Peter Roberts
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This is a presentation delivered by Peter Roberts, at the RUSI International Sea Power Conference 2014
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Peter Roberts
- 1. RUSI Research: Sea Power Programme Peter Roberts Programme Director
- 2. Aim • The aim of the Sea Power and Maritime Studies Programme is to: – Apply the best international naval and maritime expertise to contemporary geo-political issues relating to and from the sea in order to enable informed discussion by policy and strategic decision makers, and – Perform the Challenge/Red Team function to those making policy about issues related to and from the sea. – Understand where RUSI and Europe can add value, not just take part in the debate. Demonstrate that hard won knowledge has utility in western Pacific. • Signpost future procurement and business decisions in Asia.
- 4. Lines of activity • Geo-Political, • Legal, • Contemporary History and Analysis of Naval Warfare, • Economics, and • Technology, underpinned by • Information transfer.
- 5. Naval Geo-politics • In partnership with King’s College London • Project lead: Dr Alessio Patalano • Activities: – Naval Geo-Politics of the Western Pacific. – Europe’s part in Asian maritime challenge. • Outputs: – Articles (2014), – Published book (2015), – Policy game (2016) • Linkages to partners in East Asia. • Access for RUSI.
- 6. International Maritime Legal Challenges • In partnership with University of Greenwich. • Project lead: Professor Steven Haines. • Activities: – The Influence of Law on Grand and Maritime Strategy. – Re-assessing the doctrine of Mare Clausem. • Outputs: – Articles (2015) – an international view of Chinese approach to UNCLOS – Published Volume (2016) • The global scholarly network. • The Grand Strategy view.
- 7. Contemporary Naval Warfare • RUSI lead, in co-operation with USNWC Rhode Island. • Dr Martin Murphy. • Activities: – To codify the experience outside the west of naval warfare. – To examine potential future naval warfare, transferring that experience to regional engagements. • Outcomes: – Book (2015) • The network: Global thinktanks and scholars. • The experiences.
- 8. Economic Warfare • The utility of economic warfare as a national/grand strategy in times of conflict. • Aim: to baseline knowledge of economic warfare, primarily from the sea, prior to major decisions in next round of defence reviews. • Activities: – Seminar series. – Workshop/conference. • Outputs: – RUSI Occasional paper. • The building blocks: – Lambert, Planning Armagedon – Stopford, Maritime Economics (3e). – Lloyds Register ‘Global Maritime Trends’. • The timing.
- 9. Technology • Aims: – To understand the nature of technological advances for naval warfare. – To examine the legal, ethical and moral issues related to nano, bio, autonomy and robotics in naval warfare. – To understand whether those scientific developments will change the nature of conflict at sea. • Activities: – Conference (2014-2015) • Outputs: – Briefing papers. – Occasional paper.
- 10. Information • Aims: – Information in Defence – naval applicability. • No Defended Perimeter • A return to Mission Command, Band of Brothers and commanding officers autonomy. – Sharing best practice. • Activities: – Conference. – Seminars, Roundtables, Dinners. • Outputs: – Links to RUSI cyber programme and conference. • Examples: – Dinner with Admiral Mike Mullen. – Roundtables: Richard Sadler, CEO Lloyds Register “Shipping in 2030 and Beyond”, US SOF community, “Naval Special Warfare in 2025”. – Lecture: Vice Admiral Ito Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force, “Japan’s Security Policy” – Staff College Lectures: US Air Warfare College, US NDU, Canadian Staff College, German Joint Staff College, Japanese Staff College. – Roundtables at government level: Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Norway.
- 11. The RUSI Sea Power Research programme • Neither Continentalist nor Maritime outlook: – The experience of others. – The constabulary mindset: maritime security. • Inter-weaving the programme themes, current events and naval practice globally. – Sea based operations, and – A new era of submarine operations in Asia. • RUSI Journal: Maritime themed issue in either February or April 2015. • RUSI International Sea Power Conference 2015. • Sponsorship opportunities.
Editor's Notes
- The geo-politics of the Asia Pacific are shaped by the sea. Yet the difference in the views that countries in the region have towards the sea is poorly understood. The US views and acts in the region in order to maintain the status quo, China does not. Yet are these the only perspectives through which activity in the Pacific rim should be viewed? How do others see it? Europe’s part in is not codified, nor understood in either Europe, Asia or the Americas. Part of the RUSI Sea Power Research Programme, and in partnership with KCL, is undertaking a project to understand and codify the geo-politics of the sea in East Asia. The project will establish a narrative for the rise of China in East Asia, examining the potential friction points that may arise, and where regional states may establish policy ‘red lines’. It seeks to find answers to complex questions that confront policymakers, such as ‘Does China’s peaceful rise require accepting a change to the international order and a policy of appeasement?’ Is there an alternative model? The work will also address long-standing questions posed by China watchers, such as: What are the consequences of a CCP collapse for China, the region and the world in economic, diplomatic and military terms? What effect will domestic political change in China have on the region? How do Chinese policymakers and analysts think about these issues? The research is not aimed at a singular militarised future, rather at providing an alternative backdrop against which nations can play out their potential policy choices to make informed decisions in the future. To that end, there may be opportunities to examine tangential questions which Pacific rim nations are struggling with, like what the future of the Arctic North-West passage may look like in terms of opportunities and challenges.
- The expansionist policies of the China at sea are breaking normative behaviour in the maritime domain counter to accepted legal practices as enshrined in UNCLOS. To understand that behaviour and the challenges it represents, as well as the changing legislative environment, it is critical to codify the level of influence law has on Sea Power as a concept. Given that global inter-dependencies are underpinned by sea-borne trade of goods, national maritime strategies are returning to the forefront of policy making. This project seeks to understand the level of flexibility which governments have in their construct, given the changing legal environment. Without this understanding, there is a significant danger that misinterpretation of legislation could trigger a major conflict with global consequences for trade, economies and nation state survival. Outcomes After more than 300 years of relative benign activity in the realms of International Maritime law, the prevailing doctrine of Mare Liberum is once again being challenged, primarily by China in western Pacific Ocean and associated seas. The debate was last held between 1609 and 1702 by Hugo Grotius and John Selden, and was the baseline for the development of international norms and boundaries that have been unchallenged until the rise of Chinese expansionism in the East and South China Seas. In opening this debate again, it is key to baseline an understanding of the relationship and influence that law has on the concept of sea power, both in a scholarly manner and from a practical perspective in order to inform and codify practices for mariners and policy makers across the world. Activities: Codifying the Chinese position on UNCLOS WRT South China Sea covering the spectrum of hard left to hard right of arc, and effectively mapping what the 9 Dashed Line means for them, with an interpretation about the potential consequences of each interpretation. The book (Ed. Prof Steven Haines). RUSI, in partnership with the University of Greenwich, has agreed with the top international maritime lawyers from across the globe to update the current work on Law and Sea Power. It is forty years since Dan O’Connell’s Melland Schill Lectures and classic book on ‘The Influence of Law on Sea Power’. Much has happened since then, not least the Third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea and the resultant Convention. If O’Connell had lived, he would have had much more to say on the subject in the light of those legal developments, but he would also have had additional things to say about law and sea-power in the post-Cold War period: it is hard to believe that the San Remo Manual project could have proceeded without O’Connell’s involvement. He was uniquely placed as both a very distinguished academic lawyer and an experienced Naval Officer. The project will produce a volume that will serve the purpose of discussing the influence of law on, essentially, navies and sea-power in a manner consistent with the standards of scholarship that O’Connell achieved.
- Group: Think Tanks (RUSI, USNWC, USNPGC, Australian Sea Power Centre) Status: On-going meetings but not formalized yet. Funding: tbc Objectives/areas of study: To understand, contextualize and codify naval warfare since 1982. Nicaragua. Colombia. Sri Lanka. Pakistan marshes. Chile/Peru or Israel. NAID3, A2AD (does this sit within this programme, tech or geo-pol). Theatre Missile Defence and Ballistic Missile Defence. Output: Book ed. Roberts/Murphy through OUP or Hurst. (2016)