Kehinde Ogunjobi SEMINAR Developing Resilience to Climate Change and Achieving Food Security in West Africa: Follow up Action from the UN Food Systems Summit Co-Organized by West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) and IFPRI SEP 30, 2021 - 09:00 AM TO 10:30 AM EDT

1. ogunjobi.k@wascal.org
Competence Centre, WASCAL
Blvd Moammar El-Khadafi, 06BP9507, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Presented By: Prof. Kehinde OGUNJOBI
Contributions: Safietou SANFO, Seyni SALACK, Moussa
Sidibe, Elida Kossi
Developing Resilience Strategies to Climate Change at the
landscape and farm levels in West Africa

2. Quasi-stationary temperature island
❑ Observed Regional warming outpassing
the global average (+0.8 to +1.2oC)
❑ Amplified warming towards the end of the
21st Century (Projections)
Observations/Projections
Observations
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
−2
0
2
4
6
Temperature
(oC)
Soudan/Sahel (Baseline: 1981−2010)
Observations
SSP126
SSP370
Air Temperature [2m]
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
−2
0
2
4
6
Temperature
(oC)
Guinean Zone (Baseline: 1981−2010)
Observations
SSP126
SSP370
Air Temperature [2m]
Situation Analysis (4)
Updating facts & figures
Source: WASCAL CoC simulation

3. ❑ Observed recovery with much variable
average rainfall regime in Soudan/Sahel
❑ Projected slight increase of average
annual rainfall (Soudan/Sahel) and
quasi-stationary (South) in the mid-to-
end of 21st Century (SSP126/370)
Observations/Projections
Observations
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Standardised
anomaly
(#)
Soudan/Sahel (Baseline: 1981−2010)
Observations
SSP126
SSP370
Precipitation [Surface]
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Standardised
anomaly
(#)
Guinean Zone (Baseline: 1981−2010)
Observations
SSP126
SSP370
Precipitation [Surface]
Updating facts & figures
Situation Analysis (4)
Source: WASCAL CoC simulation

4. SSP126 ➔ Central South/North-West stationary + Centre/North-East humides
(10-30%, statistically significant)
SSP370 ➔ Persistant regional dipole ➔ Dryer West (Amplified) Vs Wetter East
Model consensus (Statistically significant patterns)
Updating facts & figures
Situation Analysis (4)
Source: WASCAL CoC simulation

5. Impacts on Weather & Climate extremes
1950 2000 2050 2100
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
Temperature
range
(°C)
Soudan/Sahel
Historical
SSP126
SSP370
● Daily Temperature Range [Surface]
1950 2000 2050 2100
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Temperature
range
(°C)
Guinean Zone
Historical
SSP126
SSP370
● Daily Temperature Range [Surface]
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Soudan/Sahel (SSP126)
Events per season
Probability
Baseline 1981−2010
Horizon 2031−2060
Horizon 2071−2100
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Guinean Zone (SSP126)
Events per season
Probability
Baseline 1981−2010
Horizon 2031−2060
Horizon 2071−2100
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Soudan/Sahel (SSP370)
Events per season
Probability
Baseline 1981−2010
Horizon 2031−2060
Horizon 2071−2100
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Guinean Zone (SSP370)
Events per season
Probability
Baseline 1981−2010
Horizon 2031−2060
Horizon 2071−2100
1. Heavy rain events (w/ Gust winds)
2. Heat waves (heat stress)
3. Mixed drought/floods, single rainy
seaon/location (Continental
W/Africa)

6. SSP126 SSP370
+7% +2% +10% +14%
+6% +8%
Volta basin average
Area average: ±5%
Basin scale: Increase, Except for Senegal & Gambia
Most basins may likely experience increasing flood magnitudes as a result of high
sensitivity to heavy rainfall, land use changes, improper dam management, and
settlements in flood prone areas ➔ Transboundary and Nexus issues highly challenged.
Local scale ➔ Zonal contrast between western
(dry) and eastern (wet) of Soudan/Sahel and
between the north/east, and the southwest
(Pronounced increases).
Impacts on Streaflow of major basins

7. Food chain/system
Production
Transformation
/Processing
Commercialization
Consumption
The component in the food
security chain act together. If one
component is affected by climate
change, the other components
in the chain are also likely to be
affected
Extreme rainfall events mean an
increased risk of food insecurity
Extended drought, or flooding
= drop in yield (income
reduction)= increase in cereal
prices = Food insecurity

8. Rice
Roots & Tubers
Sorghum Millet
Area : 641 277.1 km2 Area: 654 893.8 km2
Area: 1 104 772 km2
Area: 1 165 692 km2
Maize
Area: 1 118 289 km2
Area: 2 247 011 km2
> 40-60% of the production
areas may be:
- Not suitable for the same
crop
- Fully degraded (eroded,
nutrient leached, flooded,
- Lost for settlements
(Occupied by people)
Cotton
Cropping land Productivity

9. Crop
Farming
Regime
Yield Change (%)
Timeline
(Horizon)
Average
Confidence
Interval
Maize Rainfed -11.6 [-27 ; -2.0] 2031-2060
Sorghum Rainfed -16.7 [-42 ; +7.0] 2015-2050
Millet Rainfed -6.0 [-19 ; 0.0] 2031-2060
Groundnut Rainfed +3.7 [-11.6 ; +21] 2035-2050
Cassava Rainfed +7.0 [-3.7 ; +17.5] 2015-2050
Soybean Rainfed +21.3 [+15.3 ; +28.8] 2031-2060
Yam Rainfed -30 [-36 ; -28] 2015-2050
Cotton Rainfed +15 [+7 ; +31] 2031-2060
Rice Irrigated -24.5 [-45 ; -4.0] 2015-2050
Rice Rainfed -8.0 [-24 ; +9.0] 2031-2060
Yield changes (%) of different crops under rainfed/irrigated regimes & warming
Cocoa, Cashew
& Shea Nut
Pest/diseases, Soil
waterlogging, winds
gusts, shift (unfit) of
production areas
Decrease Neutral Increase
Decreasing
Prodcution by 2050s
Crop Production

10. Heat stress (water availability) & livestock
▪ Reduction in reproductive
performance, milk and meat
production &
▪ Weak immune system &
Outbreak of diseases
(Re)distribution of grazing
spaces, corridors &
infectious diseases
Livestock Mobility
Shifts (increase) in
transhumance, increasing
competition over natural
resources (land, water,
grass), agropastoral conflicts

11. Adaptation/Resilience Needs
Customized adaptation
strategy/water conservation
techniques
Customized Climate Services

12. Adaptation/Resilience Needs
• Rice mill, the drying unit using solar energy /
BURKINA FASO, Bobo Dioulasso
Of off-grid solar panel system in Niger/drinking water/fresh vegetable production
Infrastructure are key
element

13. BUT Some Constraints………
• Funds constraints
• knowledge gap,
• Terrorist attacks, political instability,
migration
• Gender inequality/inequity
• « There are no panaceas or one-size-
fits-all solutions » (Ostrom, 2007)
• Policies are still all too often designed
without properly considering local
communities’ realities

14. The Poverty Trap
Lack of
investment
Low Yields
Low labour
productivity
Low income
❖ Yield gap remains
➢ Enhanced by climate change
➢ Vulnerability Increases for the poorest
❖ Poverty and climate change
risks are at the heart of the mechanisms
explaining the yield gap.
vicious
Circle
The main obstacle to food security, fuel for conflicts & migration in W/A
The poor getting poorer…
😞
Case by case strategy/adaptation strategy to
sustainably improve, food security, the livelihood and
resilience of communities in West Africa

15. Which Adaptation Options?
Catalogue of Adpatation pratices for agric, water resources and coastal
zones of W/Africa

16. Technical,
Management,
Infrastructural
/
Equipment
S.W.O.T ➔ Effectiveness, Feasibility, Representativeness, Perception ➔ Sustainability indicators for West Africa
Crop production
Water Management
Coastal zones
Livestock & Fisheries ➔ Integrated water [natural] resources management
Adaptation Options (High Priority) ➔ Sustainable in the near future climate perspectives (S.W.O.T)
Which Adaptation Options (Crop Production)?

17. At What Cost?
Monetary valuation of operational implementation costs of sustainable adaptation
➢ Estimates based on 2019/2020 market prices (UEMOA) ➔ Adjusted to reflect depreciation,
discount rates, interest and projected inflation rates average over 2021-2060;
➢ Initial investment costs (High) becomes very low when considering 13-20% depreciation

18. At What Cost?
Costs of goods and services for sustainable development of grazing
space and transhumance corridors for livestock in West Africa.
*Inter (intra) – gouvernmental frameworks support integration/Nexus issues
*

19. 20%
18%
11%
15%
8%
11%
8%
11%
Remplacement Materiel informatique
Formation Continue Staff
Abonnement au Cloud
Couts Groupe Electrogene
Ordinateurs Serveur HPC
Couts Operationnel Internet
Changement type internet
Formation Staff Informatique
11%
19%
10%
14%
12%
11%
12%
11%
Remplacement Materiel Informatique
Formation Continue Staff
Abonnement au Cloud
Couts Groupe Electrogène
Ordinateurs Serveur HPC
Couts Operationnel Internet
Changement Type internet
Formation Staff Informatique
11%
19%
10%
14%
12%
11%
12%
11%
Remplacement Materiel Informatique
Formation Continue Staff
Abonnement au Cloud
Couts Groupe Electrogène
Ordinateurs Serveur HPC
Couts Operationnel Internet
Changement Type internet
Formation Staff Informatique
20%
18%
11%
15%
8%
11%
8%
11%
Remplacement Materiel informatique
Formation Continue Staff
Abonnement au Cloud
Couts Groupe Electrogene
Ordinateurs Serveur HPC
Couts Operationnel Internet
Changement type inter net
Formation Staff Informatique
A) Mali B) Niger
At What Cost?
Costs for making Weather Ready Nations in West Africa
Investment costs for the capacity
reinforcement of national institutions in
charge of hydrometeorological, civil
protection and disaster risk
management Services of Mali and
Niger based on the 2019/2020 baseline Investment Priorities in 1-5 years
Full modernization (National and Regional organizations) to improve and sustain the
quality of the services: USD324.5 million (USD290 million for the member states + $34.5
million for regional institutions such as ECOWAS, WASCAL, CILSS, etc.)
➔ (more details see ECOWAS Hydromet initiative, 2021)

20. ❖ Changes in trends and variability of the regional climate include high
frequency & intensity, duration, and timing of extreme weather
events/climatic hazards;
❖ Actual investigations of impacts show that the consequences may be dire
to Agric, and food system/food security in West Africa;
❖ Initial investment costs are higher for operational implementation of
structural adaptation options deemed sustainable in the future climate.
They will become low (much lower than cost of inaction) over short period
of time;
Summary & Ways Forward (1)

21. Summary & Ways Forward
Forward…
❑ Optimization & quick uptake of structural adaptation options,
Framework for operational adaptation must include:
❑ Operationalization must involve sovereign wealth funding, private
section (PPP), complemented by global funds ➔ b/c all adaptation options
deemed well-fitted to the future climate of West Africa are aligned with
sustainable & emergence goals of our countries.
➔ co-design, co-implementation, (stakeholder/user engagement at all levels of
decisions), capacity building (knowledge/technology transfer)
➔ gender equity, integrated transboundary & nexus approach, insurance
schemes, nature-based solutions (accounting for indigenous knowledge),
➔ research and innovation (R&I) in adaptation science to support optimization

22. Thank you