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RISK MANAGEMENT IN LNG FSRU
PERSPECTIVES IN PROJECT FINANCE CONTRACT
STRUCTURES IN LNG CHAIN & INSURANCE
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
1
 BY HIMADRI BANERJI
 EX CEO RELIANCE ENERGY
 MD ECOURJA
PRESENTATION FLOW
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
2
 INTRODUCTION TO FSRU
 KEY RISK ISSUES
 RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL
 THE CHANGING PARADIGM : NON RECOURSE FINANCING “A
REALITY IN LNG FSRU PROJECTS”
 EVOLVING CONTRACT STRUCTURES FOR R-LNG FSRU
 EVOLVING INSURANCE LNG FSRU TERMINALS
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
3
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
4
The face of global LNG is changing.
Oil majors are shifting from 'Traditional LNG' to 'Frontier LNG' by
employing cutting-edge technology to realize value in an
increasingly tighter gas market.
Floating LNG , FSRU, is a ground-breaking innovation based on
the integration of two existing technologies: Traditional LNG
Processing and Yard /Shipping construction.
INTRODUCTION
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
5
A series of key players are already positioned to develop
mid-scale 'stationary' facilities (Shell, Petrobras, GDF) or
working on smaller scale 'nomad' facilities, more
appropriate for smaller LNG players (Delek, Flex).
Due to the relatively unproven technology of FSRU we will
focus on assessing the main risks of the FSRU (during
completion and operation) and delivering the appropriate
structures to mitigate risks to make them bankable on the
Project Finance Market.
INTRODUCTION
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
6
There are currently 11 FSRUs in operation and an additional 33 in various
stages of construction. In Asia alone, we may soon see as many as 20 new
FSRU projects.
The region’s regas demand is expected to grow by 7.5 billion cubic feet per
day over the next five years, while an FSRU has an average regas capacity of
350 million cubic feet per day.
There are four types of construction that fall under the FSRU category:
•Jetty based ship-to-ship transfer where vaporizers are installed onboard
one ship, is perhaps the most conventional.
•Buoy import systems involving subsea gas pipelines and LNG vaporization
ships.
•Island jetty based ship-to-ship transfer systems.
•Converted LNG carriers with turret, subsea pipeline and vaporizer systems.
INTRODUCTION
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
7
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
8
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
9
It is often said that the essential characteristic of project finance is the
methodology of risk identification and subsequent risk allocation.
Before entering into a discussion of the financing-specific aspects of FSRU it is
worthwhile reviewing the various component elements of the LNG chain form the
perspective of risk analysis.
THE LNG CHAIN
Generally lumped together for obvious reasons, oil and gas are very different in a
number of critical respects, transportation being the most important.
Within the gas industry, the LNG business is in a class of its own due to the
enormous investment in infrastructure involved and the resultant rigidity of the
contractual relationships throughout the chain. For these reasons, it is almost
improper to speak of a global LNG market, as the industry is more an accumulation
of contractual monopolies.
KEY RISK ISSUES LNG FSRU
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
10
GAS MARKET
In North America and, to a lesser extent, in Northern Europe, the gas
business is a commodity trade with numerous buyers and sellers and
gas put into the system will be taken for a price, which will fluctuate in
accordance with supply and demand.
Elsewhere, gas tends to be produced only in response to a long-term gas
offtake agreement.
KEY RISK ISSUES LNG FSRU
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
11
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
12
1.Project Interdependency
2.Construction Risk
• Delays in construction
• Cost-Overruns
• Performance below guaranteed
parameters
• Materials and Labor Cost and
Availability
3. Operating Risk
• Operator performance
• Equipment failures
• Increased operational costs
• Labor Availability (e.g., seafarers)
RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN
LNG FSRU
4.Upstream Supply Risk
• Insufficient Reserves
• Failure of Supply
5.Downstream Market Risk
• Lack of Market Demand
• Competing Fuels
• Downstream Buyer Credit Risk
• Natural Gas Pricing
• Regulatory / Legal Regime
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
13
6. Credit & Payment Risk
• Risk of Non-Payment
• LNG or Gas Offtaker Creditworthiness
• Charterer Creditworthiness
7. Liquidity Risk
• Cost-overruns
• Invoice and cash-flow mismatches
• Commissioning and ramp-up periods
RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN
LNG FSRU
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
14
RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN
LNG FSRU TERMINAL
8. Force Majeure
• “Unforeseeable” risk
• Acts of God
• Inter-dependency of force majeure clauses throughout LNG
Supply Chain
• Force Majeure Clauses frequently not back-to-back
9. Political Risk
• Governmental support for project
• Permitting and Authorizations
• Role of State in Supply, Transportation and Offtake
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
15
10. Legal Risk
• Breach of contract and non-performance
• Enforceability
• Contractual ambiguity or silence
• Dispute resolution
• Developed vs. Developing Regulatory Environment
11. General Economic Risk
• LNG and Gas Demand and Supply
• LNG Vessel Demand and Supply
RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN
LNG FSRU
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
16
Market Risks for FSRU
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
17
RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN
LNG FSRU TERMINAL
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
18
RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN
LNG FSRU TERMINAL
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
19
Financing
LNG FSRU Terminals
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th
to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore
20
The emergence of a new type of LNG buyers has stressed the need to adapt the
finance structure of this capital-extensive industry.
Developing markets such as India and China represent the largest potential for the
LNG FSRU business while European nations, Japan, Korea and Taiwan’s consumption
have stabilized for the last couple of years.
Contrasting with investments backed on state-to-state agreements among high
investment grade major oil companies and equivalent rated utilities, new LNG FSRU
investments rely on below investment grade entities to ensure sufficient long-
term revenues to support a multi-billion dollar investment chain…. the non
recourse financing
The issues raised by this situation are compounded by the approach being
taken towards the financing of the different in-country components of the
chain; the LNG port / import terminal / FSRU unit and storage on the one
hand and the distribution network and power plants on the other hand, with
the emphasis being placed on the private sector, IPPs and Clean Energy
Development
Non Recourse Financing
a Reality in LNG FSRU Terminals
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
21
Key factors to success of non recourse financing
The creation of a strong regulatory framework as well as
The limitation of project risks allocated to the LNG
Terminal Company.
Risk Mitigated Project Contract Structure
A well defined project risk allocation and control
methodology
Preference to Project Tolling Structure,
which transfers some of the LNG import
business risks such as supply and market
risk on foreign or third parties.
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
22
Non recourse Financing
a reality in LNG Import terminals
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
23
Until the 1990s, the industry was largely financed on the back of state-to-state agreements
among strong national counter-parties with the active involvement of high investment
grade-rated major oil companies and equivalently rated utilities.
The projects implemented over the past decade have seen an increasing reliance on limited
recourse finance, but with high or medium investment grade countries on either end of the
chain and very strong industry players managing the process.
Significantly, the only large project during the period not fitting that approach or benefiting
from structural supports to achieve that result, Nigeria NLG, was developed from sponsors’
own equity funds.
Even those that were implemented using project finance for the most part involved a critical
combination of host government’s supports and undertakings on the supply and offtake
ends and the integration into the overall financing of multilateral agency or export agency
credits.
Non Recourse Financing
Reality in FSRU
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
24
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
25
Evolving Project Contract Structure helps Risk Management
Merchant
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
26
Evolving Project Contract Structure helps Risk Management
TOLLING STRUCTURE
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
27
Evolving Project Contract Structure helps Risk Management
GAIL PETRONET CONTRACT STRUCTURE
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
28
Evolving Project Contract Structure helps Risk Management
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
29
Evolving Project insurance Structure helps Risk Management
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
30
Evolving Project insurance Structure helps Risk Management
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
31
Evolving Project insurance Structure helps Risk Management
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
32
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
36
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
37
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
38
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
39
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
40
Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND
FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013
Singapore
41

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Risk management FSRU himadri banerji

  • 1. RISK MANAGEMENT IN LNG FSRU PERSPECTIVES IN PROJECT FINANCE CONTRACT STRUCTURES IN LNG CHAIN & INSURANCE Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 1  BY HIMADRI BANERJI  EX CEO RELIANCE ENERGY  MD ECOURJA
  • 2. PRESENTATION FLOW Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 2  INTRODUCTION TO FSRU  KEY RISK ISSUES  RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL  THE CHANGING PARADIGM : NON RECOURSE FINANCING “A REALITY IN LNG FSRU PROJECTS”  EVOLVING CONTRACT STRUCTURES FOR R-LNG FSRU  EVOLVING INSURANCE LNG FSRU TERMINALS
  • 3. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 3
  • 4. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 4 The face of global LNG is changing. Oil majors are shifting from 'Traditional LNG' to 'Frontier LNG' by employing cutting-edge technology to realize value in an increasingly tighter gas market. Floating LNG , FSRU, is a ground-breaking innovation based on the integration of two existing technologies: Traditional LNG Processing and Yard /Shipping construction. INTRODUCTION
  • 5. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 5 A series of key players are already positioned to develop mid-scale 'stationary' facilities (Shell, Petrobras, GDF) or working on smaller scale 'nomad' facilities, more appropriate for smaller LNG players (Delek, Flex). Due to the relatively unproven technology of FSRU we will focus on assessing the main risks of the FSRU (during completion and operation) and delivering the appropriate structures to mitigate risks to make them bankable on the Project Finance Market. INTRODUCTION
  • 6. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 6 There are currently 11 FSRUs in operation and an additional 33 in various stages of construction. In Asia alone, we may soon see as many as 20 new FSRU projects. The region’s regas demand is expected to grow by 7.5 billion cubic feet per day over the next five years, while an FSRU has an average regas capacity of 350 million cubic feet per day. There are four types of construction that fall under the FSRU category: •Jetty based ship-to-ship transfer where vaporizers are installed onboard one ship, is perhaps the most conventional. •Buoy import systems involving subsea gas pipelines and LNG vaporization ships. •Island jetty based ship-to-ship transfer systems. •Converted LNG carriers with turret, subsea pipeline and vaporizer systems. INTRODUCTION
  • 7. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 7
  • 8. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 8
  • 9. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 9 It is often said that the essential characteristic of project finance is the methodology of risk identification and subsequent risk allocation. Before entering into a discussion of the financing-specific aspects of FSRU it is worthwhile reviewing the various component elements of the LNG chain form the perspective of risk analysis. THE LNG CHAIN Generally lumped together for obvious reasons, oil and gas are very different in a number of critical respects, transportation being the most important. Within the gas industry, the LNG business is in a class of its own due to the enormous investment in infrastructure involved and the resultant rigidity of the contractual relationships throughout the chain. For these reasons, it is almost improper to speak of a global LNG market, as the industry is more an accumulation of contractual monopolies. KEY RISK ISSUES LNG FSRU
  • 10. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 10 GAS MARKET In North America and, to a lesser extent, in Northern Europe, the gas business is a commodity trade with numerous buyers and sellers and gas put into the system will be taken for a price, which will fluctuate in accordance with supply and demand. Elsewhere, gas tends to be produced only in response to a long-term gas offtake agreement. KEY RISK ISSUES LNG FSRU
  • 11. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 11
  • 12. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 12 1.Project Interdependency 2.Construction Risk • Delays in construction • Cost-Overruns • Performance below guaranteed parameters • Materials and Labor Cost and Availability 3. Operating Risk • Operator performance • Equipment failures • Increased operational costs • Labor Availability (e.g., seafarers) RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN LNG FSRU 4.Upstream Supply Risk • Insufficient Reserves • Failure of Supply 5.Downstream Market Risk • Lack of Market Demand • Competing Fuels • Downstream Buyer Credit Risk • Natural Gas Pricing • Regulatory / Legal Regime
  • 13. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 13 6. Credit & Payment Risk • Risk of Non-Payment • LNG or Gas Offtaker Creditworthiness • Charterer Creditworthiness 7. Liquidity Risk • Cost-overruns • Invoice and cash-flow mismatches • Commissioning and ramp-up periods RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN LNG FSRU
  • 14. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 14 RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN LNG FSRU TERMINAL 8. Force Majeure • “Unforeseeable” risk • Acts of God • Inter-dependency of force majeure clauses throughout LNG Supply Chain • Force Majeure Clauses frequently not back-to-back 9. Political Risk • Governmental support for project • Permitting and Authorizations • Role of State in Supply, Transportation and Offtake
  • 15. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 15 10. Legal Risk • Breach of contract and non-performance • Enforceability • Contractual ambiguity or silence • Dispute resolution • Developed vs. Developing Regulatory Environment 11. General Economic Risk • LNG and Gas Demand and Supply • LNG Vessel Demand and Supply RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN LNG FSRU
  • 16. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 16 Market Risks for FSRU
  • 17. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 17 RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN LNG FSRU TERMINAL
  • 18. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 18 RISK ALLOCATION AND CONTROL IN LNG FSRU TERMINAL
  • 19. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 19
  • 20. Financing LNG FSRU Terminals Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 20 The emergence of a new type of LNG buyers has stressed the need to adapt the finance structure of this capital-extensive industry. Developing markets such as India and China represent the largest potential for the LNG FSRU business while European nations, Japan, Korea and Taiwan’s consumption have stabilized for the last couple of years. Contrasting with investments backed on state-to-state agreements among high investment grade major oil companies and equivalent rated utilities, new LNG FSRU investments rely on below investment grade entities to ensure sufficient long- term revenues to support a multi-billion dollar investment chain…. the non recourse financing The issues raised by this situation are compounded by the approach being taken towards the financing of the different in-country components of the chain; the LNG port / import terminal / FSRU unit and storage on the one hand and the distribution network and power plants on the other hand, with the emphasis being placed on the private sector, IPPs and Clean Energy Development
  • 21. Non Recourse Financing a Reality in LNG FSRU Terminals Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 21 Key factors to success of non recourse financing The creation of a strong regulatory framework as well as The limitation of project risks allocated to the LNG Terminal Company. Risk Mitigated Project Contract Structure A well defined project risk allocation and control methodology Preference to Project Tolling Structure, which transfers some of the LNG import business risks such as supply and market risk on foreign or third parties.
  • 22. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 22 Non recourse Financing a reality in LNG Import terminals
  • 23. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 23 Until the 1990s, the industry was largely financed on the back of state-to-state agreements among strong national counter-parties with the active involvement of high investment grade-rated major oil companies and equivalently rated utilities. The projects implemented over the past decade have seen an increasing reliance on limited recourse finance, but with high or medium investment grade countries on either end of the chain and very strong industry players managing the process. Significantly, the only large project during the period not fitting that approach or benefiting from structural supports to achieve that result, Nigeria NLG, was developed from sponsors’ own equity funds. Even those that were implemented using project finance for the most part involved a critical combination of host government’s supports and undertakings on the supply and offtake ends and the integration into the overall financing of multilateral agency or export agency credits. Non Recourse Financing Reality in FSRU
  • 24. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 24
  • 25. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 25 Evolving Project Contract Structure helps Risk Management Merchant
  • 26. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 26 Evolving Project Contract Structure helps Risk Management TOLLING STRUCTURE
  • 27. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 27 Evolving Project Contract Structure helps Risk Management GAIL PETRONET CONTRACT STRUCTURE
  • 28. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 28 Evolving Project Contract Structure helps Risk Management
  • 29. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 29 Evolving Project insurance Structure helps Risk Management
  • 30. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 30 Evolving Project insurance Structure helps Risk Management
  • 31. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 31 Evolving Project insurance Structure helps Risk Management
  • 32. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 32
  • 33. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 36
  • 34. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 37
  • 35. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 38
  • 36. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 39
  • 37. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 40
  • 38. Presented by Dr. Himadri Banerji at the 2ND FSRU Conference 26th to 29th Nov 2013 Singapore 41