SDG Cafe The Hague

1. Future for African Food Systems
Ruerd Ruben, Chair Impact Assessment for Food Systems

2. Multiple & simultaneous transitions
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3. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
%population
Poverty
(<USD 1.90 a day, 2011 PPP)
Undernourishment
(calories, % of population)
Stunting
(% of children under 5)
Overweight
(BMI>25, % of population)
Cereal yields (MT/ha)
3
Poverty & Food Security – global trends
Reduction of poverty does NOT
automatically lead to less hunger
Intensification of food
production does NOT
direcly lead do better
nutrition
5MT/Ha0

4. Drivers & Outcomes of Food Systems
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Drivers of Change
Population Growth ; Urbanization ; Climate Change;
Technologies; Infrastructure; Policies
Outcomes
Healthy Diets
Sustainability
& Resilience
Inclusiveness
Food System Components
Food Supply & Delivery
Food environment
Food consumption

5.  Population growth
 Rapid urbanization
 Growth of middle class
 Food price volatility
 Climate Change
Drivers of Change
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6. Trends in Food Production
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Rural employment
Mechanization & pro-
cessing lead to more youth
employment. Engagement of
nonfarm activities has
positive impact on nutrition.
Can Africa feed itself ?
Cereal yields in most African
countries are far below self
sufficiency. The food import
bill grows from US$35bn to
110 bn in 2025 (= 15% GDP)
Sustainable
Intensification
Only 13% of demand
growth is met by current
technologies. Rural invest-
ments requires access to
finance & insurance.

7. Trends in Consumption & Nutrition
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Retail revolution
15-30% of food is purchased
in supermarkets. Growing
out-of-home consumption
from street food & fast-
food restaurants.
High food expenditures
African households spent up
to 70-80% of their income
on food. Healthier foods
(F&V, eggs, fish, poultry) are
4-5 times more expensive.
Rapid Dietary change
Growing incomes lead to
changes in diets. Share of
staples & starchy food is
rapidly decreasing, while
processed foods become
more important.

8. Trends in Food Markets & Trade
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Value added shares
Farmers only get 5-10% of
total value added. Most
value added is generated in
processing packaging,
storage & retail.
Local & regional trade
Africa represents only 3% of
world agricultural trade.
Import caps can be used to
enhance local sourcing. Large
prospects for AfCFTA.
Hidden Middle
80% of food consumption
is sold locally. SMEs like
agro-dealers (seed,
fertilizers) and traders &
processors are critical for
agricultural growth.

9. Trends in Food Governance
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Supply chain integration
Global food loss is 14%
(mainly fruits & vegetables
and roots & tubers). Digital
networks & contracts are
critical to improve efficiency.
Food Risk & Standards
Foodborne hazards cause
137K deaths and 91M
illnesses in Africa. Fresh
foods & street food face high
risk of contamination.
Investment Conditions
Bad road conditions &
unreliable energy hinder
local investments and
make food imports more
competetive.

10.  Affordability: healthy food remains very expensive
 Efficiency: high food loss & waste / water & energy use
 Safety & risk: low climate-resilience and late adaptation
 Reliability: limited trust & scarce market information
 Inclusiveness: how to link smallholders to urban consumers?
 Poverty targeting: living wage (rural) & (un)conditional transfers
 Linking public & private investments (co-innovation)
Main food system failures
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11.  Poverty reduction is necessary, but not sufficient for Zero Hunger
 Poor people are most vulnerable as net consumers of food
 Better nutrition is a major catalyst for economic growth
 Improving diets has a large return in reducing health costs (1 : 16)
 Diets are key drivers for land use & climate change resilience
 Tripple payoff of food system upgrading (health, stability, mobility)
Some key messages
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12. Looking forward to a
fruitful exchange
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