The National Transport Authority developed the Regional Modelling System (RMS) to support evidence-based decision making. The RMS integrates transport, land use, and demographic data to model travel demand across Ireland. It allows the NTA to evaluate policies and infrastructure projects, maximize transport system efficiency, and ensure value for money. The RMS was customized for Irish conditions based on extensive data sources. It consists of regional multimodal models that cover all modes of transport nationally.
SEAI - National Energy Research and Policy Conference 2021, Session 1
1. National Energy Research
and Policy Conference
The role of public policy for decarbonising
Ireland’s transport sector
Session: Connecting Research & Policy
2. Contents
Policy Context
Scale of the challenge 4
Climate Commitments 5
Challenges and Opportunities 6
Energy in Transport
Modal Shift & Behaviour Change 8
Supporting the Transition 9
Renewable Fuels Policy 10
Policy and Research
Opportunities 12
Guiding Principles 13
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 2
Climate &
Sustainability
Ensuring that our
transport modes are
environmentally,
economically and
socially sustainable.
Department of Transport Statement of Strategy 2021-
2023
3. Policy Context
Delivering Greener Transport
transport networks and services that are environmentally, economically and socially
sustainable
decarbonisation of transport and low carbon technology
adaptation of our critical transport infrastructure and services
investment in active travel, public transport, greenways and alternative technologies
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 3
Section 1
4. Scale of the Challenge
• Transport – at 20% of national emissions a
significant role to play in the overall national
decarbonisation effort.
• Road transport is largest contributor of
emissions, particularly the private car.
• COVID-19: there was a reduction of ~14% in
transport emissions in 2020 compared to 2019.
• Demographic and economic growth expected
out to 2030: increased travel demand.
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~49% ~21% ~9% ~4.5%
Dublin city centre during
lockdown 2020
% of land transport emissions by vehicle segment (2020).
10. Renewable Fuels Policy
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 10
INCREASE THE
BIOFUEL
OBLIGATION
PROMOTE
RENEWABLE FUELS
IN DEVELOPMENT
ENSURE
SUSTAINABILITY
11. The future for transport energy?…
EU Green Deal & Fit for 55 Proposals
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 11
4.5%
3.7%
0.5%
1.0%
0.4%
2.2%
0.0%
2.6%
0.5%
2.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2020 2030
Development of the share of
renewable energy consumption
in transport
Renewable electricity
Green H2 and synthetic fuels based on H2
Advanced biofuels
Annex IX Part B biofuels
Conventional biofuels
• Target to reduce GHG emissions by 13 % + credit
mechanism to promote electrification and help
optimise emission savings of renewable fuels
• Electrification helps to reduce energy consumption in
transport
• Sub-targets for RFNBOs (2,6 %) and advanced
biofuels (2,2 %) ensure uptake of innovative
renewable fuels
• Refuel initiatives should create a pull effect for
renewable fuels in the maritime and aviation sector
13. Ongoing and
Planned
Research
Opportunities
~ transport
energy
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Alignment with international research ~ ITF, OECD, IPCC, etc. and
National Research and Innovation Strategy
Collaboration on research in support of climate action (Climate Research
Coordination Group) ~ EPA, SEAI, Academic Community, etc.
Supporting policy on adaptation (Sectoral Plan) and air quality (UTRAP)
Sustainable Mobility - modal shift and behaviour change
Incentivising take up of EV and other alternative renewable fuel
technology
Renewable fuels sustainability, availability, infrastructure and regulation ~
hydrogen?
Transport Modes Focus ~ decarbonising HDV, aviation, maritime
Research Calls and Fast-Track to Policy
Focusing resources ~ funding streams and investment
14. Guiding Principles
o Research to support implementation and delivery on
commitments and targets ~ what works?
o Continue to build the evidence-base for decision
making concerning future developments,
opportunities and challenges
o Building upon connections and synergies ~through
existing and new collaborative networks
o Involvement of stakeholders – policy makers, agencies,
industry, academic and research community, and public
engagement ~ creating deliberative opportunities that
support policy and promote buy-in
o Continue the approach to co-funded research projects
within managed programmes based upon continuous
review to identify gaps and focus priorities.
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14
18. Recent Trends
Trends since 2005 and impact of COVID-19
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Section 1
19. Greenhouse gas emissions 2019
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 19
Agriculture
(excluding energy)
34%
Other non-energy
7%
Transport
21%
Other energy
related
38%
(Source EPA)
20. Greenhouse gas emissions 2019
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 20
[CELLRANGE]
Agriculture
(excluding energy)
[CELLRANGE]
Other non-energy
[CELLRANGE]
Transport
[CELLRANGE]
Other energy
related
(Source EPA)
60 MtCO₂
21. -5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Mt
CO₂
Change in 2020
Electricity Transport excluding international aviation Heat Total excluding international aviation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MtCO₂
Energy CO2 Emissions (excluding international aviation)
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22. -5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Mt
CO₂
Change in 2020
Electricity Transport Heat Total
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MtCO₂
Energy CO2 Emissions (including international aviation)
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23. 2020 change in transport energy use
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-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Private car HGV LGV Public
passenger &
rail
Navigation,
Pipeline,
domestic
aviation
Fuel tourism Unspecified Total (excl.
international
aviation)
International
aviation
ktCO₂
-21%
-9%
-10%
-67%
-16%
-64%
24. Transport CO2 Emissions 2019 (excluding international aviation)
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25. Transport fuel mix 2020
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4.5% Renewables
0.2% Electricity
(100% imported)
(77% imported)
95.3% Fossil fuels
(>50% Rail)
27. National Energy Projections & the role of SEAI
• Under the Sustainable Energy Act 2002, SEAI has
the legal function to compile and disseminate
projections relating to energy production and use.
• The projections have been produced annually from
2006 in collaboration with ESRI and other key
stakeholders (DCCAE, EPA, DPER, DTTAS, EirGrid,
ESB, GNI, CRU, UCC, others).
• SEAI provides the analytical basis of the National
Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).
• NECP modelling informs the setting of Ireland’s
renewable energy commitments for 2030 and
underpins EPA energy-related emissions analysis.
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28. National Energy Modelling Framework (NEMF)
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COSMO & I3E macroeconomic fuel projections
(Residential/Services/Industry/Agriculture/Transport/Power)
Calibrated baseline stock heating demand
(Residential/Services/Industry/Agriculture)
Heat Sector
archetype
New Build
Projections
PLEXOS
(Power)
Transport
Module
Energy Efficiency
model
BioHEAT model
Infrastructure
module
Energy Scenario
module & CBA
Input
Off model calculation
Integrated modules
Output
Energy Demand
by Fuel & Sector
Economy-wide
CBA outputs
Target & Policy
achievement
monitoring
Transport
Module
Biofuel Use
Electricity Cost & Bioenergy Use
Iteration for
convergence on
demand and cost
Energy Efficiency
& Renewable
Heating uptake
Infrastructure Costs
EV, CNG, Biofuel Uptake
Electricity Demand
29. 2020 Projections - Modelled Scenarios
Two policy scenarios were modelled, both underpinned by low energy price projections
and an ESRI macroeconomic scenario that captured the COVID19 impacts:
• Projections With Existing Measures (WEM): policies implemented and adopted by
the end of 2019. This includes a varying carbon tax that increases to €80 per tonne
by 2030.
• Projections With Additional Measures (WAM): policies from the 2019 Climate
Action Plan and a varying carbon tax that increase by €7.50 per annum to 2020 and
reaches €100 per tonne by 2030.
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30. Key Transport Policy Assumptions
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 30
With Existing Measures scenario
• Biofuels Obligations Scheme - statutory target of approximately 12% applies from 1
January 2020. Diesel is a 6% blend (B6.9) and petrol is 5% blend (E5) on average.
• Approximately 556,544 Electric Vehicles on the road by 2030.
With Additional Measures scenario
• The Biofuel Obligations Scheme is developed
further - incremental increases with 10% blend for
petrol (E10) and a 12% blend for diesel (B12) in
place in 2030.
• Approximately 935,800 Electric Vehicles on the
road by 2030 based on CAP 2019.
EV Stock Projections
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
WEM WAM
31. Transport Projections – Renewable Energy Share
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 31
2020 2021 2030 WEM 2030 WAM
13%
7%
6%
5%
Renewable Electricity
Advanced Biodiesel
Biodiesel
Biogasoline
• Including multipliers
RES-T is 17% (WEM) &
34%(WAM) – 14%
target.
• Transport contribution to
overall renewable share
is 2.5%(WEM) &
4.4%(WAM).
• Overall renewable
energy share for all
sectors is 24%(WEM) &
35%(WAM).
32. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
MtCO2
eq
WEM WAM
Transport Projections – Translating to Emissions
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 32
11.6 MtCO2
9.1 MtCO2
(Source: EPA)
By 2030 WAM scenario
results in:
3.1MtCO₂ / 26% reduction
from 2018
Average 3.4% reduction
per annum between 2021-
2030.
33. Recent Updates & Next Steps
• Increased emissions reduction target for
all sectors with a 42-50% reduction
targeted for the transport sector by
• Next round of projections are currently
being modelled and include the following
changes:
– WAM scenario to include additional
measures outlined in CAP 2021;
Increased demand management & modal
shift,
Increased biodiesel blending rates,
Increased number of electric PSV & low
emissions HGVs.
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 33
Demand
Management &
Modal Shift
20%
Electrification
of Passenger
Cars 38%
Low Emissions
Vans 3%
Improved HGV
Technology 4%
Increased
Biofuel Blend
Rates 16%
PT
Electrification
6%
Further
Measures 13%
-7 MtCO₂
(Source: CAP 2021)
36. Contents
What is the NTA
Vision 04
Mission Statement 05
Activities 06
Core Analytical Tools
Why Develop the RMS 11
RMS in Detail 17
Use Cases
Current Projects 22
Specific environmental examples 37
Key Questions for the Future
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 36
Closing the gap –
strategies to address
emissions targets and
market trends
“
”
37. What is the NTA
vision, mission and areas of activity
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 37
Section 1
38. The National Transport Authority (NTA) is a statutory non-
commercial body under the aegis of the Department of
Transport. Established in 2009, it derives its statutory powers
primarily from the:
• Dublin Transport Authority Act 2008 (No. 15 of 2008),
• Public Transport Regulation Act 2009 (No. 37 of 2009),
• Vehicle Clamping Act 2015 (No. 13 of 2015)
• Public Transport Act 2016 (No. 3 of 2016)
Vision
To provide high quality, accessible, sustainable transport connecting
people across Ireland.
What is the NTA
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 38
39. Mission
To deliver our vision we will
• Secure the provision of an efficient, accessible and integrated
transport system in rural and urban Ireland.
• Transform and elevate customers’ transport experience.
• Regulate privately operated transport services for the benefit
of consumers.
• Contribute to the effective integration of transport and land
use policies.
• Advance Ireland’s transition to a low emissions transport
system.
What is the NTA
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 39
41. Core analytical tools
The Regional Modelling System and why it was developed
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 41
Section 2
42. All the NTA functions require informed and robust
decision making to:
• meet wider societal objectives;
• maximise the use and efficiency of the existing
transport system;
• match future growth with the best transport
solutions; and
• ensure value for money.
Regional Modelling System supports strategic planning
and scheme planning and design by providing evidence
to assist in the decision making process.
Why was the Regional Modelling
System Developed
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 42
43. The Regional Modelling System has been developed :
• following an extensive review of NTA needs;
• making best use of existing transport, land use and
demographic data to meet those requirements;
• using the most appropriate modelling procedures;
and
• applying standard approaches for all components to
ensure consistency in appraisal and design.
How was the Regional Modelling
System Developed
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 43
44. Wealth of observed information regarding travel demand and
demographics from
• NTA - National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and Airport
Passenger surveys;
• CSO - Census - Place of Work, School College (POWSCAR), Small
Area Population Statistics (SAPS);
• Traffic counts, Public Transport ticket and service use;
• Traffic signal system data, journey time data
• Road network (lanes, speeds, signals etc.), all Public Transport
services, networks and fare data, Cycle networks, Walk networks
How was the Regional Modelling
System Developed
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47. Core analytical tools
Details of Regional Modelling System – technical/coverage
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 47
Section 2
Core analytical tools
52. Use cases
Examples of current projects
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Section 3
53. The Regional Modelling System is widely use:
• Department of Transport;
• Environmental Protection Agency;
• Transport Infrastructure Ireland;
• Dublin Airport Authority, Ports of Cork and Dublin;
• Local Authorities;
• Private developers; and
• Universities.
Users
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 53
61. Developing CO2 Baselines In
Transport Industry
Environmental Appraisal Tool estimates level of emissions (ten
categories) generated by road traffic.
As a result of on-going projects with Codema it use is part of their
reference document: CO2 Baselines in Transport Industry: A Step-
by-Step Guide For Your Local Authority
61
National Energy Research and Policy Conference
62. National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Programme under Section 65 of the EPA Act-
Five Year Programme
Environmental Noise Directive under The European Communities (Environmental
Noise) Regulations 2018, S.I. No. 549 of 2018, implements EC Directive 2002/49/EC
(END) – R4 Strategic Noise Mapping Major Roads
EPA Air Quality monitoring and
Noise mapping
62
National Energy Research and Policy Conference
63. NTA Environmental Appraisal Output (Link-based)
EPA Air Quality monitoring and
Noise mapping
63
National Energy Research and Policy Conference
64. Supporting Department of Transport in the preparation of Climate
Action Plan 2021
• Leverage NHTS and Fleet data understand potential impact of
baskets of measures;
• Utilise Regional modelling System to inform on:
• impact of National Planning Framework growth;
• Behavioural responses (changes in Veh km travelled) to
different measures;
• impact of combinations of measures (changes in Veh km
travelled)
Climate Action Plan Support
64
National Energy Research and Policy Conference
67. Key Questions for the Future
1. Important research questions/areas of focus to support the decarbonisation of
transport to 2050
2. Key policy needs/enablers to accelerate the decarbonisation of Ireland’s transport
sector
National Energy Research and Policy Conference 67
Section 4
68. Graham Brennan
Sustainable Transport Prog Manager
SEAI
National Energy Research & Policy Conference Decarbonising Transport
25th Nov 2021
Progress and Challenges
of Delivering Ireland’s
Electric Vehicle Target
69. Source: SIMI
1) EV Market Progress & Ireland’s Target
2) EV Technology, Trends & Materials
Overview of Presentation
70. 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
EV
Imports
New
PHEV
New
BEV
EV
Registrations
Per
Annum
+130%
Growth in New
Irish Regs so far wrt
All of 2020
Incomplete
Year
Number of EV cars on Irish Roads is now
+43,700 as of end of Oct 2021
Source: SIMI
71. Reaching the 2030 EV Target – Car Stock and %
of All EV Registrations (i.e. New + Import)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
%
of
All
Annual
Registrations
Cumulative
All
EV
Registrations
€135m
of SEAI
grants
What will it cost?
How much EV Infrastructure is
needed?
Source: SEAI
72. Potential Public Charger Only Infrastructure
Cost to 2030 (i.e. no network reinforcements)
2021 Units
Already
installed
Net New
Units
Required
Average Price
per Unit
Total Public
Charging
Infrastructure Cost
to 2030 Target
(mEuro)
AC 1,090 17,084 €16,000 €273m
DC50 108 2,263 €50,000 €113m
DC120+ 50 4,472 €150,000 €671m
Total €1,057m
Note: Assuming Norway rate for AC and average of Norway + Holland for Fast DC
Energy just under 60% of emissions, Transport about 40% of energy related emissions
Ireland unusual in large share of ag, in EU is on average about 10%
Total energy related CO2 emissions (excluding int aviation) fell by 6.3% in 2020. Less than the 7% per annum required every year between 2021 and 2030.
Transport (ex int aviation) fell by 16%.
Private car use fell by 21%
Sizable drop, but less than we would have expected maybe
Including international aviation, total CO2 fell by over 11% and transport fell by 27%
Latest projections are 2020-2030, 2021 currently underway.
Overview of NEMF
Relationship with COSMO I3E ESRI modelIn the process of being updated for 2020 projections
Updated model to used for 2021 projections currently being progressed.
Focus on transport.
Mentioned changes with regard to energy pricing for latest round of projections + new CAP/Inputs
Above have the biggest impact but outline other measures included – EE in vehicles, modal shift, CNG vehicles.
Both scenarios also included for the impact of transport infrastructure projects such as Dart Expansion and BusConnects programme.
With multipliers 17% & 34% but phased out of REDIII as transport target moves to greenhouse gas intensity over % share.
Outline Actual contribution to overall res
30% overall target meet with flexibilities in 2020 projections however target now 50%.
Plus revisions to Renewable Energy Directive II transport targets.
Developed on the Cube platform using Cube for demand modelling, Voyager for PT, walk and cycle assignment, SATURN highway assignment and python scripting
For appraisal we leverage TUBA, CoBaLT, link based implementation of Copert 5, WHO HEAT tool,
Five regional multi modal models – coverage based on city commute boundary
Interesting analysis to see where is lack of PT services by comparing car and PT Journey time.
The left plot is the map to display:
1.Average Journey time difference between PT and Car of the zone
2.The Car Share of zone by the colour of the dot within zone
3.The approximate number of daily trips by the size of the dot within zone
The right plot is the map to display:
1.Gap between actual PT journey time and Target PT journey time
2.Dark Black Zones are those PT actually Journey time is 5 hours more than target Journey time
3.White Zones are those zones with accessible PT service to other zones
2021 (<=Oct) New EVs are +130% up on All 2020 New EVs
2021 (<=Oct) All New Cars = 103,000 (up +17% on 2020)
2020 (<=Oct) All New Cars = 87,672
2021 (<=Oct) EVs represent 16/103 = 15.7% of all New Car Sales
2021 (<=Oct) EVs represent 13.3% of All Registrations (New+Used Imports) = 21/157
2020 (Full Year) EVs represented 7% of All Registrations (New+Used Imports) = 11.462/168
1) If we need 100% sales by 2030 and car makers only output 35% of production as EVs how will we secure an above average supply?
2) Need to maintain strong incentives and supportive market early on and create the basis for high supply.
3) With Brexit our second hand imports will be threatened and continental manufacturers may decide to reduce supply to Britain post Brexit….
4) Assuming 203,000 new registrations required each year and 25% are used imports from UK
4) This is for 30% reduction, a 51% or 71% reduction would bring this much earlier to 100% of all registrations (2024?)
US DOE Targets $125/kWh by 2022
US Government Labs - Argonne & Berkley Labs – prominent leaders in the field and feeding in to US DOE battery programme. IEA HEV partners where Ireland interacts with them.
Common Battery Suppliers
78% of EV batteries come from 4 Suppliers
R&D burden removed from car makers
Common Vehicle Platform used in Multiple Products
VW Group = MEB Platform currently in use with
GM = Global EV Platform
Group PSA = CMP Platform
Li-Ion: Li in Graphite, liquid electrolyte “varnish”, highly flammable, control of moisture
Solid Li Ion: Solid electrolyte, poor conductivity, no dendrites, full Lithium anode, same manufacturing equipment, investments maintained etc, moisture tolerant, safer, cheaper
Solid Li-S: Cheap materials, half the price with x2 energy density, currently low life, however, the bigger the battery the longer the life….equivalent to current H2 storage density
15 yr life time analysis
WTT = Well to Tank
TTW = Tank to Wheels