The document provides an overview of key concepts in probability theory including: - Definitions of probability, experiments, sample space, and events - Approaches to probability including classical, statistical, and subjective - Rules of probability including addition, multiplication, and conditional probability - Bayes' theorem and how it differs from conditional probability - Random variables and their probability distributions The document is intended to introduce students to probability concepts and their applications in decision making under uncertainty.

1. Program : MBA Semester : I Subject Code : MBF103 Subject Name : Statistics for Management Book Code : B1129 Unit number : 2 Unit Title :Probability Lecture Number : 9 & 10. Lecture Title : Introduction to Probability HOME NEXT

4. Introduction Every human activity has an element of uncertainty. Uncertainty affects the decision making process. In your daily lives, you very often use the word ‘probably’, like, probably it may rain today; probably the share price may go up in the next week. Therefore, there is a need to handle uncertainty systematically and scientifically. Mathematicians and statisticians developed a separate field of mathematics and named it as ‘Probability Theory’. The theory of probability helps us to make wiser decisions by reducing the degree of uncertainty. Unit-5 Probability HOME NEXT PREVIOUS

10. Conditional Probability Sometimes we wish to know the probability that the price of a particular petroleum product will rise, given that the finance minister has increased the petrol price. Such probabilities are known as conditional probabilities. If A and B are dependent events then the probability of occurrence of A and B is given by P(A∩B)=P(A).P(B/A) =P(B).P(A/B) It follows that P(A/B)=P(A∩B)/P(B) P(B/A)=P(A∩B)/P(A) www.shodor.org/.../discussions/ConditionalProb / Unit-5 Probability HOME NEXT PREVIOUS

12. Baye’s Probability Baye’s Theorem states that if A1, A2,……. An are ‘n’ mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and B is a common event to all theorems then probability of occurrence of A1 given that B has already occurred is given by Unit-5 Probability HOME NEXT PREVIOUS