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30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks by John Mitchell
- 1. 30 years of IPCC Science- Introductory remarks John Mitchell, MetOffice Hadley Centre IPCC 30th Year Celebration, Paris, 13 th March 2018
- 2. © Crown copyright Met Office 1990 AR1: The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more. PROGRESS – DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION 1996 AR2: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate 2001 AR3: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed in the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. 2013 AR5; It is extremely ………….
- 3. © Crown copyright Met Office CONTINUITY – PREDICTIONS OF RATE OF CHANGE OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE 2013 Include Carbon Cycle 2.5-4.5K 1990 First predictions 2-5 K 1996 Include aerosols 2-3.5K 2001 Refining aerosols 2-4.5K
- 4. © Crown copyright Met Office How big will the warming be? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 AR5 What will the regional changes be? WORK IN PROGRESS
- 5. © Crown copyright Met Office How IPCC has changed climate science? Closer link between scientists and policy makers (key) Accelerated progress, expanded the field (From 4 to 21 modelling institutes) Climate change data now widely available (WMO/CMIP 5 – 2323 papers 330Kyrs 2Pb data)
- 6. © Crown copyright Met Office IPCC-19-32-36-42-58mm Questions Are the working groups sufficiently aligned? As subject matures progress slows- more papers, less content, author fatigue Has the assessment process become too big? Slows response to new issues