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Credible Plans, Integrated Reporting, and Control Systems

The document discusses the creation of a credible performance measurement baseline (PMB) through five core processes, utilizing the Wright brothers' flying machine as a case study. It outlines methods for defining success, developing technical and programmatic plans, adjusting for risks, and measuring progress with objective metrics. The latter sections emphasize the importance of executing the PMB by comparing actual performance against plans, and revising schedules and risk assessments based on performance data.

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Creating Credible Plans, Integrated Reporting, and Control Systems Part 1 Glen B. Alleman Niwot Ridge L.L.C. glen.alleman@niwotridge.com +1 303 241 9633 IPM Workshop 2015 Thomas Coonce Cost Analysis and Research Division Institute for Defense Analyses tcoonce@ida.org +1 703 575 6634 Rick Price Project Management & Planning Operations Principal Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company Rick.a.price@lmco.com +1 303 971 1826
2 Learning Objectives • TLO #1 – the student will understand how to apply the 5 core processes needed to produce a credible Performance Measurement Baseline. • TLO #2 – the student will understand how to objectively measure progress and use the performance information to control the program. GA
3 Building a credible PMB for Wilbur and Orville’s flying machine. • Our talk today uses the Wright Brothers Flyer as an example for developing a Credible PMB • The Urban Legend of Orville and Wilbur's efforts to invent manned flight has been revealed in McCullough’s book. • Their work has all the attributes of the Five Core Processes. GA
4 There is a Method to our Madness • If you’re over 60 you’ll recognize this chart template for HIPO, used to describe Inputs, Processes, Outputs we’re using to create a credible Performance Measurement Baseline, measure progress, and control the program • These are the minimum HIPO elements, there can be and should be more. GA
5 The data and processes needed to create a Credible Performance Measurement Baseline GA
6 A Readable Version The Five processes needed to build a credible PMB ❶ Define Done in Units of Measure Meaningful to the Decision Makers. ❷ Develop the Plan and Schedule to reach Done as planned. ❸ Define the Resources Needed to Reach Done as Planned. ❹ Adjust Plan for Reducible and Irreducible Risks. ❺ Finalize the Risk Adjusted Measures of Progress Toward Done. GA
7 Inputs and Outputs for Building the Credible Performance Measurement Baseline • Customer Capabilities • Time phased budget • Desired completion date • Available technologies • Time phase resources • Reference Class Data • Programmatic and technical risks with probabilities and impacts • Historic uncertainties • Measures of Effectiveness • Measures of Performance • Work Breakdown Structure • Integrated Master Plan • Technical Performance Management Plan • Initial Integrated Master Schedule • Time Phased Staffing Plan • Schedule Reserve • Management Reserve • Risk Register and Mitigation Plans • Adjusted Integrated Master Schedule • Risk Management Plan Inputs Outputs GA
8 ❶ DEFINE DONE Define Done in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers for each deliverable in the WBS. Measures of Effectiveness (MOE), Measures of Performance (MOP), Technical Performance Measures (TPM), and …illities are defined before the work starts, for each needed capability that accomplishes the mission or fulfills the Business Case. TC
9 Systems Engineering Concepts Used By The Wright Brothers [1] SE Concept Wright BrothersActivities Operational Concept Vision: clear concept of the system they were developing MissionRequirements: powered flight for substantial timeand distance Scenarios: recognitionof a key scenarioinvolvinglateral control during flight Define the System Boundary Understoodthe need for the pilot to be part of the system Objectives Definitionof distanceand time objectives Derived Requirements Horsepower and weight of the engine Thrust of the propellers Requirements Management Managed weight requirement of the engine carefully Functional Analysis Understood the functions of the airplane, which drove their design process Further understood the functions of the propulsionsubsystem Physical Architecture& Interfaces Matched the physical architecture tothe functions of the airplane Interfaces between the pilot and the control surfaces Interfacebetween the engine and propellers TC
10 Systems Engineering Concepts Used By The Wright Brothers [1] SE Concept Wright BrothersActivities Prototypes and Testing Built a successfullymorecomplex set of gliders before building the airplane First airplane was successful,due to the series of gliders and kites Employed sophisticatedtestingwitheach prototype, atypical of others at the time Trade-Off Decisions Design favoredcontrol of the airplane over stability Test System Extensiveevenduring glider tests Allowed problem identificationand solvingduring all test phases Created wind tunnel to address discrepancy between their test data and the literature Included the careful selectionof the test site Included in the first airplane Verification Best illustratedby testingof the engine to determine whether it met its requirements Validation The final test that proved flight was possible Team Activities Two brothers formed a design-build team TC
11 Measure of Effectiveness (MoE) Measures of Effectiveness … • Are stated in units meaningful to the buyer, • Focus on capabilities independent of any technical implementation, • Are connected to the mission success. Operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions. MoE’s Belong to the End User “Technical Measurement,” INCOSE–TP–2003–020–01 11 TC
12 Measure of Performance (MoP) Measures of Performance are … • Attributes that assure the system has the capability and capacity to perform, • Assessment of the system to assure it meets design requirements to satisfy the MoE. Measures that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. “Technical Measurement,” INCOSE–TP–2003–020–01 MoP’s belong to the Program – Developed by the Systems Engineer, Measured By CAMs, and Analyzed by PP&C 12 TC
13 Technical Performance Measures (TPM) Technical Performance Measures … • Assess design progress, • Define compliance to performance requirements, • Identify technical risk, • Are limited to critical thresholds, • Include projected performance. Attributes that determine how well a system or system element is satisfying or expected to satisfy a technical requirement or goal “Technical Measurement,” INCOSE–TP–2003–020–01 13 TC
14 What Done Looks Like for the Wright Brothers’ Military Flyer • Propose $25,000 to build and deliver a flyer by 1st week in August 1908 • Conduct Acceptance testing for 30 days thereafter Contract Specification Value/Goal Passenger # Two persons Payload 350 lbs Range 125 miles Air Speed 40 mph Duration Aloft One hour Maneuverability Be steered in all directions w/o difficulty and in perfect control at all times Ease of Use An intelligentman become proficientwithin a reasonable length oftime Logistics Assembled and disassembled within one hour and packed into an Army wagon TC
15 ❷ DEVELOP A PLAN FOR TECHNICAL SUCCESS The Technical Plan shows the sequence of work needed to produce products and services that move the program toward Done. The Technical Plan can take many forms. From a formal Integrated Master Plan / Integrated Master Schedule to a Kanban work plan or Scrum Release/Sprint/Task Plan in Agile Software Development TC
16 Develop the Plan and Schedule • Define the technical approach to building the product that will allow it to meet the performance and effectiveness goals – Identify all the variables that will impact the solution to the technical and operational requirements – Orville and Wilbur used the spiral development approach for the Wright Flyer • Sequence the work to assure the increasing maturity of the deliverables supports the plan to reach Done. TC
17 The Wright Brothers’ Technical Plan • Modify aircraft to reduce weight from 845 to 800 pounds • Modify aircraft and controls for two persons • Increase HP from 21 to 31 horsepower • Apply a Modify – Test – Modify approach • Spend lots of time practicing (and not kill yourself) • Dry run assembly and disassembly procedures TC
18 ❸ DEFINE THE PROGRAMMATIC PLAN The Programmatic Plan describes all the activities that enable the Technical Plan to function properly. What work do we need to do in what order and what’s the cost of that planned work. What facilities, resources, equipment, and materials are needed to reach done as planned. RP
19 Define the Programmatic Plan • Assure the programmatic plan aligns with the technical plan • Qualified Staffing Plan to produce the needed outcomes at the needed time • Facilities and equipment needed to produce the products • Material availability and readiness Plan • Phased funding available to sustain the planned progress of the Technical Plan RP
20 Wright Brothers’ Flyer Resources Needed • Facilities and equipment for modifications – Fabrication hangar @ Kitty Hawk – Launching track – Catapult • Materials (propellers, wood, fabric, sewing supplies, chain, etc.) • Test areas – Kitty Hawk at Kill Devil Hills • Requisite labor skills – Orville & Wilbur Wright – Charlie Furnas (Dayton mechanic) – Charlie Taylor (engine design/builder) – Carpenters at Kitty Hawk (to rebuild the hangar) • Money to support the development/build effort • GFE – Site availability at Ft Myer, VA – Hangar shed at Ft Myer, VA RP
21 Initial Wright Brothers’ Summary Level IMS RP
22 ❹ ADJUST FOR REDUCIBLE AND IRREDUCIBLE RISK Any impediment reduces the probability of success. Each impediment must be identified, a plan to address the impediment developed, each handling strategy applied, monitored, and measured to assure there is an increasing probability of success. GA
2323 Uncertainties are things we can not be certain about. Uncertainty is created by our incomplete knowledge; not by our ignorance GA
24 2 Types of Uncertainty – Both Create Programmatic and Technical Risk Uncertainty Irreducible (Aleatory) Reducible (Epistemic) Natural Variability Ambiguity Ontological Uncertainty Probabilistic Events Probabilistic Impacts Periods of Exposure GA
25 Assemble a credible WBS and Integrated Master Plan / Integrated Master Schedule (IMP/IMS) –WBS Dictionary says what will be built –IMP/IMS says how, where, when, and what will be built and the processes to build it. Identify Reducible – Event Based – uncertainties and the resulting risks from WBS Dictionary and IMP Narratives in the Risk Register Put these risks in the Risk Register, with probability and impacts Develop risk reduction plans and place them in the IMS using CBB funding. How to Build a Risk Adjusted IMS in 8 Steps 0 1 2 3 RP
26 Assess the Irreducible – naturally occurring – uncertainties and the resulting schedule and cost risks in the WBS and IMS. Use Monte Carlo Simulation to determine schedule margin and budget impacts from work activity durations to handle these irreducible uncertainties. Formulate schedule and cost margin to protect key item deliverables in the IMS. How to Build a Risk Adjusted IMS in 8 Steps 4 5 6 RP
27 Determine cost and schedule impacts of unmitigated risks in the risk register with their exposure and impact and place them in Management Reserve and Schedule Margin Assemble mitigated Irreducible (Aleatory) and Reducible (Epistemic) risks with the unmitigated event– based risks into the Total Allocated Budget – Risk handling plans included in baseline for reducible and irreducible in the PMB. – Risk Handling in Management Reserve. Building a Risk Adjusted IMS in 8 Steps (Concluded) 8 7 Adjust the IMS with rearranging parallel or serial work, changing scope, or add resources. RP
28 Wright Brothers’ Risk Register and Risk Strategy 1. Control. Buy $1.6K of key spare parts and send to Kitty Hawk 2. Accept. Add schedule margin in schedule 3. Accept. Add schedule margin in schedule 4. Accept. Add schedule margin in schedule TC
29 Wright Brothers’ 1908 Flyer Management Reserve Calculation Element Cost CL Comments P80 Cost $19,696 80% This is the cost at the 80% CL assuming only non-reducible risks in the RR Deterministic BACf $16,355 < 1% Final BAC based on the resource-loaded schedule MR (P80 Cost - BACf) 3,341 Calculated MR MR as a percent of BACf 20.4% Caculated MR % of BACf TC
30 Wright Brothers’ 1908 Flyer Schedule Margin Calculation Element Finish Date CL Months Work Days IMS Deterministic Pf Duration and Date:= 7.25 152 9/15/1908 5% Need Duration and Date:= 7.75 163 9/30/1908 80% Schedule Margin:= 1 11 Duration TC
31 Schedule Margin in Final WB’s Flyer IMS TC
32 ❺ DEVELOP OBJECTIVE MEASURES OF PROGRESS For each deliverable develop an objective measure of progress to plan using physical percent complete supported by Quantifiable Backup Data (Objective Criteria) Use these measures to assess progress and identify variances requiring corrective actions to Keep the Program Green. GA
33 Objective Measures of Progress to Plan • Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) • Measures of Performance (MOP) • Technical Performance Measures (TPM) – Weight TPM Plan – Risk Burn Down Plan – Schedule Margin Burn Down Plan • All the other …ilities – Availability (assemble within one hour) – Usability (simple in construction and operation) GA
34 Weight TPM for Wright Brothers 1908 Flyer 770 780 790 800 810 820 830 840 850 860 870 15-Feb-08 15-Mar-08 15-Apr-08 15-May-08 15-Jun-08 15-Jul-08 Pounds 15- Feb-08 28- Feb-08 15- Mar-08 31- Mar-08 15- Apr-08 30- Apr-08 15- May- 08 31- May- 08 15-Jun- 08 30-Jun- 08 15-Jul- 08 Upper Limit 860 855 845 835 825 815 800 800 800 800 800 Planned 845 840 830 820 810 805 800 800 800 800 800 Target 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 GA
35 What’s Next • TLO #1 – the student will learn how to produce an integrated report of the Technicalprogress consistentwith the Programmatic progress, detect variances,and suggestcorrective actions. • TLO #2 – the student will understand how to objectively measure progress and use the performance to manage the program. • Earned Value Managementis part of a Technicaland Programmatic control system – Integrated risk, performance, effectiveness,technicaland other measures provide leading indicators of program performance.
36 References 1. “The Concepts of Systems Engineering as Practiced by the Wright Brothers,” Dennis Buede, Stevens Institute of Technology School of Engineering, Hoboken, NJ 07030
Executing the Credible Plan, Using an Integrated Reporting and Control System Part 2 Glen B. Alleman Niwot Ridge L.L.C. glen.alleman@niwotridge.com +1 303 241 9633 IPM Workshop 2015 Thomas Coonce Cost Analysis and Research Division Institute for Defense Analyses tcoonce@ida.org +1 703 575 6634 Rick Price Project Management & Planning Operations Principal Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company Rick.a.proce@lmco.com +1 303 971 1826
38 Learning Objectives • TLO #1 – the student will learn how to produce an integrated report of the Technical progress consistent with the Programmatic progress, detect variances, and suggest corrective actions. • TLO #2 – the student will understand how to objectively measure progress and use the performance to manage the program. • Earned Value Management is part of a Technical and Programmatic control system – Integrated risk, performance, effectiveness, technical and other measures provide leading indicators of program performance. GA
39 In Part 1, we talked about … • Addressed the five core processes needed to produce a credible Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). • Showed how to use objective measures of progress and how to inform program performance with these measures • In Part 2, you’ll see how to execute the program with this information. GA
40 Executing the Performance Measurement Baseline GA
41 A Readable Version The Four processes needed to execute the credible PMB ❶ Compare Technical and Programmatic Actuals to Plan ❷ Compare BCWP and Cost and Schedule Performance Data with Management Reserve (MR) and Schedule Margin (SM) balances ❸ Revise Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) and Risk Register ❹ Run or Rerun Monte Carlo Simulation GA
42 Inputs and Outputs for Building the Credible Performance Measurement Baseline • Customer Capabilities • Time phased budget • Desired completion date • Available technologies • Time phase resources • Reference Class Data • Programmatic and technical risks with probabilities and impacts • Historic uncertainties • Measures of Effectiveness • Measures of Performance • Work Breakdown Structure • Integrated Master Plan • Technical Performance Management Plan • Initial Integrated Master Schedule • Time Phased Staffing Plan • Schedule Reserve • Management Reserve • Risk Register and Mitigation Plans • Adjusted Integrated Master Schedule • Risk Management Plan Inputs Outputs GA
43 ❶ COMPARE PLANNED TO ACTUAL PERFORMANCE Compare technical and programmatic performance to the planned performance. Identify variances needed to make decisions about corrective actions to Keep the Program Green. TC
44 Compare Planned to Actual Performance • Physical Percent Complete – Planned – Actual • Do this at the Work Package level – Quantifiable Backup Data – Avoid averaging out the variances at the Control Account level Objectively assess accomplishments at the Work Performance Level EIA-748-C, page 1 TC
45 Wright Brothers’ Technical, Cost and Schedule Progress 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 770 780 790 800 810 820 830 840 850 860 870 15-Feb-08 15-Mar-08 15-Apr-08 15-May-08 15-Jun-08 15-Jul-08 CPI/SPI Pounds WBs' 1908 Flyer Integrated Progress (2/28/1908) Upper Limit Planned Target Achieved SPI CPI Compare side-by-side the Technical Performance (Weight) with the Programmatic performance CPI and SPI TC
46 ❷ COMPARE MR AND SM BALANCES Using the performance data and the variances, the computed BCWP from measures of Physical Percent Complete. Assess planned Management Reserve and Schedule Margin with the current MR and SM and inform EAC and ETC from past performance. TC
47 Compare BCWP with MR and SM • With actual BCWP assess impact on Estimate at Completion and Estimate To Complete. • Assess planned Management Reserve against actual Management Reserve • Assess planned Schedule Margin against actual Schedule Margin • Assess planned risk burn down against actual Risk Burn Down TC
48 Wright Brothers’ MR Planned Use vs Actuals $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 WB 1908 Flyer Planned vs Actual MR Use (15 May 1908) MR Planned Balance MR Actual Balance TC
49 Wright Brothers’ Schedule Margin Burn Planned Use vs Actuals In May, when the schedule margin went below plan, immediate corrective action is needed to get back on Schedule Margin Plan 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 15-Feb-08 15-Mar-08 15-Apr-08 15-May-08 15-Jun-08 15-Jul-08 15-Aug-08 15-Sep-08 Days WB 1908 Flyer Planned vs Actual Schedule Margin Use (15 May 1908) Schedule Margin Plan Balance Schedule Margin Actual Balance This dip characterized as negative slack RP
50 ❸ REVISE IMS AND RISK REGISTER With this data, update the Integrated Master Schedule and Risk levels in the Risk Register for future periods of performance.
51 Revise IMS and Risk Register • Every reporting period update the Risk Register with actual assessment of – Reduced risks – Actual margin needed for unmitigated and irreducible risks • Adjust Risk Register contents for current assessments – New risks – Retired risks – Changes in risk attributes • Update ETC, EAC, and ECD with the statused IMS and Risk Register TC
52 ❹ RUN AND RERUN THE SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS Schedule Risk Analysis (per DI-MGMT-81861) at periodic intervals to confirm the Estimate to Complete and the Estimate At Completion are still within acceptable values to ensure the probability of program success. TC
53 Run and Rerun Schedule Risk Analysis • With updated Risk Register – rerun the Schedule Risk Analysis • Reassess EAC, ECD, and ETC • Determine sensitivity indices (which elements are most likely to cause the forward plan to go awry) • If needed – Replan IMS, possibly with more schedule margin – Add resources – Adjust technical solution TC
54 Summary • Cost and Schedule performance informed by Technical Performance – At IBR TechnicalPerformance plan defines the work activities in the IMS • Build a risk adjusted PMB – Reducible and irreducible risks in the risk register, traceable to the IMS. • Budget active mitigation activities • Protect unmitigated risks with ManagementReserve and Schedule Margin • Make sure programmatic data is aligned with Technical Performance Data • Perform these activities continually during execution to Keep the Program Green TC
55 Questions??? 55

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Credible Plans, Integrated Reporting, and Control Systems

  • 1.
  • 2.
    2 Learning Objectives • TLO#1 – the student will understand how to apply the 5 core processes needed to produce a credible Performance Measurement Baseline. • TLO #2 – the student will understand how to objectively measure progress and use the performance information to control the program. GA
  • 3.
    3 Building a crediblePMB for Wilbur and Orville’s flying machine. • Our talk today uses the Wright Brothers Flyer as an example for developing a Credible PMB • The Urban Legend of Orville and Wilbur's efforts to invent manned flight has been revealed in McCullough’s book. • Their work has all the attributes of the Five Core Processes. GA
  • 4.
    4 There is aMethod to our Madness • If you’re over 60 you’ll recognize this chart template for HIPO, used to describe Inputs, Processes, Outputs we’re using to create a credible Performance Measurement Baseline, measure progress, and control the program • These are the minimum HIPO elements, there can be and should be more. GA
  • 5.
    5 The data andprocesses needed to create a Credible Performance Measurement Baseline GA
  • 6.
    6 A Readable Version TheFive processes needed to build a credible PMB ❶ Define Done in Units of Measure Meaningful to the Decision Makers. ❷ Develop the Plan and Schedule to reach Done as planned. ❸ Define the Resources Needed to Reach Done as Planned. ❹ Adjust Plan for Reducible and Irreducible Risks. ❺ Finalize the Risk Adjusted Measures of Progress Toward Done. GA
  • 7.
    7 Inputs and Outputsfor Building the Credible Performance Measurement Baseline • Customer Capabilities • Time phased budget • Desired completion date • Available technologies • Time phase resources • Reference Class Data • Programmatic and technical risks with probabilities and impacts • Historic uncertainties • Measures of Effectiveness • Measures of Performance • Work Breakdown Structure • Integrated Master Plan • Technical Performance Management Plan • Initial Integrated Master Schedule • Time Phased Staffing Plan • Schedule Reserve • Management Reserve • Risk Register and Mitigation Plans • Adjusted Integrated Master Schedule • Risk Management Plan Inputs Outputs GA
  • 8.
    8 ❶ DEFINE DONE DefineDone in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers for each deliverable in the WBS. Measures of Effectiveness (MOE), Measures of Performance (MOP), Technical Performance Measures (TPM), and …illities are defined before the work starts, for each needed capability that accomplishes the mission or fulfills the Business Case. TC
  • 9.
    9 Systems Engineering ConceptsUsed By The Wright Brothers [1] SE Concept Wright BrothersActivities Operational Concept Vision: clear concept of the system they were developing MissionRequirements: powered flight for substantial timeand distance Scenarios: recognitionof a key scenarioinvolvinglateral control during flight Define the System Boundary Understoodthe need for the pilot to be part of the system Objectives Definitionof distanceand time objectives Derived Requirements Horsepower and weight of the engine Thrust of the propellers Requirements Management Managed weight requirement of the engine carefully Functional Analysis Understood the functions of the airplane, which drove their design process Further understood the functions of the propulsionsubsystem Physical Architecture& Interfaces Matched the physical architecture tothe functions of the airplane Interfaces between the pilot and the control surfaces Interfacebetween the engine and propellers TC
  • 10.
    10 Systems Engineering ConceptsUsed By The Wright Brothers [1] SE Concept Wright BrothersActivities Prototypes and Testing Built a successfullymorecomplex set of gliders before building the airplane First airplane was successful,due to the series of gliders and kites Employed sophisticatedtestingwitheach prototype, atypical of others at the time Trade-Off Decisions Design favoredcontrol of the airplane over stability Test System Extensiveevenduring glider tests Allowed problem identificationand solvingduring all test phases Created wind tunnel to address discrepancy between their test data and the literature Included the careful selectionof the test site Included in the first airplane Verification Best illustratedby testingof the engine to determine whether it met its requirements Validation The final test that proved flight was possible Team Activities Two brothers formed a design-build team TC
  • 11.
    11 Measure of Effectiveness(MoE) Measures of Effectiveness … • Are stated in units meaningful to the buyer, • Focus on capabilities independent of any technical implementation, • Are connected to the mission success. Operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions. MoE’s Belong to the End User “Technical Measurement,” INCOSE–TP–2003–020–01 11 TC
  • 12.
    12 Measure of Performance(MoP) Measures of Performance are … • Attributes that assure the system has the capability and capacity to perform, • Assessment of the system to assure it meets design requirements to satisfy the MoE. Measures that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. “Technical Measurement,” INCOSE–TP–2003–020–01 MoP’s belong to the Program – Developed by the Systems Engineer, Measured By CAMs, and Analyzed by PP&C 12 TC
  • 13.
    13 Technical Performance Measures(TPM) Technical Performance Measures … • Assess design progress, • Define compliance to performance requirements, • Identify technical risk, • Are limited to critical thresholds, • Include projected performance. Attributes that determine how well a system or system element is satisfying or expected to satisfy a technical requirement or goal “Technical Measurement,” INCOSE–TP–2003–020–01 13 TC
  • 14.
    14 What Done LooksLike for the Wright Brothers’ Military Flyer • Propose $25,000 to build and deliver a flyer by 1st week in August 1908 • Conduct Acceptance testing for 30 days thereafter Contract Specification Value/Goal Passenger # Two persons Payload 350 lbs Range 125 miles Air Speed 40 mph Duration Aloft One hour Maneuverability Be steered in all directions w/o difficulty and in perfect control at all times Ease of Use An intelligentman become proficientwithin a reasonable length oftime Logistics Assembled and disassembled within one hour and packed into an Army wagon TC
  • 15.
    15 ❷ DEVELOP APLAN FOR TECHNICAL SUCCESS The Technical Plan shows the sequence of work needed to produce products and services that move the program toward Done. The Technical Plan can take many forms. From a formal Integrated Master Plan / Integrated Master Schedule to a Kanban work plan or Scrum Release/Sprint/Task Plan in Agile Software Development TC
  • 16.
    16 Develop the Planand Schedule • Define the technical approach to building the product that will allow it to meet the performance and effectiveness goals – Identify all the variables that will impact the solution to the technical and operational requirements – Orville and Wilbur used the spiral development approach for the Wright Flyer • Sequence the work to assure the increasing maturity of the deliverables supports the plan to reach Done. TC
  • 17.
    17 The Wright Brothers’Technical Plan • Modify aircraft to reduce weight from 845 to 800 pounds • Modify aircraft and controls for two persons • Increase HP from 21 to 31 horsepower • Apply a Modify – Test – Modify approach • Spend lots of time practicing (and not kill yourself) • Dry run assembly and disassembly procedures TC
  • 18.
    18 ❸ DEFINE THE PROGRAMMATICPLAN The Programmatic Plan describes all the activities that enable the Technical Plan to function properly. What work do we need to do in what order and what’s the cost of that planned work. What facilities, resources, equipment, and materials are needed to reach done as planned. RP
  • 19.
    19 Define the ProgrammaticPlan • Assure the programmatic plan aligns with the technical plan • Qualified Staffing Plan to produce the needed outcomes at the needed time • Facilities and equipment needed to produce the products • Material availability and readiness Plan • Phased funding available to sustain the planned progress of the Technical Plan RP
  • 20.
    20 Wright Brothers’ FlyerResources Needed • Facilities and equipment for modifications – Fabrication hangar @ Kitty Hawk – Launching track – Catapult • Materials (propellers, wood, fabric, sewing supplies, chain, etc.) • Test areas – Kitty Hawk at Kill Devil Hills • Requisite labor skills – Orville & Wilbur Wright – Charlie Furnas (Dayton mechanic) – Charlie Taylor (engine design/builder) – Carpenters at Kitty Hawk (to rebuild the hangar) • Money to support the development/build effort • GFE – Site availability at Ft Myer, VA – Hangar shed at Ft Myer, VA RP
  • 21.
    21 Initial Wright Brothers’Summary Level IMS RP
  • 22.
    22 ❹ ADJUST FORREDUCIBLE AND IRREDUCIBLE RISK Any impediment reduces the probability of success. Each impediment must be identified, a plan to address the impediment developed, each handling strategy applied, monitored, and measured to assure there is an increasing probability of success. GA
  • 23.
    2323 Uncertainties are things wecan not be certain about. Uncertainty is created by our incomplete knowledge; not by our ignorance GA
  • 24.
    24 2 Types ofUncertainty – Both Create Programmatic and Technical Risk Uncertainty Irreducible (Aleatory) Reducible (Epistemic) Natural Variability Ambiguity Ontological Uncertainty Probabilistic Events Probabilistic Impacts Periods of Exposure GA
  • 25.
    25 Assemble a credibleWBS and Integrated Master Plan / Integrated Master Schedule (IMP/IMS) –WBS Dictionary says what will be built –IMP/IMS says how, where, when, and what will be built and the processes to build it. Identify Reducible – Event Based – uncertainties and the resulting risks from WBS Dictionary and IMP Narratives in the Risk Register Put these risks in the Risk Register, with probability and impacts Develop risk reduction plans and place them in the IMS using CBB funding. How to Build a Risk Adjusted IMS in 8 Steps 0 1 2 3 RP
  • 26.
    26 Assess the Irreducible– naturally occurring – uncertainties and the resulting schedule and cost risks in the WBS and IMS. Use Monte Carlo Simulation to determine schedule margin and budget impacts from work activity durations to handle these irreducible uncertainties. Formulate schedule and cost margin to protect key item deliverables in the IMS. How to Build a Risk Adjusted IMS in 8 Steps 4 5 6 RP
  • 27.
    27 Determine cost andschedule impacts of unmitigated risks in the risk register with their exposure and impact and place them in Management Reserve and Schedule Margin Assemble mitigated Irreducible (Aleatory) and Reducible (Epistemic) risks with the unmitigated event– based risks into the Total Allocated Budget – Risk handling plans included in baseline for reducible and irreducible in the PMB. – Risk Handling in Management Reserve. Building a Risk Adjusted IMS in 8 Steps (Concluded) 8 7 Adjust the IMS with rearranging parallel or serial work, changing scope, or add resources. RP
  • 28.
    28 Wright Brothers’ RiskRegister and Risk Strategy 1. Control. Buy $1.6K of key spare parts and send to Kitty Hawk 2. Accept. Add schedule margin in schedule 3. Accept. Add schedule margin in schedule 4. Accept. Add schedule margin in schedule TC
  • 29.
    29 Wright Brothers’ 1908Flyer Management Reserve Calculation Element Cost CL Comments P80 Cost $19,696 80% This is the cost at the 80% CL assuming only non-reducible risks in the RR Deterministic BACf $16,355 < 1% Final BAC based on the resource-loaded schedule MR (P80 Cost - BACf) 3,341 Calculated MR MR as a percent of BACf 20.4% Caculated MR % of BACf TC
  • 30.
    30 Wright Brothers’ 1908Flyer Schedule Margin Calculation Element Finish Date CL Months Work Days IMS Deterministic Pf Duration and Date:= 7.25 152 9/15/1908 5% Need Duration and Date:= 7.75 163 9/30/1908 80% Schedule Margin:= 1 11 Duration TC
  • 31.
    31 Schedule Margin inFinal WB’s Flyer IMS TC
  • 32.
    32 ❺ DEVELOP OBJECTIVE MEASURESOF PROGRESS For each deliverable develop an objective measure of progress to plan using physical percent complete supported by Quantifiable Backup Data (Objective Criteria) Use these measures to assess progress and identify variances requiring corrective actions to Keep the Program Green. GA
  • 33.
    33 Objective Measures ofProgress to Plan • Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) • Measures of Performance (MOP) • Technical Performance Measures (TPM) – Weight TPM Plan – Risk Burn Down Plan – Schedule Margin Burn Down Plan • All the other …ilities – Availability (assemble within one hour) – Usability (simple in construction and operation) GA
  • 34.
    34 Weight TPM forWright Brothers 1908 Flyer 770 780 790 800 810 820 830 840 850 860 870 15-Feb-08 15-Mar-08 15-Apr-08 15-May-08 15-Jun-08 15-Jul-08 Pounds 15- Feb-08 28- Feb-08 15- Mar-08 31- Mar-08 15- Apr-08 30- Apr-08 15- May- 08 31- May- 08 15-Jun- 08 30-Jun- 08 15-Jul- 08 Upper Limit 860 855 845 835 825 815 800 800 800 800 800 Planned 845 840 830 820 810 805 800 800 800 800 800 Target 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 GA
  • 35.
    35 What’s Next • TLO#1 – the student will learn how to produce an integrated report of the Technicalprogress consistentwith the Programmatic progress, detect variances,and suggestcorrective actions. • TLO #2 – the student will understand how to objectively measure progress and use the performance to manage the program. • Earned Value Managementis part of a Technicaland Programmatic control system – Integrated risk, performance, effectiveness,technicaland other measures provide leading indicators of program performance.
  • 36.
    36 References 1. “The Conceptsof Systems Engineering as Practiced by the Wright Brothers,” Dennis Buede, Stevens Institute of Technology School of Engineering, Hoboken, NJ 07030
  • 37.
  • 38.
    38 Learning Objectives • TLO#1 – the student will learn how to produce an integrated report of the Technical progress consistent with the Programmatic progress, detect variances, and suggest corrective actions. • TLO #2 – the student will understand how to objectively measure progress and use the performance to manage the program. • Earned Value Management is part of a Technical and Programmatic control system – Integrated risk, performance, effectiveness, technical and other measures provide leading indicators of program performance. GA
  • 39.
    39 In Part 1,we talked about … • Addressed the five core processes needed to produce a credible Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). • Showed how to use objective measures of progress and how to inform program performance with these measures • In Part 2, you’ll see how to execute the program with this information. GA
  • 40.
    40 Executing the PerformanceMeasurement Baseline GA
  • 41.
    41 A Readable Version TheFour processes needed to execute the credible PMB ❶ Compare Technical and Programmatic Actuals to Plan ❷ Compare BCWP and Cost and Schedule Performance Data with Management Reserve (MR) and Schedule Margin (SM) balances ❸ Revise Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) and Risk Register ❹ Run or Rerun Monte Carlo Simulation GA
  • 42.
    42 Inputs and Outputsfor Building the Credible Performance Measurement Baseline • Customer Capabilities • Time phased budget • Desired completion date • Available technologies • Time phase resources • Reference Class Data • Programmatic and technical risks with probabilities and impacts • Historic uncertainties • Measures of Effectiveness • Measures of Performance • Work Breakdown Structure • Integrated Master Plan • Technical Performance Management Plan • Initial Integrated Master Schedule • Time Phased Staffing Plan • Schedule Reserve • Management Reserve • Risk Register and Mitigation Plans • Adjusted Integrated Master Schedule • Risk Management Plan Inputs Outputs GA
  • 43.
    43 ❶ COMPARE PLANNEDTO ACTUAL PERFORMANCE Compare technical and programmatic performance to the planned performance. Identify variances needed to make decisions about corrective actions to Keep the Program Green. TC
  • 44.
    44 Compare Planned toActual Performance • Physical Percent Complete – Planned – Actual • Do this at the Work Package level – Quantifiable Backup Data – Avoid averaging out the variances at the Control Account level Objectively assess accomplishments at the Work Performance Level EIA-748-C, page 1 TC
  • 45.
    45 Wright Brothers’ Technical,Cost and Schedule Progress 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 770 780 790 800 810 820 830 840 850 860 870 15-Feb-08 15-Mar-08 15-Apr-08 15-May-08 15-Jun-08 15-Jul-08 CPI/SPI Pounds WBs' 1908 Flyer Integrated Progress (2/28/1908) Upper Limit Planned Target Achieved SPI CPI Compare side-by-side the Technical Performance (Weight) with the Programmatic performance CPI and SPI TC
  • 46.
    46 ❷ COMPARE MRAND SM BALANCES Using the performance data and the variances, the computed BCWP from measures of Physical Percent Complete. Assess planned Management Reserve and Schedule Margin with the current MR and SM and inform EAC and ETC from past performance. TC
  • 47.
    47 Compare BCWP withMR and SM • With actual BCWP assess impact on Estimate at Completion and Estimate To Complete. • Assess planned Management Reserve against actual Management Reserve • Assess planned Schedule Margin against actual Schedule Margin • Assess planned risk burn down against actual Risk Burn Down TC
  • 48.
    48 Wright Brothers’ MRPlanned Use vs Actuals $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 WB 1908 Flyer Planned vs Actual MR Use (15 May 1908) MR Planned Balance MR Actual Balance TC
  • 49.
    49 Wright Brothers’ ScheduleMargin Burn Planned Use vs Actuals In May, when the schedule margin went below plan, immediate corrective action is needed to get back on Schedule Margin Plan 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 15-Feb-08 15-Mar-08 15-Apr-08 15-May-08 15-Jun-08 15-Jul-08 15-Aug-08 15-Sep-08 Days WB 1908 Flyer Planned vs Actual Schedule Margin Use (15 May 1908) Schedule Margin Plan Balance Schedule Margin Actual Balance This dip characterized as negative slack RP
  • 50.
    50 ❸ REVISE IMSAND RISK REGISTER With this data, update the Integrated Master Schedule and Risk levels in the Risk Register for future periods of performance.
  • 51.
    51 Revise IMS andRisk Register • Every reporting period update the Risk Register with actual assessment of – Reduced risks – Actual margin needed for unmitigated and irreducible risks • Adjust Risk Register contents for current assessments – New risks – Retired risks – Changes in risk attributes • Update ETC, EAC, and ECD with the statused IMS and Risk Register TC
  • 52.
    52 ❹ RUN ANDRERUN THE SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS Schedule Risk Analysis (per DI-MGMT-81861) at periodic intervals to confirm the Estimate to Complete and the Estimate At Completion are still within acceptable values to ensure the probability of program success. TC
  • 53.
    53 Run and RerunSchedule Risk Analysis • With updated Risk Register – rerun the Schedule Risk Analysis • Reassess EAC, ECD, and ETC • Determine sensitivity indices (which elements are most likely to cause the forward plan to go awry) • If needed – Replan IMS, possibly with more schedule margin – Add resources – Adjust technical solution TC
  • 54.
    54 Summary • Cost andSchedule performance informed by Technical Performance – At IBR TechnicalPerformance plan defines the work activities in the IMS • Build a risk adjusted PMB – Reducible and irreducible risks in the risk register, traceable to the IMS. • Budget active mitigation activities • Protect unmitigated risks with ManagementReserve and Schedule Margin • Make sure programmatic data is aligned with Technical Performance Data • Perform these activities continually during execution to Keep the Program Green TC
  • 55.