This document discusses trends and challenges facing African food systems. It notes that while poverty and hunger have decreased, undernourishment remains a problem. Food production has increased through intensification but has not necessarily led to better nutrition. Key drivers of change include population growth, urbanization, and climate change. African food systems struggle with issues of affordability, efficiency, safety, reliability, and inclusiveness. Overall the document argues that improving nutrition is important for economic growth but that poverty reduction alone does not guarantee less hunger, and a holistic approach is needed to address food system challenges.

1. Future for African Food Systems
Ruerd Ruben, Chair Impact Assessment for Food Systems

2. Multiple & simultaneous transitions
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3. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
%population
Poverty
(<USD 1.90 a day, 2011 PPP)
Undernourishment
(calories, % of population)
Stunting
(% of children under 5)
Overweight
(BMI>25, % of population)
Cereal yields (MT/ha)
3
Poverty & Food Security – global trends
Reduction of poverty does NOT
automatically lead to less hunger
Intensification of food
production does NOT
direcly lead do better
nutrition
5MT/Ha0

4. Drivers & Outcomes of Food Systems
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Drivers of Change
Population Growth ; Urbanization ; Climate Change;
Technologies; Infrastructure; Policies
Outcomes
Healthy Diets
Sustainability
& Resilience
Inclusiveness
Food System Components
Food Supply & Delivery
Food environment
Food consumption

5.  Population growth
 Rapid urbanization
 Growth of middle class
 Food price volatility
 Climate Change
Drivers of Change
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6. Trends in Food Production
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Rural employment
Mechanization & pro-
cessing lead to more youth
employment. Engagement of
nonfarm activities has
positive impact on nutrition.
Can Africa feed itself ?
Cereal yields in most African
countries are far below self
sufficiency. The food import
bill grows from US$35bn to
110 bn in 2025 (= 15% GDP)
Sustainable
Intensification
Only 13% of demand
growth is met by current
technologies. Rural invest-
ments requires access to
finance & insurance.

7. Trends in Consumption & Nutrition
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Retail revolution
15-30% of food is purchased
in supermarkets. Growing
out-of-home consumption
from street food & fast-
food restaurants.
High food expenditures
African households spent up
to 70-80% of their income
on food. Healthier foods
(F&V, eggs, fish, poultry) are
4-5 times more expensive.
Rapid Dietary change
Growing incomes lead to
changes in diets. Share of
staples & starchy food is
rapidly decreasing, while
processed foods become
more important.

8. Trends in Food Markets & Trade
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Value added shares
Farmers only get 5-10% of
total value added. Most
value added is generated in
processing packaging,
storage & retail.
Local & regional trade
Africa represents only 3% of
world agricultural trade.
Import caps can be used to
enhance local sourcing. Large
prospects for AfCFTA.
Hidden Middle
80% of food consumption
is sold locally. SMEs like
agro-dealers (seed,
fertilizers) and traders &
processors are critical for
agricultural growth.

9. Trends in Food Governance
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Supply chain integration
Global food loss is 14%
(mainly fruits & vegetables
and roots & tubers). Digital
networks & contracts are
critical to improve efficiency.
Food Risk & Standards
Foodborne hazards cause
137K deaths and 91M
illnesses in Africa. Fresh
foods & street food face high
risk of contamination.
Investment Conditions
Bad road conditions &
unreliable energy hinder
local investments and
make food imports more
competetive.

10.  Affordability: healthy food remains very expensive
 Efficiency: high food loss & waste / water & energy use
 Safety & risk: low climate-resilience and late adaptation
 Reliability: limited trust & scarce market information
 Inclusiveness: how to link smallholders to urban consumers?
 Poverty targeting: living wage (rural) & (un)conditional transfers
 Linking public & private investments (co-innovation)
Main food system failures
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11.  Poverty reduction is necessary, but not sufficient for Zero Hunger
 Poor people are most vulnerable as net consumers of food
 Better nutrition is a major catalyst for economic growth
 Improving diets has a large return in reducing health costs (1 : 16)
 Diets are key drivers for land use & climate change resilience
 Tripple payoff of food system upgrading (health, stability, mobility)
Some key messages
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12. Looking forward to a
fruitful exchange
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