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1
Business Potential for Pulses Production in Brazil for the Indian Market
Scope Covered
1. Agro trade in Brazil and India
2. Why India ?
3. Why Pulses ?
4. World, India and Brazil trade on pulses
5. Strategic importance of pulses for the
Indian economy
6. Essays on prices and margins for pulses
7. Evolution and distribution of pulses
production in Brazil
8. Why lentil today and pigeon pea
tomorrow ?
9. Why Acayos?
10. Conclusions
Viterbo, Jean Carlo – MSc.
Head of Strategy
Brazil is 1 of the 3 giants (2017)
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Phillipines
Nigeria
Russia
Australia
Canada
United
States
China
Indonesia
Mexico
India
Japan
Germany
United
Kingdom
France
Italy Spain South
Korea
Brazil
*GDP > $ 1 tri
*GDP > $ 2 tri
Area > 7 M km2
Population > 100 M
*International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018
Brazil is 1 of the 3 giants (2017)
Pakistan
Russia
Australia
Canada
United
States
China
Indonesia
India
Japan
Germany
United
Kingdom
France Brazil
*GDP > $ 2 tri
Area > 7 M km2
Population > 200 M
*International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018
Source: http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2017_en.pdf
After China, Brazil is the most preferred for Foreign Direct Investment, among emerging economies
5
BRAZIL GDP
US$1.77 Trillion (2015)
Contributed by
Agriculture
5.4%
Agricultural prod. Volumes
compared to 1990
2x
Livestock prod. volumes
compared to 1990
3x
Productivity boost
$86 Bn / 36%
Agricultural Exports & Share
in Total Exports
Employment
Share
13% Replacing Labour with
Capital & Economic
Reforms
Trends in agricultural output and Total Factor Productivity in Brazil, 1975-2013
Agricultural research (crop &
technologies) aimed at seed
adaptation
“FAO: Brazil will retain its role as leading supplier of food over the next
decade while also meeting the needs of an expanding & increasingly
wealthy population but not without the risks of its macro-economic
condition and reduced import demand by China”
OECD-FAO’s Outlook Issue 2015:
from 143 total pages,
48 pages (33%) dedicated to Brazil.
Brazil shows outstanding potential in agro-food trade, as well as in its farming technologies & productivity
Brazilian Agrotechnology
(Embrapa & others)
Brazil has shown the world’s highest surplus in agro trade, and China the highest deficit
Surplus
Deficit
1995 2015
15 highest surpluses and deficits in the Balance of Trade for agricultural products (US$ bn)
Source: WTO merchandise trade values annual dataset
- Total 15 : US$ 147 bn
- USA with highest surplus.
- Canada 2nd highest surplus
- Netherlands with 3rd surplus
- No significant surplus in Asia
- Subtotal 4 European: US$ 38 bn
- Subtotal 4 Asean: US$ 21 bn
- Total 15 : US$ 194 bn
- Japan had the highest deficit
- China mainland had no significant deficit
- European countries pravailed after
Japan; Germany first in Europe
- Significant deficit in Russia
- Subotal 6 European: US$ 66 bn
- Subtotal 4 Asian deficits: US$ 90 bn
- Total 15 : US$ 304 bn (↑34% net)
- Brazilian leadership (8 → 69 bn)
- USA eliminates its surplus
- Argentina raises to 2nd (10 → 32)
- Canada down to 4th (20 → 25)
- Big growth in Indonesia, Thailand
- Ukraine, Spain and Poland replace
Denmark and Ireland in Europe
- Subtotal 4 European: US$ 55 bn
- Subtotal 4 Asian: US$ 57 bn
- Total 15: US$ 360 bn (↑20% net of inflation)
- China replaces Japan in highest deficit
- Middle East replaces Europe in 3rd
- Outstanding growth of deficit in UK
- Russia eliminates the deficit
- 2 Asian and 1 African replaces
3 European out of the 15
- Subtotal 3 European: US$ 68 bn
- Subtotal 7 Asian: US$ 210 bn
(↑52% net of inflation)
Middle East (WTO) : Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait,Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
WTO Agriculturalproducts: SITC sections 0, 1,
2, 4 minus 27 and 28. Includes animal products,
dairy, forestry, all beverages and tobacco.
US$ inflation 1995 – 2015 = 54%
Source: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/bra/all/show/2016/
Brazil total amount of exports worldwide in 2016: US$ 226 billion
Wood
products
$ 2.91 bn
what are the reasons for such a transformation of
Brazil into a food superpower??
one of the major reasons is that
biomass productivity =
what are the reasons for such a transformation of
Brazil into a food superpower??
one of the major reasons is that
biomass productivity =
soil x sun x water x science3
what are the reasons for such a transformation of
Brazil into a food superpower??
cerrado
SOIL - world’s largest arable land area: cerrado (savannah)
The Economist:
arable land availability
in Brazil is equivalent
to USA and Russia
altogether.
The Economist
acknowledges that Brazil's
agricultural production
(70%) is into the Cerrado
and it is there that the
great agro expansion will
occur, not in the Amazon.
The Braz. Agribusiness
Assoc. estimates that; only
in the Cerrado, there are
90 Mha still to be cropped.
“Mapeamento dos Recursos de Energia Solar no Brasil”
Divisão de Clima e Meio Ambiente – INPE
Labsolar – UFSC, 2007 média diária
Soya Regions BR:
Mainly between 4,90
and 5,95 kwh/m2/day
~45% > USA
Soya Region USA:
Mainly between “less than
4,0” and 4,5 kwh/m2/day
SUN - solar incidence
WATER - precipitation
climatedataguide.ucar.edu
Soya Region USA:
between 20 in/y and 50 in/y;
508 mm and 1270 mm/y
Soya Regions BR:
Precipitation between
1200 and 3000 mm/y
~140% > USA
WATER - gross availability of fresh water and arable land
Science
on productivity
(EMBRAPA agro
research company)
Area - 000 ha
or
Production- 000 tonnes
Productivity
Kg / ha
SCIENCE – evolution of agro productivity in Brazil; example from grain crops
Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) and Bahia (BA) are the major
Soya bean producing states having large irrigated plantations. Therefore,
they are good candidates for plantations of pulses as well…
km 200 600 1200 1800
MT
MS
BA
MA
PI
TO
http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/
17_02_16_11_51_51_boletim_graos_fevereiro_2017.pdf
Brazil regions for Soyabean (2017)
5.5 M Farms / 600 M
ha available crop area.
Average farm area in
Brazil is 100.0 ha.
In Mato Grosso state
(MT), single
properties as large as
5,000 ha are common.
Brazil
Logistics : railways and soyabean
Logistics : railways and energy crops
Forestry
Sugar cane
Rice
Elephant grass
1. China: extreme raise of Agro imports: soybean (0→35 $bn), other vegetables (4→23 $bn) and wood products (2.5→16 $bn).
2. Japan: even though a large deficit, this was slightly reduced from 1995. Wood prods. (14 → 9) most significant reduction.
3. Middle East: big growth (14→ 54). Meat, cereals, dairy and soyabean products in Saudia Arabia, Iran, UAE, Kuwait and Israel.
4. Indonesia: world’s 3rd surplus growth (2 → 21) after BRA (8 → 69) and ARG (10 → 32). Veg. oils (1.5 → 18), paper (1.5 → 6).
5. Thailand: surplus growth in vegetable products (3.3 → 10), mainly rice and cassava, natural rubber as well (2.5 → 5).
6. India: Notwithstanding India emerges towards the world’s largest human food importer, it has shown noticeable surpluses
in agricultural2 products. Some major numbers about India food & agricultural exports in 2016 are:
1) in its Uruguay Round Agreement, WTO DOES NOT consider
fisheries into the agricultural products group. However, for the
statistical timeseries dataset, WTO considers as agricultural
products: SITC sections 0, 1, 2, 4 minus 27 and 28. It includes animal
products, fisheries, dairy, forestry, all beverages and tobacco.
2) total BoT for agricultural products are taken from WTO. The
export values for specific products are from UN trademap.org.
Noticeable changes in WTO Balance of Trade1 time series for agro2 products in Asia from 1995 to 2015
Some figures about the powerful India
1) Along uninterrupt 3/4 of the Christian Era, India was the most
powerful economy in the world (and it probably was so, for
several centuries BC, if extending this chart to prior eras.
http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm
2) The very first nation to use coins is a matter of intense debate.
However, scientists agree that India, Lydia (Greece) and China
were the first to produce metal coins in the 7th century BC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin
3) However, the museum of the Reserve Bank of India holds
samples of what could possibly be “Indian” coins as 2500 BC.
https://www.rbi.org.in/currency/museum/c-ancient.html
4) British endeavours in India got stronger in 1757 (Plassey Battle,
the Nawab of Bengal Sirajuddaulah surrendered his dominions
to East India Co.). Indian economy starts a dramatic fall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Company_rule_in_India
5) British endeavours got stronger in China in 1760 (British began
to use opium as cash crop for Chinese commodities and silver).
http://blogs.bu.edu/guidedhistory/moderneurope/tao-he/
6) In 1820 the British already achieved the 1st GDP in W Europe.
7) Two opium wars (39-42; 60-62) leads Qing Empire to collapse.
http://blogs.bu.edu/guidedhistory/moderneurope/tao-he/
8) Industr. revol. got stronger with 1st assembly line 1870 (USA).
2016 PPP Global
GDP (World Bank):
120.2 trillion of
current international
dollars
2016
East Asia & Pacific
+ South Asia
account for
~41% of the
world’s GDP (PPP)
• By the purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts economic and consumer power within countries, India holds the 3rd
highest GDP in the world, with almost US$ 8 trillion in 2015 (PPP).
• Since the deceleration of China in 2014, India has become the economy with the highest annual GDP growth. It was 7.6%
in 2015, projected to 7.3% in 2016 by the IMF (China 6.9% in 2015; 6.5% in 2016).
• In 5 years, China's population will stagnate. India, then with 1.4 billion people, will have the largest population in the
world and this will grow continuously (10,7 m per year) until 1.7 billion in 2060.
• Although some controversy over the extent of poverty in India, according to world class opinion makers (2015), India has
the largest middle class in the world: Deutsche Bank (300 million people) and McKinsey & Co (250 million, projected to
583 million in 2025). China has about 200 million, according to McKinsey & Co.
• Indians are lowest meat consumers in the world. Surveys cited by FAO and USDA estimate 40% of them are vegetarian
(more than all the rest of the world altogether).
• India is the 9th water richest country (FAO). But it holds 3.6% of world’s fresh water (CIA factbook) to supply world’s
18% population. It had its 4th drought in a dozen years, raising concerns on the reliability of the country's primary source
of fresh water: the monsoon rainfalls (75% of the rain is between June and Sept).
• 70% os India’s population is rural-based. High seasonality of water and its growing scarcity put farmers to depend on
rapidly depleting groundwater sources. Almost half of India's lands are reported to be seriously depleted to
deforestation and poor farming practices.
• Higher food prices may lead to riots, especially in the poorer north and east. Depleting groundwater reserves will
reduce agricultural production, triggering tensions in India. 20
Why India ?
21
http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquamaps look at Analyses / agricultural systems at risk
Land & Water scarcity map – UN FAO 2017
22
Why India ?
23
Why India ?
24
Why India ?
Population
density
• Huge growing population + lowest meat consumer + water & soil depletion = leverage on edible vegetal protein imports.
• McKinsey & Co.: India demand 2030: 1,500 billion m3/y for a growing population from which a large proportion is moving towards a
middle-class diet. India’s water supply currently is ~740 billion m3/y. As a result, most of India’s river basins could face severe deficit
by 2030 unless concerted action is taken, with some of the most populous (including the Ganga, the Krishna, and the Indian portion of
the Indus) facing the world’s biggest absolute water gap.
• In 2030, 80% of de Indian water demand (and the gap, possibly) will be related to agriculture. There is a considerable trend of India to
become the largest importer of grains for human dietary.
25
http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/charting-our-water-future http://www.fao.org/resources/infographics/infographics-details/en/c/382088
The severe Indian scarcity of water will get worst : animal protein shall to fall and vegetal shall to grow
• Legumes: plants whose fruit is enclosed in a pod (1 to 12
grains). More than 600 genera; 13,000 species.

When growing,
they fix nitrogen into the soil, reducing the need for chemical
fertilizers. Legumes are rich in protein, whereas cereals (rice,
wheat, maize, barley..) are rich in carbohydrates (energy).
• Pulses (UN-FAO): Legumes limited to 11 crops harvested
solely as dry grains. Not include vegetable legumes harvested
while still green and not soya beans and peanuts, which have
higher fat content, whereas pulses contain virtually no fat.
• Indian pulses are usually available in three types: the whole
pulse, the split pulse with the skins on, and the split pulse with
the skins removed.
• Major Indian Pulses:
• Pigeon Peas – Tur
• Lentils – Masoor
• Chick Pea – Chana type & Kabuli type
• Cow Peas – Choli
• Kidney Beans – Rajma
If a pulse is split into half, it is a dal (easy cook)
So, split Pigeon Peas is Tur dal. Considering the HS code system, pulses are categorized as
Dried Leguminous Vegetables, with HS code of 0713
Pulses are dry legumes with higher protein and lower fat content
The 68th UN General
Assembly declared 2016 the
International Year of Pulses
(IYP). The goal: to heighten
public awareness of the
nutritional benefits of pulses
as part of sustainable food
production aimed towards
food security and nutrition.
Livestock creation and feeding requires 77% of the world’s arable land to produce 33% of world’s protein
Terras Estéreis
Áreas Polares
Matas
50% da área habitável do planeta é
dedicada à produção agropecuária.
77% da área cultivável do mundo é dedicada
à pecuária, incluindo aqui a produção de
ração a partir da soja, sorgo e milho.
Os 77% da área cultivável usados na
pecuária trazem para a humanidade:
a) apenas 17% das calorias consumidas;
b) apenas 33% da proteína consumida.
https://ourworldindata.org/yields-and-land-use-in-agriculture/
FAO: Livestock is the 2nd GHGs global source, weighting 81% of emissions from farming in Latin America
Notes:
Emissions from energy include industries,
manufacturing and fugitive emissions.
“All other sources” includes international
bunkers, waste and other sources.
The 3 major sources of GHGs emissions from AFOLU in 2014, by region
Global shares of GHGs emissions (CO2 eq.)
from AFOLU activities in 2014
Source: http://www.fao.org/publications/sofa/2016/en
Global shares of GHGs emissions (CO2 eq.)
from all economic activities in 2010
(Agriculture, forestry and other land use, including Livestock)
Land-based production (or farming) is the second largest (21%) emissions source worldwide.
Globally, livestock is responsible for 67% of the emissions from land-based production.
In Latin America, livestock is responsible for 81% of GHGs emissions from farming production.
Livestock is the 2nd major emission source (14%) from all activities, only below energy production.
Meat consumption imposes the largest share of humanity’s water use
From the 351.4 Mton world’s soyabean production in 2017, 316.3 Mton (90%) go to
the smashing industry, turned 80% into animal feedcake and 20% oil (food & fuel).
The WF of the farming sector is 92% of the total WF of humanity.
The WF of animal production is 29% of the WF of the farming sector.
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/animalwelfare/arjen_hoekstra_the_water_footprint_of_humanity.pdf
26% of the USA
crop area
(129 Mha)
57% of the
BRL crop area
(60 Mha)
5.5% of the USA
grain crops
(2,130
Mton)
48% of the
BRL grain crops
(237 Mton)
Global State of Soyabean 2017 (livestock feedcake)
Out of 103 countries > 5 million inhabitants, 55 have Water Footprint (m3/y/cap) above the world average
World average line for water footprint (1385 m3/year/capita)
Niger: water use for cereals is 6x the world avg.
Bolivia: water use for cattle is 5x the world avg.
USA: meat consumption is 4.5x the world avg.
BRL = 2033 m3/y/cap;
meat is 43% of that
Green countries are below the world avg.
Yellow & red are above the world average.
USA = 2842 m3/y/cap;
meat is 31% of that
With certain exceptions, meat is the heaviest weighted
component for the WF of nations ranked above
the world average water consumption.
Authors: Arjen Hoekstra and Mesfin Mekonnen - http://www.pnas.org/content/109/9/3232.full.pdf
More than 80% of India protein is vegetable-based, with no deficit for individual protein needs
Indians’ average protein intake is 60 g/day, so it is slightly above the WHO’s
recommendation, since 41% of the Indian population is below 20 years old.
UN-WHO’s recommendation for a safe protein daily intake is 0,83 g/kg of body
weight, then representing 58g/day for adults (70 kg), 40g/day for teens and
25g/day for children.
M Jalava et al. Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Num 7 - 2014
ourworldindata.org/food-per-person
www.who.int/nutrition/publications/nutrientrequirements/WHO_TRS_935/en
India Infoline News Service | Mumbai | February 26, 2016
The Economic Survey 2015-16 presented in the Parliament by the Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley emphasizes
that the main aim of food management policy is to provide food security to the population.
Providing food security entails making food available at affordable prices at all times, without interruptions. In order to
provide food security, in the current scenario, India has to focus on supplies which are timely and uninterrupted and
affordable for the poor. Though India’s GDP growth has been impressive and the agricultural production has also
increased over the past few decades, hunger and starvation still persist among the poorer section of the population.
The average protein intake/capita/day rises steadily in rural India from 43 g for the bottom 5% of population to 91 g
for the top 5%, and in urban India from 44 g for the bottom 5% to about 87 g for the top 5%.
The Survey states India as the 2nd highest number of undernourished people, 194.6 million persons (FAO, State of Food
Insecurity in the World, 2015) which warrants urgent attention. With 27 % of the population below the poverty line
($1.90/capita/day), the rise in prices of food impacts the poor adversely, with a greater proportion of their household
incomes being spent on food. Therefore, along with provision of food subsidy, stability in agricultural commodity prices
is essential for making poorer sections food secure.
There is a strong correlation between stability in agricultural production and food security. Volatility in production
impacts food supplies and results in spikes in food prices, which adversely affect the lowest income of the population.
Average protein intake per capita per day rises steadily, says Government’s Economic Survey
World and Canada exports on pulses
Canada pulses exports
$22.4 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$3.33 Bn in 2015:
India 36%
Turkey 7.7%
China 7.5%
Bangladesh 5.8%
Unites States 5.4%
United Arab Emirates 5.3%
Total above: 67.7%
World pulses exports
$85.4 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$11.2 Bn in 2015:
Canada 30%
Australia 10%
Myanmar (Burma) 9.4%
United States 8%
China 5.4%
Argentina 3.1%
Total above: 65.9%
Brazil: 0.74%
World trade on lentil
34
World exports
$16.3 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$2.76 Bn in 2015:
Canada 69%
Turkey 8.9%
Australia 7.1%
USA 6.8%
UAE 2.6%
Total above: 94.4%
World imports
$16.3 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$2.76 Bn in 2015:
India 31%
Turkey 9.5%
United Arab Emirates 6.5%
Bangladesh 5.6%
Sri Lanka 4.9%
Egypt 3.9%
Pakistan 3.6%
Total above: 65%
World imports of lentil and chickpea
35
Chickpea
$9.7 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$1.26 Bn in 2015:
India 35%
Bangladesh 8.5%
Pakistan 6.6%
Turkey 6.4%
United Arab Emirates 5.1%
Total above: 61,6%
Lentil
$16.3 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$2.76 Bn in 2015:
India 31%
Turkey 9.5%
United Arab Emirates 6.5%
Bangladesh 5.6%
Sri Lanka 4.9%
Egypt 3.9%
Pakistan 3.6%
Total above: 65%
World imports of mung bean and pigeon pea
36
Mung Bean
$ 8.8 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$1.28 Bn in 2015:
India 50%
Japan 8.9%
Vietnam 6.5%
China 4.9%
Malaysia 2.5%
Total above: 72.8%
97% of world’s
Pigeon Pea is
imported by India
$ 1.76 Bn
from 2013 to 2016
$616 M in 2016:
Myanmar (Burma) 41%
Tanzania 19 %
Mozambique 16 %
Sudan 10 %
Malawi 6.4 %
Total above: 92.2%
India imports of Pigeon Peas (kton)
India imports of pulses and lentils
37
India imports of dried
legumes (pulses)
$19 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$3.44 Bn in 2015:
Canada 35%
Myanmar (Burma) 23%
Australia 13%
Tanzania 5.7%
Mozambique 2.8%
Malawi 2.7%
Russia 2.4%
Brazil 1.2%
Total above: 85.8%
India imports of
lentils
$2.63 Bn
from 2005 to 2015
$859 M in 2015:
Canada 88%
United States 7.5%
Australia 3.2%
Egypt 0.54%
Total above: 99.2%
India general imports from its major suppliers of pulses
38
General imports
from Canada
$22.5 Bn
from 2004 to 2014
Dried Legumes
$4.8 Bn
from 2004 to 2014
$851 M in 2014
General imports
from Myanmar
(Burma)
$8.86 Bn
from 2004 to 2014
Dried Legumes
$5.66 Bn
from 2004 to 2014
$764 M in 2014
39
Vegetable Oils: $2.52 B / 1.9% of total
Foodstuff: $755 M / 0.57% of total
Pulses: $542 M / 0.41% of total; 32% of vegt. Products;
Lentils: $13.1 M / 0.0099% of total; 0.76% of vegt. prods.; 2.4% of pulses
Pulses and Lentils into India overall imports - 2005
Pulses and Lentils into India overall imports - 2015
40
Vegetable Oils: $10 B / 2.7% of total
Foodstuff: $2 B / 0.55% of total
Pulses: $3.44 B / 0.93% of total; 43% of vegt. products (32% in 2004)
Lentils: $859 M / 0,23% of total; 10.8% of vegt. prods.; 25.6% of pulses (3.3% in 2004)
Lentils
41
Pulses
2005
• Pulses had 32% stake ($542 M) in
India’s vegetable products imports
($1.69 B);
• Lentils had 0.77% ($13 M) in India’s
vegetable prods. imports, then
representing 2.4% of pulses imports.
2015
• Pulses grew to 43% stake ($3.42 B) in
India’s vegetable products imports
($7.95 B);
• Lentils were the MOST IMPORTED on
pulses (in $, not in tons) as it jumped
to 10.8% ($ 859 M) in vegetable
prods., then representing 25.6% of
pulses imports.
Lentils imports in India jumped from $13 M in 2005 to $859 M in 2015
Source: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/bra/ind/show/2015/
Brazil total amount of exports TO INDIA in 2015: US$ 3.83 billion (agro = ~30%; pulses = 1.1%)
51,58
28,93
21,87
45 kton
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exported quantities of Top agricultural
commodities by Brazil (M Tons)
19,33
10,44
4,84
3,74
US$ 29 M
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exported Value of Top Agricultural
Commodities from Brazil (US$ Bn)
56
45,50
16,00
11,50
10,72
6,60
3,20
0,75
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Consumption of Food Crops in
Brazil (2011/12 to 2016/17) (M Tons)
Sugar consumption in 2016/17 is 8 Mton
102,4
83,8
32,3 11,5
8
6,7
3,4
3,1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Production of Food Crops in Brazil (2011/12
to 2016/17 (M Tons)
Sugar production in 2016/17 is 37 Mton
← Brazil top exports
World’s1st : Sugarand Coffee
World’s 2nd : Soyabean and Corn
Brazil pulses production is world’s 5th largest,
but its exports are not significant so far…
Source: Conab Brazil and USDA
Source: Conab Brazil and USDA
Source: Trademap
Source: Trademap
1,82
1,23
World Pulses Production 2014:
77,5 Mton (FAO)
Brazil is a major agro-food exporter of soya bean, sugar, coffee and corn
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Country share in Brazil sugar exports
India China Algeria Bangladesh UAE Indonesia
China, 15210, 60%
Germany, 1033, 4%
USA, 1014, 4%
India, 885, 4%
Spain; 731; 3%
Algeria; 709; 3%
Bangladesh; 666; 3%
UAE, 596, 2%
Netherlands; 587; 2%
Indonesia; 586; 2%
Thailand; 571; 2%
Others; 2715
USD Millions
… importing almost only sugar, but India is as much
important to Brazil as Germany, USA and Spain, in terms of
value of exports of top 4 agri-commodities.
Country Share in Brazil’s top 4
agri-commodities exports (2016)
5,1 5,4 8,3 12,7 15,0 12,6 11,8 9,5 7,6 10,4
Brazil’s Sugar Overall
Exports US$ Bn
Source: Trademap
India is the 4th largest agriculture commodity importer from Brazil...
45
India is already Brazil’s largest pulses export destination, and still there is huge potential for this relationship to grow up, due to:
(1) Very large consumption of pulses in India and its growing amount of imports (26% share of total consumption in 2015-16)
(2) The huge availability of water and area in Brazil to new crops: 75 Mha*; the largest availability of water and soil in the world
(3) The world-class technology improvements (Embrapa Research Company) on leguminous crops, from the soya bean experience
*Source: http://www.iica.org.br/download/16MomentoIntercambioMI.pdf
Source: Trademap
Brazil Exports on Pulses 2016 (45,435ton) India’s consumption of Pulses
10Y CAGR for tonnage imports is 13%
In the last 10 years, India’s imports of pulses jumped from 11% to 26% of its consumption
*Data for 2016 are preliminary. The fiscal year in India begins at April.
Source: India Agricultural statistics at a glance 2016
46
Source: trademap.org
Food and beverages are major constituents (46% weight)
of the overall inflation in India ...
... and pulses oftenly plays the major role on food inflation
In 2015, lentils were first
largest Indian pulses
imports in terms of value
(25% alone) , and the
second in terms of
tonnage (20%), with a
small decrease in 2016.
A look at CPI indices in
India suggest Pulses to be
a major driver to inflation
Sources: Reserve Bank
India Monetary Report
April 2014, 2015 and 2016
Inflation is a major concern in India and pulses normally are the heaviest factor on inflation
Lentils were the most imported pulses
in terms of US$ (2nd in tonnage)
Source: trademap.org
Food and beverages are major constituents
(46% weight) of the overall inflation in India ...
... and pulses oftenly plays the major role on food inflation
http://www.oecd.org/econo
my/india-economic-forecast-
summary.htm
Sources: Reserve Bank India
Monetary Report April 2014,
2015 and 2016
Narendra Modi Govt. begins
Pulses’ price stability is strategic for India: imports with reliable partners is necessary to keep prices down
Source: world bank
Desi Chickpea (Chana)
~242 US$/ton
Pigeon Pea (Tur)
~308 US$/ton
Moong bean
~251 US$/ton
Lentils (Masoor)
~332 US$/ton
~426 US$/ton
Except Chickpeas, there is major speculative behaviour which keeps Domestic Wholesale prices significantly
above the International Prices, prominently seen in Lentils & Pigeon Peas. Therefore, price stability of Lentils &
Pigeon Peas is of strategic importance to the Indian government.
Historically, Chickpea wholesale prices have followed the international prices because the significant domestic production allows the government to control prices.
Sources: India Commodity Profile for Pulses Jan 2017
Price differential has been the opportunity for traders into the Indian pulses market…
1 quintal = 100 kg; 1 dollar = 65 rupees
~256 US$/ton
49
7.5 US$/ton
Brazil Trade Margin
(on $600 FOB value)
14 US$/ton
International Trade
Margin (on $360 FOB Value)
Brazilian pulses production is competitive for the Indian market…
174
435
503 509
623 647
713
162 12
261
54 0,8 13 6
1,0 24
66
23% 2%
24%
37%
61%
8% 0,1% 2%
70%
1%
71%
16% 0,1%
87%
3%
91%
9%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Variable
Cost
Fixed Cost Farmgate
Cost
Farmer
Margin
Farmgate
Price
Truck
Freight
Insurance THC FOB Cost
(truck)
Brazil
Trade
Margin
FOB Price Freight to
Mumbai
Insurance CIF
Mumbai
Cost
Intl Trade
Margin
CIF
Mumbai
Price
Domestic
Margin
Wholesale
Price India
423
847
915 926
1041 1081
1301
394 30
423 54 1 13 11
114 2 40
220
30% 2%
33%
33%
65%
4% 0% 1%
70%
1%
71%
9% 0%
80%
3%
83%
17%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
114 US$/ton
Sea Freight from
Paranagua to Mumbai
54 US$/ton
Truck Freight from
MT to Paranagua
Kidney Beans
Cow Peas
From production (Brazil) to Wholesale Market (India)
40:60
Cost to Margin Ratio
for Cow Peas prod.
50:50
Cost to Margin Ratio
for Kidney Beans prod
Margin over the Wholesale price India
Sources: IBRAFE Brazil; Wilson & Sons (Shipping Agency); Conab Brazil
… and the present production cost structures are able to generate
up to 50% margins across the value chain
50
Lentils & Pigeon Peas are able to give ~60% margin across the value chain…
269
673
741 749
864 898
1082
250 19
404 54 1,1 13 9
114 1,4 34
184
23% 2%
25%
37%
62%
5% 0% 1%
68%
1%
69%
11% 0,1%
80%
3,1%
83%
17%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
322
805 873 884
999 1038
1192
300 23
483 54 1,3 13 10
114 2 39
154
25% 2%
27%
41%
68%
5% 0% 1%
73%
1%
74%
10% 0%
84%
3%
87%
13%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Variable
Cost
Fixed Cost Farmgate
Cost
Farmer
Margin
Farmgate
Price
Truck
Freight
Insurance THC FOB Cost
(truck)
Brazil
Trade
Margin
FOB Price Freight to
Mumbai
Insurance CIF
Mumbai
Cost
Intl Trade
Margin
CIF
Mumbai
Price
Domestic
Margin
Wholesale
Price India
Pigeon Peas
Lentils
7.5 US$/ton
Brazil Trade Margin
(on $600FOBvalue)
14 US$/ton
InternationalTrade
Margin (on $360FOBValue)
114 US$/ton
Sea Freight from
Paranaguato Mumbai
54 US$/ton
Truck Freight from
MT to Paranagua
40:60
Cost to MarginRatio
for Lentils & Pigeon Peas
achievable
Wholesale prices for Lentils & Pigeon Peas are average wholesale prices (Jan-15 to Dec-16), Govt. of India. http://agricoop.nic.in/sites/default/files/Pulses.pdf
Fromproduction(Brazil)toWholesaleMarket(India)
Margin over the Wholesale price India
Considering countries other than India, Brazil is the world’s 4th largest pulses producer
Top 10 after India (Mton)
Source - FAOSTAT
BEANS & COWPEAS (FEIJAO) are the pulses consumed in huge scale in Brazil
• Brazilians eat RICE and BEANS ALMOST EVERY DAY. It is their staple diet, since the cereal and the leguminous are highly
complementary, bringing almost all the major nutrients when they are consumed altogether.
• Rice was introduced by the portuguese in 16th century. Beans were already consumed by the indigenous, with cassava flour.
The MOST consumed bean in Brazil is type PINTO bean
In Brazil, Pinto Bean is called Feijão CARIOCA
(Phaseolus vulgaris)
POOR MIDDLE CLASS RICH
BEANS & COWPEAS (FEIJAO) are the pulses consumed in huge scale in Brazil
The SECOND most consumed bean in Brazil is type BLACK
Feijão Preto. Brazilian make Feijoada (black bean cooked
with pig meat), very famous in Brazil and abroad.
(Phaseolus vulgaris)
POOR MIDDLE CLASS RICH
BEANS & COWPEAS (FEIJAO) are the pulses consumed in huge scale in Brazil
The THIRD consumed bean in Brazil is type FRADIÑIO bean.
However, it is the MOST EXPORTED brazilian pulse so far, and has
become the SECOND most produced pulse in the country.
Feijão Fradinho = Feijão de Corda = Feijão CAUPI
CAUPI is the portuguese translation from COW PEA.
Since the high similarity with beans, the Brazilian PRODUCERS,
CONSUMERS AND GOVERNMENT treat COWPEA as it was a BEAN,
even though COW PEA (Vigna unguiculata) is not a bean
POOR
MIDDLE CLASS RICH
Cowpea’s ACARAJEH is very traditional from Bahia state coast: it is famous national & internationally
CONAB: Brazilian major source of estimation data for grain production & export
http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/17_08_10_11_27_12_boletim_graos_agosto_2017.pdf
• Conab is the Federal Agency for Food Supply.
• They make a montly follow-up on brazilian production,
imports and exports for major brazilian grains, throghout
collaboration of several state food supply agencies which
collect interviews from thousands of agro producers.
• This follow-up report is the major reference of Brazilian
production for farmers, commodity operators, fertilizer
& machinery suppliers, banks, stock exchange and several
other governamental institutions.
• The data in next slides come from the last updating
report we have found, which is from AUGUST 2017.
• The original report can be found at the link in the bottom
of this and next pages.
• Even though the report is in portuguese, the data tables
are intelligible for English speakers.
COWPEAS are grown as rotation crop at industrial-scale soybean farms, which have 3 HARVESTS A YEAR
Beans + Cowpea crops
FIRST HARVEST
Beans + Cowpea crops
SECOND HARVEST
Beans + Cowpea crops
1ST + 2ND + 3RD HARVEST
NOTE: regions over the Amazon
are family scale farming
http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/17_08_10_11_27_12_boletim_graos_agosto_2017.pdf
Region’s production
(ton/y)
200 – 1,000
1,001 – 10,000
10,001 – 20,000
20,001 – 43,200
Region’s production
(ton/y)
200 – 1,000
2,001 – 5,000
5,001 – 10,000
10,001 – 22,369
Region’s production
(ton/y)
200 – 2,000
2,001 – 10,000
10,001 – 30,000
30,001 – 90,000
Beans and cowpea production OVER THE 3 ANNUAL HARVESTS
http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/18_03_13_14_15_33_grao_marco_2018.pdf
Beans and cowpea production OVER THE 3 ANNUAL HARVESTS
http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/18_02_08_17_09_36_fevereiro_2018.pdf
Harvest Initial stocks + Production + Imports = Total supply || - Consumption - Exports = Final stocks
Supply and demand for Bean & Cowpea
• The official estimation for pulses EXPORTS in 2017 and 2018 is 125,000 ton.
• However, almost 100% of brazilian exports of beans concerns to cowpea, and
not beans (reminding that for brazilian common sense, cowpea is only one kind of bean).
Note: data sources from march 2018
Sources: FAO, Conab Brasil, State of indian
agriculture 2015-16, INCRA Brasil
Holdings pattern in Brazil
Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) and Bahia (BA) are the major
Soya bean producing states having large irrigated plantations. Therefore,
they are good candidates for plantations of pulses as well…
5.5 M Farms / 600 M ha
available crop area.
Average farm area in Brazil is
100.0 ha.
In Mato Grosso state, single
properties as large as 5,000 ha
are common.
Brazil
India
140 M Farms / 160 M ha
available crop area
Average farm area in India is
1.0 ha, and is decreasing
further.
…so high concentration of land in
Brazil makes commercial farming
significantly more viable. km 200 600 1200 1800
MT
MS
BA
MA
PI
TO
http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/
17_02_16_11_51_51_boletim_graos_fevereiro_2017.pdf
Brazil regions for Soyabean
Industrial-scale farms make world-class farming significantly more viable in Brazil than in India
6,532 large farms in Brazil have more than 9,000 hectares in average
http://www.incra.gov.br/sites/default/files/uploads/estrutura-fundiaria/estat-sticas-de-im-veis-rurais-/brasil_cadastro_imoveis_rurais_geral_pub_e_priv.pdf
- Due to regional differences, the federal agency for land ownership -
INCRA - has established a system for land measure called Fiscal Module –
MF. Each municipality has its own value (in hectares) for the MF. The table
below brings the average MF for EACH STATE:
Under the national average, 100 MF is equal to 3,780 ha.
Brazil has 6,532 large farms (more than 100 MF).
They combine a total area of 61.1 M ha. That results an average of
9,365 ha for each of those 6,532 large farms.
Size Levels # of properties Sum of Area (ha)
1,094 large farms in Mato Grosso State (MT) have almost 15,000 hectares in average
http://www.incra.gov.br/sites/default/files/uploads/estrutura-fundiaria/estat-sticas-de-im-veis-rurais-/cadastro_imoveis_rurais_mt_geral_pub_e_priv.pdf
- Due to regional differences, the federal agency for land ownership -
INCRA - has established a system for land measure called Fiscal
Module – MF. Each municipality has its own value (in hectares) for the
MF. The table below brings the average MF for EACH STATE:
Under the MATO GROSSO average, 100 MF is equal to 8,360 ha.
Mato Grosso has 1,094 large farms (more than 100 local MF).
They combine a total area of 16.1 M ha. That results an average of
14,728 ha for each of those 1,094 large farms.
Size Levels # of properties Sum of Area (ha)
BAHIA state: irrigation systems
GOIAS and MINAS GERAIS states: irrigation systems
MATO GROSSO: leguminous harvest in industrial scale
Rondonopolis: Logistical hub in Mato Grosso state
http://transporteemfoco.com.br/noticia/1710/rondonopolis-tem-o-trecho-mais-movimentado-de-mato-grosso
In the 2015/16 leguminous harvest, Rondonopolis received ~6,000 cargo trucks a day .
Considering 13% production growth in 2016/17 in MT, one can estimate almost 6,750
trucks a day (average 40 ton each = 270,000 ton per day in 2017 at MT alone).
67
Lentils: US$880 / ha
Pigeon Pea: US$533 / ha
Soya Bean: US$630 / ha
Corn: US$523 / ha
90% of Lentils imports come from Canada, followed by Australia
and US leading to overdependence on Canada and leaving the
prices at their mercy – there is no other reliable source for the
Indian govt – Brazil becomes a strategic way out for this.
Lentils are perfectly adaptable for large scale mechanized farming.
The only other large potential country apart from current
exporters is Brazil. Average farm size in Brazil is 100 hectares &
farms more than 5000 ha are common in state of Mato Grosso.
High yields up to 2.2 Tons per Hectares are possible in Brazil.
45% from Myanmar, followed by Tanzania, Mozanbique – govt has tried to diversify
sourcing for Tur and the recent act of the PM to sign an MoU with the Mozambique
govt for 100,000 Tons of Tur is an indication for the same.
Due to a tall plant (200-300 cm) and thick stem, mechanized farming is very difficult,
thus requiring manual labour. The plant stands permanently like coffee, so no crop
rotation is possible. This come as lower interest for the Brazilian style of farming.
Yields in India are as low as 600-800 kg per hectare. Tur growers in Brazil (meant for
cattle feed) claim they have achieved productivity of not more than 1000 kg/ha.
Moreover, no research on seed assimilation for Tur has been done in Brazil so far.
Tur for the future: IARI has started developing a new variety that can give 2000 kg
per ha* and is a short crop, thus ideal for mechanized farming & crop rotation
possible. Officially seeds would come out by 2018
LENTILS (masoor) PIGEON PEA (tur)
Gross Margin
profitablity achieved
* http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/end-to-dal-woes-scientists-breed-high-yield-super-arhar-variety/
Why Lentils today? Why Pigeon Peas tomorrow?
• Similar, yet points of departure
• Value based, collaborative but not exploitative
• Open and transparent, patient and perseverant
Culturally, Indian Companies are
Cultural similarities between India and Brazil
1. Brazil is world’s #1 surplus in agro trade, due to largest availability of land &water, plus cutting edge agro-technologies.
Land concentration makes world-class farming more viable in Brazil than India, who lacks land and water very seriously.
2. India intense and steady economic growth highlights high potentials for its agro exports (rice, bovine meat, cotton,
fisheries) as much for its agro imports (sugar and pulses).
3. Brazil is a major agro-food exporter of soya bean and corn (world 2nd), sugar and coffee (world 1st). Brazil ranks 5th in
pulses production, but with no significant exports on pulses so far.
4. India is the 4th largest agriculture commodity importer from Brazil... almost only for sugar, but India is as much important to
the Brazilian agro trade as Germany or USA.
5. India is already Brazil’s largest pulses exports destination (66%) with a huge growth potential, due to pulses imports in India
is under constant growth, reaching more than 26% of national consumption in 2015.
6. Current Brazilian cost structure is able to generate up to 50% margin across the value chain (kidney bean & cow pea),
whereas, lentil & pigeon pea have a potential to give ~60% margin across the value chain.
7. Pulses imports under reliable prices in the long run are highly strategic issues to India for food security and inflation
control. Lentil represented the 2nd largest pulses imports in India in 2015 (25%).
8. Lentil presents a lucrative trading opportunity for traders into the Indian market, as well as gives the best gross margin
returns in farming in Brazil (40% more than Soya bean).
9. Therefore, lentil production in Brazil for export to India is the best-case-scenario for Brazilian farmers, India’s
food security concerns and also for Indian traders.
Conclusions
• Acayos has its on warehouse area at 50 km from São Paulo city (Vinhedo city). Since 2005, the services concentrate on logistics providing,
beyond consultancy & brokerage on foreign trade.
• Competences on heavy-weight international logistics: mining, agribusiness and wind turbine’s blades.
• Its founder has travelled the country for years, for several fieldwork services for the Brazilian railway corporations: operations research,
field evaluation, planning, construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure and machinery.
• As a result, he is one of the 3 co-authors of the most detailed Brazilian railway network map.
• Another result is an strong knowledge and relationships concerning to Brazil’s largest suppliers of agricultural and mineral commodities,
trading companies and major national and international logistics providers.
• These long-lasting fieldwork and relationships have conducted us to the brokerage on sugar and soya bean, and to the learning of the
production processes for soya bean within largest farmers in Mato Grosso state (Brazil’s major producer).
• Acayos team consists on technicians, agronomists and farmers experienced in diverse cultures.
• Standing with a reliable & competent company as Acayos is critical to develop investments in Agribusiness in Brazil.
Gonzalez @ acayosagro.com.br Viterbo @ acayosagro.com.br
We are open to partnerships – in trading or production
70
Why Acayos ?
Carlos Gonzalez, 56
• Experience in logistics for agricultural commodities since the age of 18,
on sales of crops from the agricultural cooperatives at Brazilian
midwest to the ports of Santos and Paranaguá
• Experience in logistics in road, rail, fluvial and long course - the latter
including all customs clearance and international freight
• Worked for Ferronorte logistics demand studies and implementation of
rail terminals and warehouse (silos)
• Founder of Acayos Logistics and Acayos Agro.
• 15 years of consulting for agricultural groups, advising in routes and
construction of 74 silos for grains price hedging
• Recent works focused on agribusiness, from the maintenance of
agricultural machinery and operation of farms (outsourcing of
preparation, planting, spraying and harvesting), and completing the value
chain with commodities’ brokerage and logistics
Jean Carlo Viterbo – MSc., 42
• Bachelor in Business Administration, FGV Brazil; Specialization in Renewable
Energy, UniKassel Germany; Master of Science in Naval Eng., USP Brazil;
Specialization in Exponential Techs., Singularity University, Nasa Ames & Google,
Silicon Valley USA
• Director at the Brazil India Chamber of Commerce
• Strategy Director at Acayos Agro Ltd
• Strategy Director at CRIVEX Imp. & Exp. Ltd
• Former Head of Strategy Americas, International Dialogue Advisors. Corporate
Diplomacy from Europe & Brazil to deal with the European and the Brazilian
Parliaments
• Evaluation of the competitiveness of Brazilian-borne ship machinery supply chain
the for Oil & Gas Industry
• Engineering and institutional assessment to promote new export routes for soya
beans throughout Amazon waterways
• Consultant in wind energy and agroenergy (pellets and biodiesel). First Brazilian to
research on the matter of Offshore Wind Energy
Why Acayos ?

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Pulses from brazil

  • 1. 1 Business Potential for Pulses Production in Brazil for the Indian Market Scope Covered 1. Agro trade in Brazil and India 2. Why India ? 3. Why Pulses ? 4. World, India and Brazil trade on pulses 5. Strategic importance of pulses for the Indian economy 6. Essays on prices and margins for pulses 7. Evolution and distribution of pulses production in Brazil 8. Why lentil today and pigeon pea tomorrow ? 9. Why Acayos? 10. Conclusions Viterbo, Jean Carlo – MSc. Head of Strategy
  • 2. Brazil is 1 of the 3 giants (2017) Bangladesh Pakistan Phillipines Nigeria Russia Australia Canada United States China Indonesia Mexico India Japan Germany United Kingdom France Italy Spain South Korea Brazil *GDP > $ 1 tri *GDP > $ 2 tri Area > 7 M km2 Population > 100 M *International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018
  • 3. Brazil is 1 of the 3 giants (2017) Pakistan Russia Australia Canada United States China Indonesia India Japan Germany United Kingdom France Brazil *GDP > $ 2 tri Area > 7 M km2 Population > 200 M *International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018
  • 4. Source: http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2017_en.pdf After China, Brazil is the most preferred for Foreign Direct Investment, among emerging economies
  • 5. 5 BRAZIL GDP US$1.77 Trillion (2015) Contributed by Agriculture 5.4% Agricultural prod. Volumes compared to 1990 2x Livestock prod. volumes compared to 1990 3x Productivity boost $86 Bn / 36% Agricultural Exports & Share in Total Exports Employment Share 13% Replacing Labour with Capital & Economic Reforms Trends in agricultural output and Total Factor Productivity in Brazil, 1975-2013 Agricultural research (crop & technologies) aimed at seed adaptation “FAO: Brazil will retain its role as leading supplier of food over the next decade while also meeting the needs of an expanding & increasingly wealthy population but not without the risks of its macro-economic condition and reduced import demand by China” OECD-FAO’s Outlook Issue 2015: from 143 total pages, 48 pages (33%) dedicated to Brazil. Brazil shows outstanding potential in agro-food trade, as well as in its farming technologies & productivity Brazilian Agrotechnology (Embrapa & others)
  • 6. Brazil has shown the world’s highest surplus in agro trade, and China the highest deficit Surplus Deficit 1995 2015 15 highest surpluses and deficits in the Balance of Trade for agricultural products (US$ bn) Source: WTO merchandise trade values annual dataset - Total 15 : US$ 147 bn - USA with highest surplus. - Canada 2nd highest surplus - Netherlands with 3rd surplus - No significant surplus in Asia - Subtotal 4 European: US$ 38 bn - Subtotal 4 Asean: US$ 21 bn - Total 15 : US$ 194 bn - Japan had the highest deficit - China mainland had no significant deficit - European countries pravailed after Japan; Germany first in Europe - Significant deficit in Russia - Subotal 6 European: US$ 66 bn - Subtotal 4 Asian deficits: US$ 90 bn - Total 15 : US$ 304 bn (↑34% net) - Brazilian leadership (8 → 69 bn) - USA eliminates its surplus - Argentina raises to 2nd (10 → 32) - Canada down to 4th (20 → 25) - Big growth in Indonesia, Thailand - Ukraine, Spain and Poland replace Denmark and Ireland in Europe - Subtotal 4 European: US$ 55 bn - Subtotal 4 Asian: US$ 57 bn - Total 15: US$ 360 bn (↑20% net of inflation) - China replaces Japan in highest deficit - Middle East replaces Europe in 3rd - Outstanding growth of deficit in UK - Russia eliminates the deficit - 2 Asian and 1 African replaces 3 European out of the 15 - Subtotal 3 European: US$ 68 bn - Subtotal 7 Asian: US$ 210 bn (↑52% net of inflation) Middle East (WTO) : Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen WTO Agriculturalproducts: SITC sections 0, 1, 2, 4 minus 27 and 28. Includes animal products, dairy, forestry, all beverages and tobacco. US$ inflation 1995 – 2015 = 54%
  • 7. Source: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/bra/all/show/2016/ Brazil total amount of exports worldwide in 2016: US$ 226 billion Wood products $ 2.91 bn
  • 8. what are the reasons for such a transformation of Brazil into a food superpower??
  • 9. one of the major reasons is that biomass productivity = what are the reasons for such a transformation of Brazil into a food superpower??
  • 10. one of the major reasons is that biomass productivity = soil x sun x water x science3 what are the reasons for such a transformation of Brazil into a food superpower??
  • 11. cerrado SOIL - world’s largest arable land area: cerrado (savannah) The Economist: arable land availability in Brazil is equivalent to USA and Russia altogether. The Economist acknowledges that Brazil's agricultural production (70%) is into the Cerrado and it is there that the great agro expansion will occur, not in the Amazon. The Braz. Agribusiness Assoc. estimates that; only in the Cerrado, there are 90 Mha still to be cropped.
  • 12. “Mapeamento dos Recursos de Energia Solar no Brasil” Divisão de Clima e Meio Ambiente – INPE Labsolar – UFSC, 2007 média diária Soya Regions BR: Mainly between 4,90 and 5,95 kwh/m2/day ~45% > USA Soya Region USA: Mainly between “less than 4,0” and 4,5 kwh/m2/day SUN - solar incidence
  • 13. WATER - precipitation climatedataguide.ucar.edu Soya Region USA: between 20 in/y and 50 in/y; 508 mm and 1270 mm/y Soya Regions BR: Precipitation between 1200 and 3000 mm/y ~140% > USA
  • 14. WATER - gross availability of fresh water and arable land
  • 15. Science on productivity (EMBRAPA agro research company) Area - 000 ha or Production- 000 tonnes Productivity Kg / ha SCIENCE – evolution of agro productivity in Brazil; example from grain crops
  • 16. Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) and Bahia (BA) are the major Soya bean producing states having large irrigated plantations. Therefore, they are good candidates for plantations of pulses as well… km 200 600 1200 1800 MT MS BA MA PI TO http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/ 17_02_16_11_51_51_boletim_graos_fevereiro_2017.pdf Brazil regions for Soyabean (2017) 5.5 M Farms / 600 M ha available crop area. Average farm area in Brazil is 100.0 ha. In Mato Grosso state (MT), single properties as large as 5,000 ha are common. Brazil Logistics : railways and soyabean
  • 17. Logistics : railways and energy crops Forestry Sugar cane Rice Elephant grass
  • 18. 1. China: extreme raise of Agro imports: soybean (0→35 $bn), other vegetables (4→23 $bn) and wood products (2.5→16 $bn). 2. Japan: even though a large deficit, this was slightly reduced from 1995. Wood prods. (14 → 9) most significant reduction. 3. Middle East: big growth (14→ 54). Meat, cereals, dairy and soyabean products in Saudia Arabia, Iran, UAE, Kuwait and Israel. 4. Indonesia: world’s 3rd surplus growth (2 → 21) after BRA (8 → 69) and ARG (10 → 32). Veg. oils (1.5 → 18), paper (1.5 → 6). 5. Thailand: surplus growth in vegetable products (3.3 → 10), mainly rice and cassava, natural rubber as well (2.5 → 5). 6. India: Notwithstanding India emerges towards the world’s largest human food importer, it has shown noticeable surpluses in agricultural2 products. Some major numbers about India food & agricultural exports in 2016 are: 1) in its Uruguay Round Agreement, WTO DOES NOT consider fisheries into the agricultural products group. However, for the statistical timeseries dataset, WTO considers as agricultural products: SITC sections 0, 1, 2, 4 minus 27 and 28. It includes animal products, fisheries, dairy, forestry, all beverages and tobacco. 2) total BoT for agricultural products are taken from WTO. The export values for specific products are from UN trademap.org. Noticeable changes in WTO Balance of Trade1 time series for agro2 products in Asia from 1995 to 2015
  • 19. Some figures about the powerful India 1) Along uninterrupt 3/4 of the Christian Era, India was the most powerful economy in the world (and it probably was so, for several centuries BC, if extending this chart to prior eras. http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm 2) The very first nation to use coins is a matter of intense debate. However, scientists agree that India, Lydia (Greece) and China were the first to produce metal coins in the 7th century BC. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin 3) However, the museum of the Reserve Bank of India holds samples of what could possibly be “Indian” coins as 2500 BC. https://www.rbi.org.in/currency/museum/c-ancient.html 4) British endeavours in India got stronger in 1757 (Plassey Battle, the Nawab of Bengal Sirajuddaulah surrendered his dominions to East India Co.). Indian economy starts a dramatic fall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Company_rule_in_India 5) British endeavours got stronger in China in 1760 (British began to use opium as cash crop for Chinese commodities and silver). http://blogs.bu.edu/guidedhistory/moderneurope/tao-he/ 6) In 1820 the British already achieved the 1st GDP in W Europe. 7) Two opium wars (39-42; 60-62) leads Qing Empire to collapse. http://blogs.bu.edu/guidedhistory/moderneurope/tao-he/ 8) Industr. revol. got stronger with 1st assembly line 1870 (USA). 2016 PPP Global GDP (World Bank): 120.2 trillion of current international dollars 2016 East Asia & Pacific + South Asia account for ~41% of the world’s GDP (PPP)
  • 20. • By the purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts economic and consumer power within countries, India holds the 3rd highest GDP in the world, with almost US$ 8 trillion in 2015 (PPP). • Since the deceleration of China in 2014, India has become the economy with the highest annual GDP growth. It was 7.6% in 2015, projected to 7.3% in 2016 by the IMF (China 6.9% in 2015; 6.5% in 2016). • In 5 years, China's population will stagnate. India, then with 1.4 billion people, will have the largest population in the world and this will grow continuously (10,7 m per year) until 1.7 billion in 2060. • Although some controversy over the extent of poverty in India, according to world class opinion makers (2015), India has the largest middle class in the world: Deutsche Bank (300 million people) and McKinsey & Co (250 million, projected to 583 million in 2025). China has about 200 million, according to McKinsey & Co. • Indians are lowest meat consumers in the world. Surveys cited by FAO and USDA estimate 40% of them are vegetarian (more than all the rest of the world altogether). • India is the 9th water richest country (FAO). But it holds 3.6% of world’s fresh water (CIA factbook) to supply world’s 18% population. It had its 4th drought in a dozen years, raising concerns on the reliability of the country's primary source of fresh water: the monsoon rainfalls (75% of the rain is between June and Sept). • 70% os India’s population is rural-based. High seasonality of water and its growing scarcity put farmers to depend on rapidly depleting groundwater sources. Almost half of India's lands are reported to be seriously depleted to deforestation and poor farming practices. • Higher food prices may lead to riots, especially in the poorer north and east. Depleting groundwater reserves will reduce agricultural production, triggering tensions in India. 20 Why India ?
  • 21. 21 http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquamaps look at Analyses / agricultural systems at risk Land & Water scarcity map – UN FAO 2017
  • 25. • Huge growing population + lowest meat consumer + water & soil depletion = leverage on edible vegetal protein imports. • McKinsey & Co.: India demand 2030: 1,500 billion m3/y for a growing population from which a large proportion is moving towards a middle-class diet. India’s water supply currently is ~740 billion m3/y. As a result, most of India’s river basins could face severe deficit by 2030 unless concerted action is taken, with some of the most populous (including the Ganga, the Krishna, and the Indian portion of the Indus) facing the world’s biggest absolute water gap. • In 2030, 80% of de Indian water demand (and the gap, possibly) will be related to agriculture. There is a considerable trend of India to become the largest importer of grains for human dietary. 25 http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/charting-our-water-future http://www.fao.org/resources/infographics/infographics-details/en/c/382088 The severe Indian scarcity of water will get worst : animal protein shall to fall and vegetal shall to grow
  • 26. • Legumes: plants whose fruit is enclosed in a pod (1 to 12 grains). More than 600 genera; 13,000 species.
 When growing, they fix nitrogen into the soil, reducing the need for chemical fertilizers. Legumes are rich in protein, whereas cereals (rice, wheat, maize, barley..) are rich in carbohydrates (energy). • Pulses (UN-FAO): Legumes limited to 11 crops harvested solely as dry grains. Not include vegetable legumes harvested while still green and not soya beans and peanuts, which have higher fat content, whereas pulses contain virtually no fat. • Indian pulses are usually available in three types: the whole pulse, the split pulse with the skins on, and the split pulse with the skins removed. • Major Indian Pulses: • Pigeon Peas – Tur • Lentils – Masoor • Chick Pea – Chana type & Kabuli type • Cow Peas – Choli • Kidney Beans – Rajma If a pulse is split into half, it is a dal (easy cook) So, split Pigeon Peas is Tur dal. Considering the HS code system, pulses are categorized as Dried Leguminous Vegetables, with HS code of 0713 Pulses are dry legumes with higher protein and lower fat content The 68th UN General Assembly declared 2016 the International Year of Pulses (IYP). The goal: to heighten public awareness of the nutritional benefits of pulses as part of sustainable food production aimed towards food security and nutrition.
  • 27. Livestock creation and feeding requires 77% of the world’s arable land to produce 33% of world’s protein Terras Estéreis Áreas Polares Matas 50% da área habitável do planeta é dedicada à produção agropecuária. 77% da área cultivável do mundo é dedicada à pecuária, incluindo aqui a produção de ração a partir da soja, sorgo e milho. Os 77% da área cultivável usados na pecuária trazem para a humanidade: a) apenas 17% das calorias consumidas; b) apenas 33% da proteína consumida. https://ourworldindata.org/yields-and-land-use-in-agriculture/
  • 28. FAO: Livestock is the 2nd GHGs global source, weighting 81% of emissions from farming in Latin America Notes: Emissions from energy include industries, manufacturing and fugitive emissions. “All other sources” includes international bunkers, waste and other sources. The 3 major sources of GHGs emissions from AFOLU in 2014, by region Global shares of GHGs emissions (CO2 eq.) from AFOLU activities in 2014 Source: http://www.fao.org/publications/sofa/2016/en Global shares of GHGs emissions (CO2 eq.) from all economic activities in 2010 (Agriculture, forestry and other land use, including Livestock) Land-based production (or farming) is the second largest (21%) emissions source worldwide. Globally, livestock is responsible for 67% of the emissions from land-based production. In Latin America, livestock is responsible for 81% of GHGs emissions from farming production. Livestock is the 2nd major emission source (14%) from all activities, only below energy production.
  • 29. Meat consumption imposes the largest share of humanity’s water use From the 351.4 Mton world’s soyabean production in 2017, 316.3 Mton (90%) go to the smashing industry, turned 80% into animal feedcake and 20% oil (food & fuel). The WF of the farming sector is 92% of the total WF of humanity. The WF of animal production is 29% of the WF of the farming sector. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/animalwelfare/arjen_hoekstra_the_water_footprint_of_humanity.pdf 26% of the USA crop area (129 Mha) 57% of the BRL crop area (60 Mha) 5.5% of the USA grain crops (2,130 Mton) 48% of the BRL grain crops (237 Mton) Global State of Soyabean 2017 (livestock feedcake)
  • 30. Out of 103 countries > 5 million inhabitants, 55 have Water Footprint (m3/y/cap) above the world average World average line for water footprint (1385 m3/year/capita) Niger: water use for cereals is 6x the world avg. Bolivia: water use for cattle is 5x the world avg. USA: meat consumption is 4.5x the world avg. BRL = 2033 m3/y/cap; meat is 43% of that Green countries are below the world avg. Yellow & red are above the world average. USA = 2842 m3/y/cap; meat is 31% of that With certain exceptions, meat is the heaviest weighted component for the WF of nations ranked above the world average water consumption. Authors: Arjen Hoekstra and Mesfin Mekonnen - http://www.pnas.org/content/109/9/3232.full.pdf
  • 31. More than 80% of India protein is vegetable-based, with no deficit for individual protein needs Indians’ average protein intake is 60 g/day, so it is slightly above the WHO’s recommendation, since 41% of the Indian population is below 20 years old. UN-WHO’s recommendation for a safe protein daily intake is 0,83 g/kg of body weight, then representing 58g/day for adults (70 kg), 40g/day for teens and 25g/day for children. M Jalava et al. Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Num 7 - 2014 ourworldindata.org/food-per-person www.who.int/nutrition/publications/nutrientrequirements/WHO_TRS_935/en
  • 32. India Infoline News Service | Mumbai | February 26, 2016 The Economic Survey 2015-16 presented in the Parliament by the Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley emphasizes that the main aim of food management policy is to provide food security to the population. Providing food security entails making food available at affordable prices at all times, without interruptions. In order to provide food security, in the current scenario, India has to focus on supplies which are timely and uninterrupted and affordable for the poor. Though India’s GDP growth has been impressive and the agricultural production has also increased over the past few decades, hunger and starvation still persist among the poorer section of the population. The average protein intake/capita/day rises steadily in rural India from 43 g for the bottom 5% of population to 91 g for the top 5%, and in urban India from 44 g for the bottom 5% to about 87 g for the top 5%. The Survey states India as the 2nd highest number of undernourished people, 194.6 million persons (FAO, State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2015) which warrants urgent attention. With 27 % of the population below the poverty line ($1.90/capita/day), the rise in prices of food impacts the poor adversely, with a greater proportion of their household incomes being spent on food. Therefore, along with provision of food subsidy, stability in agricultural commodity prices is essential for making poorer sections food secure. There is a strong correlation between stability in agricultural production and food security. Volatility in production impacts food supplies and results in spikes in food prices, which adversely affect the lowest income of the population. Average protein intake per capita per day rises steadily, says Government’s Economic Survey
  • 33. World and Canada exports on pulses Canada pulses exports $22.4 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $3.33 Bn in 2015: India 36% Turkey 7.7% China 7.5% Bangladesh 5.8% Unites States 5.4% United Arab Emirates 5.3% Total above: 67.7% World pulses exports $85.4 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $11.2 Bn in 2015: Canada 30% Australia 10% Myanmar (Burma) 9.4% United States 8% China 5.4% Argentina 3.1% Total above: 65.9% Brazil: 0.74%
  • 34. World trade on lentil 34 World exports $16.3 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $2.76 Bn in 2015: Canada 69% Turkey 8.9% Australia 7.1% USA 6.8% UAE 2.6% Total above: 94.4% World imports $16.3 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $2.76 Bn in 2015: India 31% Turkey 9.5% United Arab Emirates 6.5% Bangladesh 5.6% Sri Lanka 4.9% Egypt 3.9% Pakistan 3.6% Total above: 65%
  • 35. World imports of lentil and chickpea 35 Chickpea $9.7 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $1.26 Bn in 2015: India 35% Bangladesh 8.5% Pakistan 6.6% Turkey 6.4% United Arab Emirates 5.1% Total above: 61,6% Lentil $16.3 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $2.76 Bn in 2015: India 31% Turkey 9.5% United Arab Emirates 6.5% Bangladesh 5.6% Sri Lanka 4.9% Egypt 3.9% Pakistan 3.6% Total above: 65%
  • 36. World imports of mung bean and pigeon pea 36 Mung Bean $ 8.8 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $1.28 Bn in 2015: India 50% Japan 8.9% Vietnam 6.5% China 4.9% Malaysia 2.5% Total above: 72.8% 97% of world’s Pigeon Pea is imported by India $ 1.76 Bn from 2013 to 2016 $616 M in 2016: Myanmar (Burma) 41% Tanzania 19 % Mozambique 16 % Sudan 10 % Malawi 6.4 % Total above: 92.2% India imports of Pigeon Peas (kton)
  • 37. India imports of pulses and lentils 37 India imports of dried legumes (pulses) $19 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $3.44 Bn in 2015: Canada 35% Myanmar (Burma) 23% Australia 13% Tanzania 5.7% Mozambique 2.8% Malawi 2.7% Russia 2.4% Brazil 1.2% Total above: 85.8% India imports of lentils $2.63 Bn from 2005 to 2015 $859 M in 2015: Canada 88% United States 7.5% Australia 3.2% Egypt 0.54% Total above: 99.2%
  • 38. India general imports from its major suppliers of pulses 38 General imports from Canada $22.5 Bn from 2004 to 2014 Dried Legumes $4.8 Bn from 2004 to 2014 $851 M in 2014 General imports from Myanmar (Burma) $8.86 Bn from 2004 to 2014 Dried Legumes $5.66 Bn from 2004 to 2014 $764 M in 2014
  • 39. 39 Vegetable Oils: $2.52 B / 1.9% of total Foodstuff: $755 M / 0.57% of total Pulses: $542 M / 0.41% of total; 32% of vegt. Products; Lentils: $13.1 M / 0.0099% of total; 0.76% of vegt. prods.; 2.4% of pulses Pulses and Lentils into India overall imports - 2005
  • 40. Pulses and Lentils into India overall imports - 2015 40 Vegetable Oils: $10 B / 2.7% of total Foodstuff: $2 B / 0.55% of total Pulses: $3.44 B / 0.93% of total; 43% of vegt. products (32% in 2004) Lentils: $859 M / 0,23% of total; 10.8% of vegt. prods.; 25.6% of pulses (3.3% in 2004)
  • 41. Lentils 41 Pulses 2005 • Pulses had 32% stake ($542 M) in India’s vegetable products imports ($1.69 B); • Lentils had 0.77% ($13 M) in India’s vegetable prods. imports, then representing 2.4% of pulses imports. 2015 • Pulses grew to 43% stake ($3.42 B) in India’s vegetable products imports ($7.95 B); • Lentils were the MOST IMPORTED on pulses (in $, not in tons) as it jumped to 10.8% ($ 859 M) in vegetable prods., then representing 25.6% of pulses imports. Lentils imports in India jumped from $13 M in 2005 to $859 M in 2015
  • 42. Source: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/bra/ind/show/2015/ Brazil total amount of exports TO INDIA in 2015: US$ 3.83 billion (agro = ~30%; pulses = 1.1%)
  • 43. 51,58 28,93 21,87 45 kton - 20 40 60 80 100 120 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Exported quantities of Top agricultural commodities by Brazil (M Tons) 19,33 10,44 4,84 3,74 US$ 29 M - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Exported Value of Top Agricultural Commodities from Brazil (US$ Bn) 56 45,50 16,00 11,50 10,72 6,60 3,20 0,75 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Consumption of Food Crops in Brazil (2011/12 to 2016/17) (M Tons) Sugar consumption in 2016/17 is 8 Mton 102,4 83,8 32,3 11,5 8 6,7 3,4 3,1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Production of Food Crops in Brazil (2011/12 to 2016/17 (M Tons) Sugar production in 2016/17 is 37 Mton ← Brazil top exports World’s1st : Sugarand Coffee World’s 2nd : Soyabean and Corn Brazil pulses production is world’s 5th largest, but its exports are not significant so far… Source: Conab Brazil and USDA Source: Conab Brazil and USDA Source: Trademap Source: Trademap 1,82 1,23 World Pulses Production 2014: 77,5 Mton (FAO) Brazil is a major agro-food exporter of soya bean, sugar, coffee and corn
  • 44. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Country share in Brazil sugar exports India China Algeria Bangladesh UAE Indonesia China, 15210, 60% Germany, 1033, 4% USA, 1014, 4% India, 885, 4% Spain; 731; 3% Algeria; 709; 3% Bangladesh; 666; 3% UAE, 596, 2% Netherlands; 587; 2% Indonesia; 586; 2% Thailand; 571; 2% Others; 2715 USD Millions … importing almost only sugar, but India is as much important to Brazil as Germany, USA and Spain, in terms of value of exports of top 4 agri-commodities. Country Share in Brazil’s top 4 agri-commodities exports (2016) 5,1 5,4 8,3 12,7 15,0 12,6 11,8 9,5 7,6 10,4 Brazil’s Sugar Overall Exports US$ Bn Source: Trademap India is the 4th largest agriculture commodity importer from Brazil...
  • 45. 45 India is already Brazil’s largest pulses export destination, and still there is huge potential for this relationship to grow up, due to: (1) Very large consumption of pulses in India and its growing amount of imports (26% share of total consumption in 2015-16) (2) The huge availability of water and area in Brazil to new crops: 75 Mha*; the largest availability of water and soil in the world (3) The world-class technology improvements (Embrapa Research Company) on leguminous crops, from the soya bean experience *Source: http://www.iica.org.br/download/16MomentoIntercambioMI.pdf Source: Trademap Brazil Exports on Pulses 2016 (45,435ton) India’s consumption of Pulses 10Y CAGR for tonnage imports is 13% In the last 10 years, India’s imports of pulses jumped from 11% to 26% of its consumption *Data for 2016 are preliminary. The fiscal year in India begins at April. Source: India Agricultural statistics at a glance 2016
  • 46. 46 Source: trademap.org Food and beverages are major constituents (46% weight) of the overall inflation in India ... ... and pulses oftenly plays the major role on food inflation In 2015, lentils were first largest Indian pulses imports in terms of value (25% alone) , and the second in terms of tonnage (20%), with a small decrease in 2016. A look at CPI indices in India suggest Pulses to be a major driver to inflation Sources: Reserve Bank India Monetary Report April 2014, 2015 and 2016 Inflation is a major concern in India and pulses normally are the heaviest factor on inflation Lentils were the most imported pulses in terms of US$ (2nd in tonnage) Source: trademap.org
  • 47. Food and beverages are major constituents (46% weight) of the overall inflation in India ... ... and pulses oftenly plays the major role on food inflation http://www.oecd.org/econo my/india-economic-forecast- summary.htm Sources: Reserve Bank India Monetary Report April 2014, 2015 and 2016 Narendra Modi Govt. begins Pulses’ price stability is strategic for India: imports with reliable partners is necessary to keep prices down Source: world bank
  • 48. Desi Chickpea (Chana) ~242 US$/ton Pigeon Pea (Tur) ~308 US$/ton Moong bean ~251 US$/ton Lentils (Masoor) ~332 US$/ton ~426 US$/ton Except Chickpeas, there is major speculative behaviour which keeps Domestic Wholesale prices significantly above the International Prices, prominently seen in Lentils & Pigeon Peas. Therefore, price stability of Lentils & Pigeon Peas is of strategic importance to the Indian government. Historically, Chickpea wholesale prices have followed the international prices because the significant domestic production allows the government to control prices. Sources: India Commodity Profile for Pulses Jan 2017 Price differential has been the opportunity for traders into the Indian pulses market… 1 quintal = 100 kg; 1 dollar = 65 rupees ~256 US$/ton
  • 49. 49 7.5 US$/ton Brazil Trade Margin (on $600 FOB value) 14 US$/ton International Trade Margin (on $360 FOB Value) Brazilian pulses production is competitive for the Indian market… 174 435 503 509 623 647 713 162 12 261 54 0,8 13 6 1,0 24 66 23% 2% 24% 37% 61% 8% 0,1% 2% 70% 1% 71% 16% 0,1% 87% 3% 91% 9% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Variable Cost Fixed Cost Farmgate Cost Farmer Margin Farmgate Price Truck Freight Insurance THC FOB Cost (truck) Brazil Trade Margin FOB Price Freight to Mumbai Insurance CIF Mumbai Cost Intl Trade Margin CIF Mumbai Price Domestic Margin Wholesale Price India 423 847 915 926 1041 1081 1301 394 30 423 54 1 13 11 114 2 40 220 30% 2% 33% 33% 65% 4% 0% 1% 70% 1% 71% 9% 0% 80% 3% 83% 17% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 114 US$/ton Sea Freight from Paranagua to Mumbai 54 US$/ton Truck Freight from MT to Paranagua Kidney Beans Cow Peas From production (Brazil) to Wholesale Market (India) 40:60 Cost to Margin Ratio for Cow Peas prod. 50:50 Cost to Margin Ratio for Kidney Beans prod Margin over the Wholesale price India Sources: IBRAFE Brazil; Wilson & Sons (Shipping Agency); Conab Brazil … and the present production cost structures are able to generate up to 50% margins across the value chain
  • 50. 50 Lentils & Pigeon Peas are able to give ~60% margin across the value chain… 269 673 741 749 864 898 1082 250 19 404 54 1,1 13 9 114 1,4 34 184 23% 2% 25% 37% 62% 5% 0% 1% 68% 1% 69% 11% 0,1% 80% 3,1% 83% 17% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 322 805 873 884 999 1038 1192 300 23 483 54 1,3 13 10 114 2 39 154 25% 2% 27% 41% 68% 5% 0% 1% 73% 1% 74% 10% 0% 84% 3% 87% 13% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Variable Cost Fixed Cost Farmgate Cost Farmer Margin Farmgate Price Truck Freight Insurance THC FOB Cost (truck) Brazil Trade Margin FOB Price Freight to Mumbai Insurance CIF Mumbai Cost Intl Trade Margin CIF Mumbai Price Domestic Margin Wholesale Price India Pigeon Peas Lentils 7.5 US$/ton Brazil Trade Margin (on $600FOBvalue) 14 US$/ton InternationalTrade Margin (on $360FOBValue) 114 US$/ton Sea Freight from Paranaguato Mumbai 54 US$/ton Truck Freight from MT to Paranagua 40:60 Cost to MarginRatio for Lentils & Pigeon Peas achievable Wholesale prices for Lentils & Pigeon Peas are average wholesale prices (Jan-15 to Dec-16), Govt. of India. http://agricoop.nic.in/sites/default/files/Pulses.pdf Fromproduction(Brazil)toWholesaleMarket(India) Margin over the Wholesale price India
  • 51. Considering countries other than India, Brazil is the world’s 4th largest pulses producer Top 10 after India (Mton) Source - FAOSTAT
  • 52. BEANS & COWPEAS (FEIJAO) are the pulses consumed in huge scale in Brazil • Brazilians eat RICE and BEANS ALMOST EVERY DAY. It is their staple diet, since the cereal and the leguminous are highly complementary, bringing almost all the major nutrients when they are consumed altogether. • Rice was introduced by the portuguese in 16th century. Beans were already consumed by the indigenous, with cassava flour. The MOST consumed bean in Brazil is type PINTO bean In Brazil, Pinto Bean is called Feijão CARIOCA (Phaseolus vulgaris) POOR MIDDLE CLASS RICH
  • 53. BEANS & COWPEAS (FEIJAO) are the pulses consumed in huge scale in Brazil The SECOND most consumed bean in Brazil is type BLACK Feijão Preto. Brazilian make Feijoada (black bean cooked with pig meat), very famous in Brazil and abroad. (Phaseolus vulgaris) POOR MIDDLE CLASS RICH
  • 54. BEANS & COWPEAS (FEIJAO) are the pulses consumed in huge scale in Brazil The THIRD consumed bean in Brazil is type FRADIÑIO bean. However, it is the MOST EXPORTED brazilian pulse so far, and has become the SECOND most produced pulse in the country. Feijão Fradinho = Feijão de Corda = Feijão CAUPI CAUPI is the portuguese translation from COW PEA. Since the high similarity with beans, the Brazilian PRODUCERS, CONSUMERS AND GOVERNMENT treat COWPEA as it was a BEAN, even though COW PEA (Vigna unguiculata) is not a bean POOR MIDDLE CLASS RICH
  • 55. Cowpea’s ACARAJEH is very traditional from Bahia state coast: it is famous national & internationally
  • 56. CONAB: Brazilian major source of estimation data for grain production & export http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/17_08_10_11_27_12_boletim_graos_agosto_2017.pdf • Conab is the Federal Agency for Food Supply. • They make a montly follow-up on brazilian production, imports and exports for major brazilian grains, throghout collaboration of several state food supply agencies which collect interviews from thousands of agro producers. • This follow-up report is the major reference of Brazilian production for farmers, commodity operators, fertilizer & machinery suppliers, banks, stock exchange and several other governamental institutions. • The data in next slides come from the last updating report we have found, which is from AUGUST 2017. • The original report can be found at the link in the bottom of this and next pages. • Even though the report is in portuguese, the data tables are intelligible for English speakers.
  • 57. COWPEAS are grown as rotation crop at industrial-scale soybean farms, which have 3 HARVESTS A YEAR Beans + Cowpea crops FIRST HARVEST Beans + Cowpea crops SECOND HARVEST Beans + Cowpea crops 1ST + 2ND + 3RD HARVEST NOTE: regions over the Amazon are family scale farming http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/17_08_10_11_27_12_boletim_graos_agosto_2017.pdf Region’s production (ton/y) 200 – 1,000 1,001 – 10,000 10,001 – 20,000 20,001 – 43,200 Region’s production (ton/y) 200 – 1,000 2,001 – 5,000 5,001 – 10,000 10,001 – 22,369 Region’s production (ton/y) 200 – 2,000 2,001 – 10,000 10,001 – 30,000 30,001 – 90,000
  • 58. Beans and cowpea production OVER THE 3 ANNUAL HARVESTS http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/18_03_13_14_15_33_grao_marco_2018.pdf
  • 59. Beans and cowpea production OVER THE 3 ANNUAL HARVESTS http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/18_02_08_17_09_36_fevereiro_2018.pdf Harvest Initial stocks + Production + Imports = Total supply || - Consumption - Exports = Final stocks Supply and demand for Bean & Cowpea • The official estimation for pulses EXPORTS in 2017 and 2018 is 125,000 ton. • However, almost 100% of brazilian exports of beans concerns to cowpea, and not beans (reminding that for brazilian common sense, cowpea is only one kind of bean). Note: data sources from march 2018
  • 60. Sources: FAO, Conab Brasil, State of indian agriculture 2015-16, INCRA Brasil Holdings pattern in Brazil Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) and Bahia (BA) are the major Soya bean producing states having large irrigated plantations. Therefore, they are good candidates for plantations of pulses as well… 5.5 M Farms / 600 M ha available crop area. Average farm area in Brazil is 100.0 ha. In Mato Grosso state, single properties as large as 5,000 ha are common. Brazil India 140 M Farms / 160 M ha available crop area Average farm area in India is 1.0 ha, and is decreasing further. …so high concentration of land in Brazil makes commercial farming significantly more viable. km 200 600 1200 1800 MT MS BA MA PI TO http://www.conab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/ 17_02_16_11_51_51_boletim_graos_fevereiro_2017.pdf Brazil regions for Soyabean Industrial-scale farms make world-class farming significantly more viable in Brazil than in India
  • 61. 6,532 large farms in Brazil have more than 9,000 hectares in average http://www.incra.gov.br/sites/default/files/uploads/estrutura-fundiaria/estat-sticas-de-im-veis-rurais-/brasil_cadastro_imoveis_rurais_geral_pub_e_priv.pdf - Due to regional differences, the federal agency for land ownership - INCRA - has established a system for land measure called Fiscal Module – MF. Each municipality has its own value (in hectares) for the MF. The table below brings the average MF for EACH STATE: Under the national average, 100 MF is equal to 3,780 ha. Brazil has 6,532 large farms (more than 100 MF). They combine a total area of 61.1 M ha. That results an average of 9,365 ha for each of those 6,532 large farms. Size Levels # of properties Sum of Area (ha)
  • 62. 1,094 large farms in Mato Grosso State (MT) have almost 15,000 hectares in average http://www.incra.gov.br/sites/default/files/uploads/estrutura-fundiaria/estat-sticas-de-im-veis-rurais-/cadastro_imoveis_rurais_mt_geral_pub_e_priv.pdf - Due to regional differences, the federal agency for land ownership - INCRA - has established a system for land measure called Fiscal Module – MF. Each municipality has its own value (in hectares) for the MF. The table below brings the average MF for EACH STATE: Under the MATO GROSSO average, 100 MF is equal to 8,360 ha. Mato Grosso has 1,094 large farms (more than 100 local MF). They combine a total area of 16.1 M ha. That results an average of 14,728 ha for each of those 1,094 large farms. Size Levels # of properties Sum of Area (ha)
  • 64. GOIAS and MINAS GERAIS states: irrigation systems
  • 65. MATO GROSSO: leguminous harvest in industrial scale
  • 66. Rondonopolis: Logistical hub in Mato Grosso state http://transporteemfoco.com.br/noticia/1710/rondonopolis-tem-o-trecho-mais-movimentado-de-mato-grosso In the 2015/16 leguminous harvest, Rondonopolis received ~6,000 cargo trucks a day . Considering 13% production growth in 2016/17 in MT, one can estimate almost 6,750 trucks a day (average 40 ton each = 270,000 ton per day in 2017 at MT alone).
  • 67. 67 Lentils: US$880 / ha Pigeon Pea: US$533 / ha Soya Bean: US$630 / ha Corn: US$523 / ha 90% of Lentils imports come from Canada, followed by Australia and US leading to overdependence on Canada and leaving the prices at their mercy – there is no other reliable source for the Indian govt – Brazil becomes a strategic way out for this. Lentils are perfectly adaptable for large scale mechanized farming. The only other large potential country apart from current exporters is Brazil. Average farm size in Brazil is 100 hectares & farms more than 5000 ha are common in state of Mato Grosso. High yields up to 2.2 Tons per Hectares are possible in Brazil. 45% from Myanmar, followed by Tanzania, Mozanbique – govt has tried to diversify sourcing for Tur and the recent act of the PM to sign an MoU with the Mozambique govt for 100,000 Tons of Tur is an indication for the same. Due to a tall plant (200-300 cm) and thick stem, mechanized farming is very difficult, thus requiring manual labour. The plant stands permanently like coffee, so no crop rotation is possible. This come as lower interest for the Brazilian style of farming. Yields in India are as low as 600-800 kg per hectare. Tur growers in Brazil (meant for cattle feed) claim they have achieved productivity of not more than 1000 kg/ha. Moreover, no research on seed assimilation for Tur has been done in Brazil so far. Tur for the future: IARI has started developing a new variety that can give 2000 kg per ha* and is a short crop, thus ideal for mechanized farming & crop rotation possible. Officially seeds would come out by 2018 LENTILS (masoor) PIGEON PEA (tur) Gross Margin profitablity achieved * http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/end-to-dal-woes-scientists-breed-high-yield-super-arhar-variety/ Why Lentils today? Why Pigeon Peas tomorrow?
  • 68. • Similar, yet points of departure • Value based, collaborative but not exploitative • Open and transparent, patient and perseverant Culturally, Indian Companies are Cultural similarities between India and Brazil
  • 69. 1. Brazil is world’s #1 surplus in agro trade, due to largest availability of land &water, plus cutting edge agro-technologies. Land concentration makes world-class farming more viable in Brazil than India, who lacks land and water very seriously. 2. India intense and steady economic growth highlights high potentials for its agro exports (rice, bovine meat, cotton, fisheries) as much for its agro imports (sugar and pulses). 3. Brazil is a major agro-food exporter of soya bean and corn (world 2nd), sugar and coffee (world 1st). Brazil ranks 5th in pulses production, but with no significant exports on pulses so far. 4. India is the 4th largest agriculture commodity importer from Brazil... almost only for sugar, but India is as much important to the Brazilian agro trade as Germany or USA. 5. India is already Brazil’s largest pulses exports destination (66%) with a huge growth potential, due to pulses imports in India is under constant growth, reaching more than 26% of national consumption in 2015. 6. Current Brazilian cost structure is able to generate up to 50% margin across the value chain (kidney bean & cow pea), whereas, lentil & pigeon pea have a potential to give ~60% margin across the value chain. 7. Pulses imports under reliable prices in the long run are highly strategic issues to India for food security and inflation control. Lentil represented the 2nd largest pulses imports in India in 2015 (25%). 8. Lentil presents a lucrative trading opportunity for traders into the Indian market, as well as gives the best gross margin returns in farming in Brazil (40% more than Soya bean). 9. Therefore, lentil production in Brazil for export to India is the best-case-scenario for Brazilian farmers, India’s food security concerns and also for Indian traders. Conclusions
  • 70. • Acayos has its on warehouse area at 50 km from São Paulo city (Vinhedo city). Since 2005, the services concentrate on logistics providing, beyond consultancy & brokerage on foreign trade. • Competences on heavy-weight international logistics: mining, agribusiness and wind turbine’s blades. • Its founder has travelled the country for years, for several fieldwork services for the Brazilian railway corporations: operations research, field evaluation, planning, construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure and machinery. • As a result, he is one of the 3 co-authors of the most detailed Brazilian railway network map. • Another result is an strong knowledge and relationships concerning to Brazil’s largest suppliers of agricultural and mineral commodities, trading companies and major national and international logistics providers. • These long-lasting fieldwork and relationships have conducted us to the brokerage on sugar and soya bean, and to the learning of the production processes for soya bean within largest farmers in Mato Grosso state (Brazil’s major producer). • Acayos team consists on technicians, agronomists and farmers experienced in diverse cultures. • Standing with a reliable & competent company as Acayos is critical to develop investments in Agribusiness in Brazil. Gonzalez @ acayosagro.com.br Viterbo @ acayosagro.com.br We are open to partnerships – in trading or production 70 Why Acayos ?
  • 71. Carlos Gonzalez, 56 • Experience in logistics for agricultural commodities since the age of 18, on sales of crops from the agricultural cooperatives at Brazilian midwest to the ports of Santos and Paranaguá • Experience in logistics in road, rail, fluvial and long course - the latter including all customs clearance and international freight • Worked for Ferronorte logistics demand studies and implementation of rail terminals and warehouse (silos) • Founder of Acayos Logistics and Acayos Agro. • 15 years of consulting for agricultural groups, advising in routes and construction of 74 silos for grains price hedging • Recent works focused on agribusiness, from the maintenance of agricultural machinery and operation of farms (outsourcing of preparation, planting, spraying and harvesting), and completing the value chain with commodities’ brokerage and logistics Jean Carlo Viterbo – MSc., 42 • Bachelor in Business Administration, FGV Brazil; Specialization in Renewable Energy, UniKassel Germany; Master of Science in Naval Eng., USP Brazil; Specialization in Exponential Techs., Singularity University, Nasa Ames & Google, Silicon Valley USA • Director at the Brazil India Chamber of Commerce • Strategy Director at Acayos Agro Ltd • Strategy Director at CRIVEX Imp. & Exp. Ltd • Former Head of Strategy Americas, International Dialogue Advisors. Corporate Diplomacy from Europe & Brazil to deal with the European and the Brazilian Parliaments • Evaluation of the competitiveness of Brazilian-borne ship machinery supply chain the for Oil & Gas Industry • Engineering and institutional assessment to promote new export routes for soya beans throughout Amazon waterways • Consultant in wind energy and agroenergy (pellets and biodiesel). First Brazilian to research on the matter of Offshore Wind Energy Why Acayos ?