Presentation from Dr Tristan Smith (University College London) to the Cut Carbon Decarbonising Transport Symposium 29.09.20

1. Symposium
29.09.2020

2. Agenda
• Network update
• Emerging insights from the network for:
• road freight
• maritime freight
• Multimodal freight and vision

3. Network update

4. £m’s RCUK investment in decarbonizing maritime £m’s RCUK investment in decarbonizing road freight
30+ Industry, NGO, IGO, govt. representatives, and a decade’s international network building

5. Where we are on general timeline
refine
commission
distil
prep
June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022
1
2
3

6. Finance event
Over 100 attendees from:
- Finance community (15%)
- Government (10%)
- Academia (30%)
- Other stakeholders (associations, tech, media, NGOs) (45%)
• The nature of decisions investors are making today, that
impinge on decarbonization
• The thresholds and accuracy of evidence that are needed to
make decarbonization-aligned decisions
• The parties that need to ‘buy in’ to the evidence/knowledge
to move forwards
Write-up to be circulated…

7. Round 1 call for proposal outcomes
-21 applications received across 4 research questions with total
value of ~£1.4m (fec)
- Over 30 reviewers engaged in the process, equally split between
industry and academic
- 4 applications selected with a value of £235,000 (fec) and bringing
~£165,000 from 18 project partners
- 15 responses on post-application EDI survey sent to lead
applicants. 75% identified as male, 55% 31-40 age category, 55%
identify as white, 95% married, 40% with caring responsibilities.

8. Short projects I: elucidating the
decarbonization levers and role of actors
Investor decision making
Investment decision making
Customer decision making
(supply chain and demand side)
An Integrated System and Service Design Approach
for Decarbonisation of UK Freight Transportation
(INSTINCT)
Understanding freight decarbonization investment decisions
Transport Investment Decisions (TIDE): An exploration of
climate alignment in freight related investment decisions

9. Short projects II: Methods
• How could we use
quant methods/models
for unlocking
investment?
• Qual methods, the
role of social science
for unlocking
investment
Co-produced route-mapping to accelerate freight
decarbonization: a transdisciplinary learning and decision
framework

10. DfT
MCA
Current interfaces to govts.
Bob Moran – DD head of env strategy
Morna Cannon and team – Acting deputy director
maritime (int+dom)
Ashley Stehr – Maritime future tech
Edmund Hughes
Saskia Daggett
Richard Bruce/Carolin Lowe – Director of Energy, Technology,
Innovation
James Tichler – Science and innovation strategy lead
TRIB Decarbonisation WG, feed into TDP process
TDP process inc. stakeholder consultation
Mode/sector leads, policy and strategy leads, feed
into TDP process
Duncan Price and team – Road freight
Transport Scotland (Wales/NI?)
Jonathan Sachs – Aviation and maritime economics
Phil Blyth - CSA
Richard Hadfield - ferries
Richard Holbourn - strategy

11. Emerging insights on road freight
decarbonisation

12. Characterising the research on road freight
Interventions for existing
vehicles
Operational improvements
for existing technology
2013
Navigating the
new energy –
logistics system
2018-20
New operational
and business
models
2021-22 2023- 25
Virtual
living labs
Extended modelling
environment
Technology & operational
demonstrators
Behaviour
Modelling

13. Road
Freight
Category
Vehicle
category
Sectors
considered
Current Research Findings /outcomes
Urban BEV LGV
and eBike
Parcel - ABM simulations
- Vehicle specifications
- Specification of multiple mode systems, and
optimisation of the system
BEV LGV Grocery home
delivery
- ABM simulations
- Integration with estate energy
demands
- Vehicle specifications
- Charging system options
- New constraints may mean changes to
operations to maintain current delivery service
levels
- Collaborative business models
- Opportunistic charging system options
Regional BEV/Hybri
d
RDC deliveries - ABM simulations for regions
- Vehicle specifications
- Best vehicle configurations
- Energy system configurations
Long haul Hybrid
HGV
All long haul - Project definition
- Vehicle specifications
- Clarification of energy alternatives ERS vs
Hydrogen
- Operational impacts of alternatives
- Infrastructure specification
- Lead time requirements
Current research activity

15. Emerging insights on sea freight
decarbonisation

16. LR and UMAS, 2020, Techno-economic assessment of zero carbon fuels
High price scenario, 80,000dwt bulk carrier, total annual additional cost
NG+CCS fuels
consistently cheaper
than e-fuel
Ammonia consistently
cheaper than synth
hydrocarbons,
Biofuel increases in
price, NG+CCS
Ammonia
competitiveness
improves with time
Hydrogen and E-LNG
20-50% more
expensive on total
cost basisNG+CCS fuel
E-fuel
biofuels

17. Global scale and timing of investment in
zero-carbon options that is required
45
The cumulative investment need for shipping’s decarbonization is $1.9 trillion
by 2050 but already by 2030 $390 billion would likely need to be committed
GtZC estimates investment need of ~$1.9 trillion by
2050 for full decarbonization using electrolysis
Given that investment would need to precede the realization of the fuel production
by ~5 years, this means that 20% of investment is needed by 2030, $390 billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Percent of zero emission
fuel production in 2050
(1.5C trajectory)
Percent of cummulative
investment need in 2050
Investment needed ~5y
before fuel production
is realized, given
typical project length1
By 2035, zero emission fuel
production needs to reach 20%
of 2050 total. This means that
20% of 2050 investment is
needed by 2030, which
corresponds to ~$390 billion
1 Also in line with time plan of recent ammonia project announced in Saudi Arabia
Source: UMAS, ETC, Bloomberg.com (Saudi project)
Energy efficiency
technologies, 1%
Engines and
storage , 12%
Hydrogen
production, 44%
Ammonia synthesis
and dispensing,
43%
GMF, UMAS and COP 26 Climate champions

18. Domestic shipping decarbonization is a critical
step towards international shipping
decarbonization
Source: UMAS, 4th IMO GHG Study
Total energy from zero
emission fuels 2030
Ammonia and LPG tankers
use ammonia as fuel
10 deep sea container shipping routes National/regional shipping
decarbonized 30%
~1%
~2%
~3% 5-6%
• The 4th IMO GHG study showed that domestic shipping accounts for at least 17.9% of
total emissions. This number increases to closer to 30% if all domestic voyages are
included, i.e. including those by international shipping, but that occur between two
ports in the same country
• 32 developed nations make up ~50% of domestic shipping emissions. If they achieve
30% of propulsion from zero emission sources by 2030, this would contribute this
contribution to a ~5% of total shipping energy demand

19. Multimodal freight and vision

20. What we think is needed next from this
network
air sea
Land
Focus on interfaces
Build connectivity
Energy
People
Build Capacity
Speed balanced against substance
Evaluationandfeedback
Continuous outputs
Inform policy
with evidence

21. Rail and other modes
• Road and maritime are the modal focus,
because of volumes/importance/challenge
• Expertise in rail included in the network, and
integrated in events and projects
• Expertise across other modes is integrated
through wider partnership within networks

22. Concluding remarks
• Investment clarity leads investment commitment leads
volume investment
• For freight, investment clarity is lagging other transport
modes but options are now narrowing – but inextricably
linked to energy system transition
• The nature of B2B and regulation can make freight
amenable to top-down solutions
• The multi-modal aspects of freight, and “UK system in a
global system” have remained elusive, but are central to
progressing freight decarb