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TOC Americas 2016 | Cancun
The document discusses the significant increase in world population and food production since 1960, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in food supply chains and agricultural production. Key points include Brazil's influence in the global meat market, the demand for soybeans, and the impact of China's social inclusion plan on meat production. Additionally, it examines Brazil's trade dynamics and infrastructure developments essential for meeting international demand.
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TOC Americas 2016 | Cancun
- 2. World population: Development& Consequences World population has increased by133%since 1960, while food production has gone up237%in the same period.Main reasons: Rural migration tourbanareas; Improved Life expectancy; Arise in Income; Inefficiencies/waste in Supply chain between producer andconsumer: Source: FAO-FoodOutlook (2014) World Production of select Basic Foodstuffs (mmt) Commodity Avg 61-63 Avg 09-11 % Growth Wheat 253.3 678.8 188 Maze 210.0 853.1 306 Rice 225.8 705.0 212 Soybean 27.4 250.3 814
- 3. Source: USDA 0 20 40 60 80 100 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 0 20 40 60 80 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 Global MeatProduction - million tons Ranking2016 Mt 1º USA 18,5 2º Brazil 13,6 3º China 12,7 4º EuropeanUnion 10,8 5º India 4,2 Ranking2016 Mt 1º China 53,5 2º EuropeanUnion 23,2 3º USA 11,3 4º Brazil 3,6 5º Russia 2,7 Ranking2016 Mt 1º USA 11,3 2º Brazil 9,6 3º EuropeanUnion 7,7 4º China 6,8 5º India 4,3 CAGR (1960-2016)3,1% CAGR (1960-2016)7,1% CAGR (1960-2016)1,6% 2016 109,3 MT 2016 89,7 MT 2016 59,0 MT Economics & Data Science Economics & Data Science Economics & Data Science Source: USDA Source: USDA Pork (263g) Chicken (575g) Bovine (173g) Source: Hostle and Boihuls Quantity(ingrams)ofSoybean usedper Kgofmeat: • Chinais the biggest meat producer in the world • USA&Brazil have grains tofeed their animals; • China& European Union need toimport grains; • IMPORTANT: With less than 3% ofthe World’s population, Brazil accounts for 11% ofmeat production! How doesthe world consume soybean?
- 4. Economics & DataScience 8,9% 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Estados Unidos Outros Argentina Paraguai Brasil Soybeans: Main Exporters 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Japão Outros EU México China 3,2% Soybeans : Main Importers Soybean Supply & Demand Source: USDA Source: USDA Economics & Data Science 4,5% 1,9% 13% 2,7% The Chinese government’s social inclusion plan intends to lift 440 million people out of poverty by 2022, which will lead for instance to an additional production of 785,774 bovine per year if each of this new consumers eat 1kg ofmeat per year.
- 5. 554 60 38 198 This growth inproduction will come from the: Convertion of degradedpastures into cropland; Intensification of landuse in livestock; (Bovine feedlot and supplementing pasture); Integration of Crop-Livestock-Planted Forest; Useof new technologies: seeds, fertilizers andequipment for planting andcropping. Land use in Brazil: we have it all!
- 6. Infrastructure neededto meetChinese demand North Arch New highwaysprojeted/in construction Newrailways projeted/in construction New waterways projeted/in construction Existing highways Exisiting railways Existing waterways New agricultural frontiers
- 7. CAGR1995-2015 TOTAL 7,9% • DeepSea 6,8% • Cabotage 13,3% Mkt Share 2010/ 2015 •Deep Sea 84%/ 74% •Cabotage 16%/ 26% Moviment of containers in Brazil (Boxes) Elaboratedby SOLVE|Source:Antaq
- 8. The exchange rateis boosting manufactured exports Exchange rate (R$/US$) (Monthly average) Source: MDIC-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Aug-01 May-02 Feb-03 Nov-03 Aug-04 May-05 Feb-06 Nov-06 Aug-07 May-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 May-11 Feb-12 Nov-12 Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 Exportações Importações Saldo Comercial 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 Aug-01 May-02 Feb-03 Nov-03 Aug-04 May-05 Feb-06 Nov-06 Aug-07 May-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 May-11 Feb-12 Nov-12 Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 TradeBalance Source: BCB Due to a favorable exchangerate, segmentssuch as Pulp& Paper,Plywood, Autoparts, Textiles, Footwearetc, have recordedsignifcant growth and this has ledto the a changein our Trade Balancesince Feb.15, takingit backto its position beforethe 2008International Crisis. Economics & Data Science Economics & Data Science
- 9. Brazil is alsoan important global suplier of: WorldwideExport Leadership OrangeJuice Coffee Sugar Ethanol Source:CNA 82% ofexports 57%ofGlobalProduction 28% ofexports 37%ofGlobalProduction 45% ofexports 2%ofGlobalProduction 17% ofexports 26%ofGlobalProduction
- 10. New patterns inthe shipping industry -Brazil Santa Class / 7.100teu Aliança Santos / 2.500teu Biggest Vessel # Regular Services CABOTAGE+FEEDER +MERCOSUL 7 Nominal Capacity 10.000 DEEPSEA 37 112.000 New Cap San / 9.600teu Vicente Pinzon / 4.800teu 7 15.200 21 111.000 Whilethe DeepSea services have remainedstablein termsofcapacity, Cabotageservices havegrown, especially asa Feeder service. Biggest Vessel # Regular Services Nominal Capacity Source:SOLVE In addition,withless calls per week, competitionincontainer terminals hasintensified
- 11. 12.2 10.5 11.0 11.3 12.7 14.3 12.5 13.9 16.4 14.5 17.0 17.0 20.0 16.5 17.0 18.0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Draft limitation forvessels over 300m of LOA (≈9.000teu) Source:SOLVE
- 12. New challenges areaffecting current performance Elaboratedby SOLVE|Source:Antaq Terminalsincreasing volumes areinvariablytheonescapableofhandlingthe biggest vessels, while others arejust struggling tosurvive!!!
- 13. Brazil: Bigpicture! International TradeRanking2015 •25thposition onworldwide Export ranking(1,2%) •25thposition onworldwide Import ranking(1,1%) International Trade Growth 2014x 2015 •World: -13% •Brazil Export: -15,1% •Brazil Import: -25,2%
- 14. When analyzing exportinvolumes • Contraryto what is depicted, Brazilian Maritime Export volume grewby11% in the 1H/16; •Grains pulled the average upwith its growth of 31%in the 1H/16; • Accordingto a recent information fromWTO, Brazil recorded the highest export growth in terms of volume in the 1H/16; … and at the end of the day, volume is what really matters for investments in logistics!!!
- 15. Opportunities aboundin: Grain terminalsinthe north Railways Waterways Modern Container terminalsin the South/Southeast Highways Fertilizerterminals Grain Warehouses Reefer Warehouses Cabotage Etc etc etc Dredging
- 16.