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QLFS Q4:2018
Quarterly Labour
Force Survey
Q4:2018 Risenga Maluleke
Statistician-General
#StatsSA
QLFS Q4:2018
27,5%
27,1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SOUTH AFRICA’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DECREASED BY 0,4 OF A
PERCENTAGE POINT TO 27,1% IN Q4 OF 2018. The unemployment rate has
fluctuated between the 20% and 30% band for the last 10 years.
Unemployment rate from
Q1:2008 to Q4:2018
QLFS Q4:2018
24,1%
27,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
21,5%
27,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Unemployment rate from
Q4:2008 to Q4:2018
26,7%
27,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS REMAINED STAGNANT YEAR ON YEAR. There has
been a 0,4 of a percentage point increase between Q4:2017 and Q4:2018.
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
Q4
2008
Q4
2018
Q4
2018
Q4
2018
Q4
2013
Q4
2017
QLFS Q4:2018
UnemployedEmployed
16,5 6,1
2,8
12,6
Other NEA
Not Economically Active
discouraged
workseekers
15,5 million
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed
and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged
job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.
Cannot be in two groups at the same time,
Labour force
22,7 million
38,1 million
People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)
M
M
M
Employed Unemployed
South Africa’s
official
unemployment rate
stands at
27,1%
M
Decreased by 0,4
ppt bet Q3:2018 and
Q4:2018
THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) IN Q4:2018 WAS 38,1 MILLION
QLFS Q4:2018
2008
-38 000 q/q
+149 000 q/q
-70 000 q/q
Other Not Economically
Active
Unemployed
Employed
LabourForce
+108 000 q/q
Discouraged work
seekers
NotEconomically
Active
THERE WAS AN INCREASE OF 149 000 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE IN SOUTH
AFRICA (15 – 64 YEAR OLDS) BETWEEN Q3:2018 AND Q4:2018
Labour market indicators between
Q1:2008 and Q4:2018
2018
Changes between Q3:2018 and
Q4:2018
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Oct-Dec2008
Apr-Jun
2009
Oct-Dec2009
Apr-Jun
2010
Oct-Dec2010
Apr-Jun
2011
Oct-Dec2011
Apr-Jun
2012
Oct-Dec2012
Apr-Jun
2013
Oct-Dec2013
Apr-Jun
2014
Oct-Dec2014
Apr-Jun
2015
Oct-Dec2015
Apr-Jun
2016
Oct-Dec2016
Apr-Jun
2017
Oct-Dec2017
Apr-Jun
2018
Oct-Dec2018
QLFS Q4:2018
EMPLOYMENT
&
LABOUR MARKET RATES
QLFS
Q4:2018
QLFS Q4:2018
THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS INCREASED BY 149 000 TO 16,5 MILLION IN
Q4:2018
Number of employed
From Q4:2008 to Q4:2018
The number of employed people
increased from 14,8 million in
Q4:2008 to 16,5 million in Q4:2018
14,8
16,5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
15,2
16,5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
16,2
16,5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
The number of employed people
increased from 16,2 million in
Q4:2017 to 16,5 million in Q4:2018
Employment increased by about 1,3
million jobs from 15,2 million in
Q4:2013 to 16,5 million in Q4:2018
Q4:2008 Q4:2018 Q4:2013 Q4:2018 Q4:2017 Q4:2018
Increase of
1,7 million
Increase of
1,3 million
Increase of
300 thousand
QLFS Q4:2018
46,2%
43,3%
58,8%
59,4%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Labour force participation rate Employed / population ratio (Absorption)
THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE INCREASED BY 0,6 OF A PERCENTAGE
POINT FROM 58,8% IN Q4:2008 TO 59,4% IN Q4:2018
Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age
population that is employed.
Labour force participation rate is the proportion of
the working-age population that is either employed
or unemployed.
12,6 % Points
difference 16,1
% Points difference
QLFS Q4:2018
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q3:2018 to Q4:2018
LABOUR MARKET RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON EDUCATION LEVEL
Labour market rates by
education level, Q4:2018
15,9%
6,7%
28,0%
32,0%
27,1%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than matric
Total
72,2%
82,8%
49,9%
33,3%
43,3%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0
85,9%
88,8%
69,3%
49,0%
59,4%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0
-0,4
+0,1
-1,4
+0,2
-1,0
+0,2
-0,1
+1,2
-0,8
+1,2
-0,1
-0,1
+0,3
-0,6
+0,4
QLFS Q4:2018
54,7%
33,0%
22,0%
15,0%
10,0%
27,5%
- 15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
25,1%
74,2%
80,7%
74,9%
45,0%
59,5%
- 15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
11,4%
49,7%
63,0%
63,6%
40,4%
43,1%
- 15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
0,2
-1,1
0,0
-1,0
+1,9
-0,1
+1,1
+0,3
+0,6
-0,8
+0,1
+0,5
+0,4
-0,1
-0,7
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q3:2018 to Q4:2018
Labour market rates by age
group, Q4:2018
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 IS DOUBLE THAT OF THE 45-54
YEAR OLDS.
QLFS Q4:2018
15 – 24 years 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years
Change: Percentage points
Q3:2018 to Q4:2018
Unemployment rate by education
level and age group, Q4:2018
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH IS HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF
EDUCATION LEVEL
48,9%
19,5%
54,0%
58,3%
54,7%
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
21,2%
10,5%
31,6%
40,1%
33,0%
9,3%
4,4%
17,1%
22,7%
17,9%
+1,9
+0,4
+3,4
-8,2
+3,7
+1,1
-0,1
-1,9
-3,1
-0,9
+0,5
-0,7
-0,4
0,0
-0,3
QLFS Q4:2018
PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR
TRAINING
(NEET)
QLFS
Q4:2018
QLFS Q4:2018
EducationWork
NEET
Those young people
(15-24 years) who are
categorised as NEET
are considered to be
disengaged from both
work and education.
Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total
youth-specific working-age population
?
WHAT IS (NEET) NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR
TRAINING?
QLFS Q4:2018
26,2%
28,8%
33,3% 33,4%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
2017:Q4 2018:Q4
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-24 years) by sex
APPROXIMATELY 3,2 MILLION (31,1%) OUT OF 10,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE
AGED 15-24 YEARS WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET).
The overall NEET rate increased by 1,4 percentage points in Q4:2018 compared to Q4:2017.
FEMALE NEET
Up by 0,1 of a
percentage point
MALE NEET
Up by 2,6
percentage points
15-24 YEARS
QLFS Q4:2018
25,9%
26,5%
28,7%
29,8%
30,6%
31,1%
32,8%
33,8%
35,4%
37,1%
LP
WC
FS
GP
MP
RSA
NW
KZN
NC
EC
(-2,8)
(+4,1)
(+2,9)
(-1,2)
(+1,4)
(+2,1)
(+1,5)
(-1,2)
(-1,6)
(+0,9)
( ) Y/Y Change
Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year
Change Q4:2017 – Q4:2018)
EC RECORDED THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING IN Q4: 2018.
QLFS Q4:2018
33,5%
34,9%
43,3% 42,9%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2017 Q4 2018 Q4
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-34 years) by sex
APPROXIMATELY 7,9 MILLION (38,9%) OUT OF 20,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE
AGED 15-34 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET).
The overall NEET rate increased by 0,5 of a percentage point y/y.
Female NEET
Down by 0,4 of a
percentage point
Male NEET
Up by 1,3
percentage point
15-34 YEARS
QLFS Q4:2018
Provincial NEET rate (Year - on -Year
Change Q4:2017 – Q4:2018)
THE EC PROVINCE HAD THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34
YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 46,6%. The rate
increased by 3,1 percentage points year-on-year.
29,9%
36,0%
37,3%
38,1%
38,8%
38,9%
40,9%
42,2%
43,2%
46,6%
WC
GP
LP
FS
MP
RSA
NW
KZN
NC
EC
( ) Y/Y Change
(+3,1)
(+1,0)
(+1,1)
(-0,7)
(+0,5)
(+1,2)
(+0,8)
(+0,9)
(-1,3)
(-0,5)
QLFS Q4:2018
EMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q4:2018
QLFS Q4:2018
Agriculture
Private
households
Formal Sector
(Non agricultural)
Informal Sector
(Non agricultural)
(11,3 million jobs) (3,0 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs)(849 thousand jobs)
decreased byincreased by increased by increased by
THE NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED GREW BY 149 000IN Q4:2018
TO 16,5 MILLION.
Q/QQ/Q Q/QQ/Q
92 000 7 000 65 00015 000
QLFS Q4:2018
Other
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment shares, Q4:2018
0,1%
0,8%
2,6%
5,1%
5,8%
8,1%
9,0%
10,7%
15,8%
20,1%
21,9%
Other
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Community and social services
Employment shares, Q1:2018
Share of
Nominal
GDP
(Q3:2018)
24%
15%
20%
14%
4%
10%
3%
8%
4%
CONSTRUCTION, TRADE AND AGRICULTURE HAVE HIGHER EMPLOYMENT
SHARES RELATIVE TO THEIR GDP CONTRIBUTION
Employment and GDP share
per industry
QLFS Q4:2018
-51
-30
-22
-21
7
14
31
48
65
109
Services
Transport
Utilities
Construction
Agriculture
Trade
Mining
Manufacturing
Private hholds
Finance
Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)
-67
-36
-24
-16
0
27
62
79
91
238
Services
Transport
Manufacturing
Utilities
Agriculture
Mining
Private hholds
Trade
Construction
Finance
Year-on-year change (‘000)
THE BIGGEST QUARTER-ON-QUARTER EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE RECORDED
IN FINANCE, PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
Employment changes by
industry
QLFS Q4:2018
109 000
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Other business
activities.
v Computer and related
activities
Finance ManufacturingPrivate households
Mainly driven by gains in:
Manufacturing of
v Textiles, clothing and
leather goods
v Furniture;
manufacturing NEC
48 00065 000
Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q
EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE FINANCE, PRIVATE
HOUSEHOLDS AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Gains
R
Trade
14 000
Q/Q
Mining
31 000
Q/Q
Mainly driven by
gains in :
v Mining and
quarrying NEC.
v Mining of gold
and uranium ore
Mainly driven by
gains in :
v Sale, maintenance
and repair of
motor vehicles
QLFS Q4:2018
- 51 000
Q/Q Q/Q
- 22 000
Q/Q
Services UtilitiesTransport
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Production, collection and
distribution of electricity
v Collection, purification and
distribution of water
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Other land transport
v Telecommunication
- 30 000
EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE SERVICES, TRANSPORT AND
UTILITIES INDUSTRIES
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Losses
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Education
v Other community, social
and personal services
v Health and social work
QLFS Q4:2018
0,4%
5,3%
6,2%
8,4%
8,7%
8,9%
10,3%
12,5%
16,3%
22,9%
Skilled agriculture
Professional
Domestic worker
Plant and machine…
Manager
Technician
Clerk
Craft and related trade
Sales and services
Elementary
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
Elementary and domestic work
occupations
Employment share by
occupation, Q4:2018
CLOSE TO A THIRD (29,1%) OF ALL PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN Q4:2018 WERE
EMPLOYED IN ELEMENTARY AND DOMESTIC WORK OCCUPATIONS
QLFS Q4:2018
2,4M
3,0M
10,2M
11,3M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Million
Informal sector employment
Formal sector employment
Informal sector employment has increased from
2,4 million in Q4:2008 to 3,0 million in Q4:2018
Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend,
increasing from 10,2 million in Q4:2008 to 11,3 million
in Q4:2018
THE FORMAL SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL
EMPLOYMENT
Q4:2008 Q4:2018
QLFS Q4:2018
UNEMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q4:2018
QLFS Q4:2018
4,0M
6,1M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
28,9%71,1%
Long Term Unemployed*
Short Term Unemployed
39,2%61,8%
Q4
2008
Q4
2018
THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE IN SOUTH AFRICA INCREASED FROM
4,0 MILLION IN Q4:2008 TO 6,1 MILLION IN Q4:2018. The proportion of those in long-term
unemployment increased from 61,8% in Q4:2008 to 71,1% in Q4:2018
* Unemployed for a year or longer
Number of unemployed
Number of unemployed for one
year or longer
QLFS Q4:2018
21,5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q4:2008 Q4:2018
28,7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q4:2008 Q4:2018
6,1 million
people were unemployed in Q4:2018
A decrease of 70 000 q/q
9,7 million
people were unemployed in Q4:2018
A decrease of 53 000 q/q
29,5%
25,1%
SA: 27,1%
41,2%
33,3%
SA: 37,0%
Expanded Definition includes the following
- Official unemployment (searched and available)6,1 M
- Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers 2,8 M
• Have other reasons for not searching 0,8 M
Official Unemployment Rate
27,1% (-0,4 % Point Change Q/Q)
Expanded Unemployment Rate
37,0% (-0,3 % Point Change Q/Q)
Q4:2018
Q4:2018
QLFS Q3: 2018
7,1%
10,1%
21,8%
31,1%
27,5%
7,6%
12,4%
21,6%
30,4%
27,1%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q4:2018 Q3:2018
7,1%
9,1%
21,6%
29,3%
25,9%
8,2%
12,1%
20,6%
28,2%
25,1%
Male Unemployment Rate
By Population Group
Q4:2018 Q3:2018
Black women are the most vulnerable
with unemployment rate of over 30%.
7,1%
11,9%
21,9%
33,3%
29,4%
6,8%
13,0%
22,7%
33,1%
29,5%
Female Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q4:2018 Q3:2018
OFFICIAL unemployment rate
by population group and sex
BLACK WOMEN REMAIN THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
OF OVER 30%.
QLFS Q4:2018
9,3%
17,5%
27,6%
41,8%
37,3%
10,6%
17,9%
28,1%
41,1%
37,0%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Expanded unemployment
rate by population group
Q4:2018 Q3:2018
9,1%
15,0%
26,1%
38,1%
33,9%
9,8%
14,6%
25,8%
37,3%
33,3%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0%
Male expanded
unemployment rate
Q4:2018 Q3:2018
9,5%
21,6%
29,3%
45,9%
41,2%
11,6%
23,4%
30,7%
45,4%
41,2%
Female expanded unemployment
rate
Q4:2018 Q3:2018
IRRESPECTIVE OF SEX, THE BLACK AFRICAN AND COLOURED POPULATION
GROUPS REMAIN VULNERABLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET
EXPANDED unemployment rate by
population group and sex
QLFS Q4:2018
16,5%
19,3%
25,0%
25,6%
26,6%
27,1%
29,0%
32,0%
32,9%
36,1%
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0
Limpopo
Western Cape
Northern Cape
KwaZulu Natal
North West
South Africa
Gauteng
Mpumalanga
Free State
Eastern Cape
(-1,1)
(-3,4)
(+2,7)
(-0,6)
(-2,3)
(-2,0)
(+0,5)
(-0,4)
(-1,4)
( ) Q/Q Change
(-0,4)
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official Q4:2018
KZN and EC WERE THE ONLY PROVINCES THAT SHOWED AN INCREASE IN THEIR
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BETWEEN Q3:2018 AND Q4:2018
QLFS Q4:2018
Official Expanded
HIGHEST OFFICIAL & EXPANDED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RECORDED IN EC. While LP,
NW , KZN, NC and EC provinces all have more than 10% points difference between their expanded and
official unemployment rates
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official vs Expanded Q4:2018
38,8%
23,1%
38,6%
41,3%
42,9%
37,0%
33,6%
41,1%
39,3%
46,8%
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0
16,5%
19,3%
25,0%
25,6%
26,6%
27,1%
29,0%
32,0%
32,9%
36,1%
LP
WC
NC
KZN
NW
RSA
GP
MP
FS
EC
16,3% points difference
22,3% points difference
15,6% points difference
13,6% points difference
10,7% points difference
QLFS Q4:2018
UNDERSTANDING
NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE
(NEA)
QLFS
Q4:2018
QLFS Q4:2018
Student
40,6%
Discouraged work
seekers
18,4%
Home-maker
16,4%
Illness/disability; 10,2%
Too old/young to work; 9,5%
Q3:2018 to Q4:2018
% Change5 main reasons for NEA
NEA
M
M
M
M15,5 M
Quarter-on-quarter changes
Thousand
Student 36
Homemaker -21
Illness/disability 11
Too young/too old to work 60
Discouraged work seekers 108
Other -123
Up 0,3 of a
% point
No change
Q3:2018 to Q4:2018
Change in levels
Up 0,6 of a
% point
No change
Down 0,2 of
a % point
15,5 MILLION PEOPLE AGED 15 – 64 YEARS WERE NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE. This
is a increase of 70 000 q/q
Reasons why – Not economically
active (NEA)
QLFS Q4:2018
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
EMPLOYMENT
GAINS
EMPLOYMENT
LOSSES
Unemployment rate
decreased by 0,4 of a %
point to 27,1% .
Absorption rate increased by
0,2 of a percentage point
while labour force
participation rate decreased
by 0,1 of a percentage point.
Largest employment gains
were recorded in
Finance (109 000),
Private Household (65 000)
and Manufacturing (48 000).
Largest employment
losses were observed in
Community and
social services
(51 000), Transport
(30 000), Utilities
(22 000) and
Construction (21 000).
Of the 10,3 million persons
aged 15-24 years,
31,1% were not in
employment, education or
training.
Recap
Q4:2018
NEET
QLFS Q4:2018
THANK YOU
QLFS
Q4:2018

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Quarterly Labour Force Survey

  • 1. QLFS Q4:2018 Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q4:2018 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General #StatsSA
  • 2. QLFS Q4:2018 27,5% 27,1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SOUTH AFRICA’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DECREASED BY 0,4 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT TO 27,1% IN Q4 OF 2018. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between the 20% and 30% band for the last 10 years. Unemployment rate from Q1:2008 to Q4:2018
  • 3. QLFS Q4:2018 24,1% 27,1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 21,5% 27,1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Unemployment rate from Q4:2008 to Q4:2018 26,7% 27,1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS REMAINED STAGNANT YEAR ON YEAR. There has been a 0,4 of a percentage point increase between Q4:2017 and Q4:2018. 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year Q4 2008 Q4 2018 Q4 2018 Q4 2018 Q4 2013 Q4 2017
  • 4. QLFS Q4:2018 UnemployedEmployed 16,5 6,1 2,8 12,6 Other NEA Not Economically Active discouraged workseekers 15,5 million ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time, Labour force 22,7 million 38,1 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) M M M Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 27,1% M Decreased by 0,4 ppt bet Q3:2018 and Q4:2018 THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) IN Q4:2018 WAS 38,1 MILLION
  • 5. QLFS Q4:2018 2008 -38 000 q/q +149 000 q/q -70 000 q/q Other Not Economically Active Unemployed Employed LabourForce +108 000 q/q Discouraged work seekers NotEconomically Active THERE WAS AN INCREASE OF 149 000 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE IN SOUTH AFRICA (15 – 64 YEAR OLDS) BETWEEN Q3:2018 AND Q4:2018 Labour market indicators between Q1:2008 and Q4:2018 2018 Changes between Q3:2018 and Q4:2018 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 Oct-Dec2008 Apr-Jun 2009 Oct-Dec2009 Apr-Jun 2010 Oct-Dec2010 Apr-Jun 2011 Oct-Dec2011 Apr-Jun 2012 Oct-Dec2012 Apr-Jun 2013 Oct-Dec2013 Apr-Jun 2014 Oct-Dec2014 Apr-Jun 2015 Oct-Dec2015 Apr-Jun 2016 Oct-Dec2016 Apr-Jun 2017 Oct-Dec2017 Apr-Jun 2018 Oct-Dec2018
  • 7. QLFS Q4:2018 THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS INCREASED BY 149 000 TO 16,5 MILLION IN Q4:2018 Number of employed From Q4:2008 to Q4:2018 The number of employed people increased from 14,8 million in Q4:2008 to 16,5 million in Q4:2018 14,8 16,5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 15,2 16,5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 16,2 16,5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year The number of employed people increased from 16,2 million in Q4:2017 to 16,5 million in Q4:2018 Employment increased by about 1,3 million jobs from 15,2 million in Q4:2013 to 16,5 million in Q4:2018 Q4:2008 Q4:2018 Q4:2013 Q4:2018 Q4:2017 Q4:2018 Increase of 1,7 million Increase of 1,3 million Increase of 300 thousand
  • 8. QLFS Q4:2018 46,2% 43,3% 58,8% 59,4% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Labour force participation rate Employed / population ratio (Absorption) THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE INCREASED BY 0,6 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT FROM 58,8% IN Q4:2008 TO 59,4% IN Q4:2018 Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed. Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. 12,6 % Points difference 16,1 % Points difference
  • 9. QLFS Q4:2018 Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q3:2018 to Q4:2018 LABOUR MARKET RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON EDUCATION LEVEL Labour market rates by education level, Q4:2018 15,9% 6,7% 28,0% 32,0% 27,1% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 72,2% 82,8% 49,9% 33,3% 43,3% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 85,9% 88,8% 69,3% 49,0% 59,4% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 -0,4 +0,1 -1,4 +0,2 -1,0 +0,2 -0,1 +1,2 -0,8 +1,2 -0,1 -0,1 +0,3 -0,6 +0,4
  • 10. QLFS Q4:2018 54,7% 33,0% 22,0% 15,0% 10,0% 27,5% - 15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 25,1% 74,2% 80,7% 74,9% 45,0% 59,5% - 15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 11,4% 49,7% 63,0% 63,6% 40,4% 43,1% - 15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 0,2 -1,1 0,0 -1,0 +1,9 -0,1 +1,1 +0,3 +0,6 -0,8 +0,1 +0,5 +0,4 -0,1 -0,7 Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q3:2018 to Q4:2018 Labour market rates by age group, Q4:2018 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 IS DOUBLE THAT OF THE 45-54 YEAR OLDS.
  • 11. QLFS Q4:2018 15 – 24 years 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years Change: Percentage points Q3:2018 to Q4:2018 Unemployment rate by education level and age group, Q4:2018 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH IS HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF EDUCATION LEVEL 48,9% 19,5% 54,0% 58,3% 54,7% Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 21,2% 10,5% 31,6% 40,1% 33,0% 9,3% 4,4% 17,1% 22,7% 17,9% +1,9 +0,4 +3,4 -8,2 +3,7 +1,1 -0,1 -1,9 -3,1 -0,9 +0,5 -0,7 -0,4 0,0 -0,3
  • 12. QLFS Q4:2018 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) QLFS Q4:2018
  • 13. QLFS Q4:2018 EducationWork NEET Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population ? WHAT IS (NEET) NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING?
  • 14. QLFS Q4:2018 26,2% 28,8% 33,3% 33,4% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 2017:Q4 2018:Q4 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-24 years) by sex APPROXIMATELY 3,2 MILLION (31,1%) OUT OF 10,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,4 percentage points in Q4:2018 compared to Q4:2017. FEMALE NEET Up by 0,1 of a percentage point MALE NEET Up by 2,6 percentage points 15-24 YEARS
  • 15. QLFS Q4:2018 25,9% 26,5% 28,7% 29,8% 30,6% 31,1% 32,8% 33,8% 35,4% 37,1% LP WC FS GP MP RSA NW KZN NC EC (-2,8) (+4,1) (+2,9) (-1,2) (+1,4) (+2,1) (+1,5) (-1,2) (-1,6) (+0,9) ( ) Y/Y Change Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q4:2017 – Q4:2018) EC RECORDED THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING IN Q4: 2018.
  • 16. QLFS Q4:2018 33,5% 34,9% 43,3% 42,9% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-34 years) by sex APPROXIMATELY 7,9 MILLION (38,9%) OUT OF 20,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,5 of a percentage point y/y. Female NEET Down by 0,4 of a percentage point Male NEET Up by 1,3 percentage point 15-34 YEARS
  • 17. QLFS Q4:2018 Provincial NEET rate (Year - on -Year Change Q4:2017 – Q4:2018) THE EC PROVINCE HAD THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34 YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 46,6%. The rate increased by 3,1 percentage points year-on-year. 29,9% 36,0% 37,3% 38,1% 38,8% 38,9% 40,9% 42,2% 43,2% 46,6% WC GP LP FS MP RSA NW KZN NC EC ( ) Y/Y Change (+3,1) (+1,0) (+1,1) (-0,7) (+0,5) (+1,2) (+0,8) (+0,9) (-1,3) (-0,5)
  • 19. QLFS Q4:2018 Agriculture Private households Formal Sector (Non agricultural) Informal Sector (Non agricultural) (11,3 million jobs) (3,0 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs)(849 thousand jobs) decreased byincreased by increased by increased by THE NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED GREW BY 149 000IN Q4:2018 TO 16,5 MILLION. Q/QQ/Q Q/QQ/Q 92 000 7 000 65 00015 000
  • 20. QLFS Q4:2018 Other Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services Employment shares, Q4:2018 0,1% 0,8% 2,6% 5,1% 5,8% 8,1% 9,0% 10,7% 15,8% 20,1% 21,9% Other Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Community and social services Employment shares, Q1:2018 Share of Nominal GDP (Q3:2018) 24% 15% 20% 14% 4% 10% 3% 8% 4% CONSTRUCTION, TRADE AND AGRICULTURE HAVE HIGHER EMPLOYMENT SHARES RELATIVE TO THEIR GDP CONTRIBUTION Employment and GDP share per industry
  • 21. QLFS Q4:2018 -51 -30 -22 -21 7 14 31 48 65 109 Services Transport Utilities Construction Agriculture Trade Mining Manufacturing Private hholds Finance Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000) -67 -36 -24 -16 0 27 62 79 91 238 Services Transport Manufacturing Utilities Agriculture Mining Private hholds Trade Construction Finance Year-on-year change (‘000) THE BIGGEST QUARTER-ON-QUARTER EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE RECORDED IN FINANCE, PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Employment changes by industry
  • 22. QLFS Q4:2018 109 000 Mainly driven by gains in: v Other business activities. v Computer and related activities Finance ManufacturingPrivate households Mainly driven by gains in: Manufacturing of v Textiles, clothing and leather goods v Furniture; manufacturing NEC 48 00065 000 Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE FINANCE, PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains R Trade 14 000 Q/Q Mining 31 000 Q/Q Mainly driven by gains in : v Mining and quarrying NEC. v Mining of gold and uranium ore Mainly driven by gains in : v Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles
  • 23. QLFS Q4:2018 - 51 000 Q/Q Q/Q - 22 000 Q/Q Services UtilitiesTransport Mainly driven by losses in: v Production, collection and distribution of electricity v Collection, purification and distribution of water Mainly driven by losses in: v Other land transport v Telecommunication - 30 000 EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE SERVICES, TRANSPORT AND UTILITIES INDUSTRIES Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses Mainly driven by losses in: v Education v Other community, social and personal services v Health and social work
  • 24. QLFS Q4:2018 0,4% 5,3% 6,2% 8,4% 8,7% 8,9% 10,3% 12,5% 16,3% 22,9% Skilled agriculture Professional Domestic worker Plant and machine… Manager Technician Clerk Craft and related trade Sales and services Elementary 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 Elementary and domestic work occupations Employment share by occupation, Q4:2018 CLOSE TO A THIRD (29,1%) OF ALL PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN Q4:2018 WERE EMPLOYED IN ELEMENTARY AND DOMESTIC WORK OCCUPATIONS
  • 25. QLFS Q4:2018 2,4M 3,0M 10,2M 11,3M 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Million Informal sector employment Formal sector employment Informal sector employment has increased from 2,4 million in Q4:2008 to 3,0 million in Q4:2018 Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend, increasing from 10,2 million in Q4:2008 to 11,3 million in Q4:2018 THE FORMAL SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Q4:2008 Q4:2018
  • 27. QLFS Q4:2018 4,0M 6,1M 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 28,9%71,1% Long Term Unemployed* Short Term Unemployed 39,2%61,8% Q4 2008 Q4 2018 THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE IN SOUTH AFRICA INCREASED FROM 4,0 MILLION IN Q4:2008 TO 6,1 MILLION IN Q4:2018. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 61,8% in Q4:2008 to 71,1% in Q4:2018 * Unemployed for a year or longer Number of unemployed Number of unemployed for one year or longer
  • 28. QLFS Q4:2018 21,5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q4:2008 Q4:2018 28,7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q4:2008 Q4:2018 6,1 million people were unemployed in Q4:2018 A decrease of 70 000 q/q 9,7 million people were unemployed in Q4:2018 A decrease of 53 000 q/q 29,5% 25,1% SA: 27,1% 41,2% 33,3% SA: 37,0% Expanded Definition includes the following - Official unemployment (searched and available)6,1 M - Available to work but are/or • Discouraged work-seekers 2,8 M • Have other reasons for not searching 0,8 M Official Unemployment Rate 27,1% (-0,4 % Point Change Q/Q) Expanded Unemployment Rate 37,0% (-0,3 % Point Change Q/Q) Q4:2018 Q4:2018
  • 29. QLFS Q3: 2018 7,1% 10,1% 21,8% 31,1% 27,5% 7,6% 12,4% 21,6% 30,4% 27,1% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q4:2018 Q3:2018 7,1% 9,1% 21,6% 29,3% 25,9% 8,2% 12,1% 20,6% 28,2% 25,1% Male Unemployment Rate By Population Group Q4:2018 Q3:2018 Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%. 7,1% 11,9% 21,9% 33,3% 29,4% 6,8% 13,0% 22,7% 33,1% 29,5% Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q4:2018 Q3:2018 OFFICIAL unemployment rate by population group and sex BLACK WOMEN REMAIN THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF OVER 30%.
  • 30. QLFS Q4:2018 9,3% 17,5% 27,6% 41,8% 37,3% 10,6% 17,9% 28,1% 41,1% 37,0% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Expanded unemployment rate by population group Q4:2018 Q3:2018 9,1% 15,0% 26,1% 38,1% 33,9% 9,8% 14,6% 25,8% 37,3% 33,3% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% Male expanded unemployment rate Q4:2018 Q3:2018 9,5% 21,6% 29,3% 45,9% 41,2% 11,6% 23,4% 30,7% 45,4% 41,2% Female expanded unemployment rate Q4:2018 Q3:2018 IRRESPECTIVE OF SEX, THE BLACK AFRICAN AND COLOURED POPULATION GROUPS REMAIN VULNERABLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET EXPANDED unemployment rate by population group and sex
  • 31. QLFS Q4:2018 16,5% 19,3% 25,0% 25,6% 26,6% 27,1% 29,0% 32,0% 32,9% 36,1% 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 Limpopo Western Cape Northern Cape KwaZulu Natal North West South Africa Gauteng Mpumalanga Free State Eastern Cape (-1,1) (-3,4) (+2,7) (-0,6) (-2,3) (-2,0) (+0,5) (-0,4) (-1,4) ( ) Q/Q Change (-0,4) Provincial unemployment rate: Official Q4:2018 KZN and EC WERE THE ONLY PROVINCES THAT SHOWED AN INCREASE IN THEIR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BETWEEN Q3:2018 AND Q4:2018
  • 32. QLFS Q4:2018 Official Expanded HIGHEST OFFICIAL & EXPANDED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RECORDED IN EC. While LP, NW , KZN, NC and EC provinces all have more than 10% points difference between their expanded and official unemployment rates Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q4:2018 38,8% 23,1% 38,6% 41,3% 42,9% 37,0% 33,6% 41,1% 39,3% 46,8% 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 16,5% 19,3% 25,0% 25,6% 26,6% 27,1% 29,0% 32,0% 32,9% 36,1% LP WC NC KZN NW RSA GP MP FS EC 16,3% points difference 22,3% points difference 15,6% points difference 13,6% points difference 10,7% points difference
  • 34. QLFS Q4:2018 Student 40,6% Discouraged work seekers 18,4% Home-maker 16,4% Illness/disability; 10,2% Too old/young to work; 9,5% Q3:2018 to Q4:2018 % Change5 main reasons for NEA NEA M M M M15,5 M Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student 36 Homemaker -21 Illness/disability 11 Too young/too old to work 60 Discouraged work seekers 108 Other -123 Up 0,3 of a % point No change Q3:2018 to Q4:2018 Change in levels Up 0,6 of a % point No change Down 0,2 of a % point 15,5 MILLION PEOPLE AGED 15 – 64 YEARS WERE NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE. This is a increase of 70 000 q/q Reasons why – Not economically active (NEA)
  • 35. QLFS Q4:2018 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES Unemployment rate decreased by 0,4 of a % point to 27,1% . Absorption rate increased by 0,2 of a percentage point while labour force participation rate decreased by 0,1 of a percentage point. Largest employment gains were recorded in Finance (109 000), Private Household (65 000) and Manufacturing (48 000). Largest employment losses were observed in Community and social services (51 000), Transport (30 000), Utilities (22 000) and Construction (21 000). Of the 10,3 million persons aged 15-24 years, 31,1% were not in employment, education or training. Recap Q4:2018 NEET