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Dr  Pali  Lehohla
Statistician-­General
What  do  South  Africans  die  of?
Findings  from  registered  deaths,  2015
#StatsSA
Death:
A permanent  
disappearance  of  
all  evidence  of  life  
after  a  live  birth  
has  occurred
From  death  to  statistics
Reporting  of  causes  of  death  
is  based  on  the  underlying  
cause:
“the  disease  or  injury  that  initiated  
the  train  of  events  leading  directly  
to  death”
Births  and  Deaths  Registration  Act,  1992 Statistics  Act,  1999
Doctor  verifies  death  &  
completes  death  DHA  
1663  form
Submitted  to  DHA  &  
entered  on  population  
register
3
Sent  to  Stats  SA  to  code  
causes  of  death  to  ICD-­10,  
process  and  analyze
ICD-­10Death  occurs
1 2
Statistics  
released

Why  register  deaths?
§ The  data  allows  us  to  better  understand  mortality  and  causes  of  
death  in  South  Africa  and  the  rest  of  the  provinces
§ Quality  of  information  on  mortality  and  causes  of  death  collected  can  
be  improved  through:
§ Accurate  and  full  completion  of  all  fields  on  the  death  
notification  form
§ Correct  and  detailed  information  on  causes  of  death
Strengths  of  death  registration  data  
§ South Africa  as  a  leader  in  sub-­Saharan  Africa  :  Only  country  in  Africa  using:
§ An  automated  system  (IRIS)  for  coding  causes  of  death  
§ WHO  data  editing  tools  (ANACOD  &  CoDEdit)
§ Training  of  doctor  on  death  certification  
§ To  improve  the  quality  of  causes  of  death  certification
§ Improving  Civil  Registration  and  Vital  Statistics  Systems  (CRVS)
§ Efforts  at  global,  continental  and  country  levels  to  improve  CRVS)
§ Improved  coverage  of  death  registration
§ 96%  completeness  of  death  registration
§ Deaths  registered  soon  after  they  occurred  (3-­Days  regulation)
§ Statistics  compiled  in  accordance  with  WHO  standards
§ General  improvements  noted  in  the  quality  of  data
Limitations  of  death  registration  data  
§ 24%  of  deaths  outside  health  facilities:  occurred  at  home  (22,2%)  and  dead  on  
arrival  (1,8%);;  and  “other”  (26%)
§ May  compromise  proper  diagnosis  of  the  causes  of  death
§ Statistics  are  coded  from  what  is  recorded
§ Not  all  information  is  accurate  or  fully  completed
§ Misreporting  and  insufficient  reporting  of  causes  of  death  
§ High  proportion  of  non-­natural  deaths  unspecified  to  give  a  conclusive  profile
§ Delayed  transfer  of  data  from  DHA
§ Affects  number  of  deaths  processed
Implications  for  National  Development  Plan  
(NDP)  Priorities  
§ By  2030,  South  Africa  should  have:
§ Raised  life  expectancy  to  at  least  70  years
§ Reduced  maternal,  infant  and  child  mortality
§ Significantly  reduced  prevalence  of  non-­communicable  diseases
§ Reduced  injuries,  accidents  and  violence  by  50%  from  2010  levels
§ Progressively  reduced  deaths  from  tuberculosis
§ Tracking  of  NDP  objectives  has  implications  for  setting  of  Sustainable  
Development  Goals  (SDGs)  baselines  and  targets  to  “ensure  healthy  lives  and  
promote  well-­being  for  all  at  all  ages”  AND  to  meet  the  aspirations  of  Agenda  2063  
that  “African  people  have  a  high  standard  of  living,  and  quality  of  life,  sound  health  and  
well-­being”.
Life  Expectancy  at  birth,  2007−2015
53,3
56,5
60,9 61,9
57,3
61,2
66,6 67,7
55,3
58,9
63,8 64,8
2007 2010 2014 2015
LIFE  EXPECTANCY
DEATH  YEAR
Males Females Total  deaths
Data  source:  civil  registration  deaths  and  mid-­year  population  estimates
Life  Expectancy  at  birth,  2015    
Data  source:  civil  registration  deaths  and  mid-­year  population  estimates
NDP  Targeted  Life  
Expectancy  in  
2030  
70  years
Females  : 67,7 years
Males          :  61,9  years
64,8  years
Total  2015  Life  
Expectancy  from  
registered deaths
Maternal  mortality  ratios,  2010−2015
247
214
160
132
119
119
38
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MDG	
  2015	
  
Target
MARTENAL	
  DEATHS	
  PER	
  100	
  000	
  LIVE	
  BIRTHS
death	
  year
29
24
22 22
22
19
18
40
32 31
29 29
26
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MDG	
  Target	
  
2015
Deaths	
  per	
  1000	
  live	
  births
Death	
  Year
Infant	
  mortality Under-­‐5	
  child	
  mortality	
  
Infant  and  child  mortality  rates,  2010−2015
National  Development plan  target  or  
actions  by  2030
Deaths  2015  show:
q Increase  life  expectancy  to  at  least  70  
years
q Progressively  reduced  deaths  from  
tuberculosis,  HIV  disease  and  other  
communicable  diseases
q Reduced  injuries,  accidents  and  violence  
by  50%  from  2010  levels
q 460  236 deaths  in  2015  – peak  age  group  
60−64  years
q Communicable  diseases:    
§ TB  number  one  leading  cause  of  
death  but  decreasing  proportions  
especially  for  females
§ TB  &  HIV  part  of  top  ten  causes  only  
for  black  Africans  and  coloureds.  
§ HIV  mostly  amongst  ages  25−54  
years.
q [51  227]  non-­natural  deaths  in  2015  –
increase  of  3,9%  from  2010  levels  [49  318].
§ Account  for  61,3%  of  deaths  to  males  
20−24  years
National Development plan  target  or  
actions  by  2030
Deaths  2015  show:
q Significantly  reduced  prevalence  of  non-­
communicable  diseases
q Reduce  maternal,  infant  and  child  
mortality
q Non-­communicable  diseases  (NCDs)  –
Account  for  55,5%  deaths  in  2015  – 8,9%  
points  increase  from  2010  levels  [46,6%].
§ In  2015,  top  three  causes  for  
whites  and  Indian/Asians  were  
NCDs
q In  2015,  the  24  216  (5,3%)  infant  deaths  and  
31  938  (6,9%)  child  deaths.
Mortality  rates:
§ 19  Infant  deaths  per  1000  live  births
§ 26 Under-­5  deaths  per  1000  live  
births
§ 119 Maternal  deaths  per  100  000  
live  births
Key  findings
Number  of  deaths  in  South  Africa,  1997−2015
317  860
366  585
382  624
417  191
456  238
503  335
558  388
578  355
599  593
614  158
606  112
598  165
583  419
551  320
515  427
493  493
475  510
474  659
460  236
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NUMBER  OF  DEATHS  
Year of  death
The  number  of  
registered  deaths  
has  been  declining  
since  2007
460  236
deaths occurred  in    
South  Africa  in  2015
Age
Demographic  profile
Sex Geography
0
2
4
6
8
10 0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Percentage  
Age  group  
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The  age  profile  of  deaths  is  
starting  to  normalise  as  the  
proportion  of  deaths  has  shifted  
from  young  adult  to  older  age  
groups
Percentage  of  deaths  by  age  and  year,  2011−2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Percentage
Male Female
Age  group
Percentage  distribution  of  deaths  by  age  and  sex,  2015
Males  tend  to  die  
at  younger  ages  
than  females
Provincial  distribution  of  registered  deaths,  2015
21,3%
17,7%
14,9%
10,8%
10,2%
7,5% 7,4% 6,9%
3,0%
Gauteng KwaZulu  
Natal
Eastern  
Cape
Western  
Cape
Limpopo North  West Mpumalanga Free  State Northern  
Cape
The  biggest  
proportion  of  deaths  
were  recorded  in  
Gauteng  followed  by  
KwaZulu-­Natal.  
Number  of  deaths  per  1  000  population,  2015
LP
8,2
MP
8,0
GP
7,4
KZN
7,4
EC
9,9
FS
11,3
NW
9,3
NC
11,6
WC
8,1
South  Africa
8,4  deaths  
per  1  000  
population  
Northern  Cape  
(11,6)  and  Free  
State  (11,3)  had  
the  highest  number  
of  deaths  per  1  000  
population
How  we  die
• Communicable  diseases  
• are  diseases  caused  by  pathogenic  microorganisms  and  can  be  spread,  
directly  or  indirectly,  from  one  person  to  another.  
• Non-­communicable  diseases  
• are  medical  conditions  or  diseases  that  are  non-­infectious  or  non-­
transmissible  among  people.  These  last  for  longer  periods  of  time  and  
progress  slowly  and  include,  amongst  others
• (WHO,  2013).
• Injuries
• Non-­natural  deaths  e.g accidents;;  assault;;  suicide
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percentage  of  total  deaths
Year  of  death
Percentage  of  deaths:  Communicable,  
Non-­communicable  and  Injuries,  1997−2015
2015
Gap  was
22%  points
1997  
Gap  was
24%  points
CommunicableNon-­communicable Injuries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Percentage  of  deaths
Age  group  
Male
Percentage  of  deaths:  
Communicable  by  age  and  sex
From  Ages  5−44  years
females  had  higher
percentages  of  deaths  
due  to  communicable  
diseases
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Percentage  of  deaths
Age  group  
Male
Generally,  there  were  more  female  
deaths  than  male  deaths  due  to  non-­
communicable  diseases
Percentage  of  deaths:  Non-­
communicable  by  age  and  sex
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Percentage  of  deaths
Age  group  
Male Female
Percentage  of  deaths:  Injuries  by  age  and  sex
Injury  deaths  for  
females  peak  at  29%  
and  much  younger  
age  group  (5−9)
Above  60%  deaths  
due  to  injuries  for  
males  20−24  years
39,2%
41,0%
36,1%
37,9%
35,4%
33,7%
32,6%
29,9%
21,2%
33,4%
49,5%
50,1%
52,4%
53,2%
54,5%
54,8%
56,6%
58,4%
65,6%
55,5%
11,2%
8,9%
11,5%
8,9%
10,1%
11,6%
10,8%
11,7%
13,2%
11,1%
Mpumalanga
Limpopo
KwaZulu-­Natal
North  West
Free  State
Eastern  Cape
Northern  Cape
Gauteng
Western  Cape
South  Africa
CD NCD Injuries
Percentage  of  communicable,  non-­communicable  and  
injuries  by  Province,  2015
Total  Deaths
460  236
Main  groups  of  causes  
of  death,  2015
17,8%
9,1%
11,1%
Other
TB
HIV  disease
Infectious  
diseases  
19,5%
9,6%
6,9%
Metabolic  
diseases
26,0%
2014
1 Tuberculosis 8,3%
2 Cerebrovascular  diseases 5,1%
3 Diabetes  mellitus   5,0%
4 Other  forms  of  heart  disease   4,8%
5 Influenza  and  pneumonia   4,8%
6 HIV  disease 4,8%
7 Hypertensive  diseases   3,9%
8 Intestinal  infectious  diseases   3,1%
9 Other  viral  diseases   3,1%
10
Chronic  lower  respiratory  
diseases
2,7%
Top  ten  leading  causes  of  death,  2015
2015
1 Tuberculosis 7,2%
2 Diabetes  mellitus 5,4%
3 Cerebrovascular  diseases 5,0%
4 Other  forms  of  heart  disease 4,8%
5 HIV  disease 4,8%
6 Influenza  and  pneumonia 4,5%
7 Hypertensive  diseases 4,2%
8 Other  viral  diseases 3,5%
9
Chronic  lower  respiratory  
diseases
2,8%
10 Ischaemic  heart  diseases 2,7%
Males
1 Tuberculosis   20  111   8,3%
2 HIV  disease   11  275 4,7%
3
Influenza  and  
pneumonia
10  507 4,4%
4
Other  forms  of  heart  
disease
10  265 4,3
5
Cerebrovascular  
diseases  
9  696 4,0%
6 Diabetes  mellitus   9  657 4,0%
7 Other  viral  diseases 7  698 3,2%
8
Chronic  lower  
respiratory  diseases  
7  691 3,2%
9 Hypertensive  diseases   7  342 3,0%
10
Ischaemic  heart  
diseases  
6  944 2,9%
Top  ten  leading  causes  of  death  by  sex        
Females
1 Diabetes  mellitus   15  396 7,1%
2
Cerebrovascular  
diseases  
13  146 6,1%
3 Tuberculosis 12  811 5,9%
4 Hypertensive  diseases 12  078 5,6%
5
Other  forms  of  heart  
disease  
11  894 5,5%
6 HIV  disease 10  545 4,9%
7
Influenza  and  
pneumonia  
9  970 4,6%
8 Other  viral  diseases 8  356 3,8%
9
Intestinal  infectious  
diseases  
5  292 2,4%
10
Ischaemic  heart  
diseases  
5  280 2,4%
Males:
• The  top  10  causes  consist  of  
21,4%  Non-­Communicable  
Diseases  (NCD’s)  and  20,6%  
Communicable  Diseases  (CD’s).
• In  the  top  5  causes  there  are  2  
NCD’s  and  3  CD’s
Top  ten  leading  causes  of  death  by  sex        
Females:
• The  top  10  causes  consist  of  
26,7%    Non-­Communicable  
Diseases  (NCDs)  and  21,4%  
Communicable  diseases  (CDs)
• In  the  top  5  causes  there  are  4  
NCD’s  and  1  CD
*Excluding	
  unspecified	
  sex	
  and	
  age	
  
500
1  000
1  500
2  000
2  500
3  000
0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Number  of  deaths
Age  group
Sex  and  age  distribution  of  
Tuberculosis  deaths,  2015
0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Number  of  deaths
Age  group
Sex  and  age  distribution  of  Diabetes  
Mellitus  deaths,  2015
N  =  20  050
N  =  12  794
N  =  9  654
N  =  15  390
TB  concentrated  in  males  of  
working  ages
More  women  are  dying  of  
diabetes  from  age  45  years
Hot  and  cold  spots  for  Tuberculosis  deaths,  2015
500
1  000
1  500
2  000
2  500
0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Number  of  deaths
Age  group
Sex  and  age  distribution  of  Diabetes  Mellitus  deaths,  
2015
*Excluding	
  unspecified	
  sex	
  and	
  age	
  
More  women  are  
dying  of  diabetes  
from  age  45  years
N  =  9  654
N  =  15  390
Hot  and  cold  spots  for  Diabetes  Mellitus  deaths,  2015
Age	
  adjusted	
  diabetes	
  mellitus,	
  Males Age	
  adjusted	
  diabetes	
  mellitus,	
  Females
The  top  10  causes  
Population  group:
• For  black  Africans:  consist  of  5  Communicable  Diseases  (CDs)  
and  5  Non-­Communicable  Diseases  (NCDs)
• For  Coloureds:    2  CDs  (Tuberculosis  &  HIV  disease)  and  8  NCDs.
• For  White  and  Indians/Asians:  1  CD  (influenza  and  pneumonia)  
and  9  NCDs,  each.
Three  leading  causes  of  death  by  Population  group,  2014
Black  African
n  :  324  265
Tuberculosis
HIV  Disease
Diabetes
8,7%
5,8%
5,4%  
1
2
3
White
n  :  40  155
Ischaemic  heart  diseases  
Other  forms  of  heart  disease  
Chronic  lower  respiratory  diseases
1
2
3
11,2%
7,1%
5,7%
Indian/Asian
n  :  7  270
Ischaemic  heart  diseases  
Other  forms  of  heart  disease  
1
2
3
Diabetes  mellitus   15,3%
13,1%
6,7%
Coloured
n  :  32  688  
Tuberculosis
Diabetes  mellitus   7,7%
7,0%
1
2
3 6,7%Chronic  lower  respiratory  diseases
Young  people  15−24  years  causes  of  death  by  
population  group,  2015
Black  
Africans
89,7%
White
2,1%
Coloured
7,5%
Indian/
Asian
0,8%
[N=  18  533]
Black  Africans White
Coloured Indian/Asian
*Excluding  unspecified  population  
group  
Coloured  
[n=  1  381]
Indian/Asian  
[n=  146]
Natural  causes 38,0%   Natural  causes 47,3%
Tuberculosis   9,5% Tuberculosis   2,7%
HIV  disease 5,3%
Other  forms  of  heart    
disease   2,7%
Non-­natural  causes 62,0% Non-­natural  causes 52,7%
Assault 14,3% Assault 6,8%
Transport  accidents 6,3% Transport  accidents 4,8%
Black  Africans
[n=  16  616]
White
[n=  390]
Natural  causes 43,6% Natural  causes 35,1%
Tuberculosis   8,7% Tuberculosis   3,3%
HIV  disease 6,0% HIV  disease 2,8%
Non-­natural  causes 56,4% Non-­natural  causes 64,9%
Assault 10,7% Transport  accidents 11,8%
Transport  accidents 4,8% Assault 2,6%
Three  leading  underlying  causes  of  death  for  infants
11,2%
12,1%
35,1%
DISORD ERS  
REL AT ED  T O  
LENGT H  O F   
GESTATI ON  AND   
FETAL   GRO WTH   
OTHE R  
DISO RDE RS   
ORIG INAT I NG   IN   
THE  PE RIN AT AL   
PER IOD   
RESPI RAT O RY  
AND   
CARDIOVASCU LA
R  DISOR DERS  
SPECI F IC   T O   
THE   PERI NAT AL   
PER I OD
NEONATAL  
(0−28  DAYS)
[N:  10  663]
6,1%
14,9%
15,7%
MALNUTRITIO
N	
  
INFLUENZA	
  
AND	
  
PNEUMONIA
INTESTINAL	
  
INFECTIOUS	
  
DISEASES
POST-­‐NEONATAL	
  
(29	
  DAYS	
  -­‐ <1	
  
YEAR)
[N:	
  13	
  553]
8,4%
9,5%
15,6%
INFLUENZA	
  AND	
  
PNEUMONIA
INTESTINAL	
  
INFECTIOUS	
  
DISEASES
RESPIRATORY	
  
AND	
  
CARDIOVASCUL
AR	
  DISORDERS	
  
SPECIFIC	
  TO	
  
THE	
  PERINATAL	
  
PERIOD
INFANTS	
  (<1	
  
YEAR)
[N:	
  24	
  216]
Three  leading  underlying  causes  of  death  for  children
8,4%
10,1%
11,9%
INFLUENZA	
  AND	
  
PNEUMONIA
INTESTINAL	
  INFECTIOUS	
  
DISEASES
RESPIRATORY	
  AND	
  
CARDIOVASCULAR	
  
DISORDERS	
  SPECIFIC	
  TO	
  
THE	
  PERINATAL	
  PERIOD
UNDER	
  5-­‐YEARS
[N=	
  31	
  938]
8,4%
8,6%
12,3%
MALNUTRITION	
  
INFLUENZA	
  AND	
  
PNEUMONIA
INTESTINAL	
  INFECTIOUS	
  
DISEASES
AGE	
  1−4
[N=	
  7	
  722]
Three	
  leading	
  causes	
  of	
  death	
  by	
  age	
  groups,	
  2015	
  
5,0%
6,8%
8,9%
MALNUTRITION	
  
INFLUENZA	
  AND	
  
PNEUMONIA	
  
INTESTINAL	
  INFECTIOUS	
  
DISEASES	
  
AGE	
  1−14	
  [N=	
  13	
  938]
7,4%
10,5%
12,4%
OTHER	
  VIRAL	
  DISEASES	
  
HIV	
  DISEASE	
  
TUBERCULOSIS
AGE	
  15−44	
  [N=	
  131	
  593]
5,1%
7,0%
8,9%
CEREBROVASCULAR	
  
DISEASES
DIABETES	
  MELLITUS
TUBERCULOSIS
AGE	
  45−64	
  [N=	
  130	
  997]
8,2%
9,0%
9,1%
HYPERTENSIVE	
  
DISEASES
CEREBROVASCULAR	
  
DISEASES
DIABETES	
  MELLITUS
AGE	
  65+	
  [N:	
  158	
  270]
Leading  causes  of  death  
within  each  province,  2015
Influenza  and  pneumonia
Tuberculosis
Diabetes  mellitus
Other  forms  of  heart  
disease
LP
MP
KZN
EC
NW
NC
GP
FS
WC
HIV  related  deaths
These  are  deaths  attributed  to  HIV,  
Tuberculosis,  Influenza  and  pneumonia,  
Intestinal  infectious  diseases,  Certain  
disorders  involving  the  immune  mechanism,
Kaposi's  sarcoma  and  Meningitis
HIV  related  vs  non-­HIV  related  deaths,  1997  -­ 2015
Deaths	
  related	
  to	
  HIV
Deaths	
  not	
  related	
  to	
  HIV
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Number  of  deaths
Death  year
HIV	
  related	
  vs	
  non-­‐HIV	
  related	
  by	
  age	
  in	
  2015
HIV	
  related	
  
deaths	
  
5  000
10  000
15  000
20  000
25  000
30  000
35  000
40  000 0
1-­4
5-­9
10-­14
15-­19
20-­24
25-­29
30-­34
35-­39
40-­44
45-­49
50-­54
55-­59
60-­64
65-­69
70-­74
75-­79
80-­84
85-­89
90+
Number  of  deaths
Age  group
HIV	
  related	
  Deaths	
  in
25−54	
  Age	
  Group	
  
[N=	
  70	
  547]
Percentage  distribution  of  HIV  related  deaths  25−54  
age  group  in  2015  by  sex
39,6%
48,8%
54,9%
58,4%
59,7%
61,7%
54,2%
60,4%
51,2%
45,1%
41,6%
40,3%
38,3%
45,8%
25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 Total
HIV	
  related	
  Deaths	
  in
25−54	
  Age	
  Group	
  
[N=	
  70	
  547]
Non-­natural  causes  of  death  
Percentage  of  non-­natural  deaths,  1997 -­ 2015  
17,0%
8,7% 9,1%
11,1%
0
4
8
12
16
20 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percentage  of  deaths
Death  Year
Non-­natural  deaths  include  
all  external  causes  of  
morbidity  and  mortality  
The  percentage  of  
non-­natural  deaths  in  South  
Africa  has  decreased  over  
the  years,  but  has    increased  
slightly  since  2010
NDP  requires  a  50%  
reduction  in  injuries,  
accidents  and  violence  from  
2010  levels  by  2030
Number  of  deaths:  Communicable,  
Non-­communicable  and  Injuries,  1997−2015
4500
54500
104500
154500
204500
254500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CD NCD Injuries
Increases  in  communicable  and  non-­communicable  
deaths  peaked  in  2006.  
0,9%
3,4%
12,3%
14,1%
6,7%
62,5%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0
Intentional  self-­harm  
Complications  of  medical  and  surgical  
care
Transport  accidents
Assault
Event  of  undetermined  intent  
Other  external  causes  of  accidental  injury  
Percentage  of  non-­natural  deaths  by  broad  groups  2015
Over  62%  of  non-­
natural  deaths  due  
to  Other  external  
causes  of  
accidental  injury
4,4%
7,4%
15,2%
17,4%
49,6%
Accidental  drowning  and  submersion  
Exposure  to  smoke,  fire  and  flames  
Other  accidental  threats  to  breathing
Exposure  to  inanimate  mechanical  forces  
Accidental  exposure  to  other  and  
unspecified  factors
Distribution  of  deaths  due  to  other  external  causes  of  
accidental  injury  2015
Deaths  due  to  other  
external  causes  
comprise  of  high  
percentage  of  
ill-­defined  causes
Transport  accident  deaths  
percentage  of  non-­natural  
deaths  within  each  
province
LP
31,9%
MP
11,2%
KZN
12,2%
EC
13,0%
NW
17,0%
NC
28,9%
GP
FS
20,5%
WC
6,8%
GP
2,5%
South  Africa
12,3%
Limpopo  &  Northern  
Cape  had  the  highest  
percentage  of  deaths  
due  to  transport  
accidents
Transport	
  accident	
  deaths	
  percentage	
  of	
  non-­‐natural	
  
deaths	
  by	
  District	
  Municipality:	
  2015
The  Waterberg  
District  Municipality
recorded  the  highest  
percentage  of  deaths  
due  to  transport  
accidents  in  South  
Africa
Rank District  Municipality Province
Percentage  
of  non-­natural  
deaths  in  DM
1 Waterberg Limpopo 41,0%
2 John  Taolo  Gaetsewe North  West 38,4%
3 Greater  Sekhukhune Limpopo 37,3%
4 Capricorn Limpopo 35,3%
5 Fezile  Dabi Free  State 34,3%
6 Central  Karoo Western  Cape 32,5%
7 Namakwa Northern  Cape 31,0%
8 Ngaka  Modiri  Molema North  West 30,2%
9 Siyanda Northern  Cape 28,7%
10 Frances  Baard Northern  Cape 27,3%
Ranking  of  Metro  
Municipalities
32.  Mangaung
34.  Nelson  MM
38    City  of  Tshwane
40.  City  of  eThekwini
41.  Buffalo  City  
43.  City  of  Cape  Town
48.  City  of  Johannesburg
51.  Ekurhuleni  MM
Hot  and  cold  spots  for  Transport  deaths,  2015
Assault  related  deaths  
percentage  of  non-­natural  
deaths  within  each  
province
LP
7,3%
MP
5,6%
KZN
13,2%
EC
22,3%
NW
9,1%
NC
21,6%
FS
16,1%
WC
21,6%
GP
9,2%
South  Africa
14,1%
The	
  Eastern	
  Cape	
  
experienced	
  the	
  
highest	
  percentage	
  of	
  
deaths	
  due	
  to	
  assault
Assault	
  related	
  deaths	
  percentage	
  of	
  non-­‐natural	
  
deaths	
  by	
  District	
  Municipality
The  Alfred  Nzo  District  
Municipality  recorded  
the  highest  percentage  
of  deaths  due  to  assault  
in  South  Africa
Rank District  Municipality Province
Percentage  of  
non-­natural  
deaths  in  DM
1 Alfred  Nzo Eastern  Cape 27,7%
2 O.R.Tambo Eastern  Cape 27,2%
3 Siyanda Northern  Cape 25,9%
4 Central  Karoo   Western  Cape 25,6%
5 Pixley ka Seme Northern  Cape 24,8%
6 Chris  Hani Eastern  Cape 23,3%
7 Lejweleputswa Free  State 22,9%
8 Amathole Eastern  Cape 22,8%
9 Overberg Western  Cape 22,8%
10 Eden   Western  Cape 22,7%
Ranking  of  Metro  
Municipalities
12.  City  of  Cape  Town
13.  Buffalo  City  
20.  Mangaung  Municipality
25.  Nelson  MM
30.  City  of  eThekwini
38.  Ekurhuleni  MM
43.  City  of  Johannesburg
50.  City  of  Tshwane
Firearm  and  breathing  related  deaths  as  a  percentage  of  
non-­natural  deaths  within  each  province
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
Discharge  from  firearm   Accidental  threats  to  breathing  
45,0%
2,1%
Hospital
Emergency  
Room
outpatient
1,8%
Dead  on  arrival
22,2%
2,9%
Nursing  Home
Distribution  of  deaths  by  place  of  death  occurrence
*Other,	
  Unknown	
  or	
  Unspecified	
  	
  26,0%	
  
Home
Conclusions
§ The  overall  number  of  deaths  in  South  Africa  continues  to  decline  
since  2007.  
§ The  age  and  sex  profile  of  deaths  shows  proportion  of  deaths  
shifting  from  young  adults  to  older  age  groups,  particularly  among  
females.
§ The  profile  of  the  global  burden  of  disease  shows  that  on  average  
South  Africans  are  dying  of  non-­communicable  diseases.
§ Leading  causes  show  that:
§ Tuberculosis  1st leading  cause  in  2014  and  2015  
§ Diabetes  moved  up  from  3rd position  in  2014  to  2nd in  2015
§ Diabetes  was 1st among  females  and  5th amongst  males    
§ HIV  disease  was  2nd among  males  and  6th amongst  females
§ Mortality  and  causes  of  death  2016  release  scheduled  
for  November  2017
§ SADHS  
§ data  collection  completed.  
§ Currently  busy  with  data  analysis
§ The  Key  Indicator  Report  (KIR)  will  be  released  within  
three  months.  
Next  Steps
The Mortality report, 2015
is also available to
download from the Stats
SA app

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Mortality and causes of death 2015

  • 1. Dr  Pali  Lehohla Statistician-­General What  do  South  Africans  die  of? Findings  from  registered  deaths,  2015 #StatsSA
  • 2. Death: A permanent   disappearance  of   all  evidence  of  life   after  a  live  birth   has  occurred From  death  to  statistics Reporting  of  causes  of  death   is  based  on  the  underlying   cause: “the  disease  or  injury  that  initiated   the  train  of  events  leading  directly   to  death” Births  and  Deaths  Registration  Act,  1992 Statistics  Act,  1999 Doctor  verifies  death  &   completes  death  DHA   1663  form Submitted  to  DHA  &   entered  on  population   register 3 Sent  to  Stats  SA  to  code   causes  of  death  to  ICD-­10,   process  and  analyze ICD-­10Death  occurs 1 2 Statistics   released 
  • 3. Why  register  deaths? § The  data  allows  us  to  better  understand  mortality  and  causes  of   death  in  South  Africa  and  the  rest  of  the  provinces § Quality  of  information  on  mortality  and  causes  of  death  collected  can   be  improved  through: § Accurate  and  full  completion  of  all  fields  on  the  death   notification  form § Correct  and  detailed  information  on  causes  of  death
  • 4. Strengths  of  death  registration  data   § South Africa  as  a  leader  in  sub-­Saharan  Africa  :  Only  country  in  Africa  using: § An  automated  system  (IRIS)  for  coding  causes  of  death   § WHO  data  editing  tools  (ANACOD  &  CoDEdit) § Training  of  doctor  on  death  certification   § To  improve  the  quality  of  causes  of  death  certification § Improving  Civil  Registration  and  Vital  Statistics  Systems  (CRVS) § Efforts  at  global,  continental  and  country  levels  to  improve  CRVS) § Improved  coverage  of  death  registration § 96%  completeness  of  death  registration § Deaths  registered  soon  after  they  occurred  (3-­Days  regulation) § Statistics  compiled  in  accordance  with  WHO  standards § General  improvements  noted  in  the  quality  of  data
  • 5. Limitations  of  death  registration  data   § 24%  of  deaths  outside  health  facilities:  occurred  at  home  (22,2%)  and  dead  on   arrival  (1,8%);;  and  “other”  (26%) § May  compromise  proper  diagnosis  of  the  causes  of  death § Statistics  are  coded  from  what  is  recorded § Not  all  information  is  accurate  or  fully  completed § Misreporting  and  insufficient  reporting  of  causes  of  death   § High  proportion  of  non-­natural  deaths  unspecified  to  give  a  conclusive  profile § Delayed  transfer  of  data  from  DHA § Affects  number  of  deaths  processed
  • 6. Implications  for  National  Development  Plan   (NDP)  Priorities   § By  2030,  South  Africa  should  have: § Raised  life  expectancy  to  at  least  70  years § Reduced  maternal,  infant  and  child  mortality § Significantly  reduced  prevalence  of  non-­communicable  diseases § Reduced  injuries,  accidents  and  violence  by  50%  from  2010  levels § Progressively  reduced  deaths  from  tuberculosis § Tracking  of  NDP  objectives  has  implications  for  setting  of  Sustainable   Development  Goals  (SDGs)  baselines  and  targets  to  “ensure  healthy  lives  and   promote  well-­being  for  all  at  all  ages”  AND  to  meet  the  aspirations  of  Agenda  2063   that  “African  people  have  a  high  standard  of  living,  and  quality  of  life,  sound  health  and   well-­being”.
  • 7. Life  Expectancy  at  birth,  2007−2015 53,3 56,5 60,9 61,9 57,3 61,2 66,6 67,7 55,3 58,9 63,8 64,8 2007 2010 2014 2015 LIFE  EXPECTANCY DEATH  YEAR Males Females Total  deaths Data  source:  civil  registration  deaths  and  mid-­year  population  estimates
  • 8. Life  Expectancy  at  birth,  2015     Data  source:  civil  registration  deaths  and  mid-­year  population  estimates NDP  Targeted  Life   Expectancy  in   2030   70  years Females  : 67,7 years Males          :  61,9  years 64,8  years Total  2015  Life   Expectancy  from   registered deaths
  • 9. Maternal  mortality  ratios,  2010−2015 247 214 160 132 119 119 38 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MDG  2015   Target MARTENAL  DEATHS  PER  100  000  LIVE  BIRTHS death  year
  • 10. 29 24 22 22 22 19 18 40 32 31 29 29 26 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MDG  Target   2015 Deaths  per  1000  live  births Death  Year Infant  mortality Under-­‐5  child  mortality   Infant  and  child  mortality  rates,  2010−2015
  • 11. National  Development plan  target  or   actions  by  2030 Deaths  2015  show: q Increase  life  expectancy  to  at  least  70   years q Progressively  reduced  deaths  from   tuberculosis,  HIV  disease  and  other   communicable  diseases q Reduced  injuries,  accidents  and  violence   by  50%  from  2010  levels q 460  236 deaths  in  2015  – peak  age  group   60−64  years q Communicable  diseases:     § TB  number  one  leading  cause  of   death  but  decreasing  proportions   especially  for  females § TB  &  HIV  part  of  top  ten  causes  only   for  black  Africans  and  coloureds.   § HIV  mostly  amongst  ages  25−54   years. q [51  227]  non-­natural  deaths  in  2015  – increase  of  3,9%  from  2010  levels  [49  318]. § Account  for  61,3%  of  deaths  to  males   20−24  years
  • 12. National Development plan  target  or   actions  by  2030 Deaths  2015  show: q Significantly  reduced  prevalence  of  non-­ communicable  diseases q Reduce  maternal,  infant  and  child   mortality q Non-­communicable  diseases  (NCDs)  – Account  for  55,5%  deaths  in  2015  – 8,9%   points  increase  from  2010  levels  [46,6%]. § In  2015,  top  three  causes  for   whites  and  Indian/Asians  were   NCDs q In  2015,  the  24  216  (5,3%)  infant  deaths  and   31  938  (6,9%)  child  deaths. Mortality  rates: § 19  Infant  deaths  per  1000  live  births § 26 Under-­5  deaths  per  1000  live   births § 119 Maternal  deaths  per  100  000   live  births
  • 14. Number  of  deaths  in  South  Africa,  1997−2015 317  860 366  585 382  624 417  191 456  238 503  335 558  388 578  355 599  593 614  158 606  112 598  165 583  419 551  320 515  427 493  493 475  510 474  659 460  236 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NUMBER  OF  DEATHS   Year of  death The  number  of   registered  deaths   has  been  declining   since  2007 460  236 deaths occurred  in     South  Africa  in  2015
  • 16. 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Percentage   Age  group   2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 The  age  profile  of  deaths  is   starting  to  normalise  as  the   proportion  of  deaths  has  shifted   from  young  adult  to  older  age   groups Percentage  of  deaths  by  age  and  year,  2011−2015
  • 17. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Percentage Male Female Age  group Percentage  distribution  of  deaths  by  age  and  sex,  2015 Males  tend  to  die   at  younger  ages   than  females
  • 18. Provincial  distribution  of  registered  deaths,  2015 21,3% 17,7% 14,9% 10,8% 10,2% 7,5% 7,4% 6,9% 3,0% Gauteng KwaZulu   Natal Eastern   Cape Western   Cape Limpopo North  West Mpumalanga Free  State Northern   Cape The  biggest   proportion  of  deaths   were  recorded  in   Gauteng  followed  by   KwaZulu-­Natal.  
  • 19. Number  of  deaths  per  1  000  population,  2015 LP 8,2 MP 8,0 GP 7,4 KZN 7,4 EC 9,9 FS 11,3 NW 9,3 NC 11,6 WC 8,1 South  Africa 8,4  deaths   per  1  000   population   Northern  Cape   (11,6)  and  Free   State  (11,3)  had   the  highest  number   of  deaths  per  1  000   population
  • 20. How  we  die • Communicable  diseases   • are  diseases  caused  by  pathogenic  microorganisms  and  can  be  spread,   directly  or  indirectly,  from  one  person  to  another.   • Non-­communicable  diseases   • are  medical  conditions  or  diseases  that  are  non-­infectious  or  non-­ transmissible  among  people.  These  last  for  longer  periods  of  time  and   progress  slowly  and  include,  amongst  others • (WHO,  2013). • Injuries • Non-­natural  deaths  e.g accidents;;  assault;;  suicide
  • 21. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percentage  of  total  deaths Year  of  death Percentage  of  deaths:  Communicable,   Non-­communicable  and  Injuries,  1997−2015 2015 Gap  was 22%  points 1997   Gap  was 24%  points CommunicableNon-­communicable Injuries
  • 22. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Percentage  of  deaths Age  group   Male Percentage  of  deaths:   Communicable  by  age  and  sex From  Ages  5−44  years females  had  higher percentages  of  deaths   due  to  communicable   diseases 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Percentage  of  deaths Age  group   Male Generally,  there  were  more  female   deaths  than  male  deaths  due  to  non-­ communicable  diseases Percentage  of  deaths:  Non-­ communicable  by  age  and  sex
  • 23. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Percentage  of  deaths Age  group   Male Female Percentage  of  deaths:  Injuries  by  age  and  sex Injury  deaths  for   females  peak  at  29%   and  much  younger   age  group  (5−9) Above  60%  deaths   due  to  injuries  for   males  20−24  years
  • 24. 39,2% 41,0% 36,1% 37,9% 35,4% 33,7% 32,6% 29,9% 21,2% 33,4% 49,5% 50,1% 52,4% 53,2% 54,5% 54,8% 56,6% 58,4% 65,6% 55,5% 11,2% 8,9% 11,5% 8,9% 10,1% 11,6% 10,8% 11,7% 13,2% 11,1% Mpumalanga Limpopo KwaZulu-­Natal North  West Free  State Eastern  Cape Northern  Cape Gauteng Western  Cape South  Africa CD NCD Injuries Percentage  of  communicable,  non-­communicable  and   injuries  by  Province,  2015
  • 25. Total  Deaths 460  236 Main  groups  of  causes   of  death,  2015 17,8% 9,1% 11,1% Other TB HIV  disease Infectious   diseases   19,5% 9,6% 6,9% Metabolic   diseases 26,0%
  • 26. 2014 1 Tuberculosis 8,3% 2 Cerebrovascular  diseases 5,1% 3 Diabetes  mellitus   5,0% 4 Other  forms  of  heart  disease   4,8% 5 Influenza  and  pneumonia   4,8% 6 HIV  disease 4,8% 7 Hypertensive  diseases   3,9% 8 Intestinal  infectious  diseases   3,1% 9 Other  viral  diseases   3,1% 10 Chronic  lower  respiratory   diseases 2,7% Top  ten  leading  causes  of  death,  2015 2015 1 Tuberculosis 7,2% 2 Diabetes  mellitus 5,4% 3 Cerebrovascular  diseases 5,0% 4 Other  forms  of  heart  disease 4,8% 5 HIV  disease 4,8% 6 Influenza  and  pneumonia 4,5% 7 Hypertensive  diseases 4,2% 8 Other  viral  diseases 3,5% 9 Chronic  lower  respiratory   diseases 2,8% 10 Ischaemic  heart  diseases 2,7%
  • 27. Males 1 Tuberculosis   20  111   8,3% 2 HIV  disease   11  275 4,7% 3 Influenza  and   pneumonia 10  507 4,4% 4 Other  forms  of  heart   disease 10  265 4,3 5 Cerebrovascular   diseases   9  696 4,0% 6 Diabetes  mellitus   9  657 4,0% 7 Other  viral  diseases 7  698 3,2% 8 Chronic  lower   respiratory  diseases   7  691 3,2% 9 Hypertensive  diseases   7  342 3,0% 10 Ischaemic  heart   diseases   6  944 2,9% Top  ten  leading  causes  of  death  by  sex         Females 1 Diabetes  mellitus   15  396 7,1% 2 Cerebrovascular   diseases   13  146 6,1% 3 Tuberculosis 12  811 5,9% 4 Hypertensive  diseases 12  078 5,6% 5 Other  forms  of  heart   disease   11  894 5,5% 6 HIV  disease 10  545 4,9% 7 Influenza  and   pneumonia   9  970 4,6% 8 Other  viral  diseases 8  356 3,8% 9 Intestinal  infectious   diseases   5  292 2,4% 10 Ischaemic  heart   diseases   5  280 2,4%
  • 28. Males: • The  top  10  causes  consist  of   21,4%  Non-­Communicable   Diseases  (NCD’s)  and  20,6%   Communicable  Diseases  (CD’s). • In  the  top  5  causes  there  are  2   NCD’s  and  3  CD’s Top  ten  leading  causes  of  death  by  sex         Females: • The  top  10  causes  consist  of   26,7%    Non-­Communicable   Diseases  (NCDs)  and  21,4%   Communicable  diseases  (CDs) • In  the  top  5  causes  there  are  4   NCD’s  and  1  CD
  • 29. *Excluding  unspecified  sex  and  age   500 1  000 1  500 2  000 2  500 3  000 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Number  of  deaths Age  group Sex  and  age  distribution  of   Tuberculosis  deaths,  2015 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Number  of  deaths Age  group Sex  and  age  distribution  of  Diabetes   Mellitus  deaths,  2015 N  =  20  050 N  =  12  794 N  =  9  654 N  =  15  390 TB  concentrated  in  males  of   working  ages More  women  are  dying  of   diabetes  from  age  45  years
  • 30. Hot  and  cold  spots  for  Tuberculosis  deaths,  2015
  • 31. 500 1  000 1  500 2  000 2  500 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Number  of  deaths Age  group Sex  and  age  distribution  of  Diabetes  Mellitus  deaths,   2015 *Excluding  unspecified  sex  and  age   More  women  are   dying  of  diabetes   from  age  45  years N  =  9  654 N  =  15  390
  • 32. Hot  and  cold  spots  for  Diabetes  Mellitus  deaths,  2015 Age  adjusted  diabetes  mellitus,  Males Age  adjusted  diabetes  mellitus,  Females
  • 33. The  top  10  causes   Population  group: • For  black  Africans:  consist  of  5  Communicable  Diseases  (CDs)   and  5  Non-­Communicable  Diseases  (NCDs) • For  Coloureds:    2  CDs  (Tuberculosis  &  HIV  disease)  and  8  NCDs. • For  White  and  Indians/Asians:  1  CD  (influenza  and  pneumonia)   and  9  NCDs,  each.
  • 34. Three  leading  causes  of  death  by  Population  group,  2014 Black  African n  :  324  265 Tuberculosis HIV  Disease Diabetes 8,7% 5,8% 5,4%   1 2 3 White n  :  40  155 Ischaemic  heart  diseases   Other  forms  of  heart  disease   Chronic  lower  respiratory  diseases 1 2 3 11,2% 7,1% 5,7% Indian/Asian n  :  7  270 Ischaemic  heart  diseases   Other  forms  of  heart  disease   1 2 3 Diabetes  mellitus   15,3% 13,1% 6,7% Coloured n  :  32  688   Tuberculosis Diabetes  mellitus   7,7% 7,0% 1 2 3 6,7%Chronic  lower  respiratory  diseases
  • 35. Young  people  15−24  years  causes  of  death  by   population  group,  2015 Black   Africans 89,7% White 2,1% Coloured 7,5% Indian/ Asian 0,8% [N=  18  533] Black  Africans White Coloured Indian/Asian *Excluding  unspecified  population   group   Coloured   [n=  1  381] Indian/Asian   [n=  146] Natural  causes 38,0%   Natural  causes 47,3% Tuberculosis   9,5% Tuberculosis   2,7% HIV  disease 5,3% Other  forms  of  heart     disease   2,7% Non-­natural  causes 62,0% Non-­natural  causes 52,7% Assault 14,3% Assault 6,8% Transport  accidents 6,3% Transport  accidents 4,8% Black  Africans [n=  16  616] White [n=  390] Natural  causes 43,6% Natural  causes 35,1% Tuberculosis   8,7% Tuberculosis   3,3% HIV  disease 6,0% HIV  disease 2,8% Non-­natural  causes 56,4% Non-­natural  causes 64,9% Assault 10,7% Transport  accidents 11,8% Transport  accidents 4,8% Assault 2,6%
  • 36. Three  leading  underlying  causes  of  death  for  infants 11,2% 12,1% 35,1% DISORD ERS   REL AT ED  T O   LENGT H  O F   GESTATI ON  AND   FETAL  GRO WTH   OTHE R   DISO RDE RS   ORIG INAT I NG  IN   THE  PE RIN AT AL   PER IOD   RESPI RAT O RY   AND   CARDIOVASCU LA R  DISOR DERS   SPECI F IC  T O   THE   PERI NAT AL   PER I OD NEONATAL   (0−28  DAYS) [N:  10  663] 6,1% 14,9% 15,7% MALNUTRITIO N   INFLUENZA   AND   PNEUMONIA INTESTINAL   INFECTIOUS   DISEASES POST-­‐NEONATAL   (29  DAYS  -­‐ <1   YEAR) [N:  13  553] 8,4% 9,5% 15,6% INFLUENZA  AND   PNEUMONIA INTESTINAL   INFECTIOUS   DISEASES RESPIRATORY   AND   CARDIOVASCUL AR  DISORDERS   SPECIFIC  TO   THE  PERINATAL   PERIOD INFANTS  (<1   YEAR) [N:  24  216]
  • 37. Three  leading  underlying  causes  of  death  for  children 8,4% 10,1% 11,9% INFLUENZA  AND   PNEUMONIA INTESTINAL  INFECTIOUS   DISEASES RESPIRATORY  AND   CARDIOVASCULAR   DISORDERS  SPECIFIC  TO   THE  PERINATAL  PERIOD UNDER  5-­‐YEARS [N=  31  938] 8,4% 8,6% 12,3% MALNUTRITION   INFLUENZA  AND   PNEUMONIA INTESTINAL  INFECTIOUS   DISEASES AGE  1−4 [N=  7  722]
  • 38. Three  leading  causes  of  death  by  age  groups,  2015   5,0% 6,8% 8,9% MALNUTRITION   INFLUENZA  AND   PNEUMONIA   INTESTINAL  INFECTIOUS   DISEASES   AGE  1−14  [N=  13  938] 7,4% 10,5% 12,4% OTHER  VIRAL  DISEASES   HIV  DISEASE   TUBERCULOSIS AGE  15−44  [N=  131  593] 5,1% 7,0% 8,9% CEREBROVASCULAR   DISEASES DIABETES  MELLITUS TUBERCULOSIS AGE  45−64  [N=  130  997] 8,2% 9,0% 9,1% HYPERTENSIVE   DISEASES CEREBROVASCULAR   DISEASES DIABETES  MELLITUS AGE  65+  [N:  158  270]
  • 39. Leading  causes  of  death   within  each  province,  2015 Influenza  and  pneumonia Tuberculosis Diabetes  mellitus Other  forms  of  heart   disease LP MP KZN EC NW NC GP FS WC
  • 40. HIV  related  deaths These  are  deaths  attributed  to  HIV,   Tuberculosis,  Influenza  and  pneumonia,   Intestinal  infectious  diseases,  Certain   disorders  involving  the  immune  mechanism, Kaposi's  sarcoma  and  Meningitis
  • 41. HIV  related  vs  non-­HIV  related  deaths,  1997  -­ 2015 Deaths  related  to  HIV Deaths  not  related  to  HIV 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Number  of  deaths Death  year
  • 42. HIV  related  vs  non-­‐HIV  related  by  age  in  2015 HIV  related   deaths   5  000 10  000 15  000 20  000 25  000 30  000 35  000 40  000 0 1-­4 5-­9 10-­14 15-­19 20-­24 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 55-­59 60-­64 65-­69 70-­74 75-­79 80-­84 85-­89 90+ Number  of  deaths Age  group HIV  related  Deaths  in 25−54  Age  Group   [N=  70  547]
  • 43. Percentage  distribution  of  HIV  related  deaths  25−54   age  group  in  2015  by  sex 39,6% 48,8% 54,9% 58,4% 59,7% 61,7% 54,2% 60,4% 51,2% 45,1% 41,6% 40,3% 38,3% 45,8% 25-­29 30-­34 35-­39 40-­44 45-­49 50-­54 Total HIV  related  Deaths  in 25−54  Age  Group   [N=  70  547]
  • 45. Percentage  of  non-­natural  deaths,  1997 -­ 2015   17,0% 8,7% 9,1% 11,1% 0 4 8 12 16 20 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percentage  of  deaths Death  Year Non-­natural  deaths  include   all  external  causes  of   morbidity  and  mortality   The  percentage  of   non-­natural  deaths  in  South   Africa  has  decreased  over   the  years,  but  has    increased   slightly  since  2010 NDP  requires  a  50%   reduction  in  injuries,   accidents  and  violence  from   2010  levels  by  2030
  • 46. Number  of  deaths:  Communicable,   Non-­communicable  and  Injuries,  1997−2015 4500 54500 104500 154500 204500 254500 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CD NCD Injuries Increases  in  communicable  and  non-­communicable   deaths  peaked  in  2006.  
  • 47. 0,9% 3,4% 12,3% 14,1% 6,7% 62,5% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 Intentional  self-­harm   Complications  of  medical  and  surgical   care Transport  accidents Assault Event  of  undetermined  intent   Other  external  causes  of  accidental  injury   Percentage  of  non-­natural  deaths  by  broad  groups  2015 Over  62%  of  non-­ natural  deaths  due   to  Other  external   causes  of   accidental  injury
  • 48. 4,4% 7,4% 15,2% 17,4% 49,6% Accidental  drowning  and  submersion   Exposure  to  smoke,  fire  and  flames   Other  accidental  threats  to  breathing Exposure  to  inanimate  mechanical  forces   Accidental  exposure  to  other  and   unspecified  factors Distribution  of  deaths  due  to  other  external  causes  of   accidental  injury  2015 Deaths  due  to  other   external  causes   comprise  of  high   percentage  of   ill-­defined  causes
  • 49. Transport  accident  deaths   percentage  of  non-­natural   deaths  within  each   province LP 31,9% MP 11,2% KZN 12,2% EC 13,0% NW 17,0% NC 28,9% GP FS 20,5% WC 6,8% GP 2,5% South  Africa 12,3% Limpopo  &  Northern   Cape  had  the  highest   percentage  of  deaths   due  to  transport   accidents
  • 50. Transport  accident  deaths  percentage  of  non-­‐natural   deaths  by  District  Municipality:  2015 The  Waterberg   District  Municipality recorded  the  highest   percentage  of  deaths   due  to  transport   accidents  in  South   Africa Rank District  Municipality Province Percentage   of  non-­natural   deaths  in  DM 1 Waterberg Limpopo 41,0% 2 John  Taolo  Gaetsewe North  West 38,4% 3 Greater  Sekhukhune Limpopo 37,3% 4 Capricorn Limpopo 35,3% 5 Fezile  Dabi Free  State 34,3% 6 Central  Karoo Western  Cape 32,5% 7 Namakwa Northern  Cape 31,0% 8 Ngaka  Modiri  Molema North  West 30,2% 9 Siyanda Northern  Cape 28,7% 10 Frances  Baard Northern  Cape 27,3% Ranking  of  Metro   Municipalities 32.  Mangaung 34.  Nelson  MM 38    City  of  Tshwane 40.  City  of  eThekwini 41.  Buffalo  City   43.  City  of  Cape  Town 48.  City  of  Johannesburg 51.  Ekurhuleni  MM
  • 51. Hot  and  cold  spots  for  Transport  deaths,  2015
  • 52. Assault  related  deaths   percentage  of  non-­natural   deaths  within  each   province LP 7,3% MP 5,6% KZN 13,2% EC 22,3% NW 9,1% NC 21,6% FS 16,1% WC 21,6% GP 9,2% South  Africa 14,1% The  Eastern  Cape   experienced  the   highest  percentage  of   deaths  due  to  assault
  • 53. Assault  related  deaths  percentage  of  non-­‐natural   deaths  by  District  Municipality The  Alfred  Nzo  District   Municipality  recorded   the  highest  percentage   of  deaths  due  to  assault   in  South  Africa Rank District  Municipality Province Percentage  of   non-­natural   deaths  in  DM 1 Alfred  Nzo Eastern  Cape 27,7% 2 O.R.Tambo Eastern  Cape 27,2% 3 Siyanda Northern  Cape 25,9% 4 Central  Karoo   Western  Cape 25,6% 5 Pixley ka Seme Northern  Cape 24,8% 6 Chris  Hani Eastern  Cape 23,3% 7 Lejweleputswa Free  State 22,9% 8 Amathole Eastern  Cape 22,8% 9 Overberg Western  Cape 22,8% 10 Eden   Western  Cape 22,7% Ranking  of  Metro   Municipalities 12.  City  of  Cape  Town 13.  Buffalo  City   20.  Mangaung  Municipality 25.  Nelson  MM 30.  City  of  eThekwini 38.  Ekurhuleni  MM 43.  City  of  Johannesburg 50.  City  of  Tshwane
  • 54. Firearm  and  breathing  related  deaths  as  a  percentage  of   non-­natural  deaths  within  each  province 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% Discharge  from  firearm   Accidental  threats  to  breathing  
  • 55. 45,0% 2,1% Hospital Emergency   Room outpatient 1,8% Dead  on  arrival 22,2% 2,9% Nursing  Home Distribution  of  deaths  by  place  of  death  occurrence *Other,  Unknown  or  Unspecified    26,0%   Home
  • 56. Conclusions § The  overall  number  of  deaths  in  South  Africa  continues  to  decline   since  2007.   § The  age  and  sex  profile  of  deaths  shows  proportion  of  deaths   shifting  from  young  adults  to  older  age  groups,  particularly  among   females. § The  profile  of  the  global  burden  of  disease  shows  that  on  average   South  Africans  are  dying  of  non-­communicable  diseases. § Leading  causes  show  that: § Tuberculosis  1st leading  cause  in  2014  and  2015   § Diabetes  moved  up  from  3rd position  in  2014  to  2nd in  2015 § Diabetes  was 1st among  females  and  5th amongst  males     § HIV  disease  was  2nd among  males  and  6th amongst  females
  • 57. § Mortality  and  causes  of  death  2016  release  scheduled   for  November  2017 § SADHS   § data  collection  completed.   § Currently  busy  with  data  analysis § The  Key  Indicator  Report  (KIR)  will  be  released  within   three  months.   Next  Steps
  • 58. The Mortality report, 2015 is also available to download from the Stats SA app