This document discusses the relationship between climate change and international security. It examines four aspects of security that may be impacted by climate change: human security, national security, international security, and ecological security. It explores predictions about impacts of climate change like rising sea levels and temperatures. It also analyzes how climate change may fuel conflicts over issues like water and displace large numbers of climate refugees. However, the document concludes that assumptions about "climate wars" are overstated and not supported by reality. International cooperation and complementary legal protections can help manage issues like water disputes and displacement of climate refugees.

2. I.
II.
Predictions
Climate change-security nexus
I.
II.
III.
IV.
III.
Human security
National security
International security
Ecological security
Climate change-foreign policy nexus
I.
II.
III.
State practices
Water wars
Climate change refugees
IV. Are ‘climate wars’ justified?
V.
Conclusions and recommendations

3. Climate Change (CC) &
International Security
 UNSC debates 2007, 2011, UNGA,
2009; UNEP, 2007;UNDP, 2007
 EU, US, UK, Aus, Rus, Fin and Ger.
 Climate change ‘will fuel more
conflicts for decades [Obama,
2009]:
 ARE ‘CLIMATE WARS’ PREDICTIONS
JUSTIFIED, IN LIGHT OF FOREIGN
POLICY PRACTICE?

4. WHAT WILL HAPPEN
IMPACTS
Rising sea
levels, floods, storms, violent and
volatile weather, famine, water
shortages [e.g. IPCC, 2007; The
Economist, 2010]
 Temps. will rise 1.8 - 4o Celsius by
the end of the century, if not
mitigated [ IPCC, 2007]

Uproot
millions
Economist, 2013]
of
people

Fuel conflicts for decades [Obama, 2009]

Chaos and violence
Economist, 2010]

Threats to sovereignty and territorial
integrity [e.g. MacDonald, 2013]

Threats to human, national, international
and ecological security
[Paskal,
[The
The

5.  The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, for example,
provides a summary of how climate change may affect human rights
conferred by different conventions:

6. undermine human security by
reducing access to, and the quality
of natural resources that are
important to sustain livelihoods
(Barnet & Adger, 2007)
threats to human life and dignity;
and threats to the security of
individuals and communities
[MacDonald, 2013]
challenge state responsibility for
providing security to its population
[ibid]
global inequality and poverty to
build individual and community
preparedness and resilience [Brown
&McLeman, 2009]

7. According to MacDonald, 2013:
 present a serious threat to the security and prosperity of nation states.
 The preservation of national sovereignty and territorial boundaries from
internal and external threat is paramount
 The national security establishment must anticipate such threats to
territorial integrity and secure national interests (Brzoska M, 2010)

8.  focuses on internationalism as a response to
CC, and the need for global cooperation.
 The point of reference is the international
community
 lead to resources scarcity & environmental
degradation which will exacerbate social and
political tensions, conflicts and security
problems at the international arena
 response to international security threats
include transition to low carbon economies,
and technology diffusion, expertise and
resources to developing countries to enhance
their adaptive capacities
e.g. Secretary General Moon ; UNEP; UNDP (2007); UNSC
(2007, 2011); UNGA (2009)
IPCC (2007)

9.  there is need to re-establish the
relationship between people and the
natural environment.
 Life on Earth is profoundly affected by
the planet’s climate.
 Animals, plants, and other living beings
around the globe are moving, some,
adapting, and, in some cases, dying as
a direct or indirect result of
environmental shifts .
 to re-orient societal patterns and
behaviour: to rebalance the relationship
between people and their natural
environment, both man-made and
natural.

10.  CC is not only global, but also multidimensional, invisible, unpredictable and
international [Drexhage et al., 2007]
 Military Tool
 Political Tool
 Terrorism
 Development tool
 an issue for preventive diplomacy
 conduct of foreign policy must involve anticipating threshold moments when
latent conflicts may erupt and translate into violence
 impact of climate change is projected to be more pronounced on two main
issues: water and climate refugees [MacDonald, 2013]

11.  ‘water wars’ prediction :countries will wage war to safeguard their access to water
resources, especially if there is water scarcity, competitive use and the countries are
enemies due to a wider conflict [Allam, 2003]
 water is scarce , in constant high demand, straddles political boundaries, its
availability fluctuates in space and time, it has no substitute [Wolf, 1998]
 Middle East region has 5% of the world’s population, but only one percent of the
world’s renewable water resources.
 About 60 percent of the available freshwater is in transboundary basins.
 River Nile, Tigris, and Euphrates river valleys are the main sources of water in the
Middle East(SIWI, 2010).
 Despite depleted water resources and growing water demand pushed by population
growth, international relations over water have, if anything, become less tense since
1970 [Allan, 2002]

13.  Many authors predict that the impact of CC in the near future will
become overwhelming & calls for international law practitioners &
states to formulate policies to deal with CC induced refugees
 especially in fragile states
HOW HAS THE CONDUCT OF FOREIGN POLICY DEALT WITH WATER AND
CLIMATE REFUGEE ISSUES? ARE ‘CLIMATE WARS’ JUSTIFIED?

14. ‘Water
Wars’
 Cooperation
 Preventive diplomacy
 ‘sticky’ legal framework on
international water law

15. Climate Change Refugees:
[Goodwin-Gill. 1996]:
 one must have crossed an international
border;
one must be fleeing persecution;
persecution must be for reasons of race,
religion, nationality, membership of a
particular social group or political
opinion; and
one must be unable or unwilling to the
protection of the country of origin or to
.
return there
 Complementary Protection
 AU & Cartagena Declaration in Latin
America : refugee status can be
granted to people fleeing from ‘events
seriously disturbing the public order’
e.g. Congolese fleeing the eruption of Mount
Nyiragongo in January 2002 sought refuge in
Rwanda
 Trail Smelter Arbitration: United States v
Canada

16.  ‘Water Wars’ are not justified
 Climate refugees can be managed under current state practices
 The assumptions of CC wars are rhetoric - not grounded in reality
 Climate refugees not covered under current refugee law however,
complimentary protection and humanitarian considerations ensure that
there is protection
 Strengthen refugee law to give explicit protection to CC refugees

17. Work cited
Alam, U. Z. (2002), Questioning the water wars rationale: a case study of the Indus Waters Treaty. The Geographical Journal, 168:
341–353
Aljazeera, 2012 ‘Risk of Water Wars Rises with scarcity’ Web. 26 Aug. 2012.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/06/2011622193147231653.html
Allan, J.A. Hydro-Peace in the Middle East: Why no Water Wars? A Case Study of the Jordan River Basin. SAIS Review vol. XXII
no. 2 (Summer–Fall 2002)
Biermann, F. & Boas, I. 2009. Preparing for a warmer world: Towards a Global Governance to Protect Climate Change Refugees.
Global Environmental Politics.10 (1). pp. 60-88.
‘‘Climate Wars,’’ The Economist, July 8, 2010.
Dyer, G. ‘Climate Wars,’ (Toronto: Random House, 2008);
Goodarzi J. “Water Tensions in the Middle East” Webster Security Forum Conference. 8 February 2013
McAdam, J. 2011. Climate Change Displacement and International Law: Complementary Protection Standards. Legal and
Protection Policy Research Series. Division of International Protection. UNHCR
McDonald M. Discourses of Climate Security. Political Geography Vol. 33, pp. 42-51, 2013
Moon, B. A climate Culprit in Darfur: Washington Post, 16th June 2007.
UNEP. Sudan: Post-conflict Environmental Assessment. Nairobi: UNEP.
UNDP. Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World. New York. Palgrave
UNGA. Climate Change and its possible security implications: Report of the Secretary General. New York:
UNGA.
Tertrais, B. “The Climate Wars Myth,” Washington Quarterly, vol. 34, no. 3, Summer 2011, pp. 17–29.