This is a presentation by Professor Raimund Bleischwitz at the Global Trends and Implications for British Security Conference.

1. Input
into
Session
Five
(b)
Resources
and
the
Environment
Prof.
Dr.
Raimund
Bleischwitz
BHP
Billiton
Chair
in
Sustainable
Global
Resources
Global
Trends
and
Implica?ons
for
Bri?sh
Security
9
October
2014
Royal
United
Services
Ins?tute,
Whitehall,
London

2. Hotspots
of
Resource
Conflicts
China Seas
River Issues in Asia
The Nile
Source: Transatlantic Academy 2012
Ukraine

3. Low
Risk
but
Relevant
Eastern
Mediterranean
• Morocco,
Saudi
Arabia
and
others
to
agree
on
a
Phosporus
–
OPEC?
South Atlantic
Greenland

4. Common
Features
of
Resource
Conflicts
• Powerful
states
(Geopowers)
define
certain
resources
as
strategic
interests
and
pursue
‚gunboat‘
diplomacy,
don‘t
engage
in
agreements
or
collabora?ons
or
transboundary
governance
structures
• Fragile
or
failing
states
under
social
unrest,
with
possible
elements
of
fundamentalism,
terrorism,
organized
crime,
etc.
• Environmental
issues
as
threat
mul?pliers

5. The
Resource
Nexus
…and
intersecFons
with
environmental
change:
1) Global
drivers
can
become
more
important
than
local
drivers
in
systems
such
as
river
basins,
agriculture,
and
regional
economies.
2) Increasing
connec?vity
allows
local
turbulences
to
spread
farther
and
faster
Case:
Arab
Spring
CASE
:
China,
an
export-­‐oriented
economy
–
needs
energy
–
dam
building
–
increases
demand
for
materials
–
changes
water
management
–
worries
downstream
neighbors

6. The
Resource
Nexus
on
the
Ground:
Environmental
and
Human
Security

7. A
new
Resource
Curse?

8. Countries
at
Risk
–
EssenFal
Suppliers
Three
Layers:
1. Likely
Food
and
Water
Stress
(FAO/
IPCC)
2. Poli?cal
Instability
(FPFSI)
3. Mineral
Reserves
(USGS)
• Ca
15
Countries
at
high
risk
• Ca
30
Countries
at
relevant
risk
Source:
Bleischwitz/Johnson/Dozler
2013

9. The
wider
risks
of
„a
perfect
storm“
Get
prepared
for
‚expect
the
unexpected‘
developments,
where
resources
and
the
environment
intersect
with
socio-­‐economic
+
poli?cal
dynamics:
– Important
suppliers
struggle
with
a
food
and
water
crisis.
Social
unrest
causes
breakdowns
in
supply.
– Regions
with
nuclear
weapons
become
ungovernable
– World
shipping
faces
large-­‐scale
piracy
along
choke
points
– Geopoli?cal
powers
chose
military
op?ons

10. Riding
out
a
perfect
storm
• Risks
and
threats
from
resources
and
the
environment
are
serious
(“Resource
Nexus”)
• Preven?ve
strategies
encompass
resource
efficiency,
value
chain
management,
raw
material
partnerships
(enriched
by
eco-­‐innova?on
&
environmental
coopera?on):
make
UK
manufacturers
and
consumers
more
resilient
• Interna?onal
collabora?ons
may
start
with
monitoring
and
assessments,
should
comprise
foresight
analysis
and
a
risk
radar,
full
support
for
transparency
and
combahng
tax
havens.
• Possible
ini?a?ve:
to
establish
a
resource
nexus
forum
for
major
countries
(‘R
30’)
and
stakeholders
• Keep
all
op?ons
open

11. Thank
you
and
take
a
look
at:
r.bleischwitz@ucl.ac.uk
www.bartlem.ucl.ac.uk/sustainable
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