Professor John Louth's presentation at the Air Power Conference 2015

2. Exam QuestionExam Question
• Capability Crossroads: Evolution or
Revolution?Revolution?
– Right Words
– Science to Capability
– Consequences

3. Transformation ModelTransformation Model
Inputs Processes Outputs Outcomes/Effects
People FE@R Controlled Air SpaceTransformationp
Resources
Materials
Know‐how
@ p
Activities

4. Transformation ModelTransformation Model
Economy EffectivenessEconomy Effectiveness
Inputs Processes Outputs Outcomes/Effects
People FE@R Controlled Air SpaceTransformationp
Resources
Materials
Know‐how
@ p
Activities
EfficiencyEfficiency

5. Science to CapabilityScience to Capability
We combat peer state adversaries through our exploitation of S&T...
Allowing the UK to deploy smaller numbers of assets of increasedAllowing the UK to deploy smaller numbers of assets of increased
technological sophistication

6. Govt Sponsorship of S&TGovt Sponsorship of S&T
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Source: Democracy’s Arsenal 2011

7. Commercial Sponsorship of S&TCommercial Sponsorship of S&T
Governments
60
Industries
40
20
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
%
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Source: Democracy’s Arsenal 2011

8. Research, Applied Research and
Development
Research Applied Research/DevelopmentResearch Applied Research/Development
S&T
£400M
Acquisition Programmes/Projects
£16Bn
1.2% £2.5Bn
Dstl

9. Research, Applied Research and
Development
Research Applied Research/DevelopmentResearch Applied Research/Development
UK Def S&T Progs/ProjectsUK Def S&T Progs/Projects
2.5% 97.5%

10. Research, Applied Research and
Development
Research Applied Research/DevelopmentResearch Applied Research/Development
UK Def S&T Progs/ProjectsUK Def S&T Progs/Projects
2.5% 97.5%
Gansler S&T Progs/Projects
15% 85%

11. Research, Applied Research and
Development
Research Applied Research/DevelopmentResearch Applied Research/Development
UK Def S&T Progs/ProjectsUK Def S&T Progs/Projects
2.5% 97.5%
Gansler S&T Progs/Projects
15% 85%
CP S&T Progs/Projects
25% 75%25% 75%

12. ConsequencesConsequences
• S&T and applied research/development ratios
may be suboptimaly p
• Technological advantage may not be the
principal driver of successprincipal driver of success
• Mass/numbers/bulk may still be important

13. Questions