This document discusses the future prospects for smallholder agriculture and family farming in sub-Saharan Africa. It notes that while cereal production has tripled in the last 50 years, cereal output per capita has fallen. The majority of Africans remain undernourished and poverty stricken. Agriculture provides over half of employment but farm sizes are shrinking and yields are stagnant due to population growth, climate challenges, and lack of investment. The document examines policies around market access, land rights, social safety nets, and contract farming that could help boost smallholder productivity and food security going forward.

1. Future Food Security & Family Farming
Prospects for smallholder agriculture in sub-Sahara Africa
Prof dr Ruerd Ruben
Research coordinator Food Security, Value Chains & Impact Assessment

2. Key Issues
1. Importance of Family Farming: Facts & Figures
2. Rationale of the Peasantry
3. Development Pathways for Family Farming
4. Policies & Strategies for Food Security
5. The Future of Family Farming

3. Importance of Agriculture
￭ Agricultural production
- Cereal production in Sub-Saharan Africa tripled in 50 years
- but: cereal output per capita has fallen by 13 percent
- > 80 percent of grain supply from domestic production
￭ Poverty & Hunger
- One in four Africans are undernourished
- One third of African ppulation subsist on < $1 per day.
￭ Rural Employment
- Half of African labour force is employed in agriculture (??)
- Women perform most of agricultural work
- Farmers age > 55 years

4. Key Importance of Agriculture

5. Stagnating Yields
Marginal growth in cereal yields (MT/ha)

6. Declining Per Capita Food Production
Population growth rate > Agricultural production growth

7. Volatile Food prices
Secular decline in cereal prices

8. Farm structure
75% of African farms are smaller than 2 ha

9. Importance of Family Farming

10. Rural population
Growing share of urban population + Declining agricultural labor force

11. Land & Labour Use patterns
Diversity in agroecology  mixed land use systems

12. Rural non-farm income
30-45% of rural household income from non-farm employment

13. Food Insecurity
Increase in food-insecure people + growing food gap

14. Outlets of Agricultural products
Destination of Agricultural Products
(2000- 2030)

15. Low price responsiveness
Responses to output price rise
(1) Low supply response of producers
(0.05 – 0.35)
(2) delayed / lagged response (Nerlove)
(3) rising food prices could lead to
higher (urban) poverty: negative impact
on net consumers outweighs the
benefits to producers).
(4) output price risk has negative
correlations with crop supply
(5) Production is sensitive to input costs
(fertilizers, seed)
(6) imports / market liberalization leads
to more price volatility

16. Net buyers & net sellers of food

17. Inverse relationship yield with farm size
Yields/ha tend to decline on lager farms

18. Poverty traps

19. Climate change
Greater Rainfall variability
 Declining agricultural yields

20. Value chain integration (MMW4P)
SSA has < 4 % of world trade
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Banana Mango Bean Apple Coffee Cocoa
Retail
Factory
Import
Taxes
Transport
Export
Packing
Farm
Farmers get < 10% of market price

21. Supermarket revolution
￭ Rapid expansion of supermarket outlets
￭ Growing urban food purchases in supermarkets
￭ Change in diets: F&V, fish/meat/dairy, packaged foods
￭ Competition with local shops & street vendors
￭ Contractual deliveries by F&V smallholder farmers

22. Land titling
Uncertain effects of land titling on investments and yields

23. Microfinance & Contract farming

24. Public investment

25. Safety nets (cash transfers)

27. Outlook

28. Future of the Peasantry

29. Thanks for your attention
Ruerd.ruben@wur.nl
RRuerd