This document discusses scenarios for achieving 60% protein self-sufficiency in Finland by 2030 in an environmentally sustainable way. It presents Finland's current state of protein production and consumption, then outlines three scenarios and one extreme scenario for reaching the 60% target. The scenarios involve changing consumption through new healthy products, improving production efficiency through technology, or policy guidance. Environmental impacts will be assessed using life cycle assessment to determine the most viable approach.

1. © Natural Resources Institute Finland
Sanna Hietala, Galyna Medyna
Rethinking national protein self-sufficiency:
first environmental assessments of national
Finnish protein supply-consumption scenarios

2. © Natural Resources Institute Finland2
Environmental assessment for future scenarios
 ”Can 60% of protein self-sufficiency be achieved in Finland in a way
that contributes to lowering environmental impacts?”
The main working hypothesis is that lowering the consumption of high-
impact ruminent animal proteins while encouraging diversity of protein
sources is the most viable way to lower environmental impacts while
achieving the 60% threshold (in a way that is accepted by consumers).

3. © Natural Resources Institute Finland
• Project produces roadmaps, scenarios to achieve the set goal
of 60% protein self-sufficiency on food and feed protein
• Focus in protein from different sources: legumes, cereals,
insects, fish..
• The scenarios’ environmental impacts at national scale are
assessed using life cycle assessment
– LCA is based on literature/database review and previous
modellings by Luke
– Future scenarios in line with future research center report by
Kuhmonen et al. 2017, Suomen proteiinijärjestelmän
vaihtoehtoiset tulevaisuudet.
23-Jan-19
Novel protein sources for food security (ScenoProt)
3
Environmental assessment for future scenarios

4. Feed / Crop cultivation
Cattle farm
Slaughter
Emissions,
Manure,
waste
Emissions
(CH4, CO2, N2O)
waste
Emissions,
Co-products,
waste
Fertilisers,
herbicides,
pesticides
energy, water
Materials,
energy
Materials,
energy
Input Output
51,5 t silage
30 t barley
4 t other waste
21 bulls
6800 kg carcass
4762 kg meat
1000 kg protein

5. © Natural Resources Institute Finland5
Proteins – where are they?
There are many sources of protein, covering all types of diets
Protein content range per product group
Fresh Dry Cooked
Legumes 5,6-13 19,4-36,2 6,4-18,2
Oilcrops 18,9-31,6
Pseudocereals 11,9-14,1 3,4-5,7
Fungi 0,5-4,9 15,2-35,8 1,6-2,2
Insects 18,7-20,1 47,2-67,9
Fish 19,7-20,4 19-22,1
Meat 18,9-21,1 23,6-29,8
Sources: Fineli, USDA database

6. © Natural Resources Institute Finland6
Proteins – not all are environmentally equal
Greenhouse gasses per kg protein, by source
Legumes
Pseudocereals
Insects
Farmed fish
Wild fish
Beef, DB
Beef, BB
Dairy
Pork
Poultry
Sources:Cederberg, C. & Mattsson, B. 2000, Finnigan, T., Lemon, M., Allan, B. & Paton, I. 2010, Head, M., S
Saarinen, Merja, et al. (2011).Silvenius, F., Mäkinen, T., Grönroos, J., Kurppa, S., Tahvonen, R., Kankainen, M
Williams, A.G., Audsley, E. and Sandars, D.L. (2006) , Winther, U., Ziegler, F., Hognes, E. S., Emanuelsson, A
Zhu, X., & van Ierland, E. C. (2004)

7. © Natural Resources Institute Finland7
Proteins – what do we and animals eat in Finland?
Wheat
13 %
Oat
17 %
Barley
25 %
Faba beans
1%
Peas
0%
Soy beans
7 %
Rapeseed
12%
Beef
2%
Pork
4%
Poultry
3%
Eggs
1% Fish
4%
Milk
3%
Cheese
5%
Yogurt
1%
Other dairy
2%
Demand [Mkg, 873,50Mkg total]
Source: Balance sheet for food
commodities (2015) Helsinki: Natural
resources institute Finland,
Luonnonvarakeskus

8. © Natural Resources Institute Finland8
”Self-sufficiency” for Finnish proteins
“Our vision is that in 2030 the Finnish consumers will eat tasty, wholesome,
sustainably produced and nutritionally sufficient doses of protein, optimized for
each age cohort according to Finnish nutrition recommendations. The protein
self-sufficiency is around 60%. Consumers have shifted from high meat
consumption to plant- and mushroom based foods and the use of fish and
other aquatic products have increased in the diet. (…)”
https://www.luke.fi/scenoprot/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/11/Luke-policybrief-scenoprot_en_web.pdf

9. © Natural Resources Institute Finland9
What do we mean by ”self-sufficiency” and how do we
calculate it?
“The concept of food self-sufficiency is generally taken to mean the
extent to which a country can satisfy its food needs from its own
domestic production” (FAO, 1999)
FAO “Self-sufficiency ratio” shows the extent to which a country relies
on its own production resources
SSR= (Production/(production + imports – exports))*100

10. © Natural Resources Institute Finland10
What do we mean by ”self-sufficiency” and how do we
calculate it?
Our definition:
SSRLuke = Production / (production + imports)*100
 Imports and not net imports
 exports can reresent significant income
 If exports are lowered, then self-sufficiency directly increases
 Food waste and chain losses are not considered in the calculation

11. © Natural Resources Institute Finland11
Current state of proteins in Finland

12. © Natural Resources Institute Finland12
Assessment of this baseline for supplement protein
Important supplement protein
sources
Share from total
[%]
Domestic production
[million kg protein]
Imported [million kg
protein]
Self-sufficiency
[%]
Faba bean 3 % 4.6 0.0 100 %
Peas 2 % 2.2 1.2 64 %
Soy bean 35 % 0.0 61.7 0 %
Rapeseed and turnip rape 60 % 17.5 88.0 17 %
TOT 14 %
24.3 150.9
How to achieve 60 % self-sufficiency
Current [million kg protein]Goal [million kg protein]
> current 24,3 + 80,8 million kg
imported protein replaced with
domestically produced
Total supplement need 175.2 175.2
Current domestic prod. 24.3 105.144
14 % 60 % 80.8

13. © Natural Resources Institute Finland13
First results of environmetal assessment for baseline
TOTAL PROTEIN AMOUNT [kg]
SET VALUE 873530000

14. © Natural Resources Institute Finland14
First results of environmental assessment for baseline

15. © Natural Resources Institute Finland15
First results of environmental assessment for baseline

16. © Natural Resources Institute Finland16
Proteins in 2030 – impact of reaching 60% self-sufficiency
 Baseline
 Three base scenarios for 2030
 One extreme scenario

17. © Natural Resources Institute Finland17
Scenarios for reaching self-sufficiency in 2030
Scenario (1) Consumers choose
– “the hipster”
(2) Technology
efficiency – “the savvy
business”
(3) Policy decides –
“the good Samaritan”
(4) Unrealistic lean –
“the ultimate”
Basic assumptions New healthy products
change consumption and,
consequently, demand
for new raw materials
Technology rebuilds raw
material production to be
more durable and more
efficient, affecting the
entire chain
Policy guides both raw
material production,
processing and
consumption towards the
idea of sustainable
development
Radical changes are
implemented
Types of proteins increase in “exotic”
proteins demand in
Finland (= more domestic
proteins, focus on more
versatile ones), lower
meat production (= less
imported protein for feed)
same crops as now (or
even last two decades?)
but with increased
productivity (= more with
less, increased
production of proteins
from sidestreams), focus
on domestic aquaculture
and plant protein sources
achieve the 60% goal
with the lowest
environmental value
possible and the most
diverse sources of protein
possible, including animal
proteins
Achieve the 60% goal
with the lowest
environmental value
possible, disregarding
plausibility, only take into
account feasibility
# protein distribution TDB Finnish food/feed crops
(+XYZ% production),
Finnish aquaculture
(+ABC% production),
TBD Mathmatical

18. © Natural Resources Institute Finland18
Assumptions for 2030 assessments
• Starting point – latest data available for protein consumption (food
and feed) – 2016
• Changes to arable land, population, growing seasons and practices
to 2030
• All scenarios (except the 4th one) must showcase realistic
representation of consumption
 Fine-tune baseline
 Apply assumptions
 Publication of results

19. Thank you!
Sanna Hietala
+358 29 5326021
sanna.hietala@luke.fi
Galyna Medyna
+358 29 532 2147
galyna.medyna@luke.fi
Discussion, feedback and
questions!