11
Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre
in the Contemporary Operating Environment
Professor Jonathan Githens-Mazer
Associate Profes...
22
What is HQ ARRC?
• UK’s primary LAND contribution to NATO
• Held at permanent readiness with lead elements always at
5 ...
33
Future Character of Conflict
• Contested
• Congested
• Cluttered
• Connected
• Constrained
• How to gain an advantage r...
44
Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre
• Gain advantage over an opponent in the cyber and
information dimensions as well as land, ...
55
OODA Loop
66
Big Data
• Need to UNDERSTAND the context, content and
background to the production of the data
• Large amounts of data...
77
Information Operations
• UNDERSTAND is only one side
• Importance of Perception
– C20th wars of national survival – cle...
88
Information Techniques and Contingency
• How to develop rapid UNDERSTANDING of an area or
region in line with readiness...
99
Applicatons of Expert Calibrated Big
Data (I)
• Potential for profound academic (yawn!) methodological
transformation a...
1010
Applicatons of Expert Calibrated Big
Data (I)
• Using Big Data via Bayesian influenced pattern
searching and expert c...
1111
Conclusion
• Information superiority = gaining advantage over an
opponent in the cyber and information dimensions
• O...
1212
Questions?
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Brigadier Stanford and Professor Githens-Mazer - Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre in the Contemporary Operating Environment

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This is a presentation delivered by Brigadier Richard Stanford and Professor Jonathan Githens-Mazer, at the RUSI Defence Information Superiority Conference 2013.

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Brigadier Stanford and Professor Githens-Mazer - Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre in the Contemporary Operating Environment

  1. 1. 11 Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre in the Contemporary Operating Environment Professor Jonathan Githens-Mazer Associate Professor in Ethno-Politics, Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, Exeter University Brigadier Richard Stanford MBE Chief Joint Fires and Influence, HQ ARRC
  2. 2. 22 What is HQ ARRC? • UK’s primary LAND contribution to NATO • Held at permanent readiness with lead elements always at 5 days NTM or less • During 2013 HQ ARRC is NATO Response Force (NRF) Land Component at shorter NTM • Ability to experiment and develop concepts through exercises • Draw on operational experience from 16 nations
  3. 3. 33 Future Character of Conflict • Contested • Congested • Cluttered • Connected • Constrained • How to gain an advantage relative to the enemy in this environment? • Technological advantage likely to be eroded / countered • Rapid expansion of Information environment
  4. 4. 44 Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre • Gain advantage over an opponent in the cyber and information dimensions as well as land, maritime and air • Attacking the opponent’s will and cohesion. • Multi-dimensional tempo that aims to achieve battle- winning shock and surprise. • Information operations may be more decisive at times than ground based tactical activity
  5. 5. 55 OODA Loop
  6. 6. 66 Big Data • Need to UNDERSTAND the context, content and background to the production of the data • Large amounts of data, when interpreted correctly with contextual awareness and cultural understanding can produce very insightful results - quickly • SOCMINT is one type of INT – all types are required to develop balanced UNDERSTANDING – No silver bullet but adoption o Big Data is needed • Some commentators state a recent over reliance on SIGINT at the expense of HUMINT and comprehension of local populations. SOCMINT can complement both SIGINT and HUMINT
  7. 7. 77 Information Operations • UNDERSTAND is only one side • Importance of Perception – C20th wars of national survival – clear win and lose. – C21st conflict resolution shaped by perception and public opinion • How use new media to communicate our message? • How generate tempo in information operations? • Can the tenets of Mission Command be applied to Information Operations? • What are our vulnerabilities which will be attacked? – different values on human life and proportionality?
  8. 8. 88 Information Techniques and Contingency • How to develop rapid UNDERSTANDING of an area or region in line with readiness? – Horizon scanning – Regional and thematic experts – upstream knowledge • How does Big Data enable us to make up for the speed vs depth? • How do we use Big Data to identify enemy weakness and mask our own? • Use of Big Data to measure our own effectiveness much more quickly
  9. 9. 99 Applicatons of Expert Calibrated Big Data (I) • Potential for profound academic (yawn!) methodological transformation at moment – New opportunities to embrace complexity within massive open- ended dynamic systems (snapshot and observation in motion) • Public Health • Climate Change • Urban Environments • Big Data allows for shift from deductive logic to inductive logic – constant adjustment of probabilistic expectations against a Criterion of Adequacy – Not correlations – real time adjustment to (potentially infinite) set of probabilistically possible explanations – Moving away from thinking about cause and effect and towards flow and interaction
  10. 10. 1010 Applicatons of Expert Calibrated Big Data (I) • Using Big Data via Bayesian influenced pattern searching and expert calibration: • Does not discount the unimaginable • Allows the data (eventually) in real time, to guide knowing/understanding and insight/foresight (JDP 04) with respect to requisite quanta of data necessary to analyse a given Contemporary Operating Environment (COE) • Big Data as complement to existing Intelligence to allow for better/deeper understanding (insight/foresight) for Contingency Policy/Planning and to measure effectiveness of Information Operations? • Starting points: Janus Headed Approach - case study research and DCDC Future Character of Conflict (2010)
  11. 11. 1111 Conclusion • Information superiority = gaining advantage over an opponent in the cyber and information dimensions • OODA loop valid but – Speed of rotation – Amount of information to understand • Big Data on its own of no use, has to be interpreted in context of culture, language and nuance • New tactics and techniques required to respond to the technological changes • Using momentum of technological change and methodological innovation to contribute to contingency readiness and measure success of Influence in real time and reflective of COE
  12. 12. 1212 Questions?

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