Definition of probability, Binomial distribution,
Normal distribution, Poisson’s distribution,
properties – problems
2
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Basic terminology
3
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Basic terminology
4
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Basic terminology
5
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Mathematical / classical probability equation
6
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Mathematical / classical probability equation
7
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
8
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Exercise
Exercise
9
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Exercise Probability Distribution for tablet attributes
1
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Exercise
Condition 2. If specked and chipped events are not mutually exclusive
equation is … P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
1
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Exercise
1
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Exercise Probability Distribution where attributes are not all mutually
exclusive.
1
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
Exercise
The multiplicative law of probability when are not mutually exclusive
1
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
1
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
1
P r o b a b i l i t y
2022
with discrete data
1
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
Example: the result of treatment with an antibiotic is that an infection is
either cured or not cured within five days.
1
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
2022
1
Probability distribution of a binomial outcome based on a
single observation.
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
expansion of the expression:
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
expansion of the expression:
- For, the result of treatment with an antibiotic , p = 0.75 and q =0.25
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
expansion of the expression:
- Further expansion of equation
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
expansion of the expression:
- Consider the binomial distribution with p = 0.75 and N = 4 for the
antibiotic example.
- There are five possible outcomes
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
expansion of the expression:
1. no patients are cured X = 0
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
expansion of the expression:
2. three patients are cured X =3
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
Exercise : Calculate the probability of one success in 100 trials if p =
0.01
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION – with continuous data
2
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION – with continuous data
3
2022
B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
- As value of x increases numerically on either side of top (x= μ ), the
value of P(x) decreases rapidly
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
- The equation for the normal distribution (normal probability density)
- Where,
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
- In this example, the histogram of tablet weights looks like a normal
curve.
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
3
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
The standard normal probability curve has a
mean of 0 and a s.d. of 1
- The equation becomes..
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
The standard normal curve has a mean of 0 and a s.d. of 1
- a table of cumulative areas under the standard normal curve, giving
the area below Z.
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
the Z transformation
4
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
Limits,
no tablet may differ from the average weight by more than 20%
5
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
the Z transformation less than 80.96mg and fining area using the Table
5
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
the Z transformation less than 121.44mg and fining area using the Table
5
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
the Z transformation
5
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
5
2022
N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
5
2022
P o i s s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
5
2022
P o i s s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
5
2022
P o i s s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
5
2022
P o i s s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
5
2022
P o i s s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
6
2022
P o i s s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
1. What is the probability that three of six patients will be cured if the
probability of a cure is 60%? Ans = 0.276
2. What is the probability of observing exactly one head in 10 tosses of
a coin? Ans = 0.0098
3. during production of a dosage form, the pharmaceutical company
normally expects to have 2% of the tablets in a batch to have less
than 95% of the labeled amount of a drug (defective). If 20 tablets are
randomly sampled from a batch, what is the probability of finding
three defective tablets? Ans = 0.0067
6
E X E R C I S E
2022
4. If the mean and standard deviation of the potency of a batch of
tablets are 50 and 5 mg, respectively, what proportion of the tablets
have a potency between 40 and 60 mg?
Ans =0.954
5. Serum sodium values for normal persons have a mean of 140 mEq/L
and a s.d. of 2.5. What is the probability that a person’s serum
sodium will be between 137 and 142 mEq/L?
Ans = 0.673
6
E X E R C I S E
2022
End
Reference:
Ph’ceutical statistics- Practical and clinical
applications –Sanford Bolton
Fundamental of Statistics –S.C. Guptha
Net Source
of the topic

Probability ,Binomial distribution, Normal distribution, Poisson’s distribution _ Biostatistics and Research Methodology.pptx

  • 1.
    Definition of probability,Binomial distribution, Normal distribution, Poisson’s distribution, properties – problems
  • 2.
    2 P r ob a b i l i t y 2022
  • 3.
    Basic terminology 3 P ro b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 4.
    Basic terminology 4 P ro b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 5.
    Basic terminology 5 P ro b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 6.
    Mathematical / classicalprobability equation 6 P r o b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 7.
    Mathematical / classicalprobability equation 7 P r o b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 8.
    8 P r ob a b i l i t y 2022 Exercise
  • 9.
    Exercise 9 P r ob a b i l i t y 2022
  • 10.
    Exercise Probability Distributionfor tablet attributes 1 P r o b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 11.
    Exercise Condition 2. Ifspecked and chipped events are not mutually exclusive equation is … P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) 1 P r o b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 12.
    Exercise 1 P r ob a b i l i t y 2022
  • 13.
    Exercise Probability Distributionwhere attributes are not all mutually exclusive. 1 P r o b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 14.
    Exercise The multiplicative lawof probability when are not mutually exclusive 1 P r o b a b i l i t y 2022
  • 15.
    1 P r ob a b i l i t y 2022
  • 16.
    1 P r ob a b i l i t y 2022
  • 17.
    with discrete data 1 2022 Bi n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 18.
    Example: the resultof treatment with an antibiotic is that an infection is either cured or not cured within five days. 1 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n 2022
  • 19.
    1 Probability distribution ofa binomial outcome based on a single observation. 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 20.
    2 2022 B i no m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 21.
    expansion of theexpression: 2 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 22.
    expansion of theexpression: - For, the result of treatment with an antibiotic , p = 0.75 and q =0.25 2 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 23.
    expansion of theexpression: - Further expansion of equation 2 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 24.
    expansion of theexpression: - Consider the binomial distribution with p = 0.75 and N = 4 for the antibiotic example. - There are five possible outcomes 2 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 25.
    expansion of theexpression: 1. no patients are cured X = 0 2 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 26.
    expansion of theexpression: 2. three patients are cured X =3 2 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 27.
    2 2022 B i no m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 28.
    Exercise : Calculatethe probability of one success in 100 trials if p = 0.01 2 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 29.
    THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION– with continuous data 2 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 30.
    THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION– with continuous data 3 2022 B i n o m i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 31.
    3 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 32.
    3 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 33.
    - As valueof x increases numerically on either side of top (x= μ ), the value of P(x) decreases rapidly 3 2022 N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 34.
    - The equationfor the normal distribution (normal probability density) - Where, 3 2022 N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 35.
    3 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 36.
    3 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 37.
    3 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 38.
    - In thisexample, the histogram of tablet weights looks like a normal curve. 3 2022 N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 39.
    3 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 40.
    4 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 41.
    4 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 42.
    The standard normalprobability curve has a mean of 0 and a s.d. of 1 - The equation becomes.. 4 2022 N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 43.
    The standard normalcurve has a mean of 0 and a s.d. of 1 - a table of cumulative areas under the standard normal curve, giving the area below Z. 4 2022 N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 44.
    4 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 45.
    4 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 46.
    4 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 47.
    4 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 48.
    4 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 49.
    the Z transformation 4 2022 No r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 50.
    Limits, no tablet maydiffer from the average weight by more than 20% 5 2022 N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 51.
    the Z transformationless than 80.96mg and fining area using the Table 5 2022 N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 52.
    the Z transformationless than 121.44mg and fining area using the Table 5 2022 N o r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 53.
    the Z transformation 5 2022 No r m a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 54.
    5 2022 N o rm a l D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 55.
    5 2022 P o is s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 56.
    5 2022 P o is s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 57.
    5 2022 P o is s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 58.
    5 2022 P o is s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 59.
    5 2022 P o is s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 60.
    6 2022 P o is s o n D i s t r i b u t i o n
  • 61.
    1. What isthe probability that three of six patients will be cured if the probability of a cure is 60%? Ans = 0.276 2. What is the probability of observing exactly one head in 10 tosses of a coin? Ans = 0.0098 3. during production of a dosage form, the pharmaceutical company normally expects to have 2% of the tablets in a batch to have less than 95% of the labeled amount of a drug (defective). If 20 tablets are randomly sampled from a batch, what is the probability of finding three defective tablets? Ans = 0.0067 6 E X E R C I S E 2022
  • 62.
    4. If themean and standard deviation of the potency of a batch of tablets are 50 and 5 mg, respectively, what proportion of the tablets have a potency between 40 and 60 mg? Ans =0.954 5. Serum sodium values for normal persons have a mean of 140 mEq/L and a s.d. of 2.5. What is the probability that a person’s serum sodium will be between 137 and 142 mEq/L? Ans = 0.673 6 E X E R C I S E 2022
  • 63.
    End Reference: Ph’ceutical statistics- Practicaland clinical applications –Sanford Bolton Fundamental of Statistics –S.C. Guptha Net Source of the topic