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Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014

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Presentation given by Lawrence Yun at the #NARAnnual conference in New Orleans, November 2014.

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Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014

  1. Mel Watt Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director
  2. Real Estate Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® Presentation at NAR Annual Residential Forum New Orleans, LA November 7, 2014
  3. Expectations of Firm Profitability (over the next 12-months) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Residential Firm Commercial Firm Decrease About Same Increase
  4. Consumer and REALTOR® Confidence 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 - Jan 2000 - Oct 2001 - Jul 2002 - Apr 2003 - Jan 2003 - Oct 2004 - Jul 2005 - Apr 2006 - Jan 2006 - Oct 2007 - Jul 2008 - Apr 2009 - Jan 2009 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2011 - Apr 2012 - Jan 2012 - Oct 2013 - Jul 2014 - Apr Consumer REALTOR
  5. Zoom-in Consumer and REALTOR® Confidence 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Consumer REALTOR
  6. Monthly Pending Sales Index … Making Upward U-Turn (Seasonally Adjusted) 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 2011 - Jan 2011 - Mar 2011 - May 2011 - July 2011 - Sep 2011 - Nov 2012 - Jan 2012- Mar 2012 - May 2012 - Jul 2012 - Sep 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jan 2013 - Mar 2013 - May 2013 - Jul 2013 - Sep 2013 - Nov 2014 - Jan 2014 - Mar 2014 - May 2014 - Jul 2014 - Sep Source: NAR
  7. Existing + New Home Sales 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0
  8. Homebuilder Confidence (NAHB Market Index) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun 2014 - Jan 2014 - Aug
  9. Single Family Housing Starts … ½ the Normal 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan Thousand units
  10. Multifamily Housing Starts … Back to Normal 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan Thousand units
  11. Nationwide Home Price Recovery (Almost Doubled over 20 years) 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1 FHFA Home Price Index
  12. Home Price Growth from 1995 San Francisco, Miami, Dallas 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1 San Francisco Miami Dallas
  13. Household Net Worth ($5,500 vs. $195,500) $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 x31 x36 x46 x46 x34 Homeowner net worth ranges from 31 to 46 Renter Homeowner x36 Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
  14. From 2010 to Today • Homeowners – Recovering Wealth for those who bought during the bubble years – Accumulating Wealth for those who bought since 2010 • Renters – No progress
  15. Homeowner Households from 2010 (Decreased by 1 million) 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 In thousands
  16. Renter Households from 2010 (Increased by 4 million) 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 37,000 39,000 41,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 In thousands
  17. Homeownership Rate 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1
  18. Homeownership Rate by Age Group 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1 65 and over 55-64 45-54 35-44 Under 35
  19. Harvard Elderly Housing Study • One in Five Americans will be 65 or over by 2030 • Homeowners who have paid off mortgages before retirement have lower housing costs and have equity cushion health care expenses • Renters face high housing costs and force millions of low-income older adults to sacrifice spending other necessities, including food and health care
  20. Annual Income by Age $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 50-64 65-79 80 +
  21. Do Elderly have Mortgage? 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 50-64 65 and Over 1992 1998 2004 2007 2010
  22. First-time Buyer Share (Less than 30% of All Buyers for 18 months) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Among only primary owner-occupants (excluding investors) = 33% in 2014 … Lowest since 1987
  23. 30-year Mortgage Rates 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan
  24. Where Are Young People Hiding? • 57 million Americans or 18.1% of the population live in a multi-generational family household in 2012, – double the number who lived in such households in 1980 • Of those who are 25-34: – 20% of the unemployed live with parents – 12% of employed live with parents Pew Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  25. Student Loan (in $billion) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
  26. Student Loans and Homeownership
  27. Desire of Gen Y to Buy a Home? • 75% believe home ownership is an important long-term goal • 73% believe ownership is an excellent investment • 59% of young renters (18 to 39) believe owning a home makes more sense, but 73% of young renters also believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today • REALTOR® Education Opportunity – Many young people think 20 percent down payment is needed ! Fannie Mae, 2013 Demand Institute Housing and Community Survey
  28. Opening the Credit Box • FICO New Method • Thank You Director Mel Watt – But, please clarify put-back risk so that lenders can be confident • Not Yet a Thank You Secretary Julian Castro – FHA premiums need to come down commensurate with falling default rate • Historic low mortgage default rates on recent vintages (2010-2014)
  29. 10 best cities for millennials to buy a home By MarketWatch Published: Aug 3, 2014 8:14 a.m. ET
  30. Millennial Housing Demand Returns • Austin • Dallas-Ft. Worth • Denver • Des Moines • Grand Rapids • Minneapolis • New Orleans • Ogden • Salt Lake City • Seattle-Tacoma
  31. The Economist – July 19, 2014
  32. Annual GDP Growth (9 straight years of subpar growth) -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
  33. Jobs (8 million lost … 10 million gained) 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 140000 142000 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - May 2013 - Nov 2014 - May In thousands
  34. Percent Change in Non-farm Employment (Sept 2014/Sept 2013)
  35. REALTORS® Confidence Index*: Outlook in Next Six Months for Single-Family Homes Based on July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys *An index above 50 means there are more respondents having “moderate” or “strong” outlook than respondents with “weak” outlook.
  36. Unemployment Rate 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul 2014 - Jan 2014 - Jul
  37. Weekly New Unemployment Insurance Claims 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun 2014 - Jan 2014 - Aug In thousands
  38. Employment Rate 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul 2014 - Jan 2014 - Jul
  39. “Take This Job and Shove It … I ain’t working here no more” 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul 2014 - Jan 2014 - Jul Quit Rate in thousands
  40. Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy for 6 years!) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 % Fed Funds 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  41. Non-worrisome CPI Inflation – Yet COLA of 1.7% in 2015 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun 2014 - Jan 2014 - Aug
  42. Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 3%) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul 2014 - Jan 2014 - Jul Owners' Equivalent Rent Renters' Rent
  43. Monetary Policy • Quantitative Easing … Finished • Fed Funds Rate … hike in 2015 Q1/Q2 • Earlier Move to Tighten because of Inflation Pressure • Long-term Steady State Rate (2016 onwards) .. 10 year Treasury at 5.0% • Mortgage Rates reaching 6% by 2016
  44. Inventory of Homes for Sale 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0
  45. Shrinking Shadow Inventory (but not in CT, NY, NJ) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1 % of mortgages in foreclosure process or seriously delinquent
  46. Distressed Property Sales (% of total sales) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2008 - Oct 2009 - Feb 2009 - Jun 2009 - Oct 2010 - Feb 2010 - Jun 2010 - Oct 2011 - Feb 2011 - Jun 2011 - Oct 2012 - Feb 2012 - Jun 2012 - Oct 2013 - Feb 2013 - Jun 2013 - Oct 2014 - Feb 2014 - Jun Foreclosure Short Sale
  47. Household Net Worth at All-Time High 85000 80000 75000 70000 65000 60000 55000 50000 45000 40000 $ billion
  48. Vacation Home Sales 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 - In thousands 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  49. Falling Birth Rate in the U.S. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1909 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Per 1000 Residents
  50. U.S. Legal Immigration 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
  51. Next China? … Mexico + Latin America!
  52. Sales to International Buyers Increased Both in Terms of Transactions and Price Estimated Sales Dollar Volume of U.S. Residential Property $ 66.4 to International Buyers ( in Billion Dollars)* $ 82.5 $68.2 $92.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 Estimate is for 12 month period April 2013 - March 2014.
  53. Canada Leads in Number of Transactions China Leads in Dollar Volume International Transactions by Country of Origin Brazil Canada China* France Germany India Japan Mexico Russia United Kingdom 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2010 1% 23% 9% 3% 4% 5% 1% 10% 3% 9% 2011 3% 23% 9% 4% 4% 7% 2% 7% 1% 7% 2012 3% 24% 12% 3% 3% 6% 1% 8% 2% 6% 2013 2% 23% 12% 2% 3% 5% 1% 8% 2% 5% 2014 2% 19% 16% 2% 3% 5% 2% 9% 1% 5%
  54. Florida—First Choice for International Buyers
  55. Economic Forecast 2013 2014 Likely 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast GDP Growth 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% Job Growth +2.3 million +2.5 million +2.5 million +2.6 million CPI Inflation 1.5% 1.6% 2.7% 3.3% Consumer Confidence 73 87 95 98 10-year Treasury 2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 4.3%
  56. Housing Forecast 2013 2014 Likely 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast Housing Starts 925,000 1.0 million 1.3 million 1.4 million New Home Sales 430,000 440,000 620,000 700,000 Existing Home Sales 5.1 million 4.9 million 5.3 million 5.4 million Median Price Growth + 11.5% + 5.3% + 4% + 4% 30-year Rate 4.0% 4.2% 4.9% 6.0% Underwriting Standards Strict Strict Transition Normal
  57. Median Expected Price Change of REALTORS® in Next 12 Months, By State Based on July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys
  58. Let’s Spin the Bottle !
  59. How Young Are REALTORS® ? 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Under 30 In 30s In 40s In 50s In 60s Retiree Working Age
  60. Spin the Globe … Find the Source of Improving Standard of Living
  61. When, How, What, Why? • British Glorious Revolution of 1688 – William and Mary arrive to say … – Power not with King but with people via Parliament – No Taxation with Representation – Life, Liberty, and (Acquire) Property • American Revolution of 1776 – Power resides not with King but with people – No Taxation with Representation – Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness
  62. Participants in Democracy to Protect Property Rights!

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