Food Security Futures conference,11-12 April 2013, Dublin, IrelandFood security and sustainable resourceuse – what are the...
Outline 1/2 Food Security Context: Food Consumption  and Production Needs in 2050 Natural Resources for Food Production:...
Outline 2/2   Key Natural Resource Challenges for food    security       Inequitable distribution       Accessibility  ...
Food Security Context:Food Consumption Needs in 2050   From FAO: World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050   Agricultural prod...
Food Production Increases Neededby 2050   Production can be met with various assumptions, but as    expansion of land for...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Land            Source: Fisher et al. 2011: GEAZ model   More than 1 billion ha of ...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Land Quality   The 1991 GLASOD study estimated that 15% of all land    was degraded...
Use of Nutrient Inputs in Food Production   Estimated that fertilizer accounted for 33-50% of yield    growth in developi...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Water   The FAO projections indicate that the global demand for    water withdrawal...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Water   In rainfed agriculture, less than 30% of rainfall is used by plants in    t...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Fisheries   Countries that depend most on fish for food and nutrition    security r...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Rangelands and Feed   Permanent meadows and pastures are 3.35 billion ha    globall...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Forests and trees                                                 CRP6 Proposal for ...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Genetic Resources   Presently, the world’s food comes just from 103 plant    specie...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Genetic Resources   About 900 cultivated plant species and 22% of the    more than ...
Natural Resources for Food Production:Landscapes and Ecosystem Services   For individual resources to be healthy and sust...
Global availability/local accessibility?   Land and water are unequally distributed   Adequate management requires inves...
Distribution: land      Regions     Cultivated   Population   Cultivated                    land        (million)    land ...
Water: some critical areas   Northern Africa: withdrawals exceed renewable    resources   Middle East, China, parts of U...
Trends in fertilizer use
Systems at risk
Systems at risk   densely populated highlands in poor areas;    small holder rainfed farming in semi-arid tropics;    d...
Access to resources   The poorest and the more vulnerable, women,    indigenous people, poor fisherfolks, are the more at...
Resource efficiency for food security   Multiple inputs: land, water, nutrients, genetic    resources. Optimizing the use...
Improving resource efficiency   At field level   At landscape level   Along food chains   At broader levels: diets, tr...
Global Food Losses Throughout the FoodChain for Selected Commodities
Addressing resource challenges   Assessments of resources   Measurements of resource use/systems, practices    and of as...
Systems, practices, technologies   Promote wide practice of integrated natural resource    management from field to lands...
Policies   Harmonize policies across sector – empower local    governments to design and implement locally    relevant pr...
Research, knowledge   Assessments       gaps in resource assessments (e.g. in soils)       measures and assessments of ...
Priority areas for action FAO/CGIAR 1.   There is a need to have a clearer picture of resource      “availability’ (land, ...
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Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Natural Resources Report Presentation by Frank Place, ICRAF, and Alexandre Meybeck, FAO

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Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Natural Resources Report Presentation by Frank Place, ICRAF and Alexandre Meybeck, FAO
on April 12, 2013 at the Food Security Futures Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

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Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Natural Resources Report Presentation by Frank Place, ICRAF, and Alexandre Meybeck, FAO

  1. 1. Food Security Futures conference,11-12 April 2013, Dublin, IrelandFood security and sustainable resourceuse – what are the resource challengesto food security? Frank Place, ICRAF, CGIAR , Alexandre Meybeck, FAOContributing authors: Linda Colette (FAO), Cassandra de Young (FAO),Vincent Gitz (FAO), Ehsan Dulloo (Bioversity), Stephen Hall (World FishCenter), Eva Müller (FAO), Robert Nasi (CIFOR), Andrew Noble (IWMI), David Spielman (IFPRI), Pasquale Steduto (FAO), Keith Wiebe (FAO),
  2. 2. Outline 1/2 Food Security Context: Food Consumption and Production Needs in 2050 Natural Resources for Food Production: Current Status and Trends  Land  Water  Fisheries  Rangelands  Forests & trees  Genetic resources  Landscapes and ecosystem services
  3. 3. Outline 2/2 Key Natural Resource Challenges for food security  Inequitable distribution  Accessibility  Optimize use for food security Addressing the challenges  Research  Development  Policy  FAO and CGIAR Roles
  4. 4. Food Security Context:Food Consumption Needs in 2050 From FAO: World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050 Agricultural production will need to increase by 60% between 2006 and 2050 to meet projected growth in demand This does not take into account climate change nor possible increased demand for biofuels
  5. 5. Food Production Increases Neededby 2050 Production can be met with various assumptions, but as expansion of land for food becomes more difficult, FAO estimates that 80% is to be met by yield increase New land will account for about 20% of the increase in production Yield increases will need to be on the order of 0.64% per annum globally; but 1.8% in SSA and 1.0% in S. Asia Globally, cereal yields are increasing, but at decreasing rates (from 3.1% in 1960s to 1.3% in 2000’s)“Global resources are sufficient, but the devil is local”
  6. 6. Natural Resources for Food Production:Land Source: Fisher et al. 2011: GEAZ model More than 1 billion ha of good land could be brought into cultivation, but much is in forests, rangeland or other land use; others may be difficult to convert If yield increases can be maintained, the net new land area is a modest 70 million ha – mainly from SSA and L. America
  7. 7. Natural Resources for Food Production:Land Quality The 1991 GLASOD study estimated that 15% of all land was degraded. More recent studies by FAO (LADA) and Bai et al. find about 25% of areas degraded or degrading – with a significant proportion on farmland Globally, only half the nutrients that crops take from the soil are replaced, with nutrient depletion in many Asian countries equivalent to 50 kg/ha annually. Globally, 34 million ha are now impacted by salinity representing 11% of the total irrigated equipped area Tan et al. noted that the ratio of crop yield to NPK fertilizer application has fallen dramatically between 1961 to 2000, from 494 to 71
  8. 8. Use of Nutrient Inputs in Food Production Estimated that fertilizer accounted for 33-50% of yield growth in developing countries between the 1970s and 2000s High rates per ha observed in Asia, North America, Europe; L. America is catching up; rates remain very low in SSA  The use of organic nutrients is also high – brown and green manures
  9. 9. Natural Resources for Food Production:Water The FAO projections indicate that the global demand for water withdrawals from agriculture will increase by 11% from a 2006 baseline to 2050 By 2050, more than half the world’s population will live in countries with severe water constraints Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007
  10. 10. Natural Resources for Food Production:Water In rainfed agriculture, less than 30% of rainfall is used by plants in the process of biomass production The importance of irrigated agriculture cannot be overstated. At present it accounts, with 16% of the arable area, for 44% of total crop production There are water supply limits to the expansion of irrigation: more than 40% of global area withdraws more than 20% of renewable water resources which is considered to be a critical level The intensive agricultural economies of Asia withdraw 20% of their internal renewable resources, of which more than 80% goes to irrigation The aggregate projection shows that the area equipped for irrigation could expand by 20 million ha over the period from 2005/2007 to 2050, nearly all of it in the developing countries, thus leading to about 240 million ha under irrigation
  11. 11. Natural Resources for Food Production:Fisheries Countries that depend most on fish for food and nutrition security rely primarily on catches from the wild The most recent estimate states that 29.9% of stocks were over-exploited, depleted or recovering in 2009 – but data from parts of Asia and Africa are lacking Demand is almost certain to outstrip future gains in productivity thus achieving a sustainable offtake level is a key objective
  12. 12. Natural Resources for Food Production:Rangelands and Feed Permanent meadows and pastures are 3.35 billion ha globally or about 26% of land area There has been degradation of rangelands recorded with management and environmental contributing Estimates put the world feed use of cereals at 742 million tonnes, or 36% of world total cereal use. The growth rate of cereal feed is lower than that of livestock production – partly due to shifting growths among livestock types Oilcake feed production is increasing (e.g. soybeans for use in China) and is expected to be faster than that of cereal feed to 2050 (80% vs 50% growth)
  13. 13. Natural Resources for Food Production:Forests and trees CRP6 Proposal for Forests, Trees and Agroforestry, 2011 Forests cover about 4 billion ha about 31% of the world’s land area Tree cover of at least 10% is found on half of agricultural lands Forests provide rich sources of nutrients and fuelwood in forested landscapes; trees on farms provide fruit, nuts, leaves and contribute to crop and livestock productivity significantly in some regions (e.g. the Sahel); fruit and vegetable consumption is highest in SSA in areas of high tree cover Provision of essential ecosystem services
  14. 14. Natural Resources for Food Production:Genetic Resources Presently, the world’s food comes just from 103 plant species based on calories, protein and fat supply. Maize, wheat, rice and sugar supply almost 60% of the calories and proteins in the human diet Breeds of five main livestock species provide the bulk of global food supply But 7, 000 plants have been used by humans for food, 1,400 crop wild relatives are considered to be important for food security (e.g. for phenotype or genotype traits)
  15. 15. Natural Resources for Food Production:Genetic Resources About 900 cultivated plant species and 22% of the more than 8,000 animal breeds are threatened by extinction Crucial importance of associated biodiversity: pollinators, soil microorganisms... Much less known Land use change and unsustainable practices are major threats to biodiversity. At the same time when biodiversity is essential to increase resilience of agro ecosystems to risks and global changes.
  16. 16. Natural Resources for Food Production:Landscapes and Ecosystem Services For individual resources to be healthy and sustainably productive, their integrated management is important at landscape and other scales Examples: improved management of farmland and yield increases helped to reduce conversion of forests and other lands; retention of natural vegetation helps to prevent sedimentation into fisheries and provides environment for pollinators Ecoagriculture Partners (2012) found a growing number of integrated management of landscapes, with involvement of key stakeholders:  agriculture-pastoral-wildlife managed landscapes in east and southern Africa  watershed rehabilitation in China and India  tree crop and ecotourism landscapes in Central America
  17. 17. Global availability/local accessibility? Land and water are unequally distributed Adequate management requires investment The distribution does not always favor the countries which are relying the more on natural resources for their growth Population growth and climate change could increase discrepancies between needs and availability Ex: Niger, Mali, Burkina Fasso
  18. 18. Distribution: land Regions Cultivated Population Cultivated land (million) land per (million capita ha) (ha) Low- 441 2 651 0.17 income countries Middle- 735 3 223 0.23 income countries High- 380 1031 0.37 income countries Total 1 556 6 905 0.23
  19. 19. Water: some critical areas Northern Africa: withdrawals exceed renewable resources Middle East, China, parts of USA, parts of India: water tables decline significantly Western, Central and South Asia: severe water shortages SSA: lack of investments
  20. 20. Trends in fertilizer use
  21. 21. Systems at risk
  22. 22. Systems at risk densely populated highlands in poor areas; small holder rainfed farming in semi-arid tropics; densely populated and intensely cultivated areas in the Mediterranean basin intensive rainfed cropping in temperate climate; irrigated rice-based systems; crops depending on irrigation by groundwater; rangelands on fragile soils; deltas and coastal areas; periurban agriculture.
  23. 23. Access to resources The poorest and the more vulnerable, women, indigenous people, poor fisherfolks, are the more at risk of not having or losing access to resources Increasing prices could intensify competition for resources
  24. 24. Resource efficiency for food security Multiple inputs: land, water, nutrients, genetic resources. Optimizing the use of one often requires the other. (+ knowledge) Multiple outputs: produce, income, diet (ecosystem services). They do not always go together. Different levels: farm, landscape, food chains
  25. 25. Improving resource efficiency At field level At landscape level Along food chains At broader levels: diets, trade
  26. 26. Global Food Losses Throughout the FoodChain for Selected Commodities
  27. 27. Addressing resource challenges Assessments of resources Measurements of resource use/systems, practices and of associated economic, social, environmental performance/impact Governance of natural resources: multi stakeholder, multiresources, multipurposes (landscape) Transfer of resources (water, fish stocks)
  28. 28. Systems, practices, technologies Promote wide practice of integrated natural resource management from field to landscape, including soil conservation, minimum tillage, use of organic nutrients, agroforestry, rainwater harvesting, micro- irrigation, integrated crop-livestock, rotational grazing, watershed protection, biodiversity corridors….. Develop dissemination systems that encompass experiential learning and sharing of knowledge Promote collaboration across sectors for effective management all important resources for food production and ecosystem services. A food chain approach, involving all economic actors
  29. 29. Policies Harmonize policies across sector – empower local governments to design and implement locally relevant programmes More efficient, food, input and credit markets are needed and supporting infrastructure development Long term commitment towards NRM objectives More attention to NRM related policy instruments such as property rights, rewards for environmental services, longer term finance, More investment in research in agriculture and NRM
  30. 30. Research, knowledge Assessments  gaps in resource assessments (e.g. in soils)  measures and assessments of resource efficiency  the ex-ante assessment of consequences of resource degradation and investments in natural resource management Using assessments to design tests of integrated NRM practices at different scales Monitoring effects of technical, institutional and policy innovations in NRM Developing a variety of dissemination products for development and policy stakeholders
  31. 31. Priority areas for action FAO/CGIAR 1. There is a need to have a clearer picture of resource “availability’ (land, water, biomass,…) and of how it can respond to growing and competing demands 2. There is an urgent need to develop approaches and data banks that consider at the same time all aspects and impacts of resource management 3. Change the way to do research and dissemination, more local specific and farmer centered 4. Improving governance for sustainable management of natural resources, at every level, requires shared understanding of the issues, adequate assessment and monitoring tools and appropriate institutions and policies to engage all stakeholders, including with adequate science/policy interfaces

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