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Avoid software project horror stories - check the reality value of the estima...Harold van Heeringen
Many large software projects turn into software horror stories, resulting in newspaper headlines and even political issues. Often, the project costs and schedule were estimated unrealistically optimistic, using immature estimation techniques. A relatively simple way to avoid many problems is to perform a reality check on the estimate. This presentation was given on the conference of the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA2014), June 2014 (Denver, USA)
There are four major questions that need answers when applying agile software development to DOD development programs
1. How can Agile Development methods increase the Probability of Program Success (PoPS) on Earned Value programs?
2. How can Agile development be integrated with the FAR / DFAR and OMB mandates for program performance measures using Earned Value?
3. What are the “touch” points (or possible collision points) between Agile and EIA-748-C?
4. What are the measures of success for Agile methods in the context of EIA-748-C?
Failure Modes of Integrating Agile with Earned Value ManagementGlen Alleman
The root causes of Failure to Transform to an Agile Organization and Failure to Adopt Agile methods are two Critical Success factors the require correct actions for any Agile at Scale initiative to be successful.
Integrated Agile with EVM -- Executive overviewGlen Alleman
Earned Value Management and Agile Software Development have much in common. The most important is progress to plan is measured by Physical Percent Complete with tangible evidence of working products at the end of planned period of performance.
For software intensive system of systems, agile development provides powerful tools for producing working software on frequent boundaries to gain needed customer feedback to assure the program is going in the right direction.
PM Chapter on Agile IT Project Management MethodsGlen Alleman
The nations prosperity depends of information technology (IT) software. The nation’s IT software industry depends on the timely delivery of high quality products to eager customers. This industry is slipping further behind in quality and timely delivery every year. The gap continues to grow.
Avoid software project horror stories - check the reality value of the estima...Harold van Heeringen
Many large software projects turn into software horror stories, resulting in newspaper headlines and even political issues. Often, the project costs and schedule were estimated unrealistically optimistic, using immature estimation techniques. A relatively simple way to avoid many problems is to perform a reality check on the estimate. This presentation was given on the conference of the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA2014), June 2014 (Denver, USA)
There are four major questions that need answers when applying agile software development to DOD development programs
1. How can Agile Development methods increase the Probability of Program Success (PoPS) on Earned Value programs?
2. How can Agile development be integrated with the FAR / DFAR and OMB mandates for program performance measures using Earned Value?
3. What are the “touch” points (or possible collision points) between Agile and EIA-748-C?
4. What are the measures of success for Agile methods in the context of EIA-748-C?
Failure Modes of Integrating Agile with Earned Value ManagementGlen Alleman
The root causes of Failure to Transform to an Agile Organization and Failure to Adopt Agile methods are two Critical Success factors the require correct actions for any Agile at Scale initiative to be successful.
Integrated Agile with EVM -- Executive overviewGlen Alleman
Earned Value Management and Agile Software Development have much in common. The most important is progress to plan is measured by Physical Percent Complete with tangible evidence of working products at the end of planned period of performance.
For software intensive system of systems, agile development provides powerful tools for producing working software on frequent boundaries to gain needed customer feedback to assure the program is going in the right direction.
PM Chapter on Agile IT Project Management MethodsGlen Alleman
The nations prosperity depends of information technology (IT) software. The nation’s IT software industry depends on the timely delivery of high quality products to eager customers. This industry is slipping further behind in quality and timely delivery every year. The gap continues to grow.
The effectiveness of risk management depends on the people who set it up and coordinate the risk management process to do their job properly.
On many programs, risk management consists only of having a policy and oversight, not managing in the presence of uncertainty.
If we treat red flags as false alarms rather than early warnings of danger this incubates the threats to program success.
• Group think of dominate leaders often inhibits good thinking about risks.
The management of software development is fraught with risk: technical risk, market risk, requirements risk, and financial risk. This paper describes nine (9) key management principles for
guiding the development of a software project. These principles are not original. They are taken directly from the work of Norm Brown, the founder and executive Director of the Software Program Managers Network (SPMN).
Earned Value Management and Agile Software Development have much in common. Most important is progress to plan measured by Physical Percent Complete with tangible evidence of working products at the end of planned period of performance.
For Software Intensive System of Systems (SISoS), agile development provides the tool for producing working software on frequent intervals needed for customer feedback to assure the program is going in the right direction.
Forecasting cost and schedule performanceGlen Alleman
For credible decisions to be made, we need confidence intervals on all the numbers we use to make decisions.
These confidence intervals come from the underlying statistics and the related probabilities.
Statistical forecasting, using time series analysis of past performance, is mandatory for any credible discussion of project performance in the future.
The naturally occurring uncertainties (Aleatory) in cost, schedule, and technical performance can be modeled in a Monte Carlo Simulation tool. The Event Based uncertainties (Epistemic) require capture, modeling of their impacts, defining handling strategies, modeling the effectiveness of these handling efforts, and the residual risks, and their impacts of both the original risk and the residual risk on the program.
IS EARNED VALUE + AGILE A MATCH MADE IN HEAVEN?
Increasing the Probability of Program Success requires by connecting the dots between EV and Agile Development.
Presented at
The Nexus of Agile Software Development and
Earned Value Management, OSD-PARCA,
February 19 – 20, 2015
Institute for Defense Analysis, Alexandria, VA
Recent College of Performance Management Webinar on using Technical Performance to inform Earned Value Management. Six steps to building a credible Performance Measurement Baseline to connect the dots between all the elements of the program
The 5 Immutable principles of project managementGlen Alleman
Software development methods are sometimes confused with Project Management principles. There are 5 irreducible principles used to manage projects, no matter the domain or context. We need to assure our development work is guided by these 5 Project Management principles.
Credible Plans, Integrated Reporting, and Control SystemsGlen Alleman
Project success starts with a credible plan for delivering the needed capabilities as planned. This starts with knowing what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers.
Project Success: The Basis of the Five Immutable PrinciplesGlen Alleman
Some people in the field talk about the “basic tenets” of project management. Where do these come from? Some say they come from hands-on experience, anecdotal “best practices,” and the good old “school of hard knocks.”
Published in The Public Manager, Vol. 43, No. 3, Fall 2014
Root Cause Analysis is the method of problem solving that identifies the root causes of failures or problems. A root cause is the source of a problem and its resulting symptom, that once removed, corrects or prevents an undesirable outcome from recurring.
Program Management Office Lean Software Development and Six SigmaGlen Alleman
Successfully combining a PMO, Agile, and Lean / 6 starts with understanding what benefit each paradigm brings to the table. Architecting a solution for the enterprise requires assembling a “Systems” with processes, people, and principles – all sharing the goal of business improvement.
The effectiveness of risk management depends on the people who set it up and coordinate the risk management process to do their job properly.
On many programs, risk management consists only of having a policy and oversight, not managing in the presence of uncertainty.
If we treat red flags as false alarms rather than early warnings of danger this incubates the threats to program success.
• Group think of dominate leaders often inhibits good thinking about risks.
The management of software development is fraught with risk: technical risk, market risk, requirements risk, and financial risk. This paper describes nine (9) key management principles for
guiding the development of a software project. These principles are not original. They are taken directly from the work of Norm Brown, the founder and executive Director of the Software Program Managers Network (SPMN).
Earned Value Management and Agile Software Development have much in common. Most important is progress to plan measured by Physical Percent Complete with tangible evidence of working products at the end of planned period of performance.
For Software Intensive System of Systems (SISoS), agile development provides the tool for producing working software on frequent intervals needed for customer feedback to assure the program is going in the right direction.
Forecasting cost and schedule performanceGlen Alleman
For credible decisions to be made, we need confidence intervals on all the numbers we use to make decisions.
These confidence intervals come from the underlying statistics and the related probabilities.
Statistical forecasting, using time series analysis of past performance, is mandatory for any credible discussion of project performance in the future.
The naturally occurring uncertainties (Aleatory) in cost, schedule, and technical performance can be modeled in a Monte Carlo Simulation tool. The Event Based uncertainties (Epistemic) require capture, modeling of their impacts, defining handling strategies, modeling the effectiveness of these handling efforts, and the residual risks, and their impacts of both the original risk and the residual risk on the program.
IS EARNED VALUE + AGILE A MATCH MADE IN HEAVEN?
Increasing the Probability of Program Success requires by connecting the dots between EV and Agile Development.
Presented at
The Nexus of Agile Software Development and
Earned Value Management, OSD-PARCA,
February 19 – 20, 2015
Institute for Defense Analysis, Alexandria, VA
Recent College of Performance Management Webinar on using Technical Performance to inform Earned Value Management. Six steps to building a credible Performance Measurement Baseline to connect the dots between all the elements of the program
The 5 Immutable principles of project managementGlen Alleman
Software development methods are sometimes confused with Project Management principles. There are 5 irreducible principles used to manage projects, no matter the domain or context. We need to assure our development work is guided by these 5 Project Management principles.
Credible Plans, Integrated Reporting, and Control SystemsGlen Alleman
Project success starts with a credible plan for delivering the needed capabilities as planned. This starts with knowing what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers.
Project Success: The Basis of the Five Immutable PrinciplesGlen Alleman
Some people in the field talk about the “basic tenets” of project management. Where do these come from? Some say they come from hands-on experience, anecdotal “best practices,” and the good old “school of hard knocks.”
Published in The Public Manager, Vol. 43, No. 3, Fall 2014
Root Cause Analysis is the method of problem solving that identifies the root causes of failures or problems. A root cause is the source of a problem and its resulting symptom, that once removed, corrects or prevents an undesirable outcome from recurring.
Program Management Office Lean Software Development and Six SigmaGlen Alleman
Successfully combining a PMO, Agile, and Lean / 6 starts with understanding what benefit each paradigm brings to the table. Architecting a solution for the enterprise requires assembling a “Systems” with processes, people, and principles – all sharing the goal of business improvement.
Process Reengineering vs Continuous Improvement: What’s the Right Choice for ...Kashish Trivedi
Your organization might have a disconnected system. As a result, each customer or team member needs to go through various people and departments to solve an issue.
Everyone involved in this process is frustrated because the information is lost and people constantly need to repeat data.
Adding effective management can solve this problem. By making that change, information becomes more shareable. Overhauling the system like this requires a considerable investment in the short term, but will increase long-term efficiency.
Lean principles and practices have long been applied to manufacturing, with Agile arguably the inevitable evolution of Lean applied to knowledge-based work.
When viewed from a customer’s perspective much of software development may be seen as lower value. How can organizations become lean by eliminating waste and working smarter?
This presentation explores Lean principles and practices applied to software beginning with value stream mapping and the 7 (+1) types of waste.
Presented as an Agile 101 session at Agile New England on 5 August 2021.
Planning projects usually starts with tasks and milestones. The planner gathers this information from the participants – customers, engineers, subject matter experts. This information is usually arranged in the form of activities and milestones. PMBOK defines “project time management” in this manner. The activities are then sequenced according to the projects needs and mandatory dependencies.
Increasing the Probability of Project SuccessGlen Alleman
Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Information about key cost, performance and schedule attributes are often uncertain or unknown until late in the program.
Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which may potentially impact the program, termed Known Unknowns, can be alleviated with good risk management. -- Effective Risk Management 2nd Edition, Page 1, Edmund Conrow, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2003
Cost and schedule growth for complex projects is created when unrealistic technical performance expectations, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, inadequate risk assessments, unanticipated technical issues, and poorly performed and ineffective risk management, contribute to project technical and programmatic shortfalls
From Principles to Strategies for Systems EngineeringGlen Alleman
From Principles to Strategies How to apply Principles, Practices, and Processes of Systems Engineering to solve complex technical, operational,
and organizational problems
Building a Credible Performance Measurement BaselineGlen Alleman
Establishing a credible Performance Measurement Baseline, with a risk adjusted Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master Schedule, starts with the WBS and connects Technical Measures of progress to Earned Value
Capabilities‒Based Planning the capabilities needed to accomplish a mission or fulfill a business strategy
Only when capabilities are defined can we start with requirements elicitation
Starting with the development of a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) estimate of work and duration, creating the Product Roadmap and Release Plan, the Product and Sprint Backlogs, executing and statusing the Sprint, and informing the Earned Value Management Systems, using Physical Percent Complete of progress to plan.
This resource document describes the Program Governance Road map for product development, deployment, and sustainment of products and services in compliance with CMS guidance, ITIL IT management, CMMI best practices, and other guidance to assure high quality software is deployed for sustained operational success in mission critical domains.
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- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
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1. Product & Process Development Kaizen
for Software Development, Project, and
Program Management
Glen B. Alleman
Vice President, Strategy and Performance Management
Lewis & Fowler
www.lewisandfowler.com
303.241.9633
galleman@lewisandfowler.com
LPPDE, Denver Colorado April 21–23, 2008
1
4. Three Steps to Product and Process Improvement
4
Defining the Controls … That Assures Process Usage … Results in Reduced Waste
The existing process,
development, and operational
controls assessed for
effectiveness, efficiency and
applicability.
These incremental
improvements are made using
the principles of Kaizen guided
by eliminating the 7 Wastes.
Control applications applied to
standard work. Standard work
does not mean constrained,
over controlled, draconian.
It means “what we do for our
customers as a firm is known,
defined, and adds value in
ways acknowledged by all
participants.
Using Kaizen as well as other
process and product
improvement process, search
for, remove, and replace Waste
Reducing process, products
and service.
For process, product, and service improvements to take place, be sustained, and add value to the
customer and the firm, a continuous improvement process must be in place. This process can not
be OUTSIDE the normal business process …
IT MUST BE THE NORMAL BUSINESS PROCESS PERFORMED EVERYDAY
This is the brilliance of Toyota – innovation is an incremental, never ending process in
which the goal is NOT to make huge sudden leaps, but rather to make things better on a
daily basis. “The Open Secret of Success,” New Yorker, May 12, 2008, p. 48
5. Doing PDK does not require learning
Japanese
§ 改 (kai)
–Change or
the action to
correct
§ 善 (zen)
–Good
5
6. Process Development Kaizen
Kaizen is a
Japanese word
which roughly
translates into
“continual
improvement”.
Kaizen is about fine–
tuning processes
that already exist
6
7. The Three Core Principles of Kaizen
§ Consider a process and the results, the
products (not just the results) so that
actions to achieve the desired outcomes
are surfaced.
§ Systematically think of the whole process
and not just what is immediately in view.
§ Learn through a non-judgmental, non-
blaming approach and intent allows for
the re-examination of the assumptions
that resulted in the current process.
– Blame, judgment, rehashing the past and
all that “we used to do it this way” are
wastes (無駄 Muda)
7
8. Making the outcome clear
§ Define the deliverables in visible
and measures terms – what does
“Done” look like for this round of
effort?
§ Connect effort, duration, and risk
with these deliverables
§ Arrange them in a sequence that
assures increasing maturity along
the way to completion
§ But in fact we are never complete
in the conventional sense – we
are always continually improving
8
9. Turning the process
from a linear,
waterfall
development
approach;
To an iterative,
incremental,
continuously
improvement set of
activities;
That delivers
continuous value to
the stakeholders.
This is the
theoretical basis of
all Agile
development
methods
9
10. Conducting a PDK Event
§ Flush out opportunities at multiple
levels
§ Point out waste visually through
process flow diagrams
§ Determine impact on overall
business and / or business units
§ Create buy-in “on the spot”
§ Incorporate change management as
part of overall improvement strategy
10
11. The Kaizen Event from a PMO Point of View
11
Kaizen Activity Questions that need answers in order to improve
A structured product and
process maturity
assessment
Where have we come from? What worked in the
past? What didn’t work? What can be improved?
What can be used from AS IS for the TO BE?
Evaluate risk and probability
for success
If we attempt to make improvements, what are the
inhibitors to success? What mitigations can be
taken?
Visibly track the increasing
maturity of products and
services
How can we recognize we’re actually making
improvements? What are the units of measure?
Provide visibility to sponsors
and stakeholders
Can we have the sponsors concur we’re making
improvements?
Have the discipline to follow
through to rollout and
operations phase
What accountabilities need to be in place for us to be
successful? Can we make this accountabilities
appear at this time? If not now, when?
13. The starting point for making
improvements
§ Seek small opportunities for
improvement in the development
process and the product definition
§ Find and root out mistakes of the
past in all activities around product
and service development and
deployment
§ Improve the system not the people
§ Devote time to measuring
13
15. The raw materials of process
modeling …
§ Nouns
– Documents
– Data
– Information
– Evidentiary materials
§ Verbs
– Transformation of nouns into new
nouns
– «Noun» U «Verb» à «Noun»
15
17. The Seven Process Wastes (Remember TIM WOOD)
Use these as test questions for Process Improvement or Development
§ Transportation
§ Unnecessary Inventory
§ Unnecessary or Excessive Motion
§ Waiting
§ Overproduction
§ Over or Inappropriate Processing
§ Defects
17
18. Transportation
18
Any movement or
motion from one
place to another that
adds no value
§ Make the distance
over which something
is moved as short as
possible
§ Make review and
approval cycles short
and sweet
§ Reduce artifacts to
only those that can be
directly absorbed into
the production of
products or process –
“executable maps in
BPML”
19. 19
Reduce the amount of
work-in-process within
the system
§ Ensure that work arrives at
the downstream process
when it is required and
does not sit (no in basket
overflow)
§ Use “pull” work stream
management for all
software production and
test
§ Define the “pulled products”
in a maturity map by
working from Right to Left in
the schedule
Unnecessary
Inventory
20. 20
Unnecessary or Excessive Motion
Processing steps that add
no value to the product or
service
§ Avoid looking, searching, or
wasted effort that burdens
the value of the product or
service
§ Have producers hold all
components until “pull”
demand is made
§ Have repositories of usable
components under
configuration control
21. 21
Waiting
Someone or
something waiting
with nothing to do
§ Keep people
productively active
§ Avoid paper, or
decisions around the
paper, from sitting
around before being
processed
§ Provide adequate
staffing at the
bottlenecked operations
§ Minimize non-value-
added transactions by
asking “how does this
effort move the product
or service forward in it’s
maturity?”
23. 23
Over or Inappropriate Processing
Activities still performed
but no longer needed or
poor planning and
organizational flow
§ Remove unnecessary
steps – make NVA
§ Stop copying
everyone on emails
§ Stop sending reports
and see who
complains
§ Stop unnecessary
signoffs and reviews
24. Defects
24
Activities that result in error,
rework, work arounds, or
quality defects prevent the
customer from accepting
the product or service
§ Error proof the process steps
§ Build robust and fault recovery
products and services
§ Use standardized work
instructions
§ Continuous customer
feedback used to make
incremental improvement to
errors, exceptions, and
recoveries
§ Focus on the avoiding
“exception handling” – this is
where waste occurs and burns
valuable resources
25. Most failures to realize potential return on process and product
improvements starts by committing one of these Seven Sins
The Seven
Sins of
Process
Improvement
Process not
traceable to
strategy
Improvements
don’t involve
the right people
Teams not
given a clear
charter and
held
accountable
Top
management
focused on
change not
improvement
Change to the
people not
considered
Focused on
redesign rather
than
implementation
Failure to leave
measurement
system in place
Improving Performance, How to
Manage the White Space on
the Organization Chart, 2nd
Edition, Geary A. Rummler and
Alan P. Brache, Jossey Bass,
1995
27. Example – embedded software control system
27
Improve Gases Production System Unit Design and Deployment Process
Mission
Increase profit to cost of development of nonflammable gases design and prototyping cycles of
semi-conductor plant standalone units process control software
Goals
§ Reduce units from design and prototyping work
§ Reduce cycle time for design review and approval to prototype manufacturing for embedded
process controller
§ Improve emergency shutdown integrity of software base
Must Haves Can’t Do
§ Can make decision about improvements in
the software design and integration process
as long as there is no negative effect on
other organizations within the gas unit
interfaces
§ Must get agreement from other departments
prior to executing change if the proposed
change requires adjustment to the
emergency shutdown procedures
§ No impact of sunk labor of this department
or other departments results from changes
to the emergency shutdown software
changes
28. The Kaizen Cycle
28
Focus
Evaluate
Solve
Act
Focus:
§ Build
description of
the target
process
§ Walk through
the target work
process
§ Build the
mission
statement
§ Set goals for
the Kaizen
event
§ Define the Do’s
and Don’t’s