Thomas Rosswall (Chair CCAFS). Welcome and Introduction to CCAFS Science Meeting. Presented at CCAFS Science Meeting, 1-2 December 2010

1. Welcome and Introduction
Thomas Rosswall, Chair CCAFS

2. UN MDG Summit 20-22 September 2010
"It is clear that improvements in the lives
of the poor have been unacceptably slow,
and some hard-won gains are being
eroded by the climate, food and economic
crises,"
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in the
foreword to the Millennium Development
Goals Report to the Summit.

3. Millennium Development Goals
The number of undernourished
people is increasing, while we
are constrained by:
Nine
Planetary
Boundaries
Rockström et al., Nature, 461 472-475 (2009)

4. Trends in World Hunger

5. Rockström & Karlberg (Ambio 2010)
Human growth
”The Quadruple 20/80 dilemma
Squeeze”
Climate Ecosystems
550/450/350 60 % loss dilemma
dilemma
Surprise
99/1 dilemma

6. The Climate Change Challenge
• Climate change will worsen the living conditions
of farmers, fishers and forest-dependent people
who are already vulnerable and food insecure
• Rural communities ... face an immediate and
ever-growing risk of increased crop failure, loss
of livestock, loss of fisheries ......
• Hunger and malnutrition will increase
FAO 2009

7. Changes in Agricultural Productivity by 2080
www.cabi.org

8. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

9. The Big Disconnect
Development and global change
have been addressed, researched,
and funded as unrelated issues

10. A Question of Scale
... and geographic diffrences
Sachs et al. Nature 2010
Differences
Brazil Africa

11. Time Scales
• Climate change scenarios
• Migration, large-scale
infrastructure
• Near-term climate change,
• • Breeding, strategic
Breeding, strategic
Decadal variability
research, change
research, change of
of farming systems
• Interannual variability
farming system
• Seasonal cycle
• Technology selection,
• Sub-seasonal variability
resource allocation
• Weather • Field operations
Jim Hansen, IRI, Columbia University/CCAFS)

12. Food Security ...
is achieved when “all people, at all
times, have physical and economic
access to sufficient, safe, and
nutritious food to meet their dietary
needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life" (FAO, 1996)

13. Main Elements of Food Systems
GECAFS conceptual diagram
FOOD FOOD
UTILISATION ACCESS
• Nutritional Value • Affordability
• Social Value • Allocation
• Food Safety • Preference
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

14. CRP7 - the Opportunity
Global
D4GΔ
Business
As Usual
Development
Global for Global
Change Change
Siloed Integrated
Business
As Usual
Development
Research
Local
Adapted from Sara
Farley, The World Bank

15. CCAFS – CRP7

16. Earth System Science Partnership

17. CRP7

18. The Challenge
We are asking for a
wide range of
agricultural sector
actors to change their
behavior, to
innovate, under
conditions of
incomplete and un-
integrated markets,
asymmetric
information & missing
insurance and credit
markets

19. Climate Change Vulnerability Index
IGP
W. Africa
E. Africa
Maplecroft 2010

20. What Next?
Per Olsson, SRC, 2009