The presentations aims to explain the outlook for Solar PV for 2017. The key trend is the falling demand from China which would lead to an overcapacity in the module manufacturing space eventually leading to a lower pricing power.

1. China & Global Solar PV Outlook 2017:Changing Market
Trends
GENSOL CONSULTANTS PVT. LTD.

2. 1.China’s Changing Energy Landscape
Source: BP Outlook 2017
ChinaBy2035
China’s demand for energy is projected to grow by less than 2% p.a. between 2015
and 2035, compared with above 6% p.a. over the past 20 years
The slowdown in energy demand reflects dampening industrial output
China’s energy intensity is expected to slide by 3% p.a. till 2035 - significantly quicker
than the projected global average - matching with that of US.
While China’s economy is forecasted to expand by 167% from 2015 to 2035, its
energy intensity is expected to dip by 45%.
China’s GDP & Primary Demand Growth Energy Intensity

3. Over past few years, China has overtaken all other countries for installed
capacity of solar, wind and hydro power, although there is an increasing
slowdown in the electricity demand. Notwithstanding this, Chinese Govt. is
highly intent on investing in clean energy, primarily, to meet their pertinent
targets.
In 2016-2017, China accounted for more than 40% of
all renewable energy capacity installed outside the
U.S., with at least 100 GW added in combined sectors
The main factors that are driving clean energy
investments in China are mammoth electricity demand
and Feed-In Tariff scheme for wind and solar.
2.China’s Renewable Energy Market Scenario
Source: ITA Renewable Energy Market Report 2016
http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/chinas-ambitious-new-clean-energy-targets

4. 3. China’s 12th Year Plan Solar PV Development :
2011-2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016
5
10
14
20
35
2
3.5
10.955 10.6
15.13
2.9
6.5
17.45
28.05
43.18
75%
213%
-3%
43%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YoYChange%
CapacityinGW
12th Year Plan : Targeted Vs Installed
Target (GW) Annual Installations (GW) Cumulative Installations (GW) YoY Installation (%)
China’s Clean energy investment rose by about 17% and recorded about $110 billion
in renewable energy investment transactions in 2015, representing well over a third
of the global total. China installed over 15 GW of new PV in 2015*.
*https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/china-s-slowing-power-consumption-highlights-clean-
energy-gains

5. 4. China’s 13th Year Plan RE Target :
2016-2020
13thYearPlan
(2016-2020):MainTargets
13th Five Year Year Plan aims at re-tarring road for country’s smooth turn from
coal driven industry to sustainability, diversifying its energy mix, with focus
on wind and solar.
China is also very ambitious about Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and has
chalked out a 5 GW target for this period.
China’s National Development and Reform Commission has announced a
Feed-in-Tariff rate ( ￥1.15/kWh) for CSP in 2016, which is likely to drive
investment.
The average annual new PV installed capacity will reach 20 GW for a total
new installed capacity of 150 GW (Revised 105 GW)
National Energy Administration (NEA) has unveiled its plan to cap grid
curtailment at 5% for the entire year in order to promote SPV.
By 2020, PV industry in China is expected to create 7 millions jobs
Introduction of Domestic Green Certificate Trading Scheme by 2020, so that
use of renewable energy expands to occupy 5%-13% share in the total energy
consumption basket*.
*https://renewablesnow.com/news/china-to-spur-renewables-use-with-green-certificates-515823
http://www.solarpaces.org/press-room/news/item/112-china-released-feed-in-tariff-for-csp-demonstration-
projects

6. 5. Summary of PV Market in China 2011-
2020 under 12th and 13th FYP
New energy outlook suggests lower GDP and lower power consumption rates in future
Supply anticipated to exceed demand by 2020
Streamlining of regulatory framework required to improve business environment
No targets defined for distributed generation
Lower power consumption growth rates is creating ripples in the energy market
*https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/china-s-slowing-power-consumption-highlights-clean-
energy-gains
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/china-invest-renewable-fuel-2020-energy

7. 6.China’s Market Development, Forecast Vs
Reductions in Feed-In-Tariffs : 2010-2020 (1/2)
With the increase in global energy demand and competitive market trends, Feed In
Tariff levels are expected to fall more than 50% by 2020 in China. Alongside, FIT
Schemes are being increasingly replaced by Green Certificates and tender-based
competitive bidding schemes, which represents a major shift in Chinese Solar Market.
0.86 2.90 6.50
17.45
28.05
43.00
77.42
105.00
126.00
132.00
150.00
105.00
1.15 1.15
1.00 1.00
0.90 0.90
0.80
0.65 0.65
0.57 0.58
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2020
(Target)
FIT(RMB/kWh)
CumulativeCapacity(GW)
Cumulative Capacity Installed Vs FIT Reductions
PV Cummulative Installations (GW) Lowest Utility Solar PV FIT (RMB/kwh)
Source: http://pv.energytrend.com/news/China_FIT_Scheme_for_PV_Projects_for_2017_Officially_Revealed.html

8. 7.China’s Market Development, Forecast Vs
Reductions in Feed-In-Tariffs : 2010-2020 (2/2)
An optimistic view says that China’s PV demand will hit 30 GW by the end of 2017
0.56
2
3.5
10.95 10.6
15.13
34.54
30
25 25 25
30
40
0.56
2
3.5
10.95 10.6
15.13
34.54
20
13 13 13
20 20
0.56
2
3.5
10.95 10.6
15.13
34.54
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022P 2025P
CapaciityinGW
Year
China’s Annual Demand Forecast : 2017-2025
Actual Deployement Optimistic (GW) Actual Deployement Pessimistic (GW)
Actual Deployement (GW)
Source: China’s Market Dynamics AECEA 2017

9. 2014: Tenders announced for approximately 11.9 GW
2015 : Tenders announced for approximately 22.0 GW
2016: Tenders announced for approximately 15 GW
2017: Data shown till mid-March only
8. China’s Demand Analysis – Monthly
Tendered Projects (MW)
FIT Schemes are increasingly
replaced by Tender based
Schemes
1794 1600
1977
5032
1200
1500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2016 2017
DEMAND ANALYSIS IN MW
-Q1 2016 VS Q 2017
Januray February March
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/china-and-us-lead-way-with-wind-
power-installations-says-global-energy-report.html

10. 9. Global Renewables Share (2015-2035)-1/2
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2017
Renewable share of Power Share Shares of Renewable Power Growth
Share of renewable energy in the global energy basket currently stands at 40% and it
is expected to increase further. Going forward, China will be a major contributor to this
growth by 2035.
https://about.bnef.com/clean-energy-investment/

11. 10. Global Renewables Share (2015-2035)-2/2
0.413
0.072 0.087
0.462
0.13 0.058
0.32
0.135
0.086
0.395
0.24
0.138
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2011 2016 2017PRICEINDEX(USD/WP)
YEAR
Module Price Breakdown Development
Module Cell Wafer Poly Si
The EU continues to lead the way in terms of the
penetration of renewables, with the share of
renewables within the EU power sector doubling to
almost 40% by 2035.
However, China is the largest source of growth over
the next 20 years, adding more renewable power
than the EU and US combined.
Then again, Solar PV capacity additions may have
increased by as much as 50% in 2016 compared
with 2015, but asset financing for solar PV was
significantly lower, largely because of cost declines,
policy changes and integration concerns in specific
markets, such as China and Japan.
The levelized costs of generation per MWh for
onshore wind is expected to fall 41% by 2040, and
60% for solar photovoltaics, making these two
technologies the cheapest options of producing
electricity.
Source: International Technology Roadmap
for Photovoltaics, March 2017
Source: *BNEF, June 2016

12. 11. Global Weighted Average Utility scale
Solar PV Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Source: IRENA : Rethinking Energy March 2017
During 2010-2015, the LCOE plummeted by 60% due to increasing competition in the
solar PV market. Keeping in mind the current trends of cost reductions, it is
estimated that supply will overshoot demand in the upcoming years*.
http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2000909/solar-
prospects-dim-subsidies-peter-out-and-overcapacity-builds

13. 12. Global PV Demand Prospects : 2017 (1/2)
Source: GTM Research Global Demand Monitor Q4 2016
During 2017, approximately 70-80 GW of solar PV projects are expected to be
installed, whose footprints have been mapped below

14. 13. Global PV Demand Prospects : 2017 (2/2)
Source: GTM Research Global Demand Monitor Q4 2016
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/global-solar-demand-still-shrinking-
but-at-a-lower-rate

15. 14. Global PV Market Evolution : 2015-2020
Current estimates show that global PV market will take a dip in year 2017 before taking
a leap forward from 2018 onwards to reach 180 GW by 2020.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2015 (Installed) 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P
CapacityinGW
Year
Global PV Market Evoluiton 2015-2020
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Source: PV Market Alliance –Global PV Market
Report 2016-2020

16. 15. Global PV Market Potential 2017 & 2018
Statistics reveal that the Solar PV market has been swelling two-fold on YoY basis in
different region, including South East Asia like China.
0.0
20000.0
40000.0
60000.0
80000.0
100000.0
Optimistic 2018 Most Likely 2018 Pessimistic 2018
PV Market Potential Forecast in 2018 MW
(Demand Basis)
Eastern Europe Middle East Northern Africa
Oceania Sub-Sahara Africa Western Europe
South Asia South East Asia North East and Central Asia
North America Latin America & Carribean
Source: PV Market Alliance –Global PV Market
Report 2016-2020
0.0
20000.0
40000.0
60000.0
80000.0
100000.0
Optimistic 2017 Most Likely 2017 Pessimistic 2017
PV Market Potential Forecast in 2017 MW
(Demand Basis)
Eastern Europe Middle East Northern Africa
Oceania Sub-Sahara Africa Western Europe
South Asia South East Asia North East and Central Asia
North America Latin America & Carribean

17. China is expected to be the largest growth market for energy,
although it is likely to be overtaken by India by 2020-2035*.
The global announcements made in 2016 for the Cell/Module
Production capacity exceeds 50 GW.
16. Global Supply Prospects-2017
Source: PV –Tech Mark Osborne 2017Source: Renewable Energy Top
Markets Report 2015
Projected Solar Energy
Export Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-energy-
hits-a-turning-point-solar-that-s-cheaper-than-wind

18. 17. Key Highlights
China’s Energy Intensity has declined by an average 3% p.a during the period 2010-2016, which
hints towards a gradually fading demand.
Despite of dampening outlook for demand during 2016-2020, interestingly, the Chinese Govt. is
intent on scaling up investments in clean energy program to achieve its 13th year plan targets.
Due to burgeoning competition in the China’s solar PV supply market, the module prices have
been declining steeply on YoY basis, which, in turn, is forcing Levelized cost of Energy (LCOE) to
move southwards. Intriguingly, the LCOE has got reduced by 60% during the period 2010-2015 .
It is predicted that falling LCOE will further hammer down FIT by 50% till 2020, thus, making a
strong case for replacing FIT schemes by competitive bidding route of allocation. Based on this
prognosis, it is estimated that annual demand for PV projects further go down to 25GW in
comparison to previous years’ demand of 34.54 GW.
Cell/Module manufacturers from the world over have announced their plans to ramp up their
production capacity in China by 13 GW in the coming years.
This antithesis between demand and supply in China will open avenues of exports shift into India
(2nd biggest consumer after China), which will directly drive down module prices and,
consequently, project economics here.

19. Few Facts:
• 250+ Trained Team - all Graduates and Post Graduates in
Energy and Environment
• 6490 MW+ Solar Power Projects under advisory
• 43 MW+ Solar Rooftop & ground mounted Projects under
Execution
• Recipient of multiple awards including Business World Hottest
Young Entrepreneur and Economic Times Power of Ideas.
Quoted In:
Business Dailies: Business Standard | Economic Times Business
Magazines: Business India | Forbes India
Industry Journals: Power Line | Energetica | EQ International
Empanelled With:
Ministry of New & Renewable Energy
ANERT, Kerala (10,000 solar rooftops program)
Central Bank of India, PTC Project Financial Services, PFC
L&T Infra Finance & Other Banks
About Gensol

20. Gensol Engineering Pvt Ltd | Gensol Consultants Pvt Ltd
Corporate Office Southern Business Unit
108, Pinnacle Business Park Unit No.2, Eternal Corporate Services
Opp Royal Orchid, Prahladnagar 3rd Floor, A Block # 1-98/5/3, Sy. No. 86,
Ahmedabad, Gujarat Eternal Samyukhta, Madhapura,
India - 380015 Hitech City, Hyderabad – 500081
Email : solar@gensol.in
Website: www.gensol.in
Phone : +91 79 40068235
Mob : +91 93270 16962
Fax : +91 79 40068239
Twitter : gensol_tweets