Schneider population growth, economic development, and food

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Schneider population growth, economic development, and food

  1. 1. Lecture SeriesMonday, 05.12.2011Population Growth, Economic The Water-Energy-FoodDevelopment and Food Security Security Nexus Winter Semester 2011 / 2012Dr. Uwe SchneiderUniversity of Hamburg  
  2. 2. Populaon  Growth,  Economic  Development,  and  Food  Security   Uwe  A.  Schneider   University  of  Hamburg  Center  for  Earth  Systems  Research  and  Sustainability   &  many  collaborators   The  Water  Energy  Food  Lecture  Series   University  of  Cologne,  Cologne  University  of  Applied  Sciences   and  the  German  Development  Instute   5  December,  2011  
  3. 3. Acknowledgements  
  4. 4. Quesons  •  Can  we  produce  enough  food  for  a  growing   populaon?  •  How  does  development  affect  food   availability?  •  What  is  the  quantave  net  impact  of   different  development  factors  on  food?    
  5. 5. Human  Diet  Requirements  •  18-­‐30  year  old  male    •  height  of  1.70  m    •  acve  lifestyle  Recommended  energy  intake  ~  11.7  MJ/day    ~  2794  Kcal/day    
  6. 6. Based  on  data  from  Joint  WHO/FAO  Expert  Consultaon  on  Diet,  Nutrion  and  the  Prevenon  of  Chronic  Diseases  (2002:  Geneva,  Switzerland)  
  7. 7. Global  Limits  •  Food  Supply   •  Food  Demand   10  billion  people   3000  kcal  /  person  /  day   ====================   ~  1.5  Gtoe  /  year   •  Primary  Energy  Consumpon  2006    ~  13  Gtoe   (Source:  2007,  P.  Chefurka)  
  8. 8. Solar  Energy  Budget  Source:  NASA,  Wikipedia  
  9. 9. Solar  Energy  Supply  •  89  PW  absorbed  by  land  and  ocean  •  ~  48  000  Gtoe  per  year    •  Earth  surface     510  million  km²  (100%)  •  Land  surface     149  million  km²  (29,2%)  •  Agricultural  land  49      million  km²  (9.6%)  •  Arable  land     15      million  km²  (3.0%)  •  Pasture  land       34      million  km²  (6.6%)  •  ~  4  670  Gtoe  per  year  on  agricultural  land         (~  3000  x  1.5  Gtoe)  
  10. 10. Photosynthec  Supply  •  ~  75  Gtoe  (0.5%  of  absorbed  energy)  per  year   converted  by  photosynthesis  on  earth  •  ~  1/3  by  plankton  +  2/3  by  plants    •  ~  50  mes  1.5  Gtoe  •  ~  6  mes  the  current  human  energy   consumpon  •  Ecosystems  have  different  producvies  
  11. 11. Source:  Kling  University  of  Michigan  
  12. 12. Total    Producvity  (Agricultural  land  <  10%)  Source:  Kling  University  of  Michigan  
  13. 13. Crop   Gtoe  /  15  mill  km2  Rye   1,3  Oat   1,5  Soybean   1,6  Barley   1,9  Winter  wheat   2,8  Hay   3,0  Grain  Corn   4,2  Switchgrass   6,1   Canadian  Values    based  on  Samson  et  al.  2005  
  14. 14. Global  Limits?  •  Some  global  resource  limits  are  in  sight  …  •  Uncertaines   – Spaal  variaon   – Sustainability   – Dynamics  of  markets  and  technology   – Interferences  with  other  objecves  (energy,   nature  protecon,  water,  health)  
  15. 15. Quesons  •  Can  we  produce  enough  food  for  a  growing   populaon?  •  How  does  development  affect  food   availability?  •  What  is  the  quantave  net  impact  of   different  development  factors  on  food?    
  16. 16.  Development  factors  which  increase   food  scarcity    •  Populaon  growth  •  Economic  (income)  growth  •  Increasing  non-­‐food  producon  •  Nature  protecon  efforts  •  Resource  degradaon  
  17. 17. Populaon  Growth    
  18. 18. Annex-I and Non-Annex-I per capita income
  19. 19. Food Price and Wetlands in EU27 (fixed Trade with NonEU27) Schleupner und Schneider, 2010
  20. 20. Source  GLASOD  data  base  
  21. 21. Development  factors  with  ambiguous   impacts  on  food  scarcity  •  Policies  •  Consumer  preferences  •  Climate  Change  
  22. 22. Crop  yield  changes  by  2080s  relave  to  the  period  1961-­‐1990  (IPCC  A2,  ECHAM4/  RCA3)    Source  EC  Peseta  project  
  23. 23. Factors  which  migate  food  scarcity  •  Land  improvement  •  Intensificaon?  •  Technical  progress  Green  revoluon  in  60ies,  70ies  Yellow  revoluon?  
  24. 24. Global  Cereal     Yields   Steady  Increase   ~  5dt/ha/decade  Source:  Tilman  et  al.,  Nature,  2002  
  25. 25. Global  Nitrogen     Efficiency  Source:  Tilman  et  al.,  Nature,  2002  
  26. 26. Source: Emily Wong, 2009GOLDEN RICE   Golden rice is a variety of Oryza sativa rice produced from genetic engineering   Main purpose is to provide pro- vitamin A to third world, developing, countries where malnutrition and vitamin A deficiency are common
  27. 27. Without Golden Rice VAD = vitamin A deficiency DALY = disability-adjusted life yearsSource: M. Qaim based on Stein et al. 2008
  28. 28. Developed     Countries  Schneider  and  Smith,  2009  
  29. 29. Developing    Countries   Schneider  and  Smith,  2009  
  30. 30. Schneider  and  Smith,  2009   Global   Average   Input  Energy   Calorie  Yields   Energy  intensity    
  31. 31. Quesons  •  Can  we  produce  enough  food  for  a  growing   populaon?  •  How  does  development  affect  food   availability?  •  What  is  the  quantave  net  impact  of   different  development  factors  on  food?    
  32. 32. Net  impact?      Control  opportunies?  Populaon  growth   Climate  Change  Income  (economic)   Policies  growth   Consumer  Increasing  Non-­‐Food   preferences  producon  Nature  protecon   Technical  progress  Resource   Intensificaon  degradaon   Land  improvement  
  33. 33. Assessment  Method  •  Connects  Climate  –>  Biophysical  –>  Economic   Model  •  Global  Paral  Equilibrium  Model  (Globiom)  •  Uses  IPCC  and  MEA  scenarios  as  boundary   condions  •  Calibrated  against  year  2000  condions  •  Many  Simplificaons  
  34. 34. Linked  model  system  
  35. 35. Schneider  et  al.  2011  Agricultural  Systems  
  36. 36. Messages  •  Sustainability  is  not  automac  (Maya  etc.)  •  There  is  no  looming  physical  food  scarcity  but   some  people  will  connue  to  suffer  from  hunger  •  Simultaneous  realizaon  of  diverse  development   goals  will  put  high  pressure  on  economic  food   availability  •  Opmal  land  use  development  (society)  requires   regulaon  of  externalies  •  Heterogeneous  and  uncertain  externalies  require   beter  data  and  comprehensive  scienfic  models  •  Policymakers  should  exploit  the  science  based   ability  to  ancipate  the  future    
  37. 37. Everything  is  related  to  everything.  Don’t  let  today’s  soluon  become   tomorrow’s  problem.   Thank  you  

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