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Professor Steve Roberts
The document discusses applying John Boyd's OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) loop model to sensors and the electromagnetic spectrum. It describes how sensors operate within their own implicit OODA loops to collect information and how that information is then used by platforms and operators within larger explicit OODA loops. The key phase of orientation involves developing shared situation awareness and doctrine to effectively coordinate sensors, platforms and operators. The model emphasizes both the need for rapid action using established implicit loops and the value of experimentation through explicit loops to develop new capabilities and responses to unexpected threats.
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Professor Steve Roberts
- 1. Sensors in FutureAir Applications Steve Roberts VP, Strategy Airborne & Space Systems Division, Selex ES & Visiting Professor in EW Systems Cranfield University & UK Defence Academy 1
- 2. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Air and Space Power Doctrine 2 Control of the Air Offensive Counter-Air (OCA) Defensive Counter-Air (DCA) Active Air Defence Passive Air Defence Intelligence & Situational Awareness Intelligence Surveillance Targeting Reconnaissance Attack Deep Attack Counter-Land Operations Counter-Sea Operations Information Operations Air Mobility Air Lift Air-to-Air Refuelling Airborne Operations Special Air Operations Aerial Delivery Aeromedical Evacuation
- 3. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved 3 SENSE Search Detect Locate & Track ATTACK Target Engage Assess SURVIVE Detection Targeting Engagement ISR Direct Collect Process Disseminate INTEROPERABILITY Co-ordinate Exchange Information CORE Position & Time Crypto Operator Interface System & Data Management Mission & Resource Management ID & ROE Record
- 4. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Selex ES - Airborne & Space Systems Division Key Capabilities • Multi-platform surveillance systems • Sensors and Electronics for fixed and rotary wing • Avionics sub-systems for civil aircraft • Complete, independent UAS capability • Multi-mission, highly realistic training • Earth-observation and positioning systems for satellites 4
- 5. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved SELEX ES Capabilities on Fixed Wing & Rotary Wing Avionics Sensors Computers Cockpit Comms 5
- 6. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved • The electromagnetic spectrum (or EMS) is the domain for collecting information, distributing information and for distorting information – it will also be a means of direct attack – A future conflict could take place without physical contact between opponents – The EMS is congested and contested and must be defended – “Freedom to Manoeuvre” and “Operational Advantage” also apply to the EMS • “Boyd’s OODA Loop (It’s not what you think)” • Chet Richards, J. Addams and Partners, Inc., March 2012 – “A lot has happened since Clausewitz in 1832 and Sun Tzu in 400B.C.” - Boyd – “Doctrine is one small step away from Dogma” - Boyd • Boyd’s OODA models are normally applied to Physical Domains of Land, Sea, Air and Space • Can they be applied for sensors, information and achieving spectrum dominance? What are sensors for and how should we use them? Time to assess the future 6
- 7. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved • OODA is shown as sequential steps – Observe, then – Orient, then – Decide, then – Act • You win by being faster round the loop - “Duelling OODA Loops” - “Quickest decision wins” • BUT – We do not always wait to complete the loop before acting effectively – Sometimes, slowing down creates better effects • What did Boyd actually draw for his OODA diagram? The usual interpretation of OODA OrientObserve DecideAct Commands Information Knowledge Effect 7
- 8. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved The original 4-phase OODA diagram “The essence of winning and losing” - Boyd, J. R. (1996) - Unpublished briefing 8 Boyd put forward other ideas in “Patterns of Conflict” (1986) • “Operate inside opponent’s OODA loops” • “Observe, orient, decide and act more inconspicuously, more quickly, and with more irregularity …” • “Produce a period of shock, confusion, hesitancy until the opponent develops an understanding of what has happened”
- 9. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Boyd’s Diagram - 2015 9 OBSERVE Observations DECIDE (Hypothesis) ACT (Test) Outside Information & Circumstances Implicit Guidance & Control Implicit Guidance & Control Interaction with Environment Feedback Feedback Feed Forward Feed Forward Feed Forward Previous Experience New Information Analysis and Synthesis Cultural Traditions Genetic Heritage ORIENT
- 10. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved The ‘popular’ OODA Loop is still there OBSERVE DECIDE ORIENT ACT Outside Information & Circumstances Interaction with Environment OrientObserve DecideAct Commands Information Knowledge Effect 10
- 11. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Electromagnetic and physical environment Sensors - The root source of Information ES Radar EO • Sensors make measurements and process these to derive information • Information usually released to platform at track or plot level OBSERVE 11
- 12. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved ‘Observe’ - The Internal OODA Process of a Sensor Observe Physical Phenomenon Orientate by Processing Data Decide what to change based on data collected Act by modifying sensor or moving platform Measurements Information Commands OrientObserve DecideAct Commands Information Knowledge Effect 12
- 13. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved The OODA Model applied to a Platform • All sensors and many effectors are operating their own ‘autonomous’ OODA process • The Orientation and Decision element on a platform is human – Often, the human operator must observe the information output from the individual sensors on the platform – Orientation may also require assessment of data from the network Effectors Sensors Platform OrientObserve DecideAct Commands Information Knowledge OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct Information from Network 13
- 14. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Previous Experience New Information Analysis and Synthesis Cultural Traditions Genetic Heritage The ‘Orient’ phase lies at the heart of the OODA concept Orient – The most complex phase OBSERVE DECIDE ORIENT ACT Outside Information & Circumstances Interaction with Environment Implicit Guidance & Control 14
- 15. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved The ORIENT Phase • It is the ‘corporate culture’ • Doctrine and/or Dogma • Also known as: ‘Situation Awareness’ • It shapes the way we understand the situation and the way we react • Must be continuously updated, which relies on a learning process • When all participants are aligned, we have: Common understanding of mission intent & Shared Situation Awareness Analysis and Synthesis Previous Experience New Information Cultural Traditions “Genetic” Heritage 15
- 16. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved The “OO-OO” Loop is not always bad! OBSERVE Observations Outside Information & Circumstances Implicit Guidance & Control Feed Forward Previous Experience New Information Analysis and Synthesis Cultural Traditions Genetic Heritage ORIENT • Experienced observers know when they need more time • Taking extra time is not being passive nor giving up the initiative • Applies to sensors as well as to humans “The 2nd Toyota Paradox: How delaying decisions can make better cars faster” Ward, Liker, Cristiano, Sobeck (1995) 16
- 17. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Taking effective action “Plan what to do in advance” OBSERVE DECIDE ACT Outside Information & Circumstances Implicit Guidance & Control Interaction with Environment ORIENT Previous Experience New Information Analysis and Synthesis Cultural Traditions Genetic Heritage • Implicit Guidance & Control for speed • Self-synchronising, flexible, agile groups achieving the desired effects 17 • Avoid the Formal Decision Phase (if possible) • “A non-aligned group often interacts to create the wrong decision, or take the wrong actions, or act at the wrong time”
- 18. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved EXPLICIT guidance and command The “popular” OODA loop with feedback OBSERVE Observations DECIDE (Hypothesis) ACT (Test) Outside Information & Circumstances Interaction with Environment Feedback Feedback Feed Forward Feed Forward Feed Forward Previous Experience New Information Analysis and Synthesis Cultural Traditions Genetic Heritage ORIENT • Note the use of the words ‘Hypothesis’ and ‘Test’ • Note the feedback paths to the ‘Observe’ phase 18
- 19. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved • The Implicit loops allow us to use our ‘proven repertoire’ – Fastest responses and the ones we have been trained to use • The slower Explicit command and guidance loops are the way we build up the experience and knowledge that allows us to use the faster Implicit loops • The DECISION & ACTION phases in the Explicit loops develop a ‘new repertoire’ – Trials, training and computer-based scenario modelling are the way of building up a set of plausible scenarios, information and a range of ‘hypothetical responses’ – This is an experimental approach, which takes time and needs data to be collected • The ‘D-A’ loops are the heart of Innovation – Investigation to build capability and understanding of the possible scenarios we may face Experimentation using the EXPLICIT loops Developing new ideas, capabilities and doctrine 19 e
- 20. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved The 6 key questions 20
- 21. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved “What if?” should come first! 21 Posing “What if?” questions should be the starting point that allows us to be ready to adapt to the unexpected
- 22. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Known Knowns Known Unknowns R&D Hypotheses and Experimentation The “Unknown Knowns” are the key 22 Unknown Unknowns Donald Rumsfeld, 2002 Time Unknown Knowns The Unknown Knowns Slovoj Zizek – Slovenian Philosopher “What we may not like to know” or “The things we have forgotten” Klein Heidelberg Elephant/Rüssel Fritz-X Counter-stealth? Radio-controlled air vehicles?
- 23. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Chain Home RDF The Transmitter Klein Heidelberg The Receiver System Omni to synchronise with Chain Home Directional Antenna for echoes Klein Heidelberg – Bistatic “hitch-hiker” radar 1943-5 Expect and plan for the unexpected • Ellipse formed by one Klein Heidelberg receiver using signals from one Chain Home transmitter • Accuracy and resolution similar to Chain Home radar • Disrupted by jittering Chain Home signals to break synchronisation Klein Heidelberg – a WW2 bistatic radar system that was decades ahead of its time Klein Heidelberg – the world‟s first modern bistatic radar system‟, IEEE Trans. Aerospace and Electronic Systems Vol.46, No.4, October 2010. Hugh Griffiths and Nicholas Willis 23
- 24. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved • The UAV operates in the Observe and Act parts of the physical and electromagnetic OODA • To maintain our operational advantage in the physical domains, we must protect freedom to manoeuvre in the EMS – We rely on “MOTS” to provide navigation and the connectivity to the UAV – The UAV is inherently “noisy” in the EMS – Some of its sensors are vulnerable to relatively simple counters – Many internet sources refer to “How to kill UAV” • We need to develop “Protection of Information & Bandwidth” – Possibly more important than “Protection of the Platform” What if? – defending UAV 24
- 25. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved What if? We implement NCW in the EMS 25
- 26. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved System of Systems of Sub-Systems • Network bandwidth limits data transfer to ‘information’ level • Limited number of ‘trusted’ systems contributing to network • Some examples of higher bandwidth cross-platform networking exchanging ‘measurement’ level information Sensors and Effectors (Sub-systems) Platforms (Systems) Network (System of Systems) OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct Commands Information Knowledge Effect 26
- 27. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved First level of NCW integration • Proven approach improves quality of information on platform and reduces workload • Key is to retain and share data on platform for collaborative orientation and decision-making – e.g. ‘Directed Search’ and ‘Detection of Intent’ • Additional benefit is that more platforms are able to contribute high quality data to network PlatformSensors OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct Shared Data Orient Decide Information to Platform Information to Network 27
- 28. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Second-level of NCW Integration • Track level data from network would improve sensor operation • Important contribution to the Orientate and Decide phases of OODA – e.g. ‘Dynamic Library’ & ‘Collaborative Sensing’ • Does not impact on bandwidth requirements of network • Currently, there is reluctance to adopt this approach due to fear of ‘data incest’ PlatformSensors Information from Network OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct Observe DecideAct Shared Data Orient Decide Information to Platform Information to Network Information from Network 28
- 29. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Third-level of NCW Integration • Exchange of data between sub-systems on platforms • Enables distributed & diverse sensing and effects – ‘Networked location’ & ‘Co-ordinated sensing and effects’ • Needs higher bandwidth than available on current networks Cross-platform communication PlatformSensors Information from Network OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct Observe DecideAct Shared Data Orient Decide Information to Platform Information to Network Information from Network PlatformSensors Information from Network OrientObserve DecideAct OrientObserve DecideAct Observe DecideAct Shared Data Orient Decide Information to Platform Information to Network Information from Network 29 Implications Meta-data Mega-data Geo-spatial Reference Time Reference Covert datalinks Protocols
- 30. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Example - Typhoon in a network enabled EMS Improved Situational Awareness (Sensor Co-operation) Distributed Sensing Collaborative Effects Co-operative effects Interoperability for Complementary Effects Enhanced Mission Support Interoperability for Force Protection and Effectiveness 30
- 31. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Military Operational Networks 31 Naval Battlegroup UAS GCS Theatre HQ GNSS Communications Satellite Strategic HQ Base Station Strategic UAS Tactical UAS ADS TLB2011 Cyber domain opportunities and vulnerabilities apply not only to traditional network warfare and information warfare, but extend to all aspects of electromagnetic spectrum warfare. The latter encompasses certain aspects of electronic warfare, some of which in turn have close synergies with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and other operations in both the air and space domains. USAF Technology Horizons
- 32. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved Orient Electromagnetic Spectrum & Physics Observe Decide Summary The EMS OODA Model can be used to explore and define Sensor Performance Act Commands Information Knowledge Real World Data World Data World Cognitive World Manoeuvre EW Radar EO/IR EW Weapons Communications & Information networks Decision support Picture compilation Data fusion Mission planning 32
- 33. © 2015 SelexES Ltd – All rights reserved • “Our Strategic Aim is to improve our ability to shape and adapt to unfolding circumstances so that we can survive on our own terms” (Boyd – The Strategic Game – 1987) – This applies to the EMS as well as to physical domains • Operations in the total EMS Domain are often separately managed – Radar, Communications, ISTAR, Electronic Warfare & Cyber, Land, Sea, Air and Space • We must align and orient if we are to protect and dominate the EMS – We need to develop a shared approach to ORIENT all EMS activities – We need to experiment to develop our Implicit responses – We need to record much more meta-data for analysis and synthesis – We need to be ready to deploy or defeat novel ideas quickly Protection of Information & Bandwidth = Protection of Platform & Force Effectiveness Conclusion 33