers should achieve a complete test dataset, ranging
from orbital debris data to benchmarking readings for the model’s performance. This would allow a more
accurate analysis of the achieved system, as benchmarking the same dataset will allow for consistent
results throughout the progression of the model being designed. The researchers should also utilise a test-
driven approach to designing the software, this will allow for error checking and minimise security flaws;
an important ethical requirement for a system that could hold confidential data.
6.4 Instantiations
6.4.1 Software
The vast majority of orbital simulation models implement data and statistics from other, already
functioning models. This therefore requires the final design to be developed in a widely supported and
accessible language, such as C, C++, Java etc. this software is also required to produce large datasets from
previously designed algorithms that would need to be used in this model. As this research approach is
focused on quantitative results, statistics will be visually represented through the use of graphs and
diagrams. Furthermore, algorithms that have already been written will be used to allow the model to
produce and export graphs and visual representations of predicted debris and perturbations such as solar
fluxes. To visually export data, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) would need designing to act as a platform
for viewing the data.
6.4.2 Hardware
The hardware will need to be progressively chosen and updated based on the requirements of the dataset
size and processing power of external interacting systems (importing other models’ data, running
algorithms). These requirements will determine hardware specifications such as RAM size, number of
CPU cores, Cooling system requirements for servers etc.

8. 6.5 Analysis
The different artefacts produced will require numerous testing and benchmarking to be run. Testing is a
crucial stage in analysing a functional model that has been created. This will allow performance testing to
assess the output speed and efficiency of datasets, along with the hardware architecture being evaluated for
usage and speed to find the optimal specifications for the system. To ensure an accurate comparison is
achieved with performance testing, they should also be run on an existing model to compare outcomes and
identify any anomalous results. Publicly accessible models could be feasible, such as ORDEM 3.0
designed by NASA’s Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science (ARES) department; which is
available to download and use as a U.S Government information system (NASA, 2014).
6.5.1 Test Data Collection
Testing parameters will categorise under two areas, pre-emptive and reactive testing. Tests will be
performed multiple times to obtain a representative set of data for statistical analysis later on (Dewberry.
C, 2004). Throughout these tests, data will be collected for the following fields:
Pre-emptive Testing
- Debris Decay timescale generations per second
- Database update runtime for debris breakup probability calculations
- LEO collision probability timescale for two specific debris objects
- Calculation time for maximum lifecycle of debris in LEO
Reactive Testing
- CPU/GPU temperature readings when exporting visual graphs of datasets
- Memory consumption for generating algorithmic results on hardware
Alongside testing the data, performance reports surrounding the software and source code will uncover
specific processes and algorithms that take the longest to perform and require optimising. This will also
allow for benchmark profiles to be produced, which could provide information on which areas use the
most memory; potentially allowing hardware optimisation in future model versions.
6.5.2 Probable Results of Analysis
Combining multiple systems to perform in unison will probably cause performance and hardware
requirement issues. Integration has already been achieved in previous systems by organisations such as
NASA (see figure 1), therefore during the preliminarily literature review, findings may result in a better
understanding of how to achieve this most effectively. Achieving this model without bottlenecking the
hardware requirements should results in high levels of efficiency. There will be no need for external
communication between systems and parsing data between different models and processes willnot be
necessary. Everything is stored in the same place, allowing for faster process times when updating or
interacting with the database. Alongside the literature review, research into different devices and IoT
systems that could help with the design model may discover compatibility issues. The chosen OS system
and the devices hardware should be in the best interest of being compatible with data that will be imported
from existing systems. This may warrant further research in the future as to why certain systems will be
incompatible with the data required.
5. Results of Research
The overall purpose of the conducted research is to identify various types orbital debris simulations and
suggest an improved design that could help monitor and mitigate orbital debris in Earth’s orbit. This final
simulation proposal should incorporate all the findings from the literature review, while providing a
detailed insight into the current state of orbital debris model capabilities. A critical analysis will help
assess the strengths and weaknesses of current models from a theoreticalviewpoint based on the found
literature. This research will be written and published in the form of an academic paper, including open
source access to all experimentation and source code used for the general public.

9. The design and creation section of the research will account for a working implementation of the designed
system, accompanied by the in-depth explanation of the intended setup to be used for testing and analysing
the chosen implementation; allowing external researchers to verify results for themselves for repeatability
purposes. This will also help other researchers to address further practicalissues surrounding the proposed
orbital debris simulation, which was limited by the time frame of this current research project.

10. 6. References
Antiochos, S. K. et. al. (January, 1999) A model for solar coronal mass ejections. Volume 510, 1st
Edition.
The Astrophysical Journal.
Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science. (2019) Orbital Debris Program Office. [Internet]
Available at: https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/ (Accessed:22nd
June 2019)
Dennis, A. (November, 2018) Ground Based Optical Detector for Space Debris Tracking. [Internet]
Avaiable at: https://andor.oxinst.com/learning/view/article/ground-based-optical-detector-for-space-debris-
tracking (Accessed: 29th
June 2019) Oxford Instruments.
Dewberry. C (2004) Statistical Methods in Organizational Research. Routledge.
ESA. Space Debris Office. (January, 2019) Space Debris By The Numbers. [Internet] Available at:
https://m.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers (Accessed:
23rd
June 2019)
Hildreth, S. A. (2014) Threats to U.S. National Security Interests in Space: Orbital Debris Mitigation and
Removal. Congressional Research Service.
Johnson, L. N. et. al. (August, 2008) The characteristics and consequences of the break-up of the
Fengyun-1C spacecraft. Volume 63, Pages 128-135. ELSEVIER.
Johnson. N. L. et. al. (June 2008) History of on-orbit satellite fragmentations. 14th
Edition. National
Aeronautics and Space Administrations.
Kessler, D. J. et. al. (April, 1989) Orbital Debris Environment for Spacecraft Designed to Operate in Low
Earth Orbit. NASA Technical Memorandum.
Kessler. D. J. et. al. (2010) The Kessler Syndrome: Implications to Future Space Operations. NASA.
(Accessed:25th
June 2019)
Liou, J. C. (October, 2016) Growth of Orbital Debris. [Internet] Available at:
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20160012733.pdf (Accessed:26th
June 2019)
Liou, J. C. and Johnson, N. L. (2006) Instability of the Present LEO Satellite Populations. NASA GOV.
Liou, J. C. et. al. (2004) LEGEND – a three-dimensional LEO-to-GEO debris evolutionary model. Volume
34, Issue 5, Pages 981-986. ELSEVIER.
Miller, S. (1990) Experimental Design and Statistics. 2nd Edition. Metheun.
NASA Technology Transfer Program. (2014) Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), Version 3.
[Internet] Available at: https://software.nasa.gov/software/MSC-25457-1 (Accessed:2nd
July 2019)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Johnson Space Center. (1979) Orbital Debris Program
Office. [Internet] Available at: https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/ (Accessed:22nd
June 2019)
National Research Council. (July, 1995) Orbital Debris: A Technical Assessment. [Internet] Available at:
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=E1ObAgAAQBAJ&dq=orbital+debris+damage&lr=&source=gbs_na
vlinks_s (Accessed: 25th
June 2019)
National Research Council. (2011) Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft. The National Academies
Press.

11. Appendix
Definition 1:
Perturbation (astronomy): alterations to an object's orbit (e.g., caused by gravitational interactions with
other bodies)
- Bate, Mueller, White (1971): ch, 9, p. 385.
Definition 2:
A Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is an Earth-centered orbit with an altitude of 2,000 km (1,200 mi) or less
(approximately one-third of the radius of Earth), or with at least 11.25 periods per day (an orbital period of
128 minutes or less) and an eccentricity less than 0.25.
- http://www.unoosa.org/documents/pdf/spacelaw/sd/IADC-2002-01-IADC-Space_Debris-Guidelines-
Revision1.pdf
Definition 3:
A geostationary orbit, often referred to as a geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO), is a circular
geosynchronous orbit 35,786 km (22,236 mi) above Earth's equator and following the direction of Earth's
rotation.
- http://www.unoosa.org/documents/pdf/spacelaw/sd/IADC-2002-01-IADC-Space_Debris-Guidelines-
Revision1.pdf
Definition 4:
spread and promote (an idea, theory, etc.) widely.
- https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/propagate