Latin America - agriculture outsourcing provider for India

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- India's population is projected to grow significantly by 2050, which will increase food demand and likely make India a net food importer. - Latin America, particularly Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, represents an opportunity for India to outsource some of its agricultural production due to factors like available land, water resources, infrastructure and political stability. - Key advantages of Latin America include lower production costs, higher yields, established value chains, proximity to ports and a trade bloc with few trade barriers. This makes it an immediate opportunity for Indian agricultural outsourcing compared to other regions like Africa.

Business

Latin America – India’s Agricultural Outsourcing Provider Dave Ramaswamy Allied Venture [email_address]

Impact on Food Consumption? Population projections (In millions) 2005 2025 2050 India 1130 1431 1613

Demand side – India will become a net food importer Source: WorldwatchInstitute.

World Population Growth, in Billions Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

India – Projected Supply/Demand Gap Source: Surabhi Mittal, ICRIER

From pumping 4-6 hrs daily with free electricity

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We’ve seen this movie before in urban India

6X size of India with Less than ½ the population Latin America Brazil Argentina Uruguay Paraguay

World Water Resources versus World Water Depletion Source: World Mapper

PAR: BRA: URU: ARG: IND: 56k 45k 40k 21k 2k Total Annual Renewable Water Resources(TARWR) Cu.MT/Year/Capita

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Agriculture Value Chain - The Soybean Example in Uruguay Total Cost of Production to farmer: Includes seeds, fertilizers, agrochemicals, fuel, service providers (for planting, harvesting and spraying). Includes management costs. Farmer Profit before taxes: Transport Costs (including transport’s p rofits) . Port & Elevator Costs (including their p rofits) . ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay) share of world exports

Agribusiness in LatAm is like IT in India

In Africa, risks of many ‘Singurs’ occuring Source: UN Population Database Population growth (in millions) - 2005 to 2050 2005 2025 2050 Argentina 39 46 51 Brazil 186 214 218 Uruguay 3 4 4 Paraguay 6 8 10 Ethiopia 75 120 174 Kenya 36 58 85 Tanzania 39 67 109 Madagascar 18 28 43 Mozambique 21 32 44 Senegal 57 91 133 Sudan 39 57 76

Also less water per capita compared to LatAm Source: Aquastat TARWR/ m3/percapita/year Argentina 20,940 Ethiopia 1,680 Brazil 45,470 Kenya 930 Uruguay 40,420 Tanzania 2,420 Paraguay 55,830 Madagascar 18,830 India 1,750 Mozambique 11,320 Sudan 1,880

Latin America is an immediate opportunity Latin America Africa Buy/Lease Land Yes No (lease only) Service Providers (planting/spraying etc.) Yes No Qualified Manpower Yes No Political Risk (low populations, democracies, corruption etc.) Low High Tested high yield crop/seed varieties Yes No

Almost “Free land” in Africa: Maintaing a gift elephant is not free Note: Numbers based on median Latin American land conversion rates to convert raw land to agriculture ready land. Africa figures could be higher/

Agricultural Land in MERCOSUR (in ‘000 hectares) Land area Agricultural area Arable land and Permanent crops POTENTIAL Argentina 273669 133350 33500 60,000 Brazil 845942 263500 66500 120,000 Paraguay 39730 20400 4400 8,000 Uruguay 17502 14683 1383 4,000 Total 1176843 431933 105783 192000

Best time to plant a tree…was 20 yrs ago

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Latin America - agriculture outsourcing provider for India

1. Latin America – India’s Agricultural Outsourcing Provider Dave Ramaswamy Allied Venture [email_address]

2. The South is the new North

3. Impact on Food Consumption? Population projections (In millions) 2005 2025 2050 India 1130 1431 1613

4. Demand side – India will become a net food importer Source: WorldwatchInstitute.

5. Betting on billions of samosas eaten

6. World Population Growth, in Billions Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

7. India – Projected Supply/Demand Gap Source: Surabhi Mittal, ICRIER

8. When Supply side is gloomy…

9. With Falling water tables in N. India

10. From pumping 4-6 hrs daily with free electricity

11. Water bomb ready to go off

12.

13. We’ve seen this movie before in urban India

14. Scenario will move to rural India

15. AGRICULTURE OUTSOURCING

16. 6X size of India with Less than ½ the population Latin America Brazil Argentina Uruguay Paraguay

17.

18. Knowledge Generation

19. World Water Resources versus World Water Depletion Source: World Mapper

20. PAR: BRA: URU: ARG: IND: 56k 45k 40k 21k 2k Total Annual Renewable Water Resources(TARWR) Cu.MT/Year/Capita

21.

22.

23. Resting on a strong Foundation

24. Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay) share of world exports

25. Agribusiness in LatAm is like IT in India

26. Case Study: Olam

27. LatAm vs Africa Brazil Ethiopia

28. In Africa, risks of many ‘Singurs’ occuring Source: UN Population Database Population growth (in millions) - 2005 to 2050 2005 2025 2050 Argentina 39 46 51 Brazil 186 214 218 Uruguay 3 4 4 Paraguay 6 8 10 Ethiopia 75 120 174 Kenya 36 58 85 Tanzania 39 67 109 Madagascar 18 28 43 Mozambique 21 32 44 Senegal 57 91 133 Sudan 39 57 76

29. Also less water per capita compared to LatAm Source: Aquastat TARWR/ m3/percapita/year Argentina 20,940 Ethiopia 1,680 Brazil 45,470 Kenya 930 Uruguay 40,420 Tanzania 2,420 Paraguay 55,830 Madagascar 18,830 India 1,750 Mozambique 11,320 Sudan 1,880

30. Latin America is an immediate opportunity Latin America Africa Buy/Lease Land Yes No (lease only) Service Providers (planting/spraying etc.) Yes No Qualified Manpower Yes No Political Risk (low populations, democracies, corruption etc.) Low High Tested high yield crop/seed varieties Yes No

31. Almost “Free land” in Africa: Maintaing a gift elephant is not free Note: Numbers based on median Latin American land conversion rates to convert raw land to agriculture ready land. Africa figures could be higher/

32. Other Latin American advantages

33.

34.

35.

36. Agricultural Land in MERCOSUR (in ‘000 hectares) Land area Agricultural area Arable land and Permanent crops POTENTIAL Argentina 273669 133350 33500 60,000 Brazil 845942 263500 66500 120,000 Paraguay 39730 20400 4400 8,000 Uruguay 17502 14683 1383 4,000 Total 1176843 431933 105783 192000

37.

38. Investment Opportunities

39. Contract Farming

40. Oilseed crushing

41. Biofuels Palm Oil Ethanol Co-generation

42. Pulses

43. Food Processing

44. Best time to plant a tree…was 20 yrs ago

45. Second best time is now!

46.

47. www.alliedventure.com http://induslatin.com We are at your service!

Editor's Notes

Will feed more people in next 40 years then all of history
Will feed more people in next 40 years then all of history
Land per capita is shrinking – 1 to 1.5 acres, 0.3 hectares Malincentives Farming is a terrible business – 45% want to quit farming, middle class nightmare Increasing cost of land - $20,000+ acre, 10 to 100 acres, illegal corp farming, land ceiling act
Need some figures for this slide What is land per capita? Cost of average farm Water resources Can add 3 slides here – see the LatAm charts I sent out earlier.
Climate Change – glaciers Damming the Brahmaputra Water table is falling – NASA image, water table
100 million hectares being farmed. 170-200 million hectares can be brought online Soya, - USDA projections Sugar, Oilseeds, Fruits, Dairy, Milk Grow the pie, not compete with Indian farmers, Non zero sum game
Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay – plenty of arable land Closer to India than California Brazil – 3X India pop of U.P., Uttaranchal Argentina - ~India, pop of Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta Uruguay - ~Karnataka, pop 1/2 Bangalore
Rainfall Land - $200 to $2000 acre Technology Knowledge Creation Talent Free market
US trained agronomists and agriculturists Collaboration with Indian scientists, especially in Africal South-South cooperation
10 to 30 times fresh water as India Mehta Joke, Water, play We could use all the water we can get
Respected profession Specialized providers in the value chain – planting, spraying, harvesting, logistics, management company Ecosystem – universities, research, can compete with best in the world Scale massively Entrepreneur-driven Export driven and world-competitive without subsidies
Respected profession Specialized providers in the value chain – planting, spraying, harvesting, logistics, management company Ecosystem – universities, research, can compete with best in the world Scale massively Entrepreneur-driven Export driven and world-competitive without subsidies
Farmers selling land at high prices should utilize some of the sale proceeds to consider owning shares in a South American farming company that will acquire land and start farming Nestle, Danone, Cargill, Dreyfus, Kraft, Unilever Easier than you think it is.

Latin America - agriculture outsourcing provider for India

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Editor's Notes