Downloaded 12 times
Uploaded byUCAR - Atmospheric & Earth System Science
Fire Modeling - Understanding Wildland Fires
The document discusses the growing challenges of wildfires, highlighting that 95% of the area burned is caused by only 3% of the fires, with larger fires, referred to as 'megafires,' becoming more common. It emphasizes the importance of fire modeling in fire management and the need for better physical models and data assimilation to enhance predictive capabilities and protect lives and property. Additionally, it notes that suppression costs are increasing but only represent a small fraction of the overall expenses associated with wildfires.
More Related Content
Similar to Fire Modeling - Understanding Wildland Fires
More from UCAR - Atmospheric & Earth System Science
Fire Modeling - Understanding Wildland Fires
- 1. Fire Modeling Michael J.Gollner Assistant Professor Department of Fire Protection Engineering University of Maryland, College Park UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: How new research can help fire-management efforts to protect lives and property
- 2. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFire Problem 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 NumberofFires(K) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Year AreaBurned(Kkm 2 ) National Interagency Fire Center Statistics
- 3. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFire Problem 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 NumberofFires(K) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Year AreaBurned(Kkm 2 ) Increasing Area Burned Similar Number of Fires National Interagency Fire Center Statistics 95% of area burned by 3% of fires!
- 4. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFire Problem 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 NumberofFires(K) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Year AreaBurned(Kkm 2 ) Increasing Area Burned Similar Number of Fires National Interagency Fire Center Statistics Larger Fires are Occurring More Often 95% of area burned by 3% of fires!
- 5. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFire Problem 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 NumberofFires(K) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Year AreaBurned(Kkm 2 ) 1980 2000 2020 0 $500M $1B $1.5B $2B FederalSuppressionCosts Year Suppression Costs Similarly Increasing National Interagency Fire Center Statistics 95% of area burned by 3% of fires!
- 6. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFire Problem 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 NumberofFires(K) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Year AreaBurned(Kkm 2 ) 1980 2000 2020 0 $500M $1B $1.5B $2B FederalSuppressionCosts Year Suppression Costs Similarly Increasing National Interagency Fire Center Statistics Suppression is only small fraction of real costs 95% of area burned by 3% of fires!
- 7. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFire Problem 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 NumberofFires(K) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Year AreaBurned(Kkm 2 ) Increasing Area Burned Similar Number of Fires National Interagency Fire Center Statistics Larger Fires are Occurring More Often “Megafires”
- 8. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: CedarFire San Diego, CA (2003) 2,200+ Homes Lost $27 million – Suppression ~$1 billion – Insured Losses 14 Fatalities
- 9. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: Ft.McMurray Fire Alberta, Canada, 2016 $3.58 billion Insured Damages ~$9.5 billion direct & indirect 1.45 million acres 2,400 buildings destroyed 2 indirect fatalities CBC News, W. Snowdon, Jan 17, 2017
- 10. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheKnoxville Mercury
- 11. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: FirebrandIgnitions Luis Hidalgo/AP Union Tribune
- 12. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: FirebrandIgnitions Luis Hidalgo/AP Union Tribune Most homes at the Wildland-Urban Interface ignite due to small, flying embers, not the main fire Maranghides, Mell, 2009, A Case Study of a Community Affected by the Witch and Guejito Fires (NIST TN
- 13. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: Compiledand mapped by the Fire Modeling Institute; Fire, Fuel and Smoke Program; Rocky Mountain Research Station; Missoula, MT; 4/5/2012
- 14. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: Hazards YarnellHill, AZ (2013) 19 Firefighter Fatalities Lack of situational awareness & communication
- 15. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: FireModels: A critical tool • Operational Fire Management • Active Fires • Fire Danger Rating • Dispatch Rules • Evacuations • Planning • Risk Analysis • Fuel Treatment Design • Management Plans • Training • Fire Behavior • NWCG S-Courses • Research • Climate • Ecology • Fire Behavior Prescribed burn - White Mountain National Forest (USDA FS) Probability contours and exposure of resources and assets. Calkin, Finney, et al.
- 16. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: ModelingFire: The Challenge • Fire modeling occurs over many scales
- 17. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: ModelingFire: The Challenge • Fire modeling occurs over many scales Flame Dynamics Home Ignition Smoke and Emissions Topography Wind and WeatherFuels and Ecology
- 18. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: ModelingFire: The Challenge • Fire modeling occurs over many scales • Many disparate communities – Foresters, Ecologists – Engineers – Atmospheric Scientists – Remote Sensing
- 19. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: ModelingFire: The Challenge • Fire modeling occurs over many scales • Many disparate communities – Foresters, Ecologists – Engineers – Atmospheric Scientists – Remote Sensing • Lack of good data – Most on-the-ground data from smaller, prescribed burns – Satellites lack spatial, temporal resolution
- 20. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: CurrentState of the Art • Empirically-based Models – BehavePlus (Rothermel/USFS RMRS Missoula) – FARSITE (Finney/USFS RMRS Missoula) – FlamMap (Finney/USFS RMRS Missoula) – WFDSS (Finney/Calkin) – Incorporating Fire Spread with Risk Management
- 21. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: CurrentState of the Art • Empirically-based Models – BehavePlus (Rothermel/USFS RMRS Missoula) – FARSITE (Finney/USFS RMRS Missoula) – FlamMap (Finney/USFS RMRS Missoula) – WFDSS (Finney/Calkin) – Incorporating Fire Spread with Risk Management • Coupled Atmospheric Models (weather + surface) – WRF-Fire (Coen/NCAR) • Incorporate weather with empirical surface model – FireTEC (Rodd Linn/Los Alamos National Lab) • Incorporate weather with semi-physical surface model (slow, research only) – Fire Dynamics Simulator (Mell/McGrattan – NIST/USFS) • CFD with focus on Wildland-Urban Interface
- 22. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: CurrentState of the Art • Empirically-based Models – BehavePlus (Rothermel/USFS RMRS Missoula) – FARSITE (Finney/USFS RMRS Missoula) – FlamMap (Finney/USFS RMRS Missoula) – WFDSS (Finney/Calkin) – Incorporating Fire Spread with Risk Management • Coupled Atmospheric Models (weather + surface) – WRF-Fire (Coen/NCAR) • Incorporate weather with empirical surface model – FireTEC (Rodd Linn/Los Alamos National Lab) • Incorporate weather with semi-physical surface model (slow, research only) – Fire Dynamics Simulator (Mell/McGrattan – NIST/USFS) • CFD with focus on Wildland-Urban Interface • Mapping – Fuel Mapping (Landfire, Landsat) – Satellite Fire Detection (MODIS, VIIRS) – Airborn IR (NIROPS)
- 23. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFuture • Need for a better physical model. – How do Wildfires Spread? Missoula Comb Burn
- 24. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFuture • Need for a better physical model. – How do Wildfires Spread? – Rothermel Spread Equation • Basis for all US Systems (1960’s) • Not because it’s right, but because its’ useful Texas Prescribed Fire Crown Fire Experiments Missoula Comb Burn ScalingKnowledgeUp
- 25. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFuture • Need for a better physical model. – How do Wildfires Spread? – Rothermel Spread Equation • Basis for all US Systems (1960’s • Not because it’s right, but because its’ useful • Data Assimilation – Filling the gap between models and missing data
- 26. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFuture • Need for a better physical model. – How do Wildfires Spread? – Rothermel Spread Equation • Basis for all US Systems (1960’s • Not because it’s right, but because its’ useful • Data Assimilation – Filling the gap between models and missing data • Improved Measurements – Higher resolution and time response – Improve understanding and response – New satellites, UAV’s, larger fires, etc. NASA’s Ihanka Unmanned Aerial System Improved Spatial Measurements with VIIRS (UMD/UCAR)
- 27. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES: TheFuture • Need for a better physical model. – How do Wildfires Spread? – Rothermel Spread Equation • Basis for all US Systems (1960’s • Not because it’s right, but because its’ useful • Data Assimilation – Filling the gap between models and missing data • Improved Measurements – Higher resolution and time response – Improve understanding and response – New satellites, UAV’s, larger fires, etc. • Wildland-Urban Interface – Tools and knowledge critically needed!
- 28.