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© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy Efficiency Market Report
Joe Ritchie
14 November 2018
IEA
© OECD/IEA 2018
IEA team on the webinar today
Joe Ritchie Edith Bayer
© OECD/IEA 2018
Agenda
• Introduction
• Welcome Remarks
- Samira Sousa, MME (Brazil)
- Santiago Creuheras, SENER (Mexico)
• Presentation
• Questions & Answers
© OECD/IEA 2018
GotoWebinar Housekeeping
Telephone Details for Mexico: 01 800 112 2091 +
Access Code: 651-174-028
Toll-free: 01 800 925 0373 (MX); 0 800 047 4907 (BR)
Access Code: 163-150-099
Questions in English,
Spanish or Portuguese
Question box
Attendee Interface
© OECD/IEA 2018
© OECD/IEA 2018
Welcome Remarks
Santiago CreuherasSamira Sousa
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy Efficiency 2018
• Global trends and outlooks
- Energy intensity and efficiency trends
- Introduction to efficient world scenario
- Policy progress and trends
- IEA Efficient World Strategy
• Sector chapters
- Transport, Buildings and Industry
• Investment finance and business models
• Energy Efficiency in Emerging Economies
- Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa
• Available for free from www.iea.org/efficiency2018
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency trends and
outlook
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global energy demand rose by nearly 2% in 2017, the fastest rise this decade, driven by economic
growth and changes in consumer behaviour.
Change in global primary energy demand, 2011-17
2017 saw a resurgence in global demand growth
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Adapted from IEA (forthcoming), World Energy Outlook 2018; IEA (2018c) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2018 (database)
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global primary energy intensity improved in 2017, but at the slowest rate this decade.
The rate of global improvement would have been worse if not for continuing gains in China.
Annual change in global primary energy intensity, 2011-17
Global energy intensity is improving at a slower rate
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Global Global without China
Source: Adapted from IEA (forthcoming), World Energy Outlook 2018; IEA (2018c) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2018 (database)
© OECD/IEA 2018
Why is energy use on the rise?
Global energy efficiency is improving, but its impact is being overwhelmed by factors that create more
demand for energy.
Decomposition of final energy use in the world’s major economies
Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 energy use More buildings
and appliances
Less efficient
transport patterns
Increased activity Shifts in economic
activity
Improvements in
energy efficiency
2017 energy use
EJ
© OECD/IEA 2018
The impacts of energy efficiency are already significant
Energy efficiency improvements since 2000 prevented 12% more energy use and emissions in 2017.
Global final energy use and emissions with and without energy efficiency improvements, 2000-17
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Index(2000=100)
Energy use
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Emissions
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Energy use
GDP
Without
energy
efficiency
Actual
© OECD/IEA 2018
Industry has been the largest contributor to energy savings, particularly in major emerging economies.
Buildings have made a larger contribution in advanced economies, with transport smallest
Sectoral contributions to energy savings from improvements in energy efficiency
What sectors are contributing to efficiency gains?
Notes: IEA includes Mexico, other major economies are China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina.
Major emerging economies are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa
51%
38%
11%
IEA and other
major economies
Industry
Buildings
Transport
63%
29%
8%
Major emerging
economies
© OECD/IEA 2018
Improvements in energy efficiency in Brazil since 2000 saved 5% more energy use in 2017.
The industry and service sectors contributed almost 60% of the total energy use saved.
Decomposition of Brazilian final energy use, 2000-17 (left) and sectoral contribution to efficiency gains (right)
Energy efficiency trends in Brazil
0
3
5
8
10
2000 energy
use
Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 energy
use
EJ
- 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
PJ Freight
transport
Residential
Buildings
Passenger
transport
Industry and
services
Note: “Energy use” covers the residential, industry and services, passenger and freight transport sectors. It excludes non-energy use (i.e. feedstocks) and energy supply.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency gains in Mexico since 2000 prevented 3% more energy use in 2017.
Over 59% of these savings have been achieved in the residential sector.
Decomposition of Mexican final energy use, 2000-17 (left) and sectoral contribution to efficiency gains (right)
Mexican energy efficiency trends
0
2
3
5
6
2000 energy
use
Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 energy
use
EJ
0
50
100
150
200
250
PJ Industry and
services
Passenger
transport
Residential
Buildings
Freight
transport
© OECD/IEA 2018
What does a more efficient world look like?
• The world is missing opportunities to improve energy efficiency, policy is not
delivering the full potential gains that are available with current technology.
• What is possible with greater efforts on energy efficiency? The IEA’s new Efficient
World Scenario answers the question:
What would happen by 2040 if countries realised all the economically viable
energy efficiency potential that is available today?
The Economy The Energy System The Environment
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy productivity can more than double, from USD 9000 to USD 18 000 of GDP for every tonne of oil
equivalent of energy demand.
Doubling global GDP for a marginal increase in energy demand
Now 2040
GDP
Energy
demand
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy intensity has been falling in all countries to varying degrees.
But the EWS shows that average intensity across all six economies could decline by over 50%.
Primary energy intensity in the six major emerging economies
Emerging economies could become even less energy-intensive
0
3
5
8
10
13
World Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa
2000 2016 EWS 2040
Primaryenergyintensity
(GJ/thousandUSDPPP)
© OECD/IEA 2018
There is significant cost-effective savings potential in every sector
Only one third of the potential cumulative energy savings from efficiency gains by 2040 are realised in the NPS.
The majority of potential across all sectors is realised in the EWS.
Cumulative energy savings in NPS and additional potential in the EWS to 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Industry Transport Buildings
EJ
Efficient World Scenario
New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency can deliver immediate environmental benefits
The EWS results in an early emissions peak and around 40% of the abatement required by 2040 to be in
line with Paris targets. Energy efficiency is indispensable to achieving global climate targets.
Greenhouse emissions in the NPS and EWS, 2000-40 (left) and air pollutant emissions in the EWS, 2015-40 (right)
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt CO2-eq
Greenhouse gas emissions
Historic Baseline Efficient World Scenario
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
2015 2040
Mt
Air pollutant emissions
PM2.5
NOx
SO2
© OECD/IEA 2018
The Efficient World Scenario shows that Brazil could avoid 2EJ of additional energy use in 2040.
Emissions would remain the same in 2040 as current levels.
Total final consumption and emissions in the NPS and EWS for Brazil, 2012-40
Outlook for energy efficiency in Brazil
8
10
11
13
14
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
EJ
8
10
11
13
14
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
EJ
Transport Buildings Industry Historical NPS EWS
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
Gt CO2-eq
Thousands
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
Gt CO2-eq
Thousands
© OECD/IEA 2018
In the Efficient World Scenario, Mexico could avoid 1 EJ of additional final energy use in 2040.
Emissions could also fall to be nearly 8% less than current levels.
Total final energy use and emissions in the NPS and EWS for Mexico, 2012-40
Outlook for energy efficiency in Mexico
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
EJ
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
EJ
Transport Buildings Industry Historical NPS EWS
0.40
0.43
0.45
0.48
0.50
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
Gt CO2-eq
Thousands
0.40
0.43
0.45
0.48
0.50
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
Gt CO2-eq
Thousands
© OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency bring benefits to all levels of the economy
The Efficient World Scenario also fully delivers the energy efficiency target (Target 7.3) of the UN
Sustainable Development Goals
USD 700 billion
Avoided energy
imports in the EU,
China and India
USD 600 billion
Avoided energy
expenditure in
industry
USD 550 billion
Avoided household
energy spending
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency policy and
investment
© OECD/IEA 2018
The majority of global energy use is not covered by mandatory energy efficiency policy.
Coverage has grown in Mexico due to new codes and standards, Brazil is lower due to lack of transport standards
Share of final energy use covered by mandatory policies, by sector
Policy coverage varies across sectors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Industry Transport Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Total
% energy use
World Mexico Brazil
© OECD/IEA 2018
Strength is an important indicator of the impact that mandatory policies could have.
In the past two years, policies have been strengthened at a slower rate than preceding years.
Annual changes in mandatory policy strength, 2000-17
Coverage is just the first part of the policy story
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%changeinpolicystrength
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency policy progress steadily after 2006 following China’s 11th five year plan.
But progress has slowed, reflecting slow implementation of new or strengthened policies.
Annual additions to IEA’s Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI), 2000-17
Combining policy coverage and strength reveals progress
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AnnualeditionstoIEAEPPI
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global energy efficiency investment grew marginally in 2017, up by 3% to USD 236 billion.
The buildings sector continues to dominate, reaching USD 140 billion (59%) of the global total in 2017.
Energy efficiency investment by sector and region
Energy efficiency investment growth slowed in 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2016 2017
USDbillions
By region
Other
North
America
Europe
China
29%
11%
6%
14%
7%
8%
14%
11%
59%
15%
26%
By sector Envelope
HVAC and controls
Appliances
Lighting
Energy intensive industry
Other industry
Premium paid for
energy efficient vehicle
Freight vehicles
USD 236 billion
Buildings
Transport
Industry
© OECD/IEA 2018
But investment levels need to rise
Annual energy efficiency investment must double to 2025 and then double again to 2040.
Policy will need to facilitate finance and business model innovation to stimulate this investment.
Annual energy efficiency investment in 2017 and in the Efficient World Scenario
0
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
Current Average annual 2017-25 Average annual 2026-40
USD (2017) billions
2017 Efficient World Scenario (EWS)
© OECD/IEA 2018
Transport energy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2018
Historic rates of efficiency improvement within transport are highly variable.
Car and truck energy efficiency could improve at a much faster rate.
Historical efficiency improvements and future projections for transport (left), Energy savings potential for road transport (right)
Transport can accelerate towards a more efficient world
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40
Passenger light-
duty vehicles
Road freight Aviation International
Shipping
Averageannualefficiencyimprovement
Efficient World Scenario Historical
Cars and vans
52%
Trucks
42%
Buses
4%
2 and 3 wheelers
2%
© OECD/IEA 2018
Transport policy coverage is highest in countries where fuel economy standards have been in place for
an extended period (US, China, Japan). There is room for growth in emerging markets.
Mandatory policy coverage of transport energy use for select countries, 2017
Transport policy reflects the varying presence of standards
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
% of transport energy use
2000
2005
2010
2015
2017
© OECD/IEA 2018
Implementing the best in class fuel economy standards would have avoided 2.2 mb/day of oil use.
Without any change in policy settings, passenger car energy use could increase by over 4 mb/day.
Historical and future change in global passenger car energy use without standards and if best-in-class fuel economy standards
had been implemented, 2000-17 and 2017-40
What is the benefit of fuel economy standards
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Without standards Implementing best-in-class
standards
Mboe/d
Implementing no new
policies (CPS)
EWS
2000-17 2017-40
© OECD/IEA 2018
New ambition levels required for transport
What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions
• Improve coverage and strength of
transport policies for cars and trucks
and non-road modes.
• Provide incentives to support uptake
and sustainable use of efficient
vehicles.
• Information to support efficient
vehicle uptake and mode shift.
• Energy demand could stay flat,
despite doubling activity levels.
• Passenger cars and trucks offer
two-thirds of potential savings.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Buildings energy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency improvement has been variable, due mainly to increased appliance ownership.
Gains could be made across all end-uses, with space and water heating and cooling covering 60%
Change in energy intensity, 2000-40 (left) and contribution to total energy savings in the EWS to 2040 (right)
Efficiency can improve across all building end-uses
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60% 2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
Space
heating
Space
cooling
Water
heating
Lighting Cooking Appliances
Energy intensity improvement (%)
Historic Efficient World Scenario
26%
22%
26%
5%
9%
12%
24 EJ
Space heating Water heating
Cooking Lighting
Appliances Space cooling
© OECD/IEA 2018
Less than 40% of building energy use is covered by mandatory energy efficiency policy. Although
coverage is high for lighting and space cooling
Energy efficiency policy coverage of buildings end-uses, 2000-17
Policy coverage is spread across building end-uses
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Policy coverage
Lighting
Space cooling
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
ALL BUILDINGS
Cooking
© OECD/IEA 2018
Space cooling energy use has grown rapidly, as a result of warming climates and growing populations.
Forces pushing space cooling energy demand will continue to grow, but efficiency can limit the impact.
Buildings cooling energy use decomposition, global, 2000-40
Space cooling energy use will grow rapidly
0
4
8
12
16
20
2000 Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 Activity Structure Efficiency 2040
Historical Efficient World Scenario
Cooling final energy (EJ)
© OECD/IEA 2018
Buildings could be 40% more efficient than today
What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions
• Comprehensive efficiency policies,
targeting both new and existing
building stock and appliances.
• Incentives to encourage consumers to
adopt high efficiency appliances and
undertake deep energy retrofits.
• Improved quality and availability of
energy performance information and
tools.
• Building space could increase by
60% for no additional energy use.
• Space heating, cooling and water
heating offer 60% of savings.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Industrial energy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency improvements are possible across all sub-sectors.
Light industry (e.g. food, beverage and textile manufacturing) represent the bulk (70%) of savings.
Percentage improvement in energy intensity by industry sub-sector (left) contribution to total energy savings in 2040 (right)
Efficiency can improve across all industry sub-sectors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
Iron and steel Chemical and
petrochemical
Cement Paper, pulp
and print
Aluminium Other
industries
%improvementinenergyintensity
Historic Efficient World Scenario
14%
9%
2%5%
1%
70%
Iron and steel Chemicals
Cement Pulp and paper
Aluminium Other industries
© OECD/IEA 2018
Industrial energy efficiency policy coverage grew rapidly following policies in China.
China, Japan and India, lead on policy coverage due to strong mandatory policies
Industrial energy use covered by mandatory energy efficiency policies, globally, 2000-17 (left) and by country in 2017 (right)
Industrial energy efficiency policy coverage is slowing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
%ofindustrialenergyusecovered
Global
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%ofindustrialenergyusecovered
Country in 2017
China's top 1 000
Program introduced
China's top 10 000
Program introduced
© OECD/IEA 2018
MEPS are a common policy tool, but slow stock turnover has not seen policy reach its potential.
Coverage is highest in North America due to early implementation of policy (i.e. before 2000).
Policy coverage and potential for electric motors (left) and coverage and increase in policy strength since 2000 (right)
MEPS for electric motors is a common policy tool
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Electricmotorsenergyusecovered
Global
Actual coverage Coverage potential
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Electricmotorsenergyusecovered
Country/region
Increase in policy strength since 2000 (right axis)
© OECD/IEA 2018
There were over 23 000 ISO 50001 certifications in 2017, a slow down in the rate of growth.
Matching certifications for other management standards will depend on take-up by China.
ISO 50001 certifications 2011-17 (left) and certification progress compared with other management standards (right)
ISO 50001 certifications are slowing
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of certifications
Germany Other Europe Asia and Pacific
North America Other
0
30 000
60 000
90 000
120 000
150 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Numberofcertifications
Years after introduction of standard
ISO 14001 ISO 9001 ISO 50001
© OECD/IEA 2018
Metals recycling is 60 to 90% less energy-intensive than producing metals from mineral ore in primary
production processes.
Energy intensity of primary and recycled metal production of steel, aluminium and copper
Metals recycling will be key to realising efficiency gains
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Blast furnace -
basic oxygen
furnace
Direct reduced
iron - electric
arc furnace
Scrap based
electric arc
furnace
Primary Recycled Primary Recycled from
scrap
Secondary
direct melt
Iron and steel Aluminium Copper
GJ/tonne produced
© OECD/IEA 2018
Targeting efficiency beyond the largest industry sectors
What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions
• Expanded and strengthened standards
for key industrial equipment, including
electric heat pumps and motors.
• Incentives to encourage the adoption
of energy management systems.
• Mechanisms such as industry networks,
training and case studies to enhance
awareness and capacity.
• Value-added per unit of energy
could double.
• Less energy-intensive industry
offers 70% of potential savings.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Concluding remarks
• The IEA EWS shows a 2040 world with double GDP, 20% more people and 60% more
building space, with lower emissions than today
• Efficiency can reduce air pollution, imports and consumer bills, and EWS maps out the
path to delivering the UN SDG on energy efficiency
• The efficiency opportunities are cost-effective and use only technology available
today, but require a significant step up in policy action
• Investments need to double now and double again after 2025, but these investments
will payback threefold on energy savings alone
• There are good examples today of all the policies required for tomorrow. These form
the basis for increased ambition and impact
• IEA will work with governments providing analysis, policy guidance, exchange and
capacity building, working towards an efficient world
© OECD/IEA 2018
Download for free at:
www.iea.org/efficiency2018
#energyefficientworld
© OECD/IEA 2018
In the Efficient World Scenario, energy intensity could improve by around 3% per year, a step-up from
current levels, resulting in minimal increases in energy demand, despite the global economy doubling.
Global primary energy demand, GDP and intensity, historically and in the EWS, 2000-40
Energy intensity improvements can accelerate in future
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Index (2000=100)
Primary energy demand GDP Energy intensity
Primary energy demand (EWS) GDP (EWS) Energy intensity (EWS)
© OECD/IEA 2018
The 6 economies account for one-third of global primary energy demand.
In the EWS demand rises 24%, the six countries are nearly 40% of global energy demand in 2040.
Primary energy demand, globally and for the six major emerging economies in the Efficient World Scenario, 2000-40
Energy demand in emerging economies is growing
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0
250
500
750
2000 2005 2010 2016 2025 2030 2035 2040
Major emerging
economies
World
China and India
share in emerging
economies
Efficient World Scenario
Totalprimaryenergydemand(EJ)
%ofmajoremergingeconomiesprimary
energydemand
The six major emerging economies are Brazil, the People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa
© OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency gains since 2000 avoided the need for over 11 EJ or 20% more fossil fuel imports in 2017.
Oil import savings in IEA countries were worth over USD 30 billion.
Reduction in fossil energy imports in IEA countries and other major economies due to efficiency improvements since 2000
Energy efficiency enhances energy security
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EJ
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
Note: Countries covered are IEA countries (including Mexico) plus China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina.
© OECD/IEA 2018
The EU, China and India, could avoid nearly USD 700 billion in fossil fuel imports by 2040.
Avoided imports (left) and reduction in fossil-fuel net-import bills (right) in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the New
Policies Scenario in 2040
Security will be further enhanced in major importing regions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
European Union China India
USD(2016)billions
Avoided expenditure
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Coal Oil Gas
%reductioninfuelimports
Avoided imports
European Union China India
© OECD/IEA 2018
China and Japan are global leaders in terms of energy efficiency policy progress. Reflecting the large
number of appliance and equipment standards and mandatory industry policies.
Efficiency Policy Progress Index in selected countries and globally by period
Policy progress varies across countries
0
3
6
9
12
15
2017
2016
2000-15
© OECD/IEA 2018
Transport activity is rising and behaviours are shifting to less efficient practices.
Energy efficiency improvements have prevented energy use equivalent to 120 million cars.
Decomposition of passenger transport final energy use, 2000-17
Passenger transport efficiency is being overwhelmed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 energy use Activity Inter-mode shift Vehicle type Occupancy Efficiency 2017 energy use
EJ
Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa.
© OECD/IEA 2018
The absence of fuel economy standards for trucks until recently has meant that efficiency has made
little impact on energy use in freight transport.
Decomposition of freight transport final energy use, 2000-17
Freight transport energy efficiency has shown little progress
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 energy use Activity Inter-mode shift Efficiency Vehicle Type 2017 energy use
EJ
Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. US freight transport excluded due to changes in historical data
© OECD/IEA 2018
Growth in building sector energy use is linked to increasing floor space and appliance ownership.
Space heating is driving savings across both all building types.
Decomposition of buildings global final energy use, 2000-17 (left) and end-use contribution to efficiency savings (right)
Buildings sector energy use is continuing to rise
0
40
80
120
160
2000 Activity Structure Efficiency 2017
EJ
0
2
4
6
8
Residential Non-Residential
EJ
Appliances
Cooking
Lighting
Water heating
Space cooling
Space heating
Sources: Adapted from IEA (2018a), Energy Efficiency Indicators 2018 (database) and IEA Energy Technology Perspectives Buildings model (www.iea.org/etp/etpmodel/buildings/).
© OECD/IEA 2018
Shifting activity and efficiency are reducing offset over 50% of the impact from rising activity.
Contributions to efficiency gains were greatest in China, North America and energy-intensive industry.
Decomposition of energy use in the industry and service sectors (left) and contribution to efficiency savings (right) in IEA
countries and other major economies, 2000-17
Efficiency and structural change are both apparent in industry
0
50
100
150
200
2000 energy
use
Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 energy
use
EJ
0
7
14
21
28
EJ
South America
Russia
Asia Pacific
Europe
North America
China
Notes: Countries covered are IEA countries plus Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Mandatory energy efficiency policies have pushed the performance of air conditioners higher, but can
be strengthened to push levels towards best available technology.
Energy efficiency performance for small cooling equipment by country, 2018
The performance of air conditioners can be pushed higher
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
SIN AUS CHN IDN KOR BRA JPN USA EUR MEX THA ZAF
Peak efficiency (W/W)
© OECD/IEA 2018
The value of the global ESCO market grew by 8% to USD 28.6 billion in 2017. China’s ESCO market
continues to underpin the global market, growing 11% to nearly USD 17 billion in 2017.
ESCO revenue by region, 2017
The global ESCO market continues to grow
7.6
3.0
16.8
1.5
United States
European Union
China
Other
USD 28.6
billion
© OECD/IEA 2018
ESCO activity varies between industry and buildings, with transport projects still negligible.
The split between public and private sector customers also varies, depending on regulation.
ESCO market activity by country and sector
ESCO activity varies across regions
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
End-use sector
Non-residential buildings Residential buildings Industry
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Public or private sector
Private Public

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IEA Webinar: Energy Efficiency Market Report 2018

  • 1. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy Efficiency Market Report Joe Ritchie 14 November 2018 IEA
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2018 IEA team on the webinar today Joe Ritchie Edith Bayer
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2018 Agenda • Introduction • Welcome Remarks - Samira Sousa, MME (Brazil) - Santiago Creuheras, SENER (Mexico) • Presentation • Questions & Answers
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2018 GotoWebinar Housekeeping Telephone Details for Mexico: 01 800 112 2091 + Access Code: 651-174-028 Toll-free: 01 800 925 0373 (MX); 0 800 047 4907 (BR) Access Code: 163-150-099 Questions in English, Spanish or Portuguese Question box Attendee Interface
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2018 Welcome Remarks Santiago CreuherasSamira Sousa
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy Efficiency 2018 • Global trends and outlooks - Energy intensity and efficiency trends - Introduction to efficient world scenario - Policy progress and trends - IEA Efficient World Strategy • Sector chapters - Transport, Buildings and Industry • Investment finance and business models • Energy Efficiency in Emerging Economies - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa • Available for free from www.iea.org/efficiency2018
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy efficiency trends and outlook
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global energy demand rose by nearly 2% in 2017, the fastest rise this decade, driven by economic growth and changes in consumer behaviour. Change in global primary energy demand, 2011-17 2017 saw a resurgence in global demand growth 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Adapted from IEA (forthcoming), World Energy Outlook 2018; IEA (2018c) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2018 (database)
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global primary energy intensity improved in 2017, but at the slowest rate this decade. The rate of global improvement would have been worse if not for continuing gains in China. Annual change in global primary energy intensity, 2011-17 Global energy intensity is improving at a slower rate -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global Global without China Source: Adapted from IEA (forthcoming), World Energy Outlook 2018; IEA (2018c) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2018 (database)
  • 11. © OECD/IEA 2018 Why is energy use on the rise? Global energy efficiency is improving, but its impact is being overwhelmed by factors that create more demand for energy. Decomposition of final energy use in the world’s major economies Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 energy use More buildings and appliances Less efficient transport patterns Increased activity Shifts in economic activity Improvements in energy efficiency 2017 energy use EJ
  • 12. © OECD/IEA 2018 The impacts of energy efficiency are already significant Energy efficiency improvements since 2000 prevented 12% more energy use and emissions in 2017. Global final energy use and emissions with and without energy efficiency improvements, 2000-17 100 120 140 160 180 200 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017 Index(2000=100) Energy use 100 120 140 160 180 200 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017 Emissions 100 120 140 160 180 200 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017 Energy use GDP Without energy efficiency Actual
  • 13. © OECD/IEA 2018 Industry has been the largest contributor to energy savings, particularly in major emerging economies. Buildings have made a larger contribution in advanced economies, with transport smallest Sectoral contributions to energy savings from improvements in energy efficiency What sectors are contributing to efficiency gains? Notes: IEA includes Mexico, other major economies are China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina. Major emerging economies are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa 51% 38% 11% IEA and other major economies Industry Buildings Transport 63% 29% 8% Major emerging economies
  • 14. © OECD/IEA 2018 Improvements in energy efficiency in Brazil since 2000 saved 5% more energy use in 2017. The industry and service sectors contributed almost 60% of the total energy use saved. Decomposition of Brazilian final energy use, 2000-17 (left) and sectoral contribution to efficiency gains (right) Energy efficiency trends in Brazil 0 3 5 8 10 2000 energy use Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 energy use EJ - 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 PJ Freight transport Residential Buildings Passenger transport Industry and services Note: “Energy use” covers the residential, industry and services, passenger and freight transport sectors. It excludes non-energy use (i.e. feedstocks) and energy supply.
  • 15. © OECD/IEA 2018 Efficiency gains in Mexico since 2000 prevented 3% more energy use in 2017. Over 59% of these savings have been achieved in the residential sector. Decomposition of Mexican final energy use, 2000-17 (left) and sectoral contribution to efficiency gains (right) Mexican energy efficiency trends 0 2 3 5 6 2000 energy use Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 energy use EJ 0 50 100 150 200 250 PJ Industry and services Passenger transport Residential Buildings Freight transport
  • 16. © OECD/IEA 2018 What does a more efficient world look like? • The world is missing opportunities to improve energy efficiency, policy is not delivering the full potential gains that are available with current technology. • What is possible with greater efforts on energy efficiency? The IEA’s new Efficient World Scenario answers the question: What would happen by 2040 if countries realised all the economically viable energy efficiency potential that is available today? The Economy The Energy System The Environment
  • 17. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy productivity can more than double, from USD 9000 to USD 18 000 of GDP for every tonne of oil equivalent of energy demand. Doubling global GDP for a marginal increase in energy demand Now 2040 GDP Energy demand
  • 18. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy intensity has been falling in all countries to varying degrees. But the EWS shows that average intensity across all six economies could decline by over 50%. Primary energy intensity in the six major emerging economies Emerging economies could become even less energy-intensive 0 3 5 8 10 13 World Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa 2000 2016 EWS 2040 Primaryenergyintensity (GJ/thousandUSDPPP)
  • 19. © OECD/IEA 2018 There is significant cost-effective savings potential in every sector Only one third of the potential cumulative energy savings from efficiency gains by 2040 are realised in the NPS. The majority of potential across all sectors is realised in the EWS. Cumulative energy savings in NPS and additional potential in the EWS to 2040 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Industry Transport Buildings EJ Efficient World Scenario New Policies Scenario
  • 20. © OECD/IEA 2018 Efficiency can deliver immediate environmental benefits The EWS results in an early emissions peak and around 40% of the abatement required by 2040 to be in line with Paris targets. Energy efficiency is indispensable to achieving global climate targets. Greenhouse emissions in the NPS and EWS, 2000-40 (left) and air pollutant emissions in the EWS, 2015-40 (right) 20 25 30 35 40 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Gt CO2-eq Greenhouse gas emissions Historic Baseline Efficient World Scenario 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 2015 2040 Mt Air pollutant emissions PM2.5 NOx SO2
  • 21. © OECD/IEA 2018 The Efficient World Scenario shows that Brazil could avoid 2EJ of additional energy use in 2040. Emissions would remain the same in 2040 as current levels. Total final consumption and emissions in the NPS and EWS for Brazil, 2012-40 Outlook for energy efficiency in Brazil 8 10 11 13 14 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 EJ 8 10 11 13 14 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 EJ Transport Buildings Industry Historical NPS EWS 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Gt CO2-eq Thousands 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Gt CO2-eq Thousands
  • 22. © OECD/IEA 2018 In the Efficient World Scenario, Mexico could avoid 1 EJ of additional final energy use in 2040. Emissions could also fall to be nearly 8% less than current levels. Total final energy use and emissions in the NPS and EWS for Mexico, 2012-40 Outlook for energy efficiency in Mexico 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 EJ 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 EJ Transport Buildings Industry Historical NPS EWS 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.48 0.50 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Gt CO2-eq Thousands 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.48 0.50 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Gt CO2-eq Thousands
  • 23. © OECD/IEA 2018 Efficiency bring benefits to all levels of the economy The Efficient World Scenario also fully delivers the energy efficiency target (Target 7.3) of the UN Sustainable Development Goals USD 700 billion Avoided energy imports in the EU, China and India USD 600 billion Avoided energy expenditure in industry USD 550 billion Avoided household energy spending
  • 24. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy efficiency policy and investment
  • 25. © OECD/IEA 2018 The majority of global energy use is not covered by mandatory energy efficiency policy. Coverage has grown in Mexico due to new codes and standards, Brazil is lower due to lack of transport standards Share of final energy use covered by mandatory policies, by sector Policy coverage varies across sectors 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Industry Transport Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Total % energy use World Mexico Brazil
  • 26. © OECD/IEA 2018 Strength is an important indicator of the impact that mandatory policies could have. In the past two years, policies have been strengthened at a slower rate than preceding years. Annual changes in mandatory policy strength, 2000-17 Coverage is just the first part of the policy story 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 %changeinpolicystrength
  • 27. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy efficiency policy progress steadily after 2006 following China’s 11th five year plan. But progress has slowed, reflecting slow implementation of new or strengthened policies. Annual additions to IEA’s Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI), 2000-17 Combining policy coverage and strength reveals progress 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 AnnualeditionstoIEAEPPI
  • 28. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global energy efficiency investment grew marginally in 2017, up by 3% to USD 236 billion. The buildings sector continues to dominate, reaching USD 140 billion (59%) of the global total in 2017. Energy efficiency investment by sector and region Energy efficiency investment growth slowed in 2017 0 50 100 150 200 250 2014 2015 2016 2017 USDbillions By region Other North America Europe China 29% 11% 6% 14% 7% 8% 14% 11% 59% 15% 26% By sector Envelope HVAC and controls Appliances Lighting Energy intensive industry Other industry Premium paid for energy efficient vehicle Freight vehicles USD 236 billion Buildings Transport Industry
  • 29. © OECD/IEA 2018 But investment levels need to rise Annual energy efficiency investment must double to 2025 and then double again to 2040. Policy will need to facilitate finance and business model innovation to stimulate this investment. Annual energy efficiency investment in 2017 and in the Efficient World Scenario 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 Current Average annual 2017-25 Average annual 2026-40 USD (2017) billions 2017 Efficient World Scenario (EWS)
  • 30. © OECD/IEA 2018 Transport energy efficiency
  • 31. © OECD/IEA 2018 Historic rates of efficiency improvement within transport are highly variable. Car and truck energy efficiency could improve at a much faster rate. Historical efficiency improvements and future projections for transport (left), Energy savings potential for road transport (right) Transport can accelerate towards a more efficient world 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40 Passenger light- duty vehicles Road freight Aviation International Shipping Averageannualefficiencyimprovement Efficient World Scenario Historical Cars and vans 52% Trucks 42% Buses 4% 2 and 3 wheelers 2%
  • 32. © OECD/IEA 2018 Transport policy coverage is highest in countries where fuel economy standards have been in place for an extended period (US, China, Japan). There is room for growth in emerging markets. Mandatory policy coverage of transport energy use for select countries, 2017 Transport policy reflects the varying presence of standards 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% % of transport energy use 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
  • 33. © OECD/IEA 2018 Implementing the best in class fuel economy standards would have avoided 2.2 mb/day of oil use. Without any change in policy settings, passenger car energy use could increase by over 4 mb/day. Historical and future change in global passenger car energy use without standards and if best-in-class fuel economy standards had been implemented, 2000-17 and 2017-40 What is the benefit of fuel economy standards -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Without standards Implementing best-in-class standards Mboe/d Implementing no new policies (CPS) EWS 2000-17 2017-40
  • 34. © OECD/IEA 2018 New ambition levels required for transport What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions • Improve coverage and strength of transport policies for cars and trucks and non-road modes. • Provide incentives to support uptake and sustainable use of efficient vehicles. • Information to support efficient vehicle uptake and mode shift. • Energy demand could stay flat, despite doubling activity levels. • Passenger cars and trucks offer two-thirds of potential savings.
  • 35. © OECD/IEA 2018 Buildings energy efficiency
  • 36. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy efficiency improvement has been variable, due mainly to increased appliance ownership. Gains could be made across all end-uses, with space and water heating and cooling covering 60% Change in energy intensity, 2000-40 (left) and contribution to total energy savings in the EWS to 2040 (right) Efficiency can improve across all building end-uses -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Energy intensity improvement (%) Historic Efficient World Scenario 26% 22% 26% 5% 9% 12% 24 EJ Space heating Water heating Cooking Lighting Appliances Space cooling
  • 37. © OECD/IEA 2018 Less than 40% of building energy use is covered by mandatory energy efficiency policy. Although coverage is high for lighting and space cooling Energy efficiency policy coverage of buildings end-uses, 2000-17 Policy coverage is spread across building end-uses 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017 Policy coverage Lighting Space cooling Appliances Space heating Water heating ALL BUILDINGS Cooking
  • 38. © OECD/IEA 2018 Space cooling energy use has grown rapidly, as a result of warming climates and growing populations. Forces pushing space cooling energy demand will continue to grow, but efficiency can limit the impact. Buildings cooling energy use decomposition, global, 2000-40 Space cooling energy use will grow rapidly 0 4 8 12 16 20 2000 Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 Activity Structure Efficiency 2040 Historical Efficient World Scenario Cooling final energy (EJ)
  • 39. © OECD/IEA 2018 Buildings could be 40% more efficient than today What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions • Comprehensive efficiency policies, targeting both new and existing building stock and appliances. • Incentives to encourage consumers to adopt high efficiency appliances and undertake deep energy retrofits. • Improved quality and availability of energy performance information and tools. • Building space could increase by 60% for no additional energy use. • Space heating, cooling and water heating offer 60% of savings.
  • 40. © OECD/IEA 2018 Industrial energy efficiency
  • 41. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy efficiency improvements are possible across all sub-sectors. Light industry (e.g. food, beverage and textile manufacturing) represent the bulk (70%) of savings. Percentage improvement in energy intensity by industry sub-sector (left) contribution to total energy savings in 2040 (right) Efficiency can improve across all industry sub-sectors 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 2000-17 2018-40 Iron and steel Chemical and petrochemical Cement Paper, pulp and print Aluminium Other industries %improvementinenergyintensity Historic Efficient World Scenario 14% 9% 2%5% 1% 70% Iron and steel Chemicals Cement Pulp and paper Aluminium Other industries
  • 42. © OECD/IEA 2018 Industrial energy efficiency policy coverage grew rapidly following policies in China. China, Japan and India, lead on policy coverage due to strong mandatory policies Industrial energy use covered by mandatory energy efficiency policies, globally, 2000-17 (left) and by country in 2017 (right) Industrial energy efficiency policy coverage is slowing 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 %ofindustrialenergyusecovered Global 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% %ofindustrialenergyusecovered Country in 2017 China's top 1 000 Program introduced China's top 10 000 Program introduced
  • 43. © OECD/IEA 2018 MEPS are a common policy tool, but slow stock turnover has not seen policy reach its potential. Coverage is highest in North America due to early implementation of policy (i.e. before 2000). Policy coverage and potential for electric motors (left) and coverage and increase in policy strength since 2000 (right) MEPS for electric motors is a common policy tool 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Electricmotorsenergyusecovered Global Actual coverage Coverage potential 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Electricmotorsenergyusecovered Country/region Increase in policy strength since 2000 (right axis)
  • 44. © OECD/IEA 2018 There were over 23 000 ISO 50001 certifications in 2017, a slow down in the rate of growth. Matching certifications for other management standards will depend on take-up by China. ISO 50001 certifications 2011-17 (left) and certification progress compared with other management standards (right) ISO 50001 certifications are slowing 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Number of certifications Germany Other Europe Asia and Pacific North America Other 0 30 000 60 000 90 000 120 000 150 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Numberofcertifications Years after introduction of standard ISO 14001 ISO 9001 ISO 50001
  • 45. © OECD/IEA 2018 Metals recycling is 60 to 90% less energy-intensive than producing metals from mineral ore in primary production processes. Energy intensity of primary and recycled metal production of steel, aluminium and copper Metals recycling will be key to realising efficiency gains 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Blast furnace - basic oxygen furnace Direct reduced iron - electric arc furnace Scrap based electric arc furnace Primary Recycled Primary Recycled from scrap Secondary direct melt Iron and steel Aluminium Copper GJ/tonne produced
  • 46. © OECD/IEA 2018 Targeting efficiency beyond the largest industry sectors What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions • Expanded and strengthened standards for key industrial equipment, including electric heat pumps and motors. • Incentives to encourage the adoption of energy management systems. • Mechanisms such as industry networks, training and case studies to enhance awareness and capacity. • Value-added per unit of energy could double. • Less energy-intensive industry offers 70% of potential savings.
  • 47. © OECD/IEA 2018 Concluding remarks • The IEA EWS shows a 2040 world with double GDP, 20% more people and 60% more building space, with lower emissions than today • Efficiency can reduce air pollution, imports and consumer bills, and EWS maps out the path to delivering the UN SDG on energy efficiency • The efficiency opportunities are cost-effective and use only technology available today, but require a significant step up in policy action • Investments need to double now and double again after 2025, but these investments will payback threefold on energy savings alone • There are good examples today of all the policies required for tomorrow. These form the basis for increased ambition and impact • IEA will work with governments providing analysis, policy guidance, exchange and capacity building, working towards an efficient world
  • 48. © OECD/IEA 2018 Download for free at: www.iea.org/efficiency2018 #energyefficientworld
  • 49. © OECD/IEA 2018 In the Efficient World Scenario, energy intensity could improve by around 3% per year, a step-up from current levels, resulting in minimal increases in energy demand, despite the global economy doubling. Global primary energy demand, GDP and intensity, historically and in the EWS, 2000-40 Energy intensity improvements can accelerate in future 0 100 200 300 400 500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Index (2000=100) Primary energy demand GDP Energy intensity Primary energy demand (EWS) GDP (EWS) Energy intensity (EWS)
  • 50. © OECD/IEA 2018 The 6 economies account for one-third of global primary energy demand. In the EWS demand rises 24%, the six countries are nearly 40% of global energy demand in 2040. Primary energy demand, globally and for the six major emerging economies in the Efficient World Scenario, 2000-40 Energy demand in emerging economies is growing 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 250 500 750 2000 2005 2010 2016 2025 2030 2035 2040 Major emerging economies World China and India share in emerging economies Efficient World Scenario Totalprimaryenergydemand(EJ) %ofmajoremergingeconomiesprimary energydemand The six major emerging economies are Brazil, the People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa
  • 51. © OECD/IEA 2018 Efficiency gains since 2000 avoided the need for over 11 EJ or 20% more fossil fuel imports in 2017. Oil import savings in IEA countries were worth over USD 30 billion. Reduction in fossil energy imports in IEA countries and other major economies due to efficiency improvements since 2000 Energy efficiency enhances energy security 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EJ Coal Natural gas Oil Note: Countries covered are IEA countries (including Mexico) plus China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina.
  • 52. © OECD/IEA 2018 The EU, China and India, could avoid nearly USD 700 billion in fossil fuel imports by 2040. Avoided imports (left) and reduction in fossil-fuel net-import bills (right) in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario in 2040 Security will be further enhanced in major importing regions 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 European Union China India USD(2016)billions Avoided expenditure 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Coal Oil Gas %reductioninfuelimports Avoided imports European Union China India
  • 53. © OECD/IEA 2018 China and Japan are global leaders in terms of energy efficiency policy progress. Reflecting the large number of appliance and equipment standards and mandatory industry policies. Efficiency Policy Progress Index in selected countries and globally by period Policy progress varies across countries 0 3 6 9 12 15 2017 2016 2000-15
  • 54. © OECD/IEA 2018 Transport activity is rising and behaviours are shifting to less efficient practices. Energy efficiency improvements have prevented energy use equivalent to 120 million cars. Decomposition of passenger transport final energy use, 2000-17 Passenger transport efficiency is being overwhelmed 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 energy use Activity Inter-mode shift Vehicle type Occupancy Efficiency 2017 energy use EJ Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa.
  • 55. © OECD/IEA 2018 The absence of fuel economy standards for trucks until recently has meant that efficiency has made little impact on energy use in freight transport. Decomposition of freight transport final energy use, 2000-17 Freight transport energy efficiency has shown little progress 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 energy use Activity Inter-mode shift Efficiency Vehicle Type 2017 energy use EJ Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. US freight transport excluded due to changes in historical data
  • 56. © OECD/IEA 2018 Growth in building sector energy use is linked to increasing floor space and appliance ownership. Space heating is driving savings across both all building types. Decomposition of buildings global final energy use, 2000-17 (left) and end-use contribution to efficiency savings (right) Buildings sector energy use is continuing to rise 0 40 80 120 160 2000 Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 EJ 0 2 4 6 8 Residential Non-Residential EJ Appliances Cooking Lighting Water heating Space cooling Space heating Sources: Adapted from IEA (2018a), Energy Efficiency Indicators 2018 (database) and IEA Energy Technology Perspectives Buildings model (www.iea.org/etp/etpmodel/buildings/).
  • 57. © OECD/IEA 2018 Shifting activity and efficiency are reducing offset over 50% of the impact from rising activity. Contributions to efficiency gains were greatest in China, North America and energy-intensive industry. Decomposition of energy use in the industry and service sectors (left) and contribution to efficiency savings (right) in IEA countries and other major economies, 2000-17 Efficiency and structural change are both apparent in industry 0 50 100 150 200 2000 energy use Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 energy use EJ 0 7 14 21 28 EJ South America Russia Asia Pacific Europe North America China Notes: Countries covered are IEA countries plus Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa.
  • 58. © OECD/IEA 2018 Mandatory energy efficiency policies have pushed the performance of air conditioners higher, but can be strengthened to push levels towards best available technology. Energy efficiency performance for small cooling equipment by country, 2018 The performance of air conditioners can be pushed higher 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 SIN AUS CHN IDN KOR BRA JPN USA EUR MEX THA ZAF Peak efficiency (W/W)
  • 59. © OECD/IEA 2018 The value of the global ESCO market grew by 8% to USD 28.6 billion in 2017. China’s ESCO market continues to underpin the global market, growing 11% to nearly USD 17 billion in 2017. ESCO revenue by region, 2017 The global ESCO market continues to grow 7.6 3.0 16.8 1.5 United States European Union China Other USD 28.6 billion
  • 60. © OECD/IEA 2018 ESCO activity varies between industry and buildings, with transport projects still negligible. The split between public and private sector customers also varies, depending on regulation. ESCO market activity by country and sector ESCO activity varies across regions 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% End-use sector Non-residential buildings Residential buildings Industry 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Public or private sector Private Public