Oracle Demantra - Demand Planning Overview
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This document provides an overview of Demantra Demand Planning capabilities and the standard demand planning process using Demantra. It discusses how Demantra can help solve common demand planning problems by providing statistical forecasting, handling multiple demand signals and hierarchies, and enabling collaboration. It then outlines the standard process which involves automatically downloading customer demand forecasts, generating statistical forecasts, approving and finalizing forecasts, and loading the final forecast into ASCP for supply planning.
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Oracle Demantra - Demand Planning Overview
- 1. Demantra Demand Planning Overview Mihir Jhaveri
- 2. 2 Index • What Demantra brings in? • How problems can be solved? • Standard process 2
- 3. Actual Reality about-Demand Planning
- 4. 4 Demand Management: Most of Planners feel….. • Difficult to aggregate forecasting at multiple levels Category Level/Family Level/Product Level/Customer Level ..and more.. • Long forecasting cycles – End-to-End cycles are time confusing • Batch Process – real time information is not present • Forecast accuracy- Poor forecast accuracy leads to unsatisfied customers • Not scalable:- most companies don’t know how to deal with increased number of customers and opportunties • Factors– its difficult to apply seasonality and other factors 4
- 5. 5 • Too many versions of the same forecast is present • Revenue Planning is being done offline / manually • Manual Efforts require to collate the data such as shipment history, backlog. • Lacks the ability to archive various forecasts • No visibility of off-cycle forecast changes • Different departments forecast in different units of measure, and thus cannot be merged to have a single demand plan – Marketing: % of market share by brand – Sales: revenue by customer/territory – Finance: Revenue and net profits per quarter – Supply Chain: SKU by ship-to location (advanced) 5 Demand Management: Most of Planners feel….. continue..
- 6. 6 End this is what happens
- 7. Near Accurate …can lead to Opportunities • Improved reporting at all levels of an organization • Better measurement and metrics • Feed the best forecast to plan and generate commitment plan back from ASCP • Ability to capture multiple forecasts and compare • Enable Statistical forecasting • Monitoring of demand forecast at multiple levels • More accurate demand forecast • Ability to provide better & fast supply dates for changes/enquiries • Easy delegation/approval process thru workflow • Role base security to avoid sharing of unnecessary data
- 9. Demantra’s End-to-End Solution Shape Demand Understand Demand Respond to Demand Plan for Demand Demand Management Trade Promotion Management Real-Time Sales and Operations Planning Business Process Platform
- 10. 10 Demantra: Forecasting Capabilities • Statistical forecasting using Causal factors • Inbuilt New product introduction Mapping • Unlimited Hierarchies, Dimensions, Levels and Attributes • Mixed/Multiple Demand Signals • Ability to measure/track the past performance • Bayesian Collaboration 10
- 11. Oracle Demantra – Causal Forecasting Estimating techniques based on the assumption that the variable to be forecast (dependent variable) has cause-and-effect relationship with one or more other (independent) variables.
- 12. Reaction to Market Demantra can sense the causal factors and catalysts for demand change and apply them for future demands It has a unique capability of separating trends & cycles from the causal factors
- 13. Granular Analysis From “what happened” … To comprehensive understanding of promotion impact 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Week 1 Week 6 Week 11 Week Cases Actual TPR Display 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Week 1 Week 6 Week 11 Week Cases Cannibalization Forward buying Pantry loading Competitive switching Category growth Baseline Actual Net lift Baseline TPR Display Gross lift
- 14. 14 Demantra: S&OP 14 Actual Shipments Promotional Execution In-Flight Consumption Data Sales Marketing Manufacturing Finance Executive Product Develop- ment Consensus Promotional & Volume Plans Strategic Plans Capacity Plans PhaseIn/Phase Out Products Demand Plans Profitability Service Levels Inventory Levels Promotion Effectiveness Plan Accuracy AlertsExceptions Inputs Outputs Real-time
- 15. EBS Planning Footprint Demantra Predictive Trade Planning and Optimization Sales and Operations Planning Demand Management DemandChainPlanning Oracle APS Strategic Network Design Inventory Optimization Adv. Supply Planning SupplyChainPlanning Global Order Promising Collaborative Planning Production Scheduling Supply Chain Execution E-Business Suite EBS ERP CRM Seamless Integration
- 16. 16 • Excellent Offline Capabilities • Oracle Demantra anywhere • Dynamic Open Link to Excel and other BI tools • Consensus Planning • Reporting & analysis • Collaboration Platform - alerts & exceptions 16 Other capabilities
- 17. Projection Workbook Manual Supply Plan Used in Production Oracle CONSUMPTION ASCP Supply Plan2 Excel Adjustment FilesbydemandClass Demand Management – AS IS
- 18. Demantra What would you see in it?
- 19. Responding to Demand Who’s online from your collaboration group User defined Realtime KPI’s Workflow and Exception based Tasks and Alerts User Defined CPFR Worksheets Realtime Status Information
- 20. Analytics To Understand Demand
- 21. 21 Sales Input Sales Accuracy For Incentives Key Account Plan Information Account Trade and Consumer Promotions Calendar Consensus Example: Internal Collaboration
- 22. Configurable Planning Environment to Match Your Planning Process Historical Info Forecast Override Management Approval Final Plan Flexible Business Hierarchy Marketing Activities
- 23. Collaborate with Customers Partner Inputs: XML,EDI or Manual Production Mix Partner Forecast Metrics
- 24. Business Modeler Scheduler Engine Admin Workflow Builder Other Components
- 25. Demantra Solution Out of Box: Standard
- 26. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP •With Demantra we will have role base security for viewing and updating the data •Activities will be automated thru work flow, which will include notification and approval steps also •Data integration – (Upload and download) will be automatic Std Process
- 27. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP Once the customer file is ready & available in a folder, its automatically download to Demantra File can be at SKU level or at the higher level, if it’s at the higher level, it will be propagated to the lower level based on actual sales data Std Process
- 28. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP Once customer files are downloaded, a notification is sent to demand Plan manager Demand Planner verifies the data to see if everything looks ok. Demand Planner communicates back with customers if something is not correct Std Process
- 29. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP •Sales quantities are loaded on a daily basis from ERP instance •Demand Planner approves the forecast downloaded which triggers into Demantra Demand Planning Engine Std Process
- 30. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP •As a result of Demand Planning engine run, statistical forecast is generated based on the actual sales history •System sends notification to demand planners confirming the availability of statistical forecast Std Process
- 31. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP •Demand Planners compare the results of statistical forecast with actual forecast •Planners can choose the best fit of all the available forecasts, also they have the flexibility of choosing a forecast combination of available forecasts •Planners send the final forecast for approval. Std Process
- 32. 32 Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP •Demand manager may see the forecast on the aggregated level and may make necessary changes to it •After manager approves the forecast, its available for uploading into ASCP Std Process
- 33. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP •Final forecast is loaded to ASCP Plan from where it can be used to generate the supply plan & allocation data for ATP inquiries •ASCP can plan can be sent back to Demantra as the commitment plan which can be shared with customers Std Process
- 34. Brand Product Line Category Style Product Hierarchy Std combinations SKU 2 38 4 Appro 250 Appro 2500
- 35. Thank you