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3.1 hallegatte world bank
1) Climate-related shocks like droughts, floods, and food price spikes currently push people into poverty and prevent them from escaping it. These shocks will be exacerbated by climate change, potentially pushing over 100 million more people into poverty by 2030. 2) Rapid, inclusive development with policies like universal healthcare, strengthened social protections, climate-smart agriculture, and financial inclusion can prevent most additional poverty due to climate change by 2030. Without such development, over 100 million more people could fall into poverty. 3) Immediate emissions reductions are needed to avoid dangerous long-term climate change that could threaten global poverty reduction goals, even with adaptation. However, mitigation policies should be designed to benefit
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3.1 hallegatte world bank
- 1. Stephane Hallegatte, MookBangalore, Laura Bonzanigo, Marianne Fay, Tamaro Kane, Ulf Narloch, Julie Rozenberg, David Treguer, Adrien Vogt-Schilb Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solutions Area The World Bank Group 1
- 2. Climate-related shocks andstresses, already a major obstacle to poverty reduction, will worsen with climate change Main Message #1 2
- 3.
- 4. Flows into poverty 12%per year Poverty dynamics An example in India (Andhra Pradesh) Non-poor Poor Flows out of poverty 14% per year Net flows 2% per year Drought, irrigation failure, or crop disease involved in 44% of the cases Increasing the flow from 12% to 13% would halve poverty reduction Decreasing the flow from 14% to 13% would halve poverty reduction Weather events keep people poor through asset and human capital destruction Source: Krishna, 2007 4
- 5. Common shocks thatdrive or keep people in poverty…. Spikes in food prices and shocks to agricultural or ecosystem-based income Natural disasters such as droughts, floods, and storms Disease and health shocks, such as malaria, diarrhea, stunting, and mental disorders … will be worsened by climate change 5
- 6. Poor people areoften more exposed to these shocks – take the case of Nigeria 6 Poor people are 50% more likely to be flooded Poor people are 130% more likely to be affected by a drought Poor people are 80% more likely to be affected by extreme heat
- 7. 7 Poor people are50% more likely to be flooded Poor people are 130% more likely to be affected by a drought Poor people are 80% more likely to be affected by extreme heat Poor people are often more exposed to these shocks – take the case of Nigeria
- 8. 8 Poor people are50% more likely to be flooded Poor people are 130% more likely to be affected by a drought Poor people are 80% more likely to be affected by extreme heat Poor people are often more exposed to these shocks – take the case of Nigeria
- 9. In most (butnot all) countries, poorer urban dwellers are more likely to live in flood zones 9 based on Winsemius et al., forthcoming Poor people are often more exposed to these shocks – take the case of urban floods
- 10. Poor people arealways much more vulnerable to natural hazards 10
- 11. Saved at afinancial institution Average transfer from social protection Indonesia Poor 8% $0.5/day Non-poor 21% $2/day Poor people have less access to support 11
- 12. Saved at afinancial institution Average transfer from social protection Indonesia Poor 8% $0.5/day Non-poor 21% $2/day Malawi Poor 4% $0.05/day Non-poor 11% $0.17/day Poor people have less access to support to cope and adapt 12
- 13. Rapid, inclusive, andclimate-informed development can prevent most consequences of climate change on poverty till 2030. Main Message #2 13 Absent such good development, climate change could add more than 100 million people in extreme poverty by 2030.
- 14. 14 Then, we introduceclimate change in these two scenarios. And we explore what development can achieve to reduce future climate change impacts
- 15. Good development –rapid, inclusive and climate-informed – can prevent most of the impact of climate change on poverty Up to 16 Million more people below the poverty line in 2030 due to climate change Prosperity Scenario
- 16. Absent good development,climate change could keep more than 100 million people in poverty, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Up to 122 million more people below the poverty line in 2030 due to climate change Poverty Scenario
- 17. Better education, transportinfrastructure, and connection to markets can reduce climate change impacts through agriculture Good development includes progress in the agricultural sector and infrastructure 17
- 18. Good development includesfinancial inclusion that protects people against all shocks… • Mobile banking will help. • But bank account must be designed for poor people… • … and they need consumer protection. 18
- 19. More intense events Richer households Basic social protection,remittances, and revenue diversification Market insurance Savings, credit, and scaled-up remittances Smaller events Poorer households Government reserve funds Government insurance and contingent finance Social insurance and scaled-up social safety nets International aid Good development includes strengthened social protection systems
- 20. Good development includesuniversal heath coverage and better health care quality… In Rwanda, the government started investing in universal health coverage in 1994. Today nearly 80 percent of its population is insured. Source: Logie, Rowson, and Ndagije, The Lancet
- 21. - Climate-smart agriculture, forinstance mixing trees with annual crops - Heat-tolerant crops - Water reservoirs and groundwater management - R&D for tropical agriculture - Early warning systems, taking into account behavioral issues - Land-use plans that account for future changes in climate (and the uncertainty in projections) - Coastal and floods protection including mangroves and wetlands - Monitoring and surveillance systems for emerging health crises - R&D toward diseases that will increase due to climate change Good development needs to be complemented with targeted adaptation policies in the three key sectors 22
- 22. Many Policy DecisionsHave Long-Term Consequences and are climate-sensitive 23
- 23. Immediate mitigation isrequired to remove the long-term threat that climate change creates for poverty eradication. Mitigation need not threaten short- term progress on poverty reduction provided that policies are well designed and international support is available. Main Message #3 24
- 24. So even thelimited changes we expect by 2030 could have a large effect on poverty 25 2030 Source: IPCC 2014
- 25. Long-term climate changeis likely to exceed adaptation capacity 26 Unmitigated climate change can threaten the convergence of poor regions to developed- country life standards, even with adaptation and trade
- 26. ~3oC ~2oC Baselines … but mitigationshould not slow down poverty reduction Stabilizing climate change requires to bring net emissions to zero… 27
- 27. Start with measureswith immediate and local co-benefits 28
- 28. Of which thereare many 29
- 29. When it reformedenergy subsidies, Indonesia deployed a program of cash transfers that provided 30% of the population with $30 per quarter, significantly more than the increase in energy costs. Source: based on Arze del Granado et al (2012) Policies can be designed to benefit the poor But very poor countries cannot protect poor people and need international support Distributional impacts of replacing $100 of fossil fuel subsidy by a universal cash transfer
- 30. An optimistic take-away? Thefuture is not set in stone. We have a window of opportunity to achieve our poverty objectives in spite of climate change. 31 To deal with short-term impacts that cannot be avoided with emission reductions Rapid, inclusive, and climate- informed development, with social protection and universal health coverage Targeted adaptation interventions such as flood management infrastructure and more heat-tolerant crops To deal with long-term impacts that cannot be avoided with adaptation and good development Immediate and pro-poor emissions-reduction policies that protect poor people against negative impacts International support to prevent the trade-off between poverty reduction and emissions reduction
- 31. Stephane Hallegatte, MookBangalore, Laura Bonzanigo, Marianne Fay, Tamaro Kane, Ulf Narloch, Julie Rozenberg, David Treguer, Adrien Vogt-Schilb Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solutions Area The World Bank Group 32