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Mexican Dialogues on the Future of
Energy: Energy Efficient Future
Dr Fatih Birol – Executive Director, International Energy Agency
Mexico, 12 September 2017
© IEA 2017
The global energy context today
 Global energy markets are changing rapidly
North America entering a new age of energy prosperity
Renewables keep breaking records, underpinned by policy support & cost reductions
Electric car sales are growing exponentially
 Energy efficiency is making a growing contribution to all core energy policy
goals, including economic growth, access, security & decarbonisation
 But strong government policies will be essential to deliver energy
efficiency's full potential
© IEA 2017
Emerging economies dominate future energy demand growth
Significant growth in energy demand in emerging economies requires a renewed focus on energy
efficiency to provide least cost pathways
Mtoe
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
European
Union
United
States
Japan Latin
America
Middle
East
Southeast
Asia
Africa China India
Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014 to 2040
© IEA 2017
Efficiency & renewables key to global climate change mitigation
Supply-side investment needs to be re-directed, not increased; demand-side investment for energy
efficiency, electrification & renewables needs to ramp up significantly
Gt
18
22
26
30
34
38
2010 2020 2030 2040
Central Scenario
Efficiency
Renewables
CCS
Nuclear
Fuel switching
Other
2 °C Scenario
Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Central & 2 °C Scenario by technology
© IEA 2017
Energy intensity is starting to improve more rapidly
More ambitious efficiency standards resulted in bigger declines in global energy intensity in 2014 and
2015 than was experienced over the preceding decade
Global annual energy intensity gains
-1.7%
-2.0%
-2.8%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
2004-13 2014 2015
Changeinglobalenergyintensity
© IEA 2017
Global energy efficiency investment is on the rise
Investment in energy efficiency rose by 9% to USD 231 billion, driven primarily by government policy;
Energy efficiency represented 13% of global energy investment in 2016
Global energy investment in 2016
0
250
500
750
1 000
Electricity Oil, gas & coal Renewables in
transport and heat
Energy efficiency
USD(2016)billion
Networks
Renewable
Thermal
Oil & gas
Coal
-25%
-1%
+9%
-25%
© IEA 2017
Policy progress needs to accelerate
Only 30% of the world's energy consumption is now covered by mandatory standards and regulations
Share of global energy use covered by mandatory efficiency policies, 2015
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
World total
Electric motors
Heavy-duty vehicles
Appliances
Space heating
Light-duty vehicles
Lighting
WORLD TOTAL
© IEA 2017
Petrochemical
Other
Transport
70
75
80
85
90
95
Oildemand(mb/d)Trucks represent a major opportunity for energy efficiency
Trucks were responsible for nearly 40% of the growth in global oil demand since 2000 and are the
fastest growing source; Only four countries have heavy-duty fuel economy standards to date
2000 2015Increase by sector
Trucks
Cars
Other transport
Oil demand growth by sector, 2010-2015
© IEA 2017
CO2 emissions growth in the Reference Scenario, 2015-2050
A modern truck sector is still a long haul away
Without further policy efforts, trucks will account for 40% of the oil demand growth to 2050
and 15% of the increase in global CO2 emissions
Power sector Industry sector
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Trucks
Coal use
Mt
© IEA 2017
Conclusions
 Energy efficiency offers multiple benefits and must be at the center of energy policy making
 Policy delivers, but stronger policy is required: Still 70% of global energy use is outside of any
mandatory efficiency requirements
 An integrated systems approach considering all technology options must be implemented to
accelerate progress
 The IEA is working with partners countries to accelerate energy efficiency uptake
 Training more than 500 policy makers from emerging countries in 2017
 The IEA’s new Global Exchange Platform for Energy Efficiency will be a global resource for best
practice knowledge, analysis and sharing

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Energy Efficient Future

  • 1. Mexican Dialogues on the Future of Energy: Energy Efficient Future Dr Fatih Birol – Executive Director, International Energy Agency Mexico, 12 September 2017
  • 2. © IEA 2017 The global energy context today  Global energy markets are changing rapidly North America entering a new age of energy prosperity Renewables keep breaking records, underpinned by policy support & cost reductions Electric car sales are growing exponentially  Energy efficiency is making a growing contribution to all core energy policy goals, including economic growth, access, security & decarbonisation  But strong government policies will be essential to deliver energy efficiency's full potential
  • 3. © IEA 2017 Emerging economies dominate future energy demand growth Significant growth in energy demand in emerging economies requires a renewed focus on energy efficiency to provide least cost pathways Mtoe -300 0 300 600 900 1 200 European Union United States Japan Latin America Middle East Southeast Asia Africa China India Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014 to 2040
  • 4. © IEA 2017 Efficiency & renewables key to global climate change mitigation Supply-side investment needs to be re-directed, not increased; demand-side investment for energy efficiency, electrification & renewables needs to ramp up significantly Gt 18 22 26 30 34 38 2010 2020 2030 2040 Central Scenario Efficiency Renewables CCS Nuclear Fuel switching Other 2 °C Scenario Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Central & 2 °C Scenario by technology
  • 5. © IEA 2017 Energy intensity is starting to improve more rapidly More ambitious efficiency standards resulted in bigger declines in global energy intensity in 2014 and 2015 than was experienced over the preceding decade Global annual energy intensity gains -1.7% -2.0% -2.8% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 2004-13 2014 2015 Changeinglobalenergyintensity
  • 6. © IEA 2017 Global energy efficiency investment is on the rise Investment in energy efficiency rose by 9% to USD 231 billion, driven primarily by government policy; Energy efficiency represented 13% of global energy investment in 2016 Global energy investment in 2016 0 250 500 750 1 000 Electricity Oil, gas & coal Renewables in transport and heat Energy efficiency USD(2016)billion Networks Renewable Thermal Oil & gas Coal -25% -1% +9% -25%
  • 7. © IEA 2017 Policy progress needs to accelerate Only 30% of the world's energy consumption is now covered by mandatory standards and regulations Share of global energy use covered by mandatory efficiency policies, 2015 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% World total Electric motors Heavy-duty vehicles Appliances Space heating Light-duty vehicles Lighting WORLD TOTAL
  • 8. © IEA 2017 Petrochemical Other Transport 70 75 80 85 90 95 Oildemand(mb/d)Trucks represent a major opportunity for energy efficiency Trucks were responsible for nearly 40% of the growth in global oil demand since 2000 and are the fastest growing source; Only four countries have heavy-duty fuel economy standards to date 2000 2015Increase by sector Trucks Cars Other transport Oil demand growth by sector, 2010-2015
  • 9. © IEA 2017 CO2 emissions growth in the Reference Scenario, 2015-2050 A modern truck sector is still a long haul away Without further policy efforts, trucks will account for 40% of the oil demand growth to 2050 and 15% of the increase in global CO2 emissions Power sector Industry sector 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Trucks Coal use Mt
  • 10. © IEA 2017 Conclusions  Energy efficiency offers multiple benefits and must be at the center of energy policy making  Policy delivers, but stronger policy is required: Still 70% of global energy use is outside of any mandatory efficiency requirements  An integrated systems approach considering all technology options must be implemented to accelerate progress  The IEA is working with partners countries to accelerate energy efficiency uptake  Training more than 500 policy makers from emerging countries in 2017  The IEA’s new Global Exchange Platform for Energy Efficiency will be a global resource for best practice knowledge, analysis and sharing

Editor's Notes

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