The GRAMMAR project faced challenges from external unpredictable risks. The initial risk plan addressed manufacturing issues but not the concurrent financial crisis affecting the chip producer. This caused delays receiving functioning chips, jeopardizing the main project goal. After impact analysis and risk register updates, the solution was a six month extension to allow time for additional chip production runs and achieve the goal. The experience highlighted the need to consider broader economic risks and risk interactions in plans, with open communication to stakeholders.

1. Management Challenges – Case Study on an External-Unpredictable Risk Stephan Sand and Simon Plass German Aerospace Center (DLR) NASA PM Challenge 2011 Used with permission

2. German Aerospace Center Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)

3. Overview 33 Institutes and facilities 13 Research sites, offices in Paris and Washington Total staff: 6700 R&D budget: about 900 Mio $ Institute of Communications and Navigation  Köln  Oberpfaffenhofen Braunschweig   Göttingen Berlin   Bonn  Neustrelitz Weilheim  Bremen   Trauen  Dortmund Lampoldshausen  Hamburg  Stuttgart 

4. Outline GRAMMAR project Objectives Milestones GRAMMAR Risk Cycle External-Unpredictable Event What next? External-Unpredictable Risk Cycle Lessons learned

5. Prototype global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receiver Prototype navigation receiver for next generation communication systems (3GPP-LTE) Enhanced algorithm concepts GRAMMAR Galileo Ready Advance Mass Market Receiver

6. EC FP7 collaborative project Feb 2009 – Jan 2011 Budget: 3.5 Mio. $ EC Funding: 2.7 Mio. $ Partners German Aerospace Center (DLR) ACORDE TECHNOLOGIES S.A. Tampere University of Technology GRAMMAR Galileo Ready Advance Mass Market Receiver

7. Milestones GRAMMAR Galileo Ready Advance Mass Market Receiver Kick-off Meeting Feb 2009 Critical design Review Aug 2010 Final review Dec 2010 Preliminary design review Feb 2010 Final presentation Jan 2011 User requirements and core technologies review Aug 2009

8. GRAMMAR Risk Cycle Risk Management Planning Develop Risk Register Risk Identification Risk Analysis Risk Response Planning Risk Monitor and Control Output: Risk Management Plan Output: Risk Register Output: Risk Register (update) Recommended preventive and corrective actions Request change Approved preventive and corrective actions Approved change requests Risk event Update Risk Register Change Control

9. GRAMMAR Plan Risk mitigation: Manufacture several chips in three runs Non functional chips due to Inaccurate models of selected technology Errors in the design Variance in the manufacturing process Shifts in radio design due to scope changes Integration problems: Interfacing radio frequency front-end chip and base-band FPGA board Lack of availability of modules for integration Lack of time alignment of availability of modules for integration

10. GRAMMAR Plan Risk mitigation: Manufacture several chips in three runs Kick-off Meeting Feb 2009 Critical design Review 2 nd set of chips Aug 2010 Final review 3 rd set of chips Dec 2010 Preliminary design review 1 st set of chips Feb 2010 Final presentation Jan 2011 User requirements and core technologies review Aug 2009

11. GRAMMAR Execution Chips from first run: Delivered on time Tests: Non functional chips (identified risk) Mitigation 2 more runs Kick-off Meeting Feb 2009 Critical design Review 2 nd set of chips Aug 2010 Final review 3 rd set of chips Dec 2010 Preliminary design review 1 st set of chips Feb 2010 Final presentation Jan 2011 User requirements and core technologies review Aug 2009

12. External-Unpredictable Event Manufacturing schedule of subcontracted chip producer hit by financial crisis 2009 Unidentified risk concurrent with identified risk Impact on project: No functioning chip  Main project goal cannot be reached Credit WIRED.com Credit Google images

13. What next? Impact analysis: No functional chip/prototype Main project goal to be missed Risk register update: red New schedule of manufacturer: Delays Combined occurrence of two risks: Missed main goal

14. What next? Development of corrective actions Accept risk: Consequently reduced scope Mitigate risk: Change scope or schedule Conclusion Mitigate risk: Change schedule – project extension

15. What next? Communicate risks and corrective actions Sponsor: European Commission Stakeholders: Consortium partners Senior management of partners

16. Consensus Decision Consensus: Extend project by 6 month Risk mitigation missing main goal Scope, budget and quality unchanged Formal change process: Update of project management plan Acceptance by sponsor Critical design Review 2 nd set of chips Dec 2010 Aug 2010 Final review 3 rd set of chips Jun 2011 Dec 2010 Final presentation Jul 2011 Jan 2011 Preliminary design review 1 st set of chips Mar 2010

17. External-Unpredictable Risk Cycle Concurrent Risk Management Planning Develop Risk Register Risk Identification Risk Analysis Risk Response Planning Risk Monitor and Control Output: Risk Management Plan Output: Risk Register Output: Risk Register (update) Request change Approved preventive and corrective actions Approved change requests Unpredictable Risk event Update Risk Register Change Control Identify Risk Risk Analysis Risk Response Planning Communication with sponsor & stakeholders Decision on corrective actions

18. Lessons Learned Extended risk analysis: Consider general economy beyond enterprise environment Combined risk analysis: Think about several concurrent events Good communication with stakeholders and sponsor is important