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© OECD/IEA 2017
Beijing, 8 December 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
A world in transition, and moved by China
 Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook:
 The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas
 Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries
 China’s new drive to “make the skies blue again” is recasting its role in energy
 The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation
 China’s drive for “blue skies” has domestic and global implications:
 New era of development & economic shift towards light industries & services change
structure of energy use
 Energy demand growth slowing; predominance of coal under challenge
 Leadership for China in a range of clean energy technologies, increasing role in gas markets
 Environmental considerations to the fore, notably air quality
© OECD/IEA 2017
A world in motion..
Change in world energy demand by fuel
Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand:
Coal (Mtce)
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Oil (mb/d)
6
12
18
24
30
1990-2016 2016-40
Gas (bcm)
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
1990-2016 2016-40
Low-carbon (Mtoe)
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
1990-2016 2016-401990-2016 2016-40
© OECD/IEA 2017
.. as China moves global energy markets, again
Change in world energy demand by fuel
Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand:
Coal (Mtce)
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
- 500
1990-2016 2016-40
Oil (mb/d)
6
12
18
24
30
1990-2016 2016-40
Gas (bcm)
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
1990-2016 2016-40
Low-carbon (Mtoe)
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
1990-2016 2016-40
China’s switch to a new economic model & a cleaner energy mix drives global trends
Other countriesChina
© OECD/IEA 2017
The future is electrifying
Electricity generation by selected region
India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040,
Middle East
2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000
Africa
Southeast Asia
European Union
India
United States
China
TWh
2016 Growth to 2040
Sources of global
electricity demand growth
Industrial
motors
Cooling
Large
appliances
Connected
& small
appliances
Electric vehicles
Other
while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States
© OECD/IEA 2017
Solar PV forges ahead in the China’s power mix
China average annual net capacity additions by type
China turns away from coal while confirming its position as the global leader in clean energy,
leading the way on solar PV, wind power, hydropower and nuclear
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
10 20 30 40 50 60 GW
2010-2016
2017-2040
Solar PV Wind
Solar PV Wind Other
Other
© OECD/IEA 2017
China becomes the world’s largest oil importer
China oil demand growth by sector
China becomes the world’s largest oil importer by around 2020; air quality policies could
lead to a plateau or peak in oil demand, but oil security remains a challenge
China passenger car stock
Electric
Conventional
1
2
3
4
mb/d
Cars
Trucks
Petrochemicals
Other
300
400
500
100
200
Million
2016 20402020 2025 2030 2035 20402016
© OECD/IEA 2017
706 bcm in 2016
Global gas trade
LNG ushers in a new global gas order
39% shipped by LNG
1 230 bcm in 2040
59% shipped by LNG
© OECD/IEA 2017
706 bcm in 2016
Global gas trade
LNG ushers in a new global gas order
Gas exporters
39% shipped by LNG
1 230 bcm in 2040
59% shipped by LNG
Australia
Russia
& Caspian
Middle
East
Other
Africa
US &
Canada
Australia
Russia
& Caspian
Middle
East Other
AfricaUS
& Canada
© OECD/IEA 2017
706 bcm in 2016
Global gas trade
Asia’s growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG,
with exports from the US accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market
LNG ushers in a new global gas order
Gas exportersGas importers
39% shipped by LNG
1 230 bcm in 2040
59% shipped by LNG
Australia
Russia
& Caspian
Middle
East
Other
Africa
US &
Canada
Australia
Russia
& Caspian
Middle
East Other
AfricaUS
& Canada
Other Other
Other Asia
China
Japan
& Korea
Japan
& Korea
China
Other Asia
Europe
Europe
© OECD/IEA 2017
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
China leads the push for clean energy technologies
China’s share of global investment, 2017-2040
China is the leading global investor in power generation and end-use sectors; its emphasis
on clean energy investment is a driver of the global clean energy transition
Electric vehicles
Energy efficiency
Wind
Solar PV
Nuclear
© OECD/IEA 2017
Conclusions
 Structural shifts in the economy and the clean energy transition change quantity &
quality of energy demand growth; China moves global energy markets – once again
 China is set first to become the world‘s largest oil importer, and then the largest oil
consumer; future oil security hinges on supply- and demand-side policies
 Natural gas helps to replace coal in the energy mix and soon makes China the world’s
largest gas importer, with strong implications for global LNG markets
 China remains the world’s largest investor in clean energy; its success in delivering on a
clean energy transition is critical for its own as well as global environmental goals
 As China joined the IEA family in 2015 and partnership grows, the WEO-2017 China
Outlook sheds light on China’s energy challenges & opportunities in a global context
© OECD/IEA 2017
iea.org/weo

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WEO 2017: China

  • 1. © OECD/IEA 2017 Beijing, 8 December 2017
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2017 A world in transition, and moved by China  Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook:  The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas  Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries  China’s new drive to “make the skies blue again” is recasting its role in energy  The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation  China’s drive for “blue skies” has domestic and global implications:  New era of development & economic shift towards light industries & services change structure of energy use  Energy demand growth slowing; predominance of coal under challenge  Leadership for China in a range of clean energy technologies, increasing role in gas markets  Environmental considerations to the fore, notably air quality
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2017 A world in motion.. Change in world energy demand by fuel Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand: Coal (Mtce) 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 Oil (mb/d) 6 12 18 24 30 1990-2016 2016-40 Gas (bcm) 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 1990-2016 2016-40 Low-carbon (Mtoe) 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 1990-2016 2016-401990-2016 2016-40
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2017 .. as China moves global energy markets, again Change in world energy demand by fuel Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand: Coal (Mtce) 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 - 500 1990-2016 2016-40 Oil (mb/d) 6 12 18 24 30 1990-2016 2016-40 Gas (bcm) 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 1990-2016 2016-40 Low-carbon (Mtoe) 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 1990-2016 2016-40 China’s switch to a new economic model & a cleaner energy mix drives global trends Other countriesChina
  • 5. © OECD/IEA 2017 The future is electrifying Electricity generation by selected region India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040, Middle East 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 Africa Southeast Asia European Union India United States China TWh 2016 Growth to 2040 Sources of global electricity demand growth Industrial motors Cooling Large appliances Connected & small appliances Electric vehicles Other while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2017 Solar PV forges ahead in the China’s power mix China average annual net capacity additions by type China turns away from coal while confirming its position as the global leader in clean energy, leading the way on solar PV, wind power, hydropower and nuclear Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal 10 20 30 40 50 60 GW 2010-2016 2017-2040 Solar PV Wind Solar PV Wind Other Other
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2017 China becomes the world’s largest oil importer China oil demand growth by sector China becomes the world’s largest oil importer by around 2020; air quality policies could lead to a plateau or peak in oil demand, but oil security remains a challenge China passenger car stock Electric Conventional 1 2 3 4 mb/d Cars Trucks Petrochemicals Other 300 400 500 100 200 Million 2016 20402020 2025 2030 2035 20402016
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2017 706 bcm in 2016 Global gas trade LNG ushers in a new global gas order 39% shipped by LNG 1 230 bcm in 2040 59% shipped by LNG
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2017 706 bcm in 2016 Global gas trade LNG ushers in a new global gas order Gas exporters 39% shipped by LNG 1 230 bcm in 2040 59% shipped by LNG Australia Russia & Caspian Middle East Other Africa US & Canada Australia Russia & Caspian Middle East Other AfricaUS & Canada
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2017 706 bcm in 2016 Global gas trade Asia’s growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG, with exports from the US accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market LNG ushers in a new global gas order Gas exportersGas importers 39% shipped by LNG 1 230 bcm in 2040 59% shipped by LNG Australia Russia & Caspian Middle East Other Africa US & Canada Australia Russia & Caspian Middle East Other AfricaUS & Canada Other Other Other Asia China Japan & Korea Japan & Korea China Other Asia Europe Europe
  • 11. © OECD/IEA 2017 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% China leads the push for clean energy technologies China’s share of global investment, 2017-2040 China is the leading global investor in power generation and end-use sectors; its emphasis on clean energy investment is a driver of the global clean energy transition Electric vehicles Energy efficiency Wind Solar PV Nuclear
  • 12. © OECD/IEA 2017 Conclusions  Structural shifts in the economy and the clean energy transition change quantity & quality of energy demand growth; China moves global energy markets – once again  China is set first to become the world‘s largest oil importer, and then the largest oil consumer; future oil security hinges on supply- and demand-side policies  Natural gas helps to replace coal in the energy mix and soon makes China the world’s largest gas importer, with strong implications for global LNG markets  China remains the world’s largest investor in clean energy; its success in delivering on a clean energy transition is critical for its own as well as global environmental goals  As China joined the IEA family in 2015 and partnership grows, the WEO-2017 China Outlook sheds light on China’s energy challenges & opportunities in a global context