This document summarizes a presentation on decarbonizing non-urban passenger transport. It finds that demand for such transport is projected to increase significantly by 2050 without policy intervention. Under current policies, CO2 emissions could rise 25% but ambitious policies could cut emissions by 57% through technological improvements, shifting to low-carbon fuels and modes like high-speed rail, and managing demand. For aviation specifically, the presentation recommends establishing long-term decarbonization targets, factoring non-CO2 impacts, supporting recovery packages with decarbonization requirements, international cooperation, carbon pricing, and research into efficient aircraft and sustainable fuels.

1. 2021 OECD Green Growth and Sustainable
Development Forum
Greening medium- and long-distance transport
Jari Kauppila
International Transport Forum 17 November 2021

2. Demand for regional and intercity travel is set
to grow by up to 114%
Non-urban travel demand grows
in all three scenarios
Growth will be particularly
strong in emerging economies
Demand management is difficult
for regional and intercity travel
Demand for non-urban passenger
transport by OECD/Non-OECD
countries
(billion passenger kilometres)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2015 Recover
2050
Reshape+
OECD
countries
Non-OECD
countries
billion
passenger-kilometres
2015 2050
2015
Current
trajectory
(Recover
scenario)
Ambitious policies +
leveraged recovery
(Reshape+ scenario)

3. Depending on policies, CO2 emissions from non-urban
passenger transport could rise almost one fourth or fall
by more than half
Under current policies, CO2
emissions in 2050 would grow
25% from 2015
Ambitious policies could cut CO2
emissions by 57%
Leveraging recovery from the
pandemic crucial and can
speed up the transition
Total CO2 emissions from non-urban
passenger transport
(million tonnes CO2)
2015
2,483
3,097
1,072
2015
Recover
2050
Reshape+
2050
Current trajectory
(Recover scenario)
2050
2015
Current
trajectory
(Recover
scenario)
Ambitious policies +
leveraged recovery
(Reshape+ scenario)

4. Technological improvements offer the most
promising path to decarbonise non-urban
passenger transport
Avoid
Reduce the propensity to fly:
Promote local tourism.
Encourage teleworking and
videoconferencing.
Improve
Promote the use of more energy-
efficient road vehicles.
Encourage new aircraft designs.
Develop hybrid and electric aircraft.
Increase the use of sustainable
aviation fuels.
Shift
Substitute high-speed rail travel for
short-haul flights.
Design recovery packages that help
shift travel to low-carbon mobility.

5. Aviation will recover from the impact of the
pandemic and triple by 2050
Population growth and increasing prosperity drive increased demand in all scenarios.
Passenger transport demand
(billion passenger-kilometres)
Freight transport demand
(billion tonne-kilometres)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2015 2050
Domestic International
3.1x
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2015 2050
Domestic International
2.95
x

6. 6
• Despite significant energy efficiency improvements, air transport one of the most energy-intensive
transport modes
• Additionally, its unique facilitation of long-distance travel radically expands the size of its carbon
footprint
• The robust pre-Covid-19 growth in passenger demand, combined with limited and costly abatement
options and a lack of economic incentives to decarbonise, have raised concerns regarding its alignment
with Paris Agreement
The challenge
Change in energy use,
activity and energy
intensity of passenger air
transport, 2002-2018

7. The emissions trajectory widely depends on
government policy
Under the current policy
trajectory, aviation emissions
are set to rise by a factor of
2.3.
With the right set of policies,
aviation emissions could be
down to almost Covid-19
levels by 2050.
Total aviation CO2 emissions (MtCO2)
Freight
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Recover scenario Reshape scenario Reshape+ scenario

8. Reducing the energy needed for flying
• Energy efficiency improvements: reducing
aircraft weight, thermodynamic efficiency of
the propulsion systems and aerodynamic
characteristics
• Alternative propulsion systems: hybrid-
electric to all-electric aircraft
Switching to low-carbon fuels and other energy
vectors
• Moving from from fossil energy to processes
and feedstocks capable of meeting a number
of sustainability requirements (in particular
low GHG on an LCA basis)
 SAF, electricity, hydrogen
ITF analysis on decarbonizing air transport
Key instruments (focus on aircraft and fuel)

9. Establish a clear long-term vision for
decarbonising air transport by setting
and monitoring emissions reduction
targets aligned with the Paris Agreement
Factor in the non-CO2 climate impacts
of air transport when designing
decarbonisation policies
Decarbonising Air Transport: Recommendations
Integrate clear decarbonisation
requirements into government support
packages helping the sector recover from
the Covid-19 crisis
Support an international approach to
mitigating the climate change impacts of
aviation while implementing
decarbonisation policies
domestically/regionally
Introduce carbon pricing in aviation
(options incl. ETS, LCFS, blending
mandates)
Put in place timely and ambitious fuel
quality requirements to encourage the
take up of sustainable aviation fuels
Strengthen the effectiveness of
regulatory frameworks to further
energy efficiency improvements of
aircraft
Encourage research, development and
deployment of alternative propulsion systems
and clean fuels, supported by clear policy
frameworks for de-risking industry investments to
ramp up fuel production

10. 10
Advancing the Goals of the Paris Agreement through
Transport Actions
Aviation updates to TCAD, in the run-up to COP26, include:
 Reduction of emissions from ground operations at airports
 Carbon labels for flights
 Aviation fuel tax
 Emissions trading for aviation
 Carbon offsetting
 Fuel certification and standardisation based on carbon intensity
ITF Actions
TCAD = A catalogue of effective CO2 mitigation
measures to help policymakers deliver on
decarbonisation goals, also in the aviation sector

11. 11
Driving Implementation Actions project
Objectives
• International coalition for effective climate change policy implementation in the
transportation sector is formed
• The environment for the implementation of sustainable transport policies is
strengthened
• Wider range of countries adopt concrete policy actions
• Innovative transport solutions are scaled up
Three common interest groups (CIG)
• Heavy Duty Road Freight transport
• Aviation
• Maritime transport
Aviation CIG
• 15 countries
• Focus is on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) policies: What works best for bringing
advanced SAF to the market?

12. Contact details:
Decarbonising Transport Initiative: Elisabeth.Windisch@itf-oecd.org;
Pierpaolo.Cazzola@itd-oecd.org
Aviation Common Interest Group: Till.Bunsen@itf-oecd.org
Aviation policy: Jagoda.Egeland@itf-oecd.org
Transport Climate Action Directory: Vatsalya.Sohu@itf-oecd.org